DraftKings + FanDuel PGA DFS Player Salary Analysis: Charles Schwab Challenge
There are few things that I love more in life than sweating DFS golf, and a three-month layoff is going to make the return of the PGA Tour that much sweeter.
Given the amount of interest for this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge, we have massive DFS tournaments across the industry. DraftKings is rolling out a Millionaire Maker with a $20 buy-in as well as a 2,000-man, $555 buy-in with a $250,000 first-place prize.
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Before we get into the picks, let’s quickly take a look at the course hosting the Charles Schwab Challenge. As you can see from the table below, there are only two par fives on the scorecard. The fairways are tough to hit here and many will opt to club down off the tee. The greens feature bentgrass and are statistically tough to hit, which places a big emphasis on each golfer’s short game. Essentially, this is the polar opposite of a bomber’s track. Knowing this will help as we proceed with our DFS analysis for the Charles Schwab Challenge.
DraftKings + FanDuel DFS Salary Analysis for the Charles Schwab Challenge
Webb Simpson — $9,800 DK / $11,400 FD
It’s awfully tempting to start lineups with Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, or Justin Thomas, especially with all of the strong plays in the $7,000 range on DraftKings and the $9,000 range on FanDuel. However, Colonial Country Club isn’t a course where you need to hit a ton of drivers and that’s the biggest weapon for McIlroy, Rahm, and Thomas. They are talented enough that they could easily come out and win, but Simpson is a better course fit and comes with a significant discount.
With no recent form to quote, we have to rely on mid to long-term form. Outside of McIlroy, I’m not sure there’s another golfer in the world that’s had a higher floor than Simpson over the last year of play. During that stretch, he’s made 14 starts without missing a cut. Even more impressive, he’s only finished outside of the top 30 one time and has a win, three seconds, and a third.
Simpson is a strong fit for the course his driver is the biggest weakness in his bag. He hits a lot of fairways, he just doesn’t have the length that most stars in the game have. Colonial is a second shot golf course where you have to be dialed in with your irons, be strong around the green, and get hot with the putter. If Jordan Spieth and Kevin Na play well here on a regular basis, this is a track where Webb can win.
Sungjae Im – $9,300 DK / $11,200 FD
There are a number of factors I like to look at each week when I begin my DFS golf analysis — statistics, short-term form, long-term form, course fit, odds, and course history to name a few. We haven’t seen any of these golfers in action in nearly three months, so we have no lead-in form. We have to do our best to narrow down the player pool to golfers we think were out there grinding during this break. Make no mistake about it,
I’m not sure if this is still the case, but early in the season Im didn’t own a house. He would rent houses and/or stay with friends for every tournament. With no home base, he decided to play in as many tournaments as possible. For reference, he has played in 25 PGA Tour events in the last year. And that’s on top of a few events played on other tours. I bring all of this up because we have to assume he’s been working on his game over the last three months.
Even if you don’t buy into the grinder narrative, Im is a still a strong option based on everything else. Before the season started, his peers viewed him as a breakout candidate and so far, so good. He won the Honda Classic and finished third at both the Zozo Championship and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He gains strokes in all facets of his game, which should help this week at the Charles Schwab Challenge and on a course like Colonial CC that puts so much pressure on your short game.
Billy Horschel — $7,400 DK / $9,600 FD
For whatever reason, Horschel gets lumped into a group of golfers where the masses only expect them to play well in Florida. Sure, he lives there and is a Florida Gator, but he’s played well on courses all around the world. In fact, his last 10 top 10 finishes have come on courses outside of Florida. Even more, his putting splits between Bermuda (+0.31 SGP per round) and Bentgrass (+0.21 SGP per round) are eerily similar.
When you look at his individual strokes gained statistics, they are all over the map. Some weeks he is an elite ball striker, while other weeks he has an elite short game. This is both a blessing and a curse — when he gains strokes everywhere, he contends. When he loses strokes everywhere, he misses cuts. He seems to like Colonial, as he’s posted finishes of T34 (2017) and T19 (2019) in his last two starts here. There’s some value on Horschel with a DFS salary of $7,400 on DraftKings.
Brian Harman — $7,200 DK / $8,300 FD
There are a handful of golfers that seem to pop in my PGA model each and every week. When we have less than driver tracks, Harman always vaults up to the top of my point-per-dollar rankings. For nearly a year (July 2018 through May 2019), he had to rely on his short game because his ball striking was so poor. Since then, he has gained strokes tee to green in 18 of 21 events.
Historically, Harman has played well at the same courses each and every year. Even when he’s in good or bad form, he’ll play well at the tracks he likes and struggle at the ones he doesn’t. This is great news for us, as he hasn’t finished worse than T31 here in any of the last five years at the site of this year’s Charles Schwab Challenge. He’s a safe bet to make the cut and would easily pay off his cheap DFS salary at both DraftKings and Fanduel if he’s able to finish in the top 25 again.
More DFS Analysis for the Charles Schwab Challenge
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