DraftKings Week 4 Primer
Welcome to the DraftKings Week 4 Primer, brought to you by RotoGrinders. This column will evolve as more 2014 regular-season data becomes available, and will highlight of a number of our tools that we feel are the best predictors of success on any given week. Now that the first three weeks of the regular season are in the books, we’ve gotten a good look around the league and it’s time to start putting value in 2014 numbers. Although a three-game sample size doesn’t seem like much, remember that we’re dealing with a 16 game schedule; nearly 20% of the regular season has been completed. Last week was strange to say the least, so here’s to hoping Week 4 is a little more predictable!
Market Watch
We’ll start the Week 3 breakdown with a look at our Market Watch page, which tracks the movement of player salaries week-to-week. It’s a great way to get a sense of who is coming off of a good/bad week, but most importantly it allows you to find solid buy-low candidates available below at depressed price tags.
Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford – These two burned some people last weekend, huh? The good news is that the fantasy disaster in Detroit this past Sunday has brought the prices of both quarterbacks down significantly, putting them in play for cash games despite less than ideal match-ups. Rodgers price has taken the bigger tumble with a $1,000 drop, but Stafford isn’t far behind with his $800 discount. The Packers travel to Chicago for a tough division game, and the Bears haven’t been too friendly towards opposing QB’s this season (7.1 YPA). Through three games, Rodgers has thrown for fewer than 200 yards twice already this season, but that trend won’t continue. Stafford steps into a match-up with a Jets defense that has been great against the run yet ranks among the worst against the pass to start this season. If the running back tandem isn’t able to get things going on the ground, Stafford will be forced to air it out a ton (as he usually does) and I don’t see the Jets secondary doing much to stop Megatron and Co.
Donald Brown – Brown’s price has risen $1,900 this week, surpassed only by Joe McKnight’s $2,000 jump, but it’s not keeping me away. With Danny Woodhead and Ryan Mathews both on the shelf, Brown received a healthy 36 touches (5 receptions) in Week 3 against a tough Bills defensive front. He should find running lanes much easier to come by against the Jaguars defense, and his floor sits somewhere around 20-22 touches regardless of the game flow. That total is very appealing for someone with a $5,400 price tag that will contribute heavily in the passing game, so there isn’t much not to like here Nearly all of the running backs in Brown’s price range are either stuck in a timeshare or a bad match-up, so he’ll be a very popular option this week.
Victor Cruz – Here’s a guy with a big price jump that I want no parts of. Cruz finally got to do the Salsa dance last weekend against the Texans, and his first big game of 2014 has catapulted his price up to $6,800 (a $1,600 jump), slotting him as the 8th most expensive receiver of Week 4. I’ll never understand why people play the Thursday night contests with the intention of heavily targeting the Thursday night game, since it’s continually proven to be a -EV strategy. Both teams are coming off of a very short week of rest and while I do expect the Giants passing attack to have a nice night, I don’t see the upside in rostering Cruz at this price. With Jordy Nelson at $7,200 and Julian Edelman, Michael Crabtree and Randall Cobb available for less than Cruz, I won’t have any exposure to #80 this week.
Vegas Odds
If you targeted the Green Bay/Detroit game this weekend, you’re aware that high Vegas expectations don’t always pan out, but checking the lines each week is still an integral part of any research routine. Especially if you’re tracking movements, you can learn a lot each week simply by keeping an eye on game lines and O/U’s while putting teams together. Our NFL Vegas Odds page provides a full breakdown of each game on the schedule, and also includes a player props section.
