Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Eagles vs. Cowboys Odds
| Eagles Odds | +3.5 |
| Cowboys Odds | -3.5 |
| Over/Under | 52.0 |
| Date | Sun, Dec. 10 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
This evening, the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys will meet on Sunday Night Football to play one of the most highly anticipated games of the NFL season. Entering play, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles are 10-2, one game ahead of Dak Prescott and the 9-3 Cowboys in the NFC East division. Both Hurts and Prescott are among the top-three in MVP likelihood as of this writing, making tonight’s contest important for a number of different reasons.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Cowboys as 3.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 52 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Philadelphia Eagles
What to expect from Jalen Hurts
From Week 8 to Week 13, the Eagles went 4-1, but they were outgained by at least 98 yards in each of those five games. Nonetheless, Jalen Hurts has been excellent, ranking 5th in EPA/play and 10th in success rate among all quarterbacks with at least 100 plays in that stretch. Among qualified signal callers during that time period, Hurts also ranked 6th in passer rating from a clean pocket and 3rd in passer rating when under pressure.
Hurts’ brilliance as a passer in those five games does not even include his six rushing touchdowns and 156 rushing yards. Entering Week 14, Hurts has been responsible for 31 total touchdowns this year and has been a key contributor in a Philadelphia offense that has scored the 4th-most points per game in the league this fall.
On Sunday night, Philadelphia’s offense is completely healthy. Expect them to prioritize the ground attack, but for them to find plenty of success through the air against Dallas as well.
Philadelphia defense showing its vulnerabilities
After 12 games this year, there is little doubt that Philadelphia’s defense has massive vulnerabilities that are able to be exploited on a weekly basis. Though the injuries happened early in the season, it is worth noting that this unit has been playing with linebacker Nakobe Dean, safety Justin Evans, and Avonte Maddox for nearly all of 2023.
Since Dean last played a full allotment of snaps in Week 8, the Eagles defense ranks 31st in EPA/play and 27th in success rate. They have allowed at least 400 yards of total offense in four of their last five games, with the lone outlier coming against the meager Kansas City offense on Monday Night Football following a bye week.
This unit is vulnerable once again on Sunday against a potent Cowboys offense that has scored at least 41 points in each of their last four home games.
Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott looking to cement himself as MVP favorite
Less than a month ago, Dak Prescott was as high as 20:1 to win this year’s NFL MVP award, but those odds have plummeted to a consensus line of +300 ahead of kickoff tonight. Prescott has been masterful since Dallas’ bye week, ranking 1st among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play, 2nd in success rate, and 3rd in air yards per attempt.
During that stretch, he has a 20-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio through the air with another score on the ground. He ranks 2nd among qualified signal callers in passer rating from a clean pocket and 1st in passer rating when under pressure since Week 8. He is playing the best football of his career and is poised for another big showing this evening against a struggling Philadelphia secondary unit.
Micah Parsons listed as QUESTIONABLE
Micah Parsons was a late addition to the injury report earlier this afternoon with an illness, but local Dallas media has reported that he is still expected to play tonight. Parsons leads the Cowboys defense in quarterback pressures and sacks this year by a wide margin in both categories, making him an indispensable player for this unit.
According to PFF, Parsons ranks 2nd out of 104 players at his position as a pass rusher in 2023 and 38th as a run defender. He has consistently been the best player on the field for the Cowboys this season. Even if he is under the weather, he figures to make an impact on tonight’s game for this defense.
Eagles vs. Cowboys – Picks & Predictions
Primetime unders have been a cash cow in the NFL this fall, but not when the game is played at Jerry World. On Thanksgiving, the Commanders and Cowboys combined for 55 points. Last Thursday, the Seahawks and Cowboys combined for 76 points.
Dallas has scored at least 41 points by themselves in each of their home games since their Week 7 bye, and tonight they get to face a Philadelphia defense that ranks 31st in EPA/play and 27th in success rate across their last five games.
Philadelphia has not been firing on all cylinders during the last month of action, but their offense has still been elite, and they will have opportunities on the ground this evening against a Dallas defense that ranks 15th in EPA/play and 22nd in success rate against the run since Week 9.
There should be no shortage of points in this matchup, making the over an appealing look in this spot.
PICK: Over 52 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)
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