DraftKings MLB Expert Survey: Thursday, July 12th

Want to know who Notorious is definitely paying up for in MLB DFS today? Wondering which value play STLCardinals84 is eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy sports experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup building decisions for tonight’s contests. NOTE: Surveys for early slates will be posted when there are four or more early games.

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Thursday, July 12th

Who is your favorite hitter for cash games?

STLCardinals84: Max Muncy
meansy53: Randal Grichuk
Stevietpfl: Steve Pearce
TheSeige: Andrew Toles

Who is your favorite hitter for tournaments?

STLCardinals84: Joc Pederson
meansy53: J.D. Martinez
Stevietpfl: Max Muncy
TheSeige: Max Muncy

Who is your favorite pitcher for cash games?

STLCardinals84: Max Scherzer
meansy53: Max Scherzer
Stevietpfl: Max Scherzer
TheSeige: Max Scherzer

Who is your favorite pitcher for tournaments?

STLCardinals84: Max Scherzer
meansy53: Max Scherzer
Stevietpfl: Luis Severino
TheSeige: Max Scherzer

Who is your favorite cheap pitcher for cash games?

STLCardinals84: Jameson Taillon
meansy53: Jameson Taillon
Stevietpfl: Ross Stripling
TheSeige: Ross Stripling

Who is your favorite cheap pitcher for tournaments?

STLCardinals84: David Price
meansy53: Steven Matz
Stevietpfl: Ross Stripling
TheSeige: Steven Matz

Who is your favorite salary saver on the board?

STLCardinals84: Josh Harrison
meansy53: David Freese
Stevietpfl: Josh Harrison
TheSeige: Andrew Toles

Who is your top contrarian play on the board?

STLCardinals84: Corey Kluber
meansy53: Michael Taylor
Stevietpfl: Nelson Cruz
TheSeige: Luis Severino

Which player are you most afraid of having little to no exposure to?

STLCardinals84: Mike Trout
meansy53: Mike Trout
Stevietpfl: Max Scherzer
TheSeige: Mike Trout

Which high-priced pitcher will you have little to no exposure to in tournaments?

STLCardinals84: Luis Severino
meansy53: James Paxton
Stevietpfl: Corey Kluber
TheSeige: Ross Stripling

Which high-priced hitter will you have little to no exposure to in tournaments?

STLCardinals84: Bryce Harper
meansy53: Wil Myers
Stevietpfl: Aaron Judge
TheSeige: Giancarlo Stanton

What’s your sneaky home run call of the day?

STLCardinals84: Nelson Cruz
meansy53: Randal Grichuk
Stevietpfl: Teoscar Hernandez
TheSeige: Devon Travis

What’s your favorite overall team stack?

STLCardinals84: LAD
meansy53: BOS
Stevietpfl: LAD
TheSeige: LAD

What’s your favorite sneaky team stack?

STLCardinals84: PIT
meansy53: MIL
Stevietpfl: TOR
TheSeige: TOR

Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?

STLCardinals84: After a strong start to the season, we have seen some sizable regression from Tyson Ross over the last month and a half, particularly against left-handed batters. He is now allowing a .381 wOBA to LHBs this season, and lefties are posting a 30% line drive rate against him for the year. Almost all of the Dodgers’ lefties have been raking since the beginning of June, making this a very difficult matchup for a scuffling pitcher.

meansy53: According to the RotoGrinders Starting Lineups page, only one of the 14 teams on the Main Slate has an implied run total of 4.5 or higher. That is the Boston Red Sox at 5.35.

Stevietpfl: The projected starters for the Padres have a .143 ISO with a .301 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They also have a 23.5% strikeout rate and they hit a lot of groundballs. Stripling has been great this season, as he comes in with a 2.90 xFIP and a 28.7% strikeout rate. He’s pitching ahead 61.4% of the time and continues to have a very low walk rate.

TheSeige: Seven starters have 25% K rates on this small slate, so picking the right pitchers will be vital to success.

What is your hot take of the day?