Philadelphia @ San Francisco (SF -5.5, 50.5 O/U) – The New Orleans/Dallas game has the highest total of the weekend, but this game will be a very popular target as well. Coming off a short week due to a Monday night game and now traveling across the country is a burden for the Eagles, but I still like the Philly passing game to remain productive. I like Nick Foles as a contrarian GPP play and both Jeremy Maclin and Zach Ertz (who should bounce back after a dud last week) remain in play for me at their reasonable DraftKings price tags. The running game is out of the equation for me in cash games due to both the match-up and the Eagles offensive line struggles (Jason Kelce’s injury is very bad news for the Birds). However, GPP’s are a different story and LeSean McCoy’s price tag falling to $7,000 will likely leave me with some shares of Shady in tournaments. Nick Foles had to get the ball out of his hands quickly last week and we’ll likely see another heavy dose of short screens/swing passes to get the playmakers out in space. The 49ers are the appealing team target here, though. They’ll come home after starting 1-2 and I don’t expect them to hold back Kaepernick and Gore in a game they need to win. Vernon Davis is expected back this week, but Michael Crabtree is the pass-catcher I’ll have the most exposure to. If he’s able to match-up with Cary Williams on the outside, Crabtree should have another productive game. The Eagles pace of play is a big plus for fantasy goodness and the fact that they’ve scored the 2nd most points in the NFL while allowing the 6th most helps illustrate why they (along with their opponents) are so appealing from a fantasy perspective.
Carolina @ Baltimore (BAL -3, 41 O/U) – This one is tied for the lowest total in Week 4, but I still think there are some appealing fantasy targets here. Neither team plays at a very fast pace and the offensive talent on both sides is currently questionable at best, which helps to explain the low total. However, the low total will scare some people away from this game and the ownership levels for both teams will be minimal. With Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert out, DeAngelo Williams is looking like a serviceable value play without any real threat looming behind him for touches. He should see a healthy number of touches and his goal-line opportunities should rise with Tolbert out and Cam Newton dealing with a rib injury. For $3,900 on DraftKings, he’s a great $/point option against the Ravens. Kelvin Benjamin is a very nice high-upside play against a defense that struggled to contain Andrew Hawkins and Brian Hoyer this past Sunday; his volume of targets will be consistent and his size/leaping ability makes him a very nice red-zone option. On the Baltimore side, I’ll be ignoring the running game but will be cautiously targeting a few of the pass-catchers. Steve Smith gets to face his former team and has been the Ravens leading receiver in each of the first three games, setting up a decent floor even in a tough match-up. Smith has been targeted 32 times already this season, just five times fewer than league leader Jordy Nelson. He’s also picked up six red-zone targets, just one behind the league lead, which makes his $5,600 price tag very appealing. Owen Daniels is also a nice value play with Dennis Pitta out for the year, although he wasn’t able to get much going once Pitta left on Sunday. Torrey Smith remains a GPP target for me, but most of the field won’t look twice at him in this spot. He hasn’t had a serviceable stat line to this point in the season, but he’s still drawing pass interference calls on deep balls and it won’t be long before he reels one in for a long touchdown. My exposure to him will be very small and I won’t roster him outside of qualifiers/large-field GPP’s, but the upside is still there. If defenses start to focus more heavily on Steve Smith, Torrey could find his breakout coming sooner rather than later.
Now let’s take a look at our Defense vs. Position tool, which gives you an idea of how well certain teams defend a particular position. With each time having three games in the books, we’re starting to accrue a meaningful sample size here. We’ll still need to take each team’s opponents (through the first three weeks) into account when evaluating DvP ranks, but this is one of the tools I value the most.
Colin Kaepernick vs. Philadelphia (ranked 31st against QB’s) – I’ll be targeting him heavily in a match-up with the Eagles, who are traveling across the country a week after playing on Monday night (not an easy task). We’ve already seen the Birds allow a few big games to opposing QB’s, the most recent coming this past Sunday as Kirk Cousins carved up the Philly secondary for 427 yards and 3 TD’s. I’m not expecting Kaepernick to approach the yardage totals, but he can still do damage with his legs and the Eagles front seven would take a big hit if Mychal Kendricks isn’t able to suit up this Sunday (as of this writing, he’s looking very iffy). I’ll have exposure to Kaep in both cash games and GPP’s this week, with the hopes that this game turns into another shootout.
