DraftKings Week Two Primer
Welcome to the DraftKings Week 2 Primer, brought to you by RotoGrinders! This column will evolve as 2014 regular-season data becomes available, and will highlight of a number of our tools that we feel are the best predictors of success on a given week. Now that we’re through the first week of the regular season, we can begin to look at some of our stat pages/tools as they change from week-to-week.
For Week 2, let’s start by taking a look at our Targets page. Here you’ll be able to find a breakdown of touches, targets, red-zone targets and percentage of workload, among other stats. It’s an invaluable tool that can help you find players who are in the best positions to succeed; it’s no secret that you want players on your fantasy team who are heavily involved in the offense, especially those that are also key cogs in the red-zone.
Reggie Bush/Joique Bell
The committee in Detroit was one of the more interesting things to watch in Week 1, since both players would be fantasy gold if the other one was forced to miss time. Reggie Bush had just 9 rushes for 15 yards (1.7 YPC), while Joique Bell carried it 15 times for 51 yards (3.4 YPC) and a 3-yard fourth quarter touchdown. Things were different in the receiving game; Bush reeled in all six of his targets for 49 yards, while Bell was targeted just once (a five-yard reception). The game flow clearly played a big role (the Lions were up big early), but it looks like they still want Bell on the field late in games where they have a lead. There is no doubt Bush is electric in the open field, but he’s never been a reliable between the tackles back and his fumbling problems last year definitely played a role in Bell’s emergence. In Week 2, the match-up with the Panthers lines up better for Bush in my eyes. The Panthers front seven is very strong and the Lions will likely take to the air more often than they did on Monday night, which is a plus for Bush. I’m not sure I’ll have much exposure to either guy in cash games, but I prefer Reggie’s upside in a GPP.
Le’Veon Bell
In the Week 1 win over the Browns, it’s safe to say Bell was a big part of the offense. Not only did he finish with 21 carries for 109 yards and a score, but he also tied for the team lead in catches with six (on seven targets). He finished the day with just under 200 total yards from scrimmage, and LeGarrette Blount didn’t eat into Bell’s workload much in his debut with the team. Blount did convert on a seven-yard TD early in the game, but it was all Bell on Sunday and he will continue to be the focal point of the offense going forward. Bell’s seven targets left him with 24.1% of the total team targets, a number that was surpassed by only one other running back in Week 1 (Giovani Bernard, 10 targets for 26.3% POW-Tgt).
Dennis Pitta
He gets a little overlooked at times since he doesn’t play with a particularly effective QB and the Ravens offense isn’t high paced or particularly high scoring, but Pitta is heavily involved when they are throwing. Torrey and Steve Smith are both nice players, but they are both better used as deep threats and Pitta provides a nice safety valve for Flacco. Pitta was targeted 15 times in Week 1 (he caught 10 for 83 yards), albeit it in a game where the Ravens threw it over 60 times. He certainly won’t be reaching double-digit targets every week, but the Week 1 workload is certainly encouraging for Pitta.
Next up is our Market Watch page, The RotoGrinders “Market Watch” tool helps you track the differences in a players price each week from site-to-site, compared to the previous week. Sort the page to find the biggest risers/fallers each week, which can be a great way to find value. Let’s take a look at some players that stick out for Week 2.
Check out our Market Watch page!
1. Peyton Manning – He’s still the most expensive quarterback on the board, but he’s priced closely enough to guys like Brees, Luck and Rodgers for me to simply pay up for the safe points. Sunday night was status quo for Manning, as he threw for three touchdowns without an interception in the victory over the Colts. The yardage totals weren’t up to par
(Manning finished with 269 passing yards) and the completion percentage was relatively low, but I can’t explain the $1,300 drop in price. The Chiefs defense did not get off on the right foot against Tennessee in Week 1, and they now will be forced to deal with the most dynamic offense in football.
2. Aaron Rodgers – The trip to Seattle on opening weekend was about as tough of a draw as the Packers could have been given, and Rodgers should find fantasy points easier to come by against a Jets defense that is still dealing with injuries in the secondary. His $900 drop in price places him in the same range as guys like Colin Kaepernick, Nick Foles and Jay Cutler, and I’d prefer Rodgers to that trio in cash games.