STLCardinals84: Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, and Cody Bellinger combine to hit four home runs against the Padres.

meansy53: J.D. Martinez hits a dinger in his first two at-bats off of J.A. Happ.

Stevietpfl: Ross Stripling is the best point-per-dollar pitcher on the slate.

TheSeige: Andrew Toles is on the winning Dodgers stack.

Who is your top overall pitcher (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

STLCardinals84: Max Scherzer – We have a surprisingly large number of aces on tonight’s slate for it being a seven game docket, but Scherzer tops the list. He draws a favorable matchup against a Mets squad that has been rolling out a glorified Triple-A lineup on a nightly basis, and it’s difficult to see the Mets denting the scoreboard much against a pitcher that owns a 35% strikeout rate and nearly 17% swinging strike rate. There’s immense upside and a great element of safety here.

meansy53: Max Scherzer – With so much good pitching on this slate, that means that we won’t have many good bats to spend on by default. Accordingly, I will look to lock in the guaranteed points at pitcher, and that all starts with Mad Max. Just like STLCards said, the lineups the Mets have been rolling out lately have been awful. I mean, Jose Reyes is their everyday third baseman for the time being. That should tell you all you need to know. Hopefully there are enough good pitching options on this slate that we don’t have to worry too much about ownership on Max either.

Stevietpfl: Ross Stripling – If you read above, you can read why I love Stripling tonight. We don’t have a ton of value bats on this slate, and Stripling has a ton of upside in this spot. With the Padres’ lack of power and high strikeout rate, I’m taking the discount.

TheSeige: Max Scherzer – When you combine the best pitcher in MLB with a 35% strikeout rate, with one of the coldest offenses in baseball with a great ump, you don’t get cute. Just play Scherzer.

Who is your top overall hitter (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

STLCardinals84: Joc Pederson – It’s very close among all the Dodgers’ left-handed bats, but I’ll side with the slight discount that you get with Pederson over the likes of Muncy and Bellinger. I already touched on the struggles of Tyson Ross against left-handed bats, and Pederson owns a .390 wOBA and .310 ISO against RHP this year to go along with a 44% hard contact rate — and that’s after a slow start to the year. Fire Pederson up with confidence in all formats as a one-off play or as part of a GPP stack of Dodgers.

meansy53: J.D. Martinez – Here are JDM’s numbers against LHP since the start of 2017 according to PlateIQ: .383 ISO, .480 wOBA, and .625 CXwOBA. Come on! You have one of the top hitters on the slate at what is going to be hilariously low ownership since no one will be able to fit him in with all of the high-end pitching. And while J.A. Happ is decent in his own right, he has been giving up 45% flyballs to righties this season. Add in the fact that he throws the third most fastballs of any starter in the league (a pitch JDM crushes), and I feel like we are all but guaranteed a JDM dong tonight.

Stevietpfl: Max Muncy – Muncy is crushing right-handed pitching this season and draws a great matchup tonight against Tyson Ross. Muncy has a .338 ISO with a .550 CXwOBA and a 49.5% hard-hit rate against righties this season, though the most impressive aspect of his season is his average exit velocity. I think Muncy is the top hitter on the top stack tonight.

TheSeige: Andrew TolesJoc Pederson is cold at the plate, so look for Roberts to shake things up and move Toles to the top. He has a limited sample size this year but has been solid in past MLB experience. More importantly, Toles has major speed and draws a date with Tyson Ross, who can’t hold anyone on – Toles has sneaky stolen base upside to go along with being on the best stack of the day.

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  • Kylerusher

    So seige you say don’t get cute play scherzer and then you say you will have little to no exposure in gpp? Is that a misprint?

  • theseige

    • 303

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #62

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    • 2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • x2

      2016 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    @Kylerusher said...

    So seige you say don’t get cute play scherzer and then you say you will have little to no exposure in gpp? Is that a misprint?

    Hey total brain freeze on my part, was originally going to be a fade then extra news that came in to make him a lock for me

    Have submitted answer change… sorry for the delay

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