EPL Daily Plays: Saturday, August 18th

Well, Matchweek 1 wasn’t that bad; there was definitely some good and some bad. If you read last week’s contests you saw that I was high on Zaha and Fraser, and both of those came through with goals scored. But you also might have noticed that I was high on Everton and thought the main catalyst in their success would be Sigurdsson. And while Everton did play a good match against Wolves, it wasn’t Siggy that had positive returns, but Richarlison who scored twice in order to preserve a point for Everton despite going down a man right before the halfway mark because of a bad tackle from Jagielka. The unfortunate repercussion of the red card was a tactical substitution of Sigurdsson that left me wondering about the place that Siggy has on this team and whether he is their long-term solution and chance at success this season.

Elsewhere, I underestimated how bad Huddersfield really are, as a Chelsea team that still is trying to get their legs beneath them absolutely ran through them to the tune of 3-0, of course, I wouldn’t have been recommending Kante and Jorginho anyway as neither of them are particularly good goal scorers (more on them later). In matches outside of Saturday, Manchester City, Liverpool, and Manchester United all took care of business and looked good doing so. Southampton and Burnley played to a nil-nil draw in which Burnley showed some better midfield play than Southampton and renewed my suspicion that the Saints may find themselves in trouble this season and battling to avoid relegation.

This week we have another five matches that we can dip our toes into for the Saturday slates. DraftKings and FanDuel have contests up for us to analyze and build lineups for Saturday. We have a solid four-match slate and a late match featuring Chelsea and Arsenal in the Blues’ home opener.

The lineup build for this slate will depend heavily on taking Tottenham players as they host newcomers Fulham at Wembley. Beyond that, it will be heavily important to find the value plays to fit around the star players you’ll want to add to your lineups.

Cash Games

So who do we like for cash games? For cash games, it is important to consider players who have a high floor. For each position, a floor is determined in a different way. For forwards, we want players who will take plenty of shots, sometimes recklessly. For midfielders, they also take shots, but the more important statistic to me is how close to the opponent’s goal their average touches are. Touches in the final third lead to crosses, assists, and shots. For Defenders, it’s a similar mentality, in that we are looking for players that are venturing forward more often. These are usually the fullbacks that push forward as part of the attack and support their teams’ efforts in scoring goals. For goalkeepers, targeting shots on target from the opponents leads to the highest chances at saves, but it also increases the chances at goals scored against them. For cash games we’ll want safety, so a home keeper that is favored might be expensive, but they carry a safe floor that will be hard to beat.

These players are a few that I would consider listed in order of position.

Marko Arnautovic, West Ham, Forward, $6,600 DK, $9,500 FD – I like what Arnautovic can do this season, he can be a major focal point for a Hammers team that spent in excess of $100 million this summer and is looking to move up the table. Arnie is a gifted player that can score in any match and in a matchup with Bournemouth, I think he’s got a great opportunity to come through here this week. I think out of all the forwards this week Arnautovic has a good chance to take plenty of shots that can bring up his floor to a reasonable value to make him a decent cash game option.

Willian, Chelsea, Midfielder, $8,900 DK, $9,000 FD – If Willian gets the start, then he’ll be getting plenty of opportunities as Chelsea are likely to play an attacking style game against Arsenal at home. Willian will probably be on set pieces including corners and free kicks. He’s been known to knock one in from 30 yards if given the opportunity and Petr Cech has been prone to mistakes in recent seasons as the years are finally catching up to him.

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Christian Eriksen, Tottenham, Midfielder, $10,100 DK, $11,500 FD – By far, the premier cash game option this week is Eriksen as he’s the fulcrum of a Tottenham team that is the biggest favorite on the slate this week. The Spurs have famously made no additions to their team this summer and that means that there is plenty of pressure on them. Kane tends to not score goals in August (though, I think he scores this week), Eriksen is the good alternative from Kane if you want exposure to the potent offense of the Spurs.

Gylfi Sigurdsson, Everton, Midfielder, $7,100 DK, $8,000 FD – Even though he was subbed right around the half last week, Sigurdsson was already at 5 crosses and would have easily ended with 10 crosses had he played the full match. With Richarlison getting confidence, I expect that there will be more free kick opportunities outside the box as well for Gylfi. I’ll continue to put my money on Siggy having a solid positive season despite the less than stellar start.

Ryan Fraser, Bournemouth, Midfielder, $8,000 DK, $7,500 FD – Fraser was solid last week as he provided crosses and scored a goal for the Cherries. I think this week against West Ham he’ll have some more opportunities. He’s less of a priority for me because of his price tag as well as playing on the road. I do think he’s a good differential play in cash games and he has the upside to be successful in tournaments as well.

Ben Chilwell, Leicester, Defender, $5,300 DK, $5,500 FD – Chilwell played excellent against Manchester United as he put in 8 crosses and created three chances for his teammates. Without Mahrez this season, Chilwell may end up playing a vital part of his team’s creativity and providing opportunities down the left side of the Wolves defense.

Cyrus Christie, Fulham, Defender, $4,500 DK, $5,000 FD – Christie had a great game