EPL Breakdown: Saturday, 10/25
Welcome to another weekend of DFS Soccer! This week DraftKings has split the slate into two separate game days, so today I will be focusing on the five-game Saturday slate, with the expectation that I’ll get the Sunday slate up sometime Saturday. A few key things to keep in mind: some of these teams have just finished playing Europe games (both Champions League and Europe League) and a few teams are going through some serious injury concerns. Without any more delays, let’s get into the game-by-game breakdown, and as always make sure to keep an eye out for starting lineups Saturday morning, as things can and will change between now and then. Follow me @DFS_hambazaza and ask me questions and I’ll do my best to answer them. Good luck.
Liverpool vs Hull City
The first game we’ll take a look at is Liverpool vs Hull City. Liverpool is coming off a weekend in which they got manhandled by a superior Real Madrid team. However, their form in the Premier League is decent, as they’ve won three out of their last six and are coming off a two-game winning streak. This game however is one of the higher over/under’s of the day, as it sits at 2.5, but the over is at -175, heavily favoring more goals in this matchup. The stats support this hypothesis, as Hull has a 16.5% conversion rate and will likely have 4-5 shots on target this match. Liverpool will take a higher volume of shotsl but will convert a lower percentage of them. I predict this will be a high-scoring matchup between two teams that are looking for goals.
Goalkeepers:
I would stay away from both Mignolet and Jakupovic today in my games. I don’t suspect either of them will pay off their salary and each could end up conceding more than two goals. This will put them in the negative category and will ultimately hurt your fantasy teams.
Clean Sheet Index = 3
Other Players I like
There are several plays that I can consider optimal in this matchup, the most obvious of which is Raheem Sterling. The young midfielder is extremely high priced and is the most expensive midfielder on the board for the day. Several people will be off him because of that, as well as because of his recent run of games in which he only managed to top double-digit fantasy points once in the last four (against West Brom). However, looking at this matchup, we are reminded that Hull has allowed the most shots on goal this season, as well as the most crosses. Moreover, Sterling has taken 15% of the team’s shots so far and provided 23% of the team’s goals. In a game with a high over/under, it would be foolish to not have some ownership of Sterling.
Another option for Liverpool is Mario Balotelli, who is going through a miserable season so far. He hasn’t scored in the Premier League yet and has only one goal in the Champions League. Balotelli is a GPP option only at this point, but he is too talented to go through the whole season without scoring more goals if given more opportunities. Also worth a look are Steven Gerrard and Philippe Coutinho (Coutinho is my favorite cheap play in the midfield for Liverpool if you can’t afford Sterling)
As for Hull, they are dealing with several injuries. Most important to us however is Nikica Jelavic, who will not be available for this match. In his place is Abel Hernandez, who so far this season has scored three goals and takes 20% of the team’s shots. With the absence of Jelavic, who takes 24.5% of the shots for Hull, I suspect Hernandez to increase his output slightly. The only problem with this is the potential for the coach Steve Bruce to sit back and play the counter attack, which will limit Hernandez’ chances to score a goal. Other viable plays for Hull in the midfield include Ahmed El Mohamady, who will provide crosses (26% of the teams crosses so far this season), and Mohamed Diame, who likes to venture into the final third and provide some attacking power.
Southampton vs Stoke
Southampton is the biggest favorite of the day. They come in having won five of their last six fixtures and just last week drubbed Sunderland to the tune of 8-0. The whole team had a field day, finding unique ways to score and embarrass the visiting team. This weekend, Southampton is at home again and is playing a Stoke team that is currently sitting in the middle of the table. Moreover, Southampton so far is one of the best defensive outfits in the Premier League, which puts the defenders and goalkeepers in play. Also, the team features an offense with a very high conversion % (goals/shots), second only to Chelsea. Stoke however is not a bad defense. They allow opponents a conversion rate of 5.8% on an average of 14 shots a game (only 3.5 on target). Southampton however is firing on all cylinders heading into this game, and I like them to dominate this matchup and come away with the win.
Goalkeepers
Fraser Forster – Southampton – Priced at $4,700, Forster comes in at a steep price, however, his team is a heavy favorite to win and have a very strong defense. Forster won’t see many shots that will require him to make any saves, but the win bonus and the big potential for a clean sheet more than make up for it.
