EPL Daily Plays: Saturday, 12/5
We have another weekend of DFS and the major teams take the field again and we have some more DraftKings GPPs, and while everybody is worried about CFB and NFL coming to a close, we still have plenty of weeks left of EPL matches we can enjoy and play to our hearts desire. There should be lots of goals scored this week, plenty of teams facing lesser opponents and plenty of interesting plays and decisions to make. As always, feel free to contact me through RotoGrinders or on Twitter @DFS_hambazaza and I’ll try my best to answer any questions you may have about your lineups. Good luck.
Goalkeepers
Hugo Lloris, Tottenham $5,400 Facing Crystal Palace at home, Tottenham have very good odds to win the game and record the clean sheet. Crystal Palace haven’t had a good run lately with only five points in their last six games, they have fallen to 15th place in the Premiership and are officially in the battle for survival in England’s top flight. Tottenham, on the other hand haven’t had good luck holding onto to clean sheets so far this season. However, looking at their recent schedule, their last home matchup with a similar opponent was Everton and in that game, while Lloris hadn’t held a clean sheet, he did end up with 13 fantasy points. The biggest concern is that with this price, without the clean sheet, Lloris will not reach value.
Joe Hart, Manchester City $5,300 While the clean sheet is again a tough call, Hart and Manchester City are in a very good chance to get the win in this matchup, and with City currently in second place, they will be gunning for all three points at home in order to keep pace with leaders Chelsea, or to catch up if Chelsea has a slip-up in their earlier game. His price is prohibitive, however, the odds of a 2-1 win are great for Hart.
Robert Green, QPR $4,700 we’re heading into uncertain waters here with our keeper selections, but with games that are all expected to feature several goals, you’ll find that defenders and keepers will be tough to come about. Green with QPR is a risky pick as this game can easily be a 1-0 or 3-2 matchup. Burnley have been the worst offensive team all year in the Premiership, however, they’ve managed to pick up their pace a little heading into this weekend’s games. QPR are the favorite in this matchup, so you’ll be taking a flyer on the “cheap” Green in this one.
Other Keepers I like: Damian Martinez – Arsenal, Steve Harper – Hull
Defenders
Kieran Trippier, Burnley $5,000 His price has stayed stagnant the last three weeks (> $5,000) and for the last two weeks he’s reached value without recording clean sheets or scoring any goals. While this matchup is a tough one for Burnley and Trippier, he has exceeded 7 crosses in three of the last four games (the fourth being a complete dud with 0 crosses) Trippier leads all defenders in the Premier League in the number of crosses provided this season, and look for him to continue that run in this game.
Andrew Robertson, Hull $4,800 He’s been underperforming lately, but he’s in a good spot to produce some crosses for this Hull team at home against a below average West Brom team. Robertson is a GPP play, it seems that most secure plays this week aren’t very secure as Baines and Coleman aren’t in a position to notch the clean sheet or the win, and Chelsea’s defenders are not part of this game set. Robertson makes one of the better differentiation plays today as most people will try to stack defenders with their keepers.
Glen Johnson, Liverpool $4,400 In his last few games Johnson has drifted away from what makes him a valuable fantasy option, however in today’s matchup he’s facing a team that has conceded the third highest big chances from the right flank that Johnson likes to operate from. I think that this is a prime opportunity for Johnson to revert back to his old ways of dishing crosses and putting his teammates in opportunities to score goals.
Other Defedners I Like: Pablo Zabaleta and Gael Clichy – Manchester City, Leighton Baines – Everton, Eric Dier and Ben Davies – Tottenham
Midfielders
Christian Eriksen, Tottenham $8,300 Eriksen has had his price go up once more ahead of this easy matchup with Crystal Palace. Eriksen has two goals in his last three games, and even in his last matchup with Chelsea was able provide seven crosses away from home against the league leaders. Look for Eriksen to continue his attacking form and he is the most likely goal scorer on this squad this Saturday.
Santi Cazorla, Arsenal $6,600 Cazorla continue to provide value for the gunners as he’s managed to reach double digit fantasy points in his last two matchups. Facing a Stoke squad, Cazorla should again reach value especially at this discount price. Depending on the lineup that Arsenal employs, but if Giroud is back in, then Cazorla should be right behind him in the attacking midfield “10” spot, if Giroud does not start then Cazorla ends up falling to the wing spot, which still has value in crosses and potential assists.
Other Midfielders I Like: Yaya Toure – Manchester City, Nacer Chadli – Tottenham, Jesus Navas – Manchester City, Leroy Fer – QPR, Ahmed Elmohammady – Hull, Wilfried Zaha – Crystal Palace, Sebastian Larsson – Sunderland, Raheem Sterling – Liverpool, Sone Aluko – Hull
Forwards
Sergio Aguero, Manchester City $12,900 As the most expensive option on the board, it will be very difficult to fit Aguero into your lineups, however, he’s likely the best option and the most likely multi-goal scorer in the slate of games we have for Saturday. I don’t need to go into the numbers, but Aguero is on a tear right now and is one of the best strikers in the world.
Charlie Austin, QPR $8,400 He’s facing off against Ings as another “cheap” striker on the season. Austin is the better option of the two, despite the elevated price tag. He’s been tremendous at home notching four goals in his last three home games making him almost a must play at his price. Moreover, a lot of people will be off of him because of his weak performance midweek, but Charlie Austin is a different animal on his home turf.
Harry Kane, Tottenham $8,200 his price keeps rising and Kane is a risky play since he doesn’t reach value unless he scores. However, I have a good feeling about him this week and he’s got all the ancillary stats pointing to him being real close to scoring. In his last four weeks Kane has taken 15 shots with 3 of them resulting in “big chances” however, he’s only scored one goal. His 15 shots taken are fifth in the Premiership and I expect the goals to start coming soon.
Danny Welbeck, Arsenal $11,500 Welbeck leads the league in touches in the penalty area in the last four matches with 11 shots taken inside the 18-yard box. Welbeck has been the closest striker to goal without actually capitalizing on the chances (more than once at least) Welbeck faces a good matchup this week.
Olivier Giroud, Arsenal $7,100 If Welbeck does not actually start then I expect Giroud to be the starter. And at a discounted price of $7,100, Giroud makes a great value play if he gets at least 60 minutes as he has a keen eye on goal and can score from anywhere. He is only a gpp option however as he’s likely to not contribute in any of the peripherals.
Other Forwards I Like: Danny Ings – Burnley, Romelu Lukaku – Everton, Saido Berahino – West Brom Albion, Rickie Lambert – Liverpool