DraftKings Week 1 Primer
Welcome to the DraftKings Week 1 Primer, brought to you by RotoGrinders. This column will evolve as 2014 regular-season data becomes available, and will highlight of a number of our tools that we feel are the best predictors of success on a given week. We won’t get into many of them in Week 1, but here’s a quick look at what you can expect as the regular season rolls on:
- Market Watch – The RotoGrinders “Market Watch” tool helps you track the differences in a players price each week from site-to-site, compared to the previous week. Sort the page to find the biggest risers/fallers each week, which can be a great way to find value. We’ll be highlighting a few players in respect to their price changes in the Week 2 primer!
- Defense vs. Position – This one is pretty self-explanatory; we’ll highlight match-ups for players that are in the most favorable of situations based on the defense they’ll be facing in that particular week.
- Consistency/Ceiling/Floor – We’ll touch on consistency, ceiling and floor here, which helps to draw a line between players you should be considering in cash games (high floor) and GPP’s/tournaments (high ceiling).
- Targets – Want to know which Eagles receiver is seeing the largest number of looks from Nick Foles? Curious which of the Bills RB’s is more involved in the offense? Look no further. You can view the total number of targets and touches for WR’s, TE’s and RB’s via the Targets page.
- Vegas Odds – We’ll take a look at the game lines and over/unders for each game on the schedule and highlight a few that look like the premier targets either offensively or defensively. If you aren’t analyzing Vegas Odds week in and week out, you are doing yourself a disservice!
Since the 2014 data for most of the tools listed above is nonexistent, let’s take a look at the tool we can fully analyze at this point – Vegas Odds.
Click here to check out the RotoGrinders Vegas Odds page!
New Orleans @ Atlanta
Division rivals square off in Week 1 as two notoriously high-powered offenses will do battle in the Georgia Dome. An indoor setting is a plus for both passing games and considering the Saints are favored by less than a field goal (-2.5) with an O/U of 51.5, this one should go back and forth throughout. It’s no secret that both the New Orleans and Atlanta passing units are in play, but the various Saints RB’s become very interesting high-upside GPP plays. Neither meeting between these teams was particularly high scoring last season (40 total points in Week 1, 30 total points in Week 12), but I’m not expecting that trend to continue into 2014.
Indianapolis @ Denver
This game has the highest Week 1 total at 55 points, with the Broncos coming in as 7 point favorites at home. The Denver offense as a whole will be a popular target, but the price tags on players like Peyton Manning ($10,100 on DraftKings) and Demaryius Thomas ($8,100 on DraftKings) may keep the ownership percentages down a bit. Montee Ball appears to be fully healthy and will take the reins as the top back in Peyton’s offense, which makes him an extremely appealing target right out of the gate, especially considering he’s priced a tier below the other RB1’s. Emmanuel Sanders will make his Denver debut against the Colts secondary, and he’ll do his best to help fill the void left by Eric Decker, and he’ll garner even more attention from Peyton with Wes Welker now suspended for the seasons first four games. With Sanders locked in as the #2 option, his value improves quite a bit, and even Cody Latimer and Andre Caldwell both have some GPP appeal. On the Colts side, Andrew Luck and the receiving corps are in play, but the Broncos made improving their defense a focal point of the offseason with the additions of Demarcus Ware and Aqib Talib. It will be interesting to see how Trent Richardson factors into the game plan after a full offseason with Indianapolis, but the offensive line is still a big question mark and this probably isn’t the best match-up for Richardson to get it going on the ground. With that said, you can do much worse as far as lottery tickets go in large-field GPP’s.
Jacksonville @ Philadelphia
The Eagles are one of the more interesting Week 1 targets offensively; they have a great match-up at home against the Jags, but the question becomes how long will this one stay competitive? Unless it gets way out of hand early, I really don’t think it matters for the Birds offense. Chip Kelly isn’t one to turn down the tempo (remember Nick Foles’ 7-TD game against Oakland last season?), so Foles and Co. could be in for a big statistical start to 2014. Jeremy Maclin ($5,700), Riley Cooper ($4,400) and Zach Ertz ($4,100) look like solid $/pt plays if you believe in the Philly passing game (which you should), and pairing one (or more) with Foles in a large-field tournament is a viable GPP approach that won’t break the bank. LeSean McCoy’s upside is as high as any other RB taking the field in Week 1, so he’s obviously an elite option if you can stomach the price tag.
Value Town!
Welcome to Value Town, parts unknown. Here I’ll highlight a few players with price tags that don’t add up to their level of talent and/or matchup. You won’t find the Peyton Manning’s of the world here, but rather players towards the bottom of the salary chart that have the upside to produce at an elite level. Most of these plays are geared towards GPP’s, but some of them will be playable across all game types if the price is right.
