FREE - DraftKings PGA Expert Survey: The Genesis Invitational
Want to know who Notorious is definitely paying up for in DraftKings PGA DFS this week? Wondering which value play STLCardinals84 is eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy sports experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup building decisions for this week’s tournament.
The Genesis Invitational
Who is your favorite golfer for cash games?
Notorious: Paul Casey
STLCardinals84: Hideki Matsuyama
redkacheek: Adam Scott
hondizzle: Adam Scott
Tour Junkies: Bubba Watson
Who is your favorite golfer for tournaments?
Notorious: Jon Rahm
STLCardinals84: Dustin Johnson
redkacheek: Brooks Koepka
hondizzle: Dustin Johnson
Tour Junkies: Justin Thomas
Who is your favorite salary saver on the board?
Notorious: Jason Kokrak
STLCardinals84: Charles Howell
redkacheek: Joaquin Niemann
hondizzle: Charles Howell
Tour Junkies: Charles Howell
Which value-priced golfer has the best chance of making the cut?
Notorious: Cameron Tringale
STLCardinals84: Alexander Noren
redkacheek: Jason Kokrak
hondizzle: Paul Casey
Tour Junkies: Alex Noren
Which golfer are you afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?
Notorious: Dustin Johnson
STLCardinals84: Adam Scott
redkacheek: Xander Schauffele
hondizzle: Jon Rahm
Tour Junkies: Jon Rahm
Which stud will you have little to no exposure to in tournaments?
Notorious: Brooks Koepka
STLCardinals84: Bubba Watson
redkacheek: Hideki Matsuyama
hondizzle: Jon Rahm
Tour Junkies: Brooks Koepka
What type of golfer are you targeting most? (ie: bomber, short game specialist)
Notorious: All Around
STLCardinals84: All Around Talent
redkacheek: All Around
hondizzle: Bombers/High Hitters
Tour Junkies: Iron Studs / POA specialist
Which statistic other than Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green are you weighing most?
Notorious: SG: APP
STLCardinals84: SG: APP
hondizzle: SG: APP
Tour Junkies: SG: APP
Predict the top three finishers of the week.
Notorious: 1. Rahm 2. Casey 3. Schauffele
STLCardinals84: 1. D Johnson 2. Schauffele 3. Noren
redkacheek: 1. Thomas 2. Johnson 3. Koepka
hondizzle: 1. D Johnson 2. Watson 3. Scott
Tour Junkies: 1. Watson 2. Thomas 3. DJ
Predict the winning score of the week (ie: E, -5, -10).
Tour Junkies: -14
Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?
Notorious: I don’t have a single statistic that will lead you to picking a winner here. It helps to work the ball both ways off the tee, it helps to be creative around the greens, and it helps to have experience at this event. Even more, you need to gain strokes putting on these Poa greens. If you can find a solid all-around golfer that’s in good form and has a good track record here, you are on the right track.
STLCardinals84: In the last eleven editions of this event, every winner except one has had at least four previous starts at Riviera — and that was James Hahn six years ago. Experience is key around this venue, and this is often an event where you see the cream rise to the top. Riviera rewards good shots but also punishes mistakes, and the course is a fair one that has withstood the test of time. Patience is a virtue here, and golfers who take advantage of opportunities but also play smart when needed are the ones that can win. I am not preaching for patience too literally, though. It’s a figure of speech! After all, J.B. Holmes is the defending champion of this event, and he makes a turtle look fast with his pace of play.
redkacheek: Just like last week, we continue to see Poa cause large separation with players throughout the event. While some may lose 2, 3 or even 5 strokes putting, we repeatedly see “good” putters gain strokes consistently on Poa. While ball-striking is always a fundamental stat category, the ability to gain strokes on Poa is a big focus for me this week. Add into consideration the strength of the field, you may find it difficult to narrow down your pool, but if you take a look into prior years putting here at Genesis or other Poa courses, that will be a slightly different approach than most.
hondizzle: Over the next few months we will start to see the strength of field increase, as we get closer to the heart of the season. This week’s field is no exception as 120 of the world’s best players take on the famed Rivera Country Club. Outside of strength of field, I think Rivera lends it’s self to both long and high hitters of the golf ball. The combination of six par four holes of 450 yards or more in length and reachable par five holes makes it important to take advantage of hitting the ball a long way. Get it off line this week and you will hear about how nasty the kikuyu rough. Outside of distance and height I think it helps to be patient to play Rivera. Middle of the small greens is often a good play, and since the greens are hard to putt you need to have a player who is willing to stay the course and plot along. Get out of position this week and there are big numbers to be had.
Tour Junkies: Experience matters here. It’s proven when you look at records here and if you read enough quotes from past years, you’ll see plenty of players mention how learning your way around Riv matters from knowing the angles off the tee as well as the tricky POA greens.
What is your hot take of the week?
Notorious: Jason Kokrak posts a top 10 finish.
STLCardinals84: Carnage! Brooks Koepka, Patrick Reed, and Jason Day all miss the cut.
redkacheek: A 5/6 lineup DOES NOT win a large-field GPP this week!
hondizzle: Paul Casey bounces back from a final round in the 80s at Pebble Beach to be in the mix for round one leader.
