DraftKings Week Three Primer
Welcome to the DraftKings Week 3 Primer, brought to you by RotoGrinders. This column will evolve as more 2014 regular-season data becomes available, and will highlight of a number of our tools that we feel are the best predictors of success on any given week. Now that we’re through the first two weeks of the regular season, we can begin to look at more of our stat pages & tools, despite the two-week sample size we’re currently dealing with.
We’ll start the Week 3 breakdown with a look at our Market Watch page, which tracks the movement of player salaries week-to-week. It’s a great way to get a sense of who is coming off of a good/bad week, but most importantly it allows you to find solid buy-low candidates available below at depressed price tags.
Russell Wilson – One of the biggest reasons I’m on Wilson this week is due to the fact that his price continues to drop. He’s down another $300 this week and although the Broncos defense has improved with the additions of DeMarcus Ware and Aqib Talib, the strength of the Denver offense keeps the opponent in attack mode. Wilson was very efficient in the Super Bowl meeting between these teams, and the $6,800 price tag makes him someone I’ll be targeting in tournament lineups where I’m paying up at Running Back and Wide Receiver.
Pierre Thomas – His price has fallen $300 after he’s played more of a complimentary role in the first two weeks, but Mark Ingram’s injury should open up a few more touches for Thomas and the $4,900 price tag is very fair with that in mind. Thomas had just six touches last week (13 in Week 1) and he’s a volatile player to own in general, so this is definitely more of a GPP play as opposed to a H2H/50-50 selection. Regardless, his snap count should rise this week and with the primary touchdown maker (in the running game) out of commission, I’m making sure I have some exposure to Thomas in GPP’s/Qualifiers in Week 3. DraftKings being a full point PPR site only adds to Thomas’ intrigue.
Jordy Nelson – Nelson price has skyrocketed on DraftKings after his huge performance against the Jets, as he now stands as the 2nd priciest receiver on the board. He’s been targeted 30 times(which accounts for 40.54% of Rodgers throws) in the first two games of 2014 and he and Rodgers clearly have elite chemistry, but it’s a little hard for me to stomach paying the price for him with Calvin Johnson costing just an extra $500. Randall Cobb sits $900 below Nelson, and despite them both carrying heavy price tags, they are still in play with the GB/DET game expected to be the highest scoring contest of the weekend. With that said, an $8,400 salary makes Nelson a tougher sell in cash games.
Pierre Garcon – Garcon had just one catch with Kirk Cousins at the helm last week, but I don’t think that’s an indicator of things to come. DeSean Jackson still looks like he has a chance to play against Philly on Sunday, but I like Garcon’s upside in this match-up either way. Cousins and Garcon showed very good chemistry in Weeks 15 and 16 last season, with Garcon totaling 18 catches, 273 yards and 2 TD’s, and Garcon’s four targets last week was his lowest total as a member of the Redskins. The Colts beat up on the Eagles with the running game in Week 2 and I’m expecting the Redskins to try to do the same, but Garcon should still get his. A $600 drop in price makes him a very appealing target with DraftKings full-point-PPR scoring.
Dennis Pitta – Pitta’s price has fallen farther than any other tight end on DraftKings after a rough Thursday night outing, but the $1,200 decrease gives us something to exploit. After a 15 target Week 1, Pitta came back to earth in Week 2 match-up with the Steelers, finishing with just three catches for 40 yards (four targets). The Ravens had success on the ground with both Bernard Pierce and Justin Forsett, so Flacco wasn’t forced to air it out an obscene number of times like he was in the season opener. As far as this week’s match-up with the Browns goes, it looks to me like a good time to deploy Pitta with the big price drop. You can’t expect Owen Daniels to hog that much red-zone fantasy value at this stage in the season. Joe Haden should be able to lock down one of the Smith’s on the outside and the Browns seem more vulnerable in the middle of the field, which is another plus for Pitta. I’m expecting 8-10 targets this week and I like his odds to find the endzone for the first time this season.
Check out our Market Watch page!
Let’s now take a look at our Targets page, where you’ll find a breakdown of touches, targets, red-zone targets and percentage of workload, among other stats. It’s an invaluable tool that can help you find players who are in the best positions to succeed; it’s no secret that you want players on your fantasy team who are heavily involved in the offense, especially those that are also key cogs in the red-zone.
Joique Bell – It’s time for people to stop looking at Bell as Reggie Bush’s backup. Bell finished with four more carries, eight more targets and four more receptions then Bush on Sunday, which paints an interesting picture of the Detroit backfield. When the Lions were ahead of the Giants in Week 1, they used Bell throughout the second half to keep the clock moving, but they also used him heavily while they were trailing in Week 2. Bell finished with 11 targets in Week 2, and I like his GPP upside this week. The Packers allowed 146 rushing yards to the Jets backfield last week, and the competition gets a little tougher this week. For $5,400, I’ll make sure to have some large-field tournament/qualifier exposure to Bell, and I think he’s cash game playable at this price tag.