3. Knowshon Moreno – He had a great Week 1 in his Dolphins debut, but he’s not an option for me with his $1,700 price jump in Week 2. If I’m paying more than $5.5 for a running back, I’d prefer to spend it on a player who isn’t still involved in a timeshare. Moreno saw more than twice as many carries as Lamar Miller and picked up a very impressive 5.6 YPC on his 24 touches, but he wasn’t targeted in the passing game (while Miller saw 5 targets). I don’t expect Moreno to carry it more than 20 times in Week 2 and I can’t bring myself to pay a premium for him in this offense just yet. He’s the feature back in the offense right now, but Miller is still waiting in the wings.
4. Jamaal Charles – Out of all the running backs in the player pool, Charles had the second biggest price drop following Week 1. He went from being the most expensive back on the board to the 5th most expensive option, and the $1,600 drop in price makes him a very appealing target if you are looking for a high-upside bounce back candidate. The Broncos defense is improved this season, but Charles is a major contributor in both the running and passing game, and Kansas City will need a big game from him to have any hope of hanging around in this one.
5. Demaryius Thomas – He and Manning had trouble connecting on Sunday night, as Thomas finished with just four catches for 48 yards despite being targeted 11 times. Manning looked for #88 just once in the red-zone, as the other Thomas stole the show as far as touchdowns are concerned. Demaryius will not be left out in the cold in that regard as the season wears on, and I’d be marginally surprised if he wasn’t able to hit paydirt this week.
6. Jordan Cameron – It was definitely a disappointing Week 1 for Cameron owners, as he made a few nice plays early on and then went silent to finish with two catches for 47 yards on five targets. Cameron and Hoyer worked well in their limited action together last season, and the $1,200 drop in price once again makes him an appealing cash game play. The Browns should be doing plenty of throwing against New Orleans and the $3,800 price tag is a little too good to ignore.
Value Town!
Quarterback – Brian Hoyer ($5,000 on DraftKings)
Hoyer did not get off on the right foot this past Sunday, as he completed just 4 of 11 passes in the first half, which led to the Browns trailing 27-3 after the first two quarters. He looked much better after halftime and brought the Browns all the way back to a 27-all tie, although they fell on a last-second field goal. It won’t be at all surprising to see the Saints jump out to a lead against Hoyer and Co. in Week 2, so I’d suspect they’ll be throwing heavily yet again. Johnny Football didn’t see the field at all in the opener (there was talk he might be involved in certain packages), so it appears Hoyer has complete control of the job at this point. Matt Ryan threw for a franchise record 448 yards in Week 1 against the Saints defense, which gives me some added confidence that Hoyer can pay off his dirt cheap $5,000 price tag. It’s not often you can find a starting QB at minimum price, and Hoyer has more ability then this price indicates.
Running Back – Shane Vereen ($5,900 on DraftKings)
Vereen was on the field for 61 of 86 offensive snaps, while Stevan Ridley saw just 22 snaps despite having one more carry then Vereen (8 to 7). It was also nice to see the PPR monster contribute a short two-yard TD run; if he can continue to get a good chunk of the goal line work, he’ll solidify his value outside of the passing game, which will boost both his floor and his ceiling (and the full point PPR scoring on DK is a big plus). Sunday’s meeting between the Pats and Vikings is expected to be one of the higher scoring games of the weekend (49 O/U, NE -3), and Vereen is still priced at a level where you don’t need elite production. The Vikings defense was one of the higher scoring units of Week 1, but their competition will improve significantly this week.
Running Back – Rashad Jennings ($5,100 on DraftKings)
Much like Vereen, it was really nice to see Jennings score on the goal-line in Week 1. Andre Williams was thought to have a good shot at that role, but it wasn’t completely clear coming into Week 1 and it’s something that could change week-to-week. Jennings isn’t running behind a good offensive line, so he’ll need a nice chunk of the goal line work in order make up for relatively low yardage totals when the Giants play poorly. Jennings played more than twice as many snaps as Williams, and was able to contribute a healthy 50 receiving yards on four catches to make up for his 2.9 YPC on 16 totes. His pass catching ability only further solidifies his value on DraftKings.