Tour Junkies: Charles Howell misses a 4-way playoff by 1 stroke come Sunday
Who is your top contrarian golfer (when considering price, key stats, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
Notorious: Jon Rahm – I liked Rahm heading into the week and now love him after seeing the first set of ownership projections. Everyone is looking to load up on the secondary top tier (DJ, Bubba, Scott, Xander, Finau, etc) and it looks like JT will be the popular play at the very top. I’ll gladly take Rahm at low ownership after posting 10 straight top 12 finishes on tour. He loves golf in California (first PGA Tour win was at Torrey Pines) and he played well in his tournament debut here a year ago (T9). He’s one of the best drivers of the ball on tour, he has one of the best short games, and his irons have really improved over the last six months.
STLCardinals84: Xander Schauffele – This is a potential perfect storm to get Schauffele as a low-owned GPP option. Over his last two starts on Tour, he has a missed cut and an event where he faded to 16th with a final round 74. However, the missed cut was on the number, and he has top 15 finishes here at Riviera in each of the last two years. The presence of other high-end golfers that we want to spend up for will also serve to keep ownership down. Give Schauffele a long look as a great all-around golfer that can very easily win this thing.
redkacheek: Sergio Garcia – Sergio is making his way back to the states this week, most likely to begin prepping for the Masters (h/t Masters), and is priced as a value across most DFS sites. Even with this low tag, his ownership will be extremely low due to his lack of “good” PGA Tour finishes, and lack of PGA Tour data. Coming from the EURO Tour, we have Garcia ranked inside the Top 20 in SG:APP and wGIR. Although his price tag may be fair for his 2019 form, the upside and consistency in his Ball Striking stats is something that is an easy target for me, especially considering the ownership leverage in that range.
hondizzle: Jason Day – Even with last week’s strong performance, Jason Day could get overlooked this week. Lots of other great players in the same price range will pull from Day’s ownership. Despite his poor track record at this event, Day has the skills that should play well at Rivera.
Tour Junkies: Patrick Reed – In the $9K and above range, we’re not sure it’s super necessary to be contrarian as ownership will likely be rather spread out up top. So, when it comes to a guy with real win equity and likely low ownership…we’ll go with P Reed. He checks a lot of boxes this week from his short game and putting prowess on POA surfaces, to his long iron play and SG data on Par 4’s over 450 yards, but his record here isn’t good enough to put a lot of people on him. However, we know P Reed loves to compete and shut up the haters in big tournaments and strong fields like this.
Who is your top overall golfer (when considering price, key stats, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
Notorious: Paul Casey – I understand the love for Dustin Johnson this week. He nearly won in Saudi two weeks ago and should have had a better finish at Pebble Beach if not for some terrible putting and a bad round on Sunday. He has better course history than anyone in the field, but I’m still worried about his form. He has two top 20 finishes in his last 11 events worldwide. We can’t eat chalk everywhere, so I will eat the chalk with Casey and look to pivot away from DJ at the top. Casey also struggled on Sunday at Pebble Beach, but his finish wasn’t indicative of his performance. He was around the top 10 most of the week. He’s a strong all-around golfer and he’s priced at a huge discount this week. He doesn’t miss cuts at this event and he nearly won here back in 2015 (lost in a playoff to James Hahn). When factoring everything in, Casey is my favorite play of the week.
STLCardinals84: Dustin Johnson – The most important factor is that Dustin Johnson seems to be healthy again. He faded a bit over the weekend at Pebble Beach, but Sunday’s round is easily forgivable with the high winds, and he simply couldn’t get any momentum going. His immense length off the tee will certainly help on the longer par fours and the three par fives, and his course history at Riviera is nothing to scoff at — he has a win, five top tens, and nothing worse than a 16th in his last six trips to this venue.
redkacheek: Justin Thomas – This event seems pretty straightforward, but when driver (OTT) is mostly removed from an event I really look to Putting as being the difference maker. Of course we want to target really good iron players, which Thomas obviously fits, but it can be difficult to really separate out the top tier of players as they all tend to have similar baselines. My thought process on these weeks, particularly on a course with Poa greens, is to emphasize putting as slightly more than a tiebreaker. Justin Thomas has gained strokes putting at Riviera in more than 50% of his rounds here since 2017. To reiterate that approach, he also gained strokes against the field in 98% of those rounds for SG:APP. Thomas may not be the obvious selection this week with so many elite players, but when you compare key course components 1v1 against others, Thomas is my top overall golfer this week.
hondizzle: Dustin Johnson – Looking to bounce back from less than his best week of golf at last week’s AT&T Pro- Am Dustin Johnson should feel right at home at Rivera Country Club. In his last 20 rounds at what can be a very hard course, Johnson has 16 rounds at par or better highlighted by four rounds of 66 and two rounds of 64. In his last five starts at Rivera Johnson has not finished outside the top 20.
Tour Junkies: Dustin Johnson – The $10K soft price on DK is a tip of the hat to the noobs hopping in this week now that NFL is really in the rearview. With that price, DJ’s record here and form, you really can’t justify anyone over him here. Sure, he’ll likely be the highest owned guy in this range along with Bubba, but we don’t think you need to search for a ton of ownership leverage in the $9K and above range anyway. You need plenty of players in this range with this being a super strong field. The likely winner is up here, and if you completely fade it looking for an edge…you’ll likely get screwed. Play DJ and eat the incredible chalk and value.
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