Quarterback – Ryan Tannehill ($7,200 on DraftKings)
The GPP disclaimer was brought on by this selection, because I wouldn’t feel comfortable playing him in H2H’s/50-50’s, but the upside is undoubtedly there. The change at offensive coordinator for Miami (Bill Lazor is the new guy in town) is expected to bring with it a more explosive and high-paced offense, which could prove to be big news for the former first-round pick entering his 3rd NFL season. I’m expecting a better output from Mike Wallace in the 2014-2015 season and Tannehill has the benefit of opening at home against a Patriots defense that now boasts Darrelle Revis in the secondary. Tannehill could be forced to air it out if the Dolphins get behind, but I see this game staying close (which I think should lead to some fireworks on both sides). The gap in price between Tannehill and a guy like Jay Cutler (another nice high-upside option I’m targeting) is putting the Dolphins QB squarely on my GPP radar.
Quarterback – Shaun Hill ($5,000 on DraftKings)
With Sam Bradford out yet again, Hill will step in and do his best with a bland group of pass-catchers around him. The fact that he’s minimum priced and facing a defense (at home) that was ranked dead last at defending the QB position in 2014 breeds some confidence. It’s not a play I’d be comfortable with in cash games, but pairing Hill up with a guy like Kenny Britt opens up a ton of cap space at other positions. If you really like a few of the high-priced RB’s/WR’s/TE’s, this strategy will allow you to pay up for them without sacrificing much upside. Again, this pick carries with it some obvious risk, but the reward is worth chasing if you are strapped for cash at QB.
Running Back – Andre Ellington ($6,000 on DraftKings)
I’m fine with playing Ellington in any format for Week 1, whether it be cash games (H2H’s/50-50’s) or GPP’s. The price is very appetizing now that his only competition for carries lies with Jonathan Dwyer and Stepfan Taylor, although the Cardinals aren’t going to pound Ellington into the ground regardless of the situation behind him. His small stature simply won’t hold up to that kind of punishment, so his value lies more with his ability to make big plays. Ellington averaged 5.5 YPC in 2014 and should be more of a contributor in the passing game this season (he had more than 4 receptions in just one game last year, albeit when Rashard Mendenhall was still eating up playing time), and the match-up with San Diego certainly isn’t scaring me away.
Running Back – Rashad Jennings ($5,000 on DraftKings)
With David Wilson no longer in the fold, Jennings should be heavily involved in the Giants game-plan as long as he can stay healthy. Andre Williams will take on the goal-line/short-yardage situations, but Jennings will handle most of the rushing workload and the Giants want to use his pass-catching ability out of the backfield. We got a taste of what he can do when DMC was out of commission in Oakland last year, and he was able to average 4.5 YPC behind a spotty offensive line in addition to hitting PPR pay dirt on a few occasions. The Week 1 match-up with the Lions isn’t very favorable, but I like him on the fast track in Detroit and he’ll remain involved regardless of the game flow. On a full-point PPR site like DraftKings, Jennings is gold for $5,000.
Running Back – Ben Tate ($5,200 on DraftKings)
Bernard Pierce and Pierre Thomas also caught my eye here, but I’ll take Tate between these three. He will be the lead back in Cleveland as long as he can fend off injuries, but he’s priced as if he’s splitting the work. I prefer Tate’s match-up with the Steelers over Pierce’s match-up with a stout Cincinnati defense, and it doesn’t hurt that Tate is also expected to see a big chunk of the third-down work early on, which is a nice bonus on full-point PPR sites.
Wide Receiver – Kenny Britt ($4,000 on DraftKings)
Britt has been reunited with Jeff Fisher in St. Louis, but he’ll unfortunately move to yet another team with a hole at quarterback. Shaun Hill was a more then serviceable backup in Detroit and the Rams likely won’t suffer much on the field from the Bradford (who will miss the entire 2014-2015 season) to Hill switch. To be fair, Hill had better weapons at his disposal in Detroit, and it’s still a mystery what he’ll bring to the Rams offense. Britt steps in as a starter in Fisher’s offense and it’s hard to believe he’s still only 25 with the bevy of injuries and off-field issues he’s dealt with in his career, but a bounce-back campaign could be in order for the 6’3 target. Hill will need to take advantage of Britt’s size, especially in the red-zone, so there aren’t many better speculative plays in this salary tier. I’d be absolutely shocked if Britt is able to put in a full 16 games, but he’ll be ready to rock in Week 1.
Wide Receiver – Justin Hunter ($3,800 on DraftKings)
He had just 18 catches in his rookie year, but his big play ability has people very excited about his future. The Titans invested pretty heavily in Hunter during last year’s draft, and they’ll want to see what this kid can do with a year of experience under his belt. It works out well that he and Kendall Wright play with different styles, as Hunter can roam deep in the secondary while Wright acts as the possession WR. The Chiefs lost Brandon Flowers and it looks like they’ll start Sean Smith alongside Marcus Cooper, who has been getting an awful lot of love this preseason (although I’m not sure it’s warranted – yet). Cooper and Smith both have the size to hang with Hunter, but I’ll definitely have a fair share of exposure to the 2nd year wideout in GPP’s with the hopes that he can break off a big play or two.
Wide Receiver – Markus Wheaton ($3,300 on DraftKings)
Wheaton’s opportunity comes with Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery out of town, and the home-run hitting ability he possesses has people comparing him to former Steeler Mike Wallace. The fact that he’s competing for looks with Lance Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey should immediately tell you he’s not yet the player Wallace was in Pittsburgh, but the big play upside is readily available. Antonio Brown will likely have to deal with a full dose of Joe Haden on Sunday, which should allow for one of the secondary options to fly under the radar for a big game. For just $3,300 on DraftKings, I’ll take the plunge in a GPP.
