DraftKings Market Exploitation: Week 5
This column is dedicated to spotting the clearest values among players who have seen their DraftKings price drop the most from one week to the next. When a player’s market changes radically, we look to exploit it.
I’ll use a variety of tools to help sift through players whose DFS salaries have plummeted, including RotoGrinders’ NFL Market Watch tool — an invaluable piece for those looking to exploit inefficiencies and take down the week’s biggest DraftKings tournaments.
We’re either going to be right alone or wrong alone with many of these players, and that’s precisely the point. Now let’s get into this week’s plays begging for market exploitation
Quarterbacks
Blake Bortles ($5,200) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I’m not exactly sure what Bortles did to earn a $600 decrease in DraftKings salary after his first start, but we’ll take it and run. He’s at home in a much more favorable matchup this week against a Pittsburgh coverage unit that shouldn’t scare anyone. Pittsburgh is ranked a mediocre 18th according to RotoGrinders’ QB vs. Defense tool.
The Jacksonville rookie is pretty close to free on DraftKings, available for less than the vaunted Christian Ponder. His 55 rushing yards through six quarters of action is a hopeful sign that he’ll give us running production here and there, and his .48 fantasy points per attempt (FPAT) demonstrated nice efficiency.
Andy Dalton ($6,800) at New England Patriots
Dalton, after a $700 price tag plunge during his bye week, is a fairly cheap option against a New England secondary that allowed 248 yards and three scores to Alex Smith last week. The Patriots had feasted on some of the league’s worst signal callers before that Monday night massacre.
Dalton’s .44 FPAT isn’t great – it isn’t bad either – and it’s worth noting that he averages 1.96 touchdown passes (and 22.2 fantasy points) in Bengals wins. Cincy is favored to beat the Pats in New England.
Running Backs
Fred Jackson ($4,500) at Detroit Lions
Why would I run FJax headlong into that fierce Detroit run defense? Because I’m banking on Jackson to maintain his involvement in the Buffalo passing game as the Bills do their best to keep pace with a Detroit offense that looked decent even without Calvin Johnson last week.
Jackson has been Buffalo’s runner of choice when trailing, while C.J. Spiller has the edge on snaps when the team is ahead or tied. I think it’s safe to say Buffalo will struggle to keep pace in this one. Vegas has them pegged as a touchdown underdog.
Only Matt Forte has more targets among running back than Jackson does through four weeks. FJax’s DraftKings salary dipped by $400 after Week 4. There are 35 backs priced ahead of him this week.
Rashad Jennings ($5,500) vs. Atlanta Falcons
It feels a little like cheating to include Jennings in this space, but after an eye-popping DraftKings price drop of $1,000 after a lackluster Week 4 performance, I can’t exclude him from this list.
The Falcons, when adjusted for strength of schedule, are giving up 40.2 fantasy points per game to opposing backs. That’s ungodly. In two road games, Atlanta has been gouged to the tune of 377 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the ground.
Jennings, if he gets 20 touches in this one (he will), will be a candidate for top-5 Week 5 running back numbers.
Wide Receivers
Jordan Matthews ($3,500) vs. St. Louis Rams
Matthews was among the many Eagles to see their daily fantasy salaries go into freefall after Week 4’s offensive abomination in San Francisco. The folks at DraftKings dropped Matthews’ price tag by $2,200.
Matthews, who has seen 5.4 targets per contest since Week 2, gets his crack at a Rams’ defense that allows 8.1 yards per pass attempt – the third worst mark in the NFL. Matthews is running about 30 pass routes per game, as his involvement in Chip Kelly’s offense continues to grow. He’s basically free this week and he’s playing against a secondary that doesn’t scare anyone.
Julian Edelman ($5,700) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Edelman, for once, wasn’t the PPR cheat code in Week 4 we’ve come to know and love over the past year. The good part: Edelman still saw nine targets as the Patriots were blown out by the Chiefs on Monday night.
Only six receivers have more targets than Edelman through the season’s first four weeks. His DraftKings salary fell by $800, making him the site’s 22nd priciest wide receiver. He’s been top-12 in price for most of the first four weeks.
The Bengals’ secondary is no joke, though they’ve given up 14.6 receptions to receivers in their first three games. With New England expected to turn to a quick-hitting passing attack as the offensive line collapses before our very eyes, I think Edelman is a prime candidate for investment while there’s blood in his proverbial streets.
Tight End
Owen Daniels ($3,300) at Indianapolis Colts
Don’t let Daniels’ so-so Week 4 stat line dissuade you from playing the old guy this week in DraftKings tournaments. His price tag plunged by $800 after catching four passes for 43 yards in Week 4 against Carolina.
Gary Kubiak’s tight ends are always worth a look, especially against a team (Indy) that has allowed 12.5 fantasy points to tight ends this season. Remove the Colts’ Week 3 game against Jacksonville and Indianapolis is allowing 94 yards and 1.3 touchdowns to opposing tight ends. The unit is ranked 29th according to RotoGrinders’ Defense vs. TE tool.
The Colts, after losing safety LaRon Landry to a suspension this week, could be even more generous to tight ends going forward. Daniels could be a safe option with fine and dandy upside in this one.