Le’Veon Bell vs. Tampa Bay (ranked 5th against RB’s) – This is a DvP ranking that I’m not buying at this point in the season, and I’ll be targeting Bell pretty heavily at his $7,400 price tag. The Bucs come into Week 4 as the 5th toughest unit against RB’s, which is a little strange considering they’re just 21st in rushing yards against. They’ve been able to hold the opponent’s #1 back in check for the most part, either by keeping them out of the end-zone or limiting yardage totals. Regardless, I’m expecting another big game from Bell in this spot considering the Steelers should be able to control the tempo here. He’s also a key piece of the passing game, so I love the mixture of high floor/high upside for $7,400.
Dez Bryant and Terrence Williams vs. New Orleans (ranked 26th against WR’s) – The Cowboys have somehow managed to start 2-1 despite a relatively ugly first few weeks. They had no issues with the Titans in Week 2, but were dominated by the 49ers at home in Week 1 and nearly fell to the Rams last week. The passing game really hasn’t done much to this point, but I think that changes in Week 4. Tony Romo hasn’t attempted more then 29 passes in either of his last two games (DeMarco Murray has been a horse through three games), but the Saints should force the Cowboys to rely on the aerial attack more often. New Orleans has already allowed Julio Jones (7 for 116) and Roddy White (5 for 72 and a TD) to post productive lines, which happened to occur in Week 1 when Matt Ryan threw for a franchise-record 448 yards. They were able to hold the Vikings receivers in check last week, but that was with a mix of Matt Cassel and Teddy Bridgewater (making his NFL debut) at QB. This game has the highest total of the weekend, and I’ll have quite a few shares of both Dez Bryant and Terrence Williams across all formats. Williams’ price is particularly appealing on DraftKings, where he’s sitting at just $4,800.
Jimmy Graham vs. Dallas (ranked 32nd against TE’s) – The tight end position is a little thin for Sunday’s contests now that Kyle Rudolph and Dennis Pitta are out, which is bad timing considering bye weeks are now making the position even more scarce. With that considered, I’m doing what I have to in order to roster Graham in cash games this week. The Cowboys are ranked dead last against the TE position thus far and their numbers would be even worse if Jared Cook hadn’t dropped an easy score late in Sunday’s game. In Week 1, they allowed Vernon Davis to catch two early touchdowns, and were completely dominated by Delanie Walker in Week 2, who went off for 10 catches, 142 yards and a score. If the Dallas defense can’t hold those two in check, they’ll be in big trouble against Graham this week. Graham leads all TE’s in receptions (24), total targets (31) and POW-Tgt (Percentage of Workload, 26.72%), and it’s no secret he’s a big part of the Saints plans in the red-zone. If you can find a few places to save cap space, plug Graham into your lineup and move on.
Value Town!
Welcome to Value Town, parts unknown. Here I’ll highlight a few players with price tags that don’t add up to their level of talent and/or matchup. You won’t find the Peyton Manning’s of the world here, but rather players towards the bottom of the salary chart that have the upside to produce at an elite level. Most of these plays are geared towards GPP’s, but some of them will be playable across all game types if the price is right.
Quarterback – Teddy Bridgewater ($5,700 on DraftKings)
It’s safe to say things have spun out of control for the Vikings since the Adrian Peterson drama began, but Minnesota fans now have something to be excited about. Bridgewater stepped in after Matt Cassel was forced to leave with several broken bones in his foot, and it’s likely he’ll be out for at least a few weeks. Regardless, it looks like its Teddy’s job to lose at this point. He didn’t do anything spectacular in his debut, but he was forced into duty without practice reps in one of the toughest road stadiums in the league. He’ll get to work with the first team all week and faces a still suspect Falcons defense at home as the second-cheapest starting quarterback on the board at DraftKings. I’m not counting on a top 8 performance, but I think he finishes somewhere in the top 12 among QB’s (it’s a bye week, remember) with upside for an even better day. At $5,700, I’d be really surprised if he wasn’t able to reach value; pairing him with a Vikings wideout (Kyle Rudolph will be out awhile, which is a plus for the WR group) is a viable GPP strategy that will allow you to pay up at other positions.