Tight End – Zach Ertz ($4,100 on DraftKings)
It would be nice if he was no longer sharing looks with Brent Celek, but Ertz is expected to be more heavily involved in the passing game and he looked like a top-flight talent at times in his rookie season. He deserves a higher price tag then he enters Week 1 with, and I can get behind this play in any format as it provides some cap flexibility at other spots. The Eagles WR’s aren’t your prototypical red-zone targets (Cooper’s size is nice, but separation can be an issue for him), and Foles was willing to look to the rookie when the Eagles were knocking on the door last season.
Tight End – Travis Kelce ($3,200 on DraftKings)
I also considered targeting the Cardinals league-worst defense against tight-ends with Ladarius Green, but I prefer Kelce’s upside given the lack of receiving options in the Kansas City offense. Dwayne Bowe is suspended for the season opener and the former third-round pick possesses a very solid combination of size (6’5, 260 lbs) and athleticism. He’s turned heads during the preseason and it’s always tough to buy into that hype, but I’m hopping on the bandwagon here. Kelce isn’t a great blocker, but the pass-catching ability is evident and it never hurts to have big play upside at his size. He’s also a legitimate red-zone target, and his price won’t stay at this level for long if he can stay healthy.
Defense/Special Teams – Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3,100 on DraftKings)
The Bucs were middle of the road in terms of defending both the run and the pass last season, but they do have a very talented core on defense and the match-up with Carolina at home is one to target for $3,100. The addition of Alterraun Verner will sure up a secondary that features some premier young talent, and the front seven was already a group filled with upside, anchored by (one of the best LB’s in the league) Lavonte David. The Bucs added Michael Johnson to a defensive line that already consisted of some pro-bowl level talent in Gerald McCoy, so this unit could be one of the best in the league. The big plus here is that the Panthers skill position players (outside of Cam Newton) just aren’t very good. Kelvin Benjamin doesn’t deserve double-coverage in his first NFL game, but the Bucs can afford to pay close attention to him and play the slow-footed group of Olsen, Avant and Cotchery one-on-one. I like the turnover upside here as well, so I’m pulling the trigger on Tampa in both cash games and GPP’s.
What to Watch for on DraftKings
After the acquisition of DraftStreet, the daily fantasy community was expecting a shake-up of NFL roster requirements on DraftKings, and we got them! The change that was best-received by the community was undoubtedly the removal of kickers, which might not seem like much on the surface. Kickers get a bad rap in the fantasy community because they are simply tough to predict, and taking a loss after your opponent’s kicker knocks a 50-yarder through is tough to swallow. In addition to taking kickers out of the equation, DraftKings has also added another wide receiver spot, which impacts strategy on a full point PPR site. With these changes, I’m making it a point to try to go cheaper at quarterback (4 points for TD’s, 1 point while putting a higher value on running backs that contribute in the passing game. Possession receivers get an uptick in value on pull-point PPR sites, especially those are involved in the red-zone offense. However, your deep threats are still valuable, as bonuses (3 points) are awarded to those that cross the 100-yard receiving (or rushing) mark.
DraftKings is running over $5,000,000 of Week 1 NFL contests, so don’t miss out on your piece of the prize pool! From the Sunday Million ($200 buy-in) to the $20K Play Action ($2 buy-in), there is truly something for everyone, regardless of the size of your bankroll. Let’s take a look at the specifics of a few of this week’s premier tournaments, which kick off Sunday afternoon.
NFL Sunday Million ($1,000,000 Guaranteed)
It’s $200 to enter, but you’ll have a shot at a six-figure payout if you can take it down! The field will consist of a maximum of 5555 entries, but overlay is a possibility here. For those that aren’t familiar with the term, we refer to guaranteed tournaments that don’t fill as those with “overlay.” Basically, you’ll get to compete with fewer people for the same amount of cash!
NFL $500K Gridiron ($500,000 Guaranteed)
This one is a bit more bankroll friendly with a $27 buy-in, and you’ll still have a shot at a six-figure payout! 21,000 entries are the maximum here, but it’s likely we could see some overlay here as well. $100,000 goes to 1st place, with 2nd place taking home a cool $40,000.
NFL $100K Play-Action ($100,000 Guaranteed)
The most economically friendly six-figure GPP, you can turn $2 into $10,000 in the Sunday Play-Action! A $10,000 return on a $2 investment is about as good as it gets; second place will take home $5,000, with $2,500 going to third.
NFL $2.5M King of the Beach Qualifiers
There are five Week 1 King of the Beach qualifiers running, ranging from a $12 to $1,000 in entry fees. Two of the five entries are $12 qualifiers with a field of 7,125, but there are also $50 (1665 entries), $200 (416 entries) and $1,000 qualifiers (just 70 entries) running on Sunday as well. You’ll need a first place finish to secure your seat in the King of the Beach tournament, but cash is also paid out to those who finish near the top.