Many of the other potential cheap plays at the running back position are dependent upon injury news. Terrence West emerges as a strong option with Ben Tate out 2-4 weeks, and value could emerge in a few other backfields (Green Bay – James Starks) as we inch closer to the beginning of Week 2. The situation in Baltimore is also worth monitoring, as Bernard Pierce’s opening weekend fumble creates a competition between him and Justin Forsett.
Wide Receiver – Justin Hunter ($4,300 on DraftKings)
Hunter finished with more targets (8) than any other Titans receiver in the opening weekend match-up with Kansas City, and finished with 63 yards on three catches. I’m also high on Kendall Wright for $5,800, but I’ll gladly take Hunter at the discount against a Cowboys defense that will likely end up as one of the worst in football. In terms of raw talent, Hunter is the best option the Titans have in the passing game and last year’s first round pick will be a big part of the Tennessee offense in 2014 and beyond.
Wide Receiver – DeSean Jackson ($5,300 on DraftKings)
The Redskins offense as a whole struggled in Week 1, but Jackson was able to reel in eight of his nine targets for 62 yards against the Texans. He was a very valuable commodity in the Eagles offense last season, but Jackson should also shine under Jay Gruden and the chemistry between he and RGIII looked legitimate despite the team’s struggles. Jacksonville gave up a few big plays to the Philly passing game which cost them an early lead, and I’m willing to gamble on the home run hitting ability of Jackson for $5,300.
Tight End – Kyle Rudolph ($3,900 on DraftKings)
Rudolph caught just two passes in Week 1, but luckily one of them came on a red-zone target which turned into a 7-yard TD. He’ll be a force near the goal line all season long, but it’s worth noting that the Vikings attempted just 25 passes against a Rams team that couldn’t stay in the game. The run/pass distribution should look a little different with the Patriots coming to town on Sunday, and I am still very high on Rudolph’s season-long potential in Norv Turner’s offense. If you are spending on a premier option at tight end, Rudolph is a very solid $/point play at $3,900.
Tight End – Jordan Cameron ($3,800 on DraftKings)
I’ve noted Cameron’s price drop in the Market Watch section, so I’ll keep this one short. Hoyer clearly trusts Cameron’s ability to go up and get the ball in traffic and he’s the most talented pass-catcher the Browns have with Josh Gordon out of commission, so if the Browns are forced to air it out against New Orleans, he’ll improve on his catch and yardage totals from this past Sunday.
Defense/Special Teams – Detroit Lions ($3,100 on DraftKings)
The Buccaneers were one of the more popular D/ST pivots once Cam Newton was ruled out of action, but the Panthers didn’t turn the ball over once and ended up winning the game without Superman in suit. We saw the Lions defensive line dominate the Giants on Monday night, but it’s worth noting that the New York offensive line is simply not very good. I like the Lions turnover potential with or without Newton in the game, and the front seven should be able to handle whatever running game the Panthers throw at them.
What to Watch for on DraftKings
NFL Sunday Million ($1,000,000 Guaranteed) – It’s $27 to enter, but you’ll have a shot at a six-figure payout if you can take it down! Overlay is once again a major possibility here; for those that aren’t familiar with the term, we refer to guaranteed tournaments that don’t fill as those with “overlay.” Basically, you’ll get to compete with fewer people for the same amount of cash!
NFL Sunday 500 Grand ($500,000 Guaranteed) – This one now has a buy in of $200, and also pays out six figures to 1st place. This field is significantly lower then what we will see with the Sunday Million, and potential overlay is also on the table.
NFL $100K Play Action ($100,000 Guaranteed) – For the low stakes players, this is the best place to get your feet wet. It’s just $2 to enter, and you can take home a cool $10K for a 1st place finish if you can navigate the field.
King of the Beach Qualifiers – There will be three of these running in Week 2; the cheapest option is the $12 qualifier, but the $1,000 qualifier gives you the best shot at a trip to Atlantis due to the field being so small (just 70 entries). There is also a $200 option with just 361 possible entries in the field, and you won’t find a better live final in the industry then what DraftKings provides in the Bahamas.