Knile Davis – Jamaal Charles’ status is in doubt this week. Davis was able to step in and produce another nice game in Charles’ stead. When Charles went down last season, Davis put forth RB1 worthy statistics, and he’s just as involved as Charles from a touches standpoint when he’s pressed into action. In Week 2, Davis saw nine targets in the passing game, and was able to reel in six of them for just 26 yards. The thing to take away here is that Davis will be involved regardless of the game flow and he’s been the key touchdown maker as the lead back. Alex Smith likes to check down and the volume of work keeps Davis in cash game consideration for me despite a tough match-up with the Dolphins.
T.Y. Hilton – Hilton has been targeted 11 times in each of the Colts first two games, which is tops among the Indy wideouts. He’s only been able to pull in half of them and has yet to score a touchdown, but it won’t be long before he and Luck are able to connect on a deep ball. I was a little worried about Hilton’s usage with Hakeem Nicks and Reggie Wayne both healthy, but Luck is still looking his way frequently and the Colts are wise to continue trying to get him the ball in space. He’s one of the league’s best home run hitters and in a GPP, that kind of upside can go a long way.
Andre Johnson – Although Johnson’s numbers haven’t been great through the first two weeks, keep in mind how little the Texans have been throwing. Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown it a combined 41 times in games one and two, but Johnson has still been able to reel in six catches in both contests. Out of Fitzpatrick’s 41 attempts, 16 of them have went to Johnson (39.02% of the team targets, a number bested only by Jordy Nelson at 40.54). The Texans will need to turn to the air eventually and when they do, expect a big game out of the top target. New York’s defense had an awful lot of trouble with Calvin Johnson in Week 1 and while Andre isn’t playing on that level, he’s still one of the league’s top wideouts and he’ll give the Giants fits if he’s heavily utilized.
Greg Olsen – Through the season’s first two weeks, Olsen has the highest POW% (percentage of workload) among tight ends with a 28.79% mark. One of the most popular topics of the preseason was Carolina’s lack of options at the WR position, but that proved to be a blessing for Olsen, who has seen 19 targets combined in Weeks 1 and 2. He’s going to be a key cog in the red-zone for Cam Newton and Olsen’s floor is rather high given his involvement in the offense, which is a nice plus with him priced in the second tier of TE’s ($5,600 on DraftKings).
Vegas Odds are something you simply have to analyze weekly. It’s one of the first tools I utilize on RotoGrinders each week and while it doesn’t tell the whole story, the game lines and over/unders give you a good idea of which games/teams you’ll want to target each week.
Oakland @ New England (47, NE -14) – New England has the highest team total of Week 3 (30.5), but I still think it’s tough to take many of their skill position players. I haven’t seen enough from Tom Brady to feel comfortable playing him in cash games, and there isn’t a receiver on the roster outside of Julian Edelman I’d even consider in a H2H contest. Gronk isn’t playable in cash games with his limited availability, but his presence also takes the other TE’s out of play. Stevan Ridley showed some promise last week with 25 carries for 101 yards and a short TD, and it’s likely that the Patriots will get out to another big lead. I can get behind Ridley as a cash game play, although I’d prefer him a bit more on sites that don’t award a full point for receptions. I’m not sure this is the best match-up for Shane Vereen, but it’s always tough to peg what the Patriots will do with their running backs. Vereen won’t be popular this week and I don’t mind him as a tournament play.
Green Bay @ Detroit (52, DET -1) – Vegas expects this game to be both close and very high scoring, which is the best recipe for fantasy numbers. Both of these passing games will be popular this week, and for good reason; Rodgers and Stafford should both air it out plenty if this one goes according to the script. Calvin Johnson is worth the steep price tag this week ($8,900), and Golden Tate’s $5,000 tag is appealing from a $/point perspective. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are both expensive, but they also carry relatively high floors (and high ceilings) and each should see an ample number of targets. I don’t think I’ll be targeting the Green Bay running game outside of tournaments, but the Detroit backs are a different story. The DraftKings price on both players is appealing given their upside, so I’ll likely have some exposure to Reggie Bush and Joique Bell on the fast Ford Field track. I’d prefer Bell to Bush if I had to choose one, since he seems to be the preferred option between the two for now.
Check out our Vegas Odds page!
Value Town!
Welcome to Value Town, parts unknown. Here I’ll highlight a few players with price tags that don’t add up to their level of talent and/or matchup. You won’t find the Peyton Manning’s of the world here, but rather players towards the bottom of the salary chart that have the upside to produce at an elite level. Most of these plays are geared towards GPP’s, but some of them will be playable across all game types if the price is right.
Quarterback – Josh McCown ($6,000 on DraftKings)
Things are not looking good in Tampa Bay, and it seems like they are already losing a little faith in McCown. They chose to rely on the run game (without Doug Martin) in Sunday’s loss to the Giants, which really hurt McCown’s passing numbers. He was able to score twice on the ground, but that’s likely the last time that happens this season. The upside here is that Tampa should be forced to turn more to the passing game if the defense can’t hold Matt Ryan in check. Doug Martin is expected to play this week and Bobby Rainey likely earned himself some extra work with Sunday’s performance, but I’m not sure how long Tampa will be able to stick with the ground game. Vincent Jackson has yet to break out and Mike Evans is a great secondary option, so McCown has plenty of talent at his disposal. The Falcons have not been able to do much to stop the pass through the season’s first two games, so this could be the game McCown gets on track. I’m not typically a fan of targeting Thursday night players, but I don’t mind it in McCown’s case.