Running Back – Frank Gore ($4,500 on DraftKings)
Last week was a disaster for Gore, as he finished with just six carries for 10 yards against a very tough Arizona defensive front. The 49ers relied more on the aerial attack in Week 3, and it also didn’t help that Carlos Hyde vultured another red-zone score. Things should vastly improve for Gore on Sunday, as he’ll take on an Eagles defense that was gashed by the Colts power running game back in Week 2. San Francisco can deploy a similar mode of attack with Gore and Hyde, but all facets of the 49ers offense has a chance to explode in Week 4. $4,500 is far too cheap for Gore this week; he’s playable in any format.
Running Back – DeAngelo Williams ($3,900 on DraftKings)
He’s the only healthy back in town with Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert banged up, and calling Williams healthy is a stretch considering he hasn’t been able to suit up for either of the Panthers last two games. Regardless, he’s in line to get as much work as he can handle against the Ravens. Baltimore has been really good against the run in 2014, already shutting down the likes of Giovani Bernard and Le’Veon Bell, but the expected workload (and possibility of goal-line work considering Newton’s rib issue) makes me willing to take the plunge at $3,900. Williams should also contribute something in the passing game, which is a nice plus on a full-point PPR site.
Wide Receiver – Greg Jennings ($4,500 on DraftKings)
As if the Vikings weren’t already short on playmakers with Adrian Peterson out, Kyle Rudolph left last week’s game with a groin injury and he’s expected to miss about six weeks. That should bump up the target numbers for Jennings and Patterson, and it’s worth noting that Jennings and rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater showed some good chemistry after Matt Cassel left the game. Of Jennings’ eight targets, seven of them came via Bridgewater (4 catches for 62 yards). Bridgewater checked down an awful lot against New Orleans, but the playbook should open up a bit more with a full week of practice and the $5,100 price tag on Jennings is hard for me to pass up. He’s (very) far from an across the board H2H play, but I like the Bridgewater/Jennings pairing in large-field tournaments if you are looking for a way to afford several high-priced RB’s or WR’s.
Wide Reciever – Allen Robinson ($4,400 on DraftKings)
Blake Bortles replacing Chad Henne is great news for the Jaguars offense as a whole. Henne struggled to get the ball downfield and took far too many sacks, and his presence wasn’t particularly helping any of the other skill position players outside of an Allen Hurns explosion in the 1st quarter of Week 1. As he showed last week and in the preseason, Bortles likes to take shots downfield and the Jags offense received an immediate spark when he took the field. He’ll still turn the ball over and have his fair share of struggles, but as far as the value goes for guys like Allen Robinson and Cecil Shorts, this is big. Robinson’s snap count has increased in each week and Marquise Lee will be out again, so I like the former Nittany Lion’s chance to see plenty of looks against San Diego. He reeled in 7 of his 10 targets for 79 yards last week and with his size/leaping ability, a big game is not at all out of the question in this spot.
Tight End – Zach Ertz ($4,000 on DraftKings)
The match-up isn’t great, but the Eagles high-volume offense puts Ertz in play for me at this price. He’s going to be a top 10 tight end at the end of the season and he’s still an option for Foles in the red-zone, despite seeing just one target from inside the 20 this year. That number will be on the rise very soon and the Eagles offensive line issues could lead them to an even heavier passing attack in San Francisco. The weak offensive line also could force the Birds into using more of Brent Celek (the better blocker of the two), but the $4,000 price tag makes up for the level of uncertainty with Ertz and I really like the upside available at this price.