DraftKings NFL Expert Survey: Week 11
Want to know who Notorious is definitely paying up for in NFL DFS this week? Wondering which value play STLCardinals84 is eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy sports experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup building decisions for this week’s contests.
EDITOR’S NOTE – Sterling Shepard was a late addition to the injury report with an illness and is unlikely to play.
|#||NFL Expert Survey Questions (Week 11)||Notorious||STLCardinals84||JMToWin||Stevietpfl||Meansy53||TheSeige|
|1||Who is your must-play stud in cash games?||Kareem Hunt||Kareem Hunt||Sterling Shepard||Sterling Shepard||Tom Brady||Tom Brady|
|2||Who is your must-play stud in tournaments?||Todd Gurley||Mike Evans||DeAndre Hopkins||Todd Gurley||Kareem Hunt||Mike Evans|
|3||Who is your favorite salary saver on the board?||Chris Thompson||Chris Thompson||Orleans Darkwa||Rex Burkhead||Rex Burkhead||Rex Burkhead|
|4||Which stud play are you fading in tournaments?||Leonard Fournette||LeSean McCoy||Michael Thomas||Leonard Fournette||Todd Gurley||Leonard Fournette|
|5||Who’s your top contrarian play on the board?||Emmanuel Sanders||Chris Thompson||Dede Westbrook||Damien Williams||Chris Thompson||Dede Westbrook|
|6||Which low-priced chalk player are you most likely to fade?||Kenyan Drake||Kenyan Drake||Kenyan Drake||Jamaal Williams||Kenyan Drake||Kenyan Drake|
|7||Which low-priced chalk player are you most likely to have heavy exposure to?||Sterling Shepard||Rex Burkhead||Sterling Shepard||Sterling Shepard||Rex Burkhead||Rex Burkhead|
|8||Which player are you afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?||Saints RBs||Mark Ingram||Travis Kelce||Kareem Hunt||Todd Gurley||Travis Kelce|
|9||Which skill position players (if any) are you targeting versus an elite defense?||Todd Gurley||Adam Thielen||Todd Gurley||Todd Gurley||Adam Thielen||Todd Gurley|
|10||Which NFL team are you targeting players from the most?||NE||PIT||NE||NE||NE||NE|
|11||Which NFL team are you looking to avoid?||CLE||CLE||CLE||CIN||CLE||CLE|
|12||What’s the best position to spend up on this week?||TE||TE||TE||TE||QB||QB|
|13||What’s the best position to save salary on this week?||RB||RB||RB||WR||RB||WR|
|14||Which game has sneaky shootout potential this week?||TB/MIA||KC/NYG||LAR/MIN||LAR/MIN||MIA/TB||LAR/MIN|
|15||Which position will you have the most exposure to in FLEX?||RB||RB||TE||RB||RB||WR|
What is your favorite correlation of the week and why?
Notorious: NE & OAK passing games – Oakland has struggled to run the ball all season and we know that a lot of the Patriots’ RB production comes from the passing game. This sets up for a great game to target one of the quarterbacks and load up on pass catchers from both sides of the ball.
STLCardinals84: Ryan Fitzpatrick and Mike Evans – Fitzpatrick burned the whole world last week, and that’s music to my ears in GPP formats. His ownership is going to be minuscule compared to what it was a week ago, and he draws a matchup with a Dolphins defense that has packed it in for the year. Combine that with Mike Evans return from suspension, and you have all the makings of upsde at low ownership. Yes, please!
JMToWin: Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski – Especially with people typically looking to avoid the top-priced QB on the slate, and with Kelce and Gronk priced in the same range (and in equally good spots), I expect ownership on this stack to be lower than the upside says it should be. The Patriots rank first in pass offense DVOA and third in yards per pass attempt. The Raiders rank 32nd in pass defense DVOA and 28th in yards allowed per pass attempt. Giddy up!
Stevietpfl: Rex Burkhead and Michael Crabtree – I want a ton of exposure to this game, and Burkhead‘s price opens up a lot of salary. Oakland is one of the worst teams in the league at defending pass catching backs and Burkhead can catch and get rushing workload as well. Oakland is coming off a bye and should be throwing a lot in this game.