Quarterback – Russell Wilson ($6,800 on DraftKings)
I’ve already touched on Wilson in the Market Watch section, so we’ll keep it short here; the price is a few ticks too low considering Wilson’s ability to contribute with his legs. The Broncos offense will put forth a better showing then they did in last year’s Super Bowl, which should hopefully force Wilson to the air a few more times. He’s typically a good bet to add a handful of points on the ground as well, so despite the Seahawks reluctance to have him chuck it 40 times a game, Wilson’s ceiling is fairly high in this match-up considering the price.
Running Back – Khiry Robinson ($3,900 on DraftKings)
Hard to beat the value here with Mark Ingram out for the foreseeable future. Ingram took hold of the job the past few weeks which left Robinson with fewer than 10 touches in each of the first two games. That will change this week, and he also has a decent shot at laying claim to the goal-line work, although Pierre Thomas has been effective in the red-zone at times throughout his career. The match-up couldn’t be much better for Robinson’s value, as the Saints should be able to cruise through most of the second half and stick with the running game. The floor here is relatively low, but the upside for the price is worth the gamble.
Running Back – Darren Sproles ($5,200 on DraftKings)
Robinson’s former teammate has been the MVP for the Eagles through two weeks, yet his price still sits at $5,200 on a full point PPR site. He was involved in a big chunk of the Eagles red-zone packages on Monday night and Chip Kelly has done a great job of utilizing his speed and elusiveness in space. LeSean McCoy isn’t giving up the reins as the horse in the Eagles run game, but Sproles is very much involved in the passing game and he’ll see a handful of carries weekly to keep McCoy fresh. The big play upside is obvious, and I think he’s involved enough at this point to be considered as a cash game play for $5,200.
Wide Receiver – Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd (both at $4,800 on DraftKings)
I don’t have a preference between the two without a clear picture of who the starter will be; Michael Floyd had a very nice season opener with Carson Palmer at the helm, but he was held to just one catch last week with Palmer out of action. Larry Fitzgerald caught six of his 10 targets from Drew Stanton, but wasn’t able to do much after the catch (he finished with 51 yards and no touchdowns). Both players have upside worth gambling on at home against a banged up 49ers defense, who just allowed Jay Cutler to throw for four scores. Fitzgerald will draw more defensive attention then Floyd, but that didn’t prevent Brandon Marshall from scoring three times despite nearly missing the game with an injury.
Wide Receiver – Andrew Hawkins ($5,000 on DraftKings)
Hawkins has been targeted 22 times through the first two games of 2014 (he currently ranks 5th among WR’s in POW with 30.56% of Hoyer’s targets going his way), and he’ll continue to be the most popular target at WR until Josh Gordon returns. He’s managed to reel in 14 of those 22 targets, and has put up respectable performances in both games despite not being able to find the endzone. The volume should continue to be there for Hawkins and at $5,300, you won’t find many players as heavily involved in the game plan. His PPR value is legitimate and I think he’ll be overlooked with the Browns/Ravens game having one of the lowest totals of Week 3.
Tight End – Kyle Rudolph ($4,200 on DraftKings)
I’ve tried this one twice now with little success, but at least I have Matt Cassel to blame! Rudolph was the most heavily targeted option in the passing game last week and he’s always a major threat near the goal line, but Cassel played very poorly against the Patriots in what should have been a closer game. The blame for Sunday’s blowout doesn’t lie solely on Cassel’s shoulders by any means, but he’s not doing his receivers any favors. Rudolph faces a softer New Orleans defense in Week 3 and the Vikings should once again be forced to rely heavily on their (below average) passing game, so there is hope for a breakout here.
Tight End – Dennis Pitta ($4,400 on DraftKings)
He was highlighted in the Market Watch section, and the explanation there tells you all you need to know with this pick. His price has plummeted to $4,400 after a down game against the Steelers, which came largely as a result of the Ravens getting out to a lead with the running game. Pitta is a preferred target of Flacco’s when the passing game is the mode of attack for Baltimore, and he’s the best option they have if they are throwing near the goal-line.
Defense/Special Teams – Dallas Cowboys ($2,500 on DraftKings)
The Cowboys come in at just $100 over the cheapest D/ST unit of Week 3, so they are worth a long look against an inept Rams offense. It’s still a mystery whether or not Shaun Hill will be healthy enough to start in Week 3, but I’ll have some exposure to this unit regardless. The St. Louis running game hasn’t been able to do much through the first two weeks and the lack of talent across the board on offense keeps the Cowboys D/ST’s floor fairly high for the price tag. Targeting D/ST units against the Rams is the equivalent of targeting pitchers against the Padres; you won’t get burned much, and the big game upside is at its highest.