Clean Sheet Index = 8
Asmir Begovic – Stoke – He’s a consideration only because he’s behind a decent defense that has allowed one goal or less in four of the last six matchups. It will be difficult however to ignore the matchup he faces this week and I would not take him in a cash game. He is however an option for GPPs, as he will see plenty of shots on target, and if he has a magical day that can end up helping someone win a major GPP.
Clean Sheet Index = 4
Other Players I Like:
Southampton has in my estimation two of the top offensive players in this game slate: Dusan Tadic and Graziano Pelle. Both are in great positions to perform this week. They are both coming off a monster game against Swansea and will be very highly owned. I would hesitate to fade them in my cash games, as you can’t afford to fall behind too much this week with limited options. As for the numbers, Tadic is playing great ball right now and his form is phenomenal. He can easily reach double-digit points on crosses alone and he has accounted for half the team’s assists so far this season. If Pelle manages to find the back of the net, it might come from a pass or cross from Tadic. Pelle on the other hand has been great, as he’s taken 29% of the teams’ shots so far this season and has six goals to show for it.
On the defensive end, both Bertrand and Clyne play on the wings and provide plenty of support for the offense up front. Couple that with the big chance of a clean sheet bonus and one or even the pair becomes a must play. If you had to select only one, I would go with Ryan Bertrand, as he’s taken 14% of the team’s crosses so far this season and has shown the ability to score goals as well as provide assists.
For Stoke, the only defender I would consider is Phil Bardsley, who has taken an average of a shot per game as well as provided approximately two shots per game. Bardsley is a GPP option alone however. Also worth taking note of are Peter Crouch and Victor Moses, as they may be able to provide some offense and threaten the goal, but I don’t expect them to pose a serious threat. If you choose to roster any of these, you’d be living very dangerously.
Sunderland vs Arsenal
Not only does Sunderland have to deal with the hangover of being manhandled by Southampton last week, but they get to face Arsenal this week. The only relief they get is being at home and facing an Arsenal team that is very beat up at the moment. Expect Sunderland to shuffle things around a bit, and play for the draw in order to begin the recovery process. On the other side, Arsenal is coming off a dramatic last minute victory after being down 1-0 in the 89th minute. The Gunners get their goalkeeper back for this match and Szczesny is my second favorite goalkeeper on the day.
Goalkeepers
Wojciech Szczesny – Arsenal – The Gunners are looking for an important win for them here today. They have fallen to 7th in the Premier League standings and are coming off a seven-game stretch in which they have conceded goals. The odds for a Szczesny clean sheet are slim, but Arsenal is the projected winner in this matchup.
Clean Sheet Index = 5
Vito Mannone – Sunderland – Nothing good can be said if you’ve just come off a game where you’ve conceded eight goals. While not all of them were Mannone’s fault, he did have a few blunders that led to some strikes for Southampton. Avoid him unless you think Arsenal is too tired to score, and that the park-the-bus strategy will work.
Clean Sheet Index = 3
Other Players I Like:
Arsenal is shuffling the decks this week, Wilshere is out, Chambers is back from suspension, and Ramsey is healed and could be back in the starting lineup after coming off the bench twice in the last week. Between Alexis Sanchez and Aaron Ramsey, the Gunners should be able to provide some firepower. However, with so much in flux, it is hard to know which striker will score for them. In the last five games they have had five players score goals. Danny Welbeck is their most likely scorer, as he has scored on 15% of the goals for this team, including a hat-trick against Galatasaray in the Champions League. However, at his price of $10,600 there are other forwards I’d rather have on my teams. At the back, Kieran Gibbs is the defender of choice, as he can provide crosses (16% of the team crosses) and just as recently as last week was able to score for the Gunners to begin their miraculous comeback.
For Sunderland, they are one of the worst offenses going and I have them projected as the least likely to score. However, if you were to take a flyer on a play or two from here, I would recommend Steven Fletcher and Sebastian Larsson. Combined they have three goals and three assists for Sunderland. Larsson can also provide some crosses while Fletcher has the best chance of finishing on goal as a lone striker.