TheSeige: Melvin Gordon and Chargers – With the Bills announcing Peterman as the starter, the game flow looks really good for a Chargers ground and pound game between the tackles, which fits into Gordon’s portfolio more than Ekeler.
Meansy53: Meansy53: Kareem Hunt and Chiefs D/ST – The Chiefs are -10.5 going on the road to face the Giants in what should set up as a favorable game script for Kareem Hunt. The Giants have allowed the 10th most DraftKings points per game to running backs on the season, so perhaps this is the game we see some positive touchdown regression for Hunt.
Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?
Notorious: At home this season, Tyreek Hill is averaging four catches and 37 yards per game with zero touchdowns. On the road, he is averaging nearly five catches for over 100 yards from scrimmage and he’s scored four touchdowns.
STLCardinals84: The Giants have allowed a touchdown catch to a tight end in every single game this season. That is quite remarkable nine games into the year. If Garrett Celek can break a long touchdown against this defense, just imagine what Travis Kelce can do.
JMToWin: Orleans Darkwa has averaged 17 touches per game over the Giants’ last four contests, and touched the ball 16 times last week with all four backs healthy (Paul Perkins played only on special teams). Darkwa also has eight targets (and eight catches) across his last four games. While game flow is a concern, Darkwa is a great salary saver in tourneys – at low ownership – against a Chiefs team that ranks 32nd in run defense DVOA and 31st in yards allowed per rush attempt.
Stevietpfl: Sean Lee is the number one run stopper in the NFL this season and without him the Cowboys are vulnerable in the middle of the field. Then on the offensive side without Tyron Smith at left tackle last week, the Cowboys gave up eight sacks, including six given up by Smith’s backups.
TheSeige: The Patriots have elected to train for this week’s game in Mexico City (altitude: 7,280 ft) in Colorado Springs at the Air Force Academy (6.621 feet), while the Raiders elected to stay in Oakland (43 feet). I think you’ll see the Patriots use this to their advantage and play this game fast to tire out Oakland.
Meansy53: Rex Burkhead’s snap count has been trending up over the past three games, culminating in him getting 51% of the snaps in Week 10. Unsurprisingly, that has resulted in more touches as well (7, 11, 13). He is viable in all formats on DraftKings.
What’s your hot take of the week?
Notorious: Chris Thompson goes over 150 yards and finds the endzone.
Stevietpfl: Rex Burkhead is a top 5 point per dollar RB.
TheSeige: Patriots beat Raiders by 21+
Meansy53: The Minnesota defense holds Todd Gurley below 50 total yards.
Who will you be most overweight on compared to the field and why?
Notorious: Chris Thompson – With Rob Kelley out and with the Redskins likely playing from behind all game, this sets up as a perfect spot for Thompson. I expect him to get close to ten targets in addition to a number of carries. If he can find the endzone, he will end up being one of the best point per dollar plays of the week.
STLCardinals84: Chris Thompson – He is dirt cheap on DraftKings, the Saints struggle with pass catching running backs, and Rob Kelley is out. That’s a fantastic trifecta, and the Redskins will utilize him extensively. He’s a great pick in GPPs, and I will be doing backflips if his ownership is anywhere near the 12% range where we currently have him projected.
JMToWin: Sterling Shepard – By the end of my time on Premium Chat this last Sunday morning, I resorted to answering “Shepard or ____” questions by saying, “Please play Shepard this week.” The same holds true this week, as Shepard is one of only two viable targets on a team that throws the ball at the second-highest rate in the NFL. The matchup is extraordinary, the game script should play to heavy volume again, and with the slight hike in price, his ownership will likely drop. He remains massively underpriced for his talent, workload, and matchup.
Stevietpfl: Rex Burkhead – He’s obviously filled up my Expert Survey this week, but this is the same spot that I loved Chris Thompson a few weeks ago. Burkhead played over 50% of the snaps and out-snapped White 21 to 11.
TheSeige: Patriots – Best way to expose a team who hasn’t practiced in altitude is to play fast and get them fatigued. Look for the Pats to play super fast to tire out the Raiders defense.
Meansy53: Tom Brady – The Patriots have a team total of 30 in a matchup against Oakland, a team that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA. In addition to that, the price tag is slightly depressed across the industry. This has all of the makings of at least a three or four touchdown game from Brady.
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