West Bromwich Albion vs Crystal Palace
These are two very evenly-matched teams in the bottom half of the table, battling out to avoid relegation. The game could potentially be a slow one, but there is some talent on these squads. This game could end up being a 0-0 affair or a 2-1 affair, so tread lightly.
Goalkeepers
Ben Foster – WBA – Foster returns after missing the 2-2 draw with Manchester United, and he’s facing a team with some firepower in Campbell, Puncheon and Bolasie. Foster however is capable of a good game, as he’s provided in the past some double-digit performances. His chances of a clean sheet may be slim, but he has the potential for multiple saves and the win.
Clean Sheet Index = 5
Julian Speroni – Crystal Palace – Crystal Palace is on the road and is an underdog in this matchup. Speroni should face a lot of pressure, and his back line isn’t known for great defensive performances. I would not roster Speroni, as there are better options and the chances for a clean sheet are not the best.
Clean Sheet Index = 3.5
Other Players I Like:
Sebastien Pocognoli and Andre Wisdom are both full backs for WBA and I have them both ranked as top 10 defenders this Saturday, given the matchup as well as their penchant to attack up front. If you had to pick one I’d go with Pocognoli, though I would take Wisdom in a cash game for salary relief.
Saido Berahino of West Brom is a great young forward who is fast and can get his shot off behind the defense. in his last three games he has four goals and has 13, 21 and 27 fantasy points. He takes 24% of the team’s shots and has scored 60% of the team’s goals so far this season. According to my own projections, he is the most likely goalscorer this Saturday, and at his price he should pay off handsomely. If you’re playing a GPP and want to stack a midfielder along with Berahino, then I would look in the direction of Chris Brunt, who is very underpriced and would make a great option to go along with Berahino. His price is real low at $3,300, and in his first game back from injury he recorded an assist. He should also be the main set piece taker for the team before long.
On the other side of the ball, Crystal Palace will attack from Jason Puncheon and Yannick Bolasie – they will both be GPP options, as I suspect that Palace will score, but I’m not sure where it will come from. Some exposure to Puncheon and Bolasie will help you avoid missing out on them completely.
Swansea vs Leicester
Our final match of the day features Swansea hosting Leicester. Both teams are coming off some rough weeks, but Leicester has lost three games in a row and their manager has said that he may be making changes. Be on the lookout for starting lineups. The danger here is that this is a late game and you will not have anybody to pivot to if you happen to have a Leicester player not in the lineup. For that reason, I’ll have little exposure to this game.
Goalkeepers
Lukasz Fabianski – Swansea – Fabianski is a favorite here and his team should win comfortably. Fabianski shouldn’t be called upon too often, but if he is, he’s done well so far this season in recorded saves to the tune of four saves a game. The clean sheet is within reach and he is the safest pick in this game.
Clean Sheet Index = 6.5
Kasper Schmeichel – Leicester – He has not recorded a clean sheet in almost two months and has allowed a goal or more in each game since DFS soccer has begun. He has had some double-digit games, though those all depend on his ability to make saves. He’s an extreme GPP play only and not one I’d go too heavy on.
Clean Sheet Index = 1
Other Players I Like
Swansea’s fullbacks are Neil Taylor and Angel Rangel, who both can provide some good pivots to differentiate you from the crowd. However, they don’t provide too much offense, as Swansea is a “down the middle” attacking team, thus Taylor and Rangel’s value lies solely on the teams ability to hold a clean sheet.
In other places, I like the combination of Sigurdsson and Bony as a GPP stack. Both have combined to provide seven out of the eight assists for Swansea so far this season, and Bony plays as a lone forward.
Also, another good stack is the midfield combination of Sigurdsson and one of either Routledge or Dyer, as both have scored goals for this team and take plenty of shots for them. Moreover, their prices are real low and that allows you to pick other high-priced players to fit in your team.
On the other side of the ball, Leicester makes me nervous, as they tend to shuffle their lineup quite a bit. So, if you roster anybody from there, be prepared to make a pivot to someone else. However, my favorite plays from this game are Riyadh Mahrez and Leonardo Ulloa, as they provide some upside – picking underowned players on the road that may get scoring chances can really help your roster in the end.
As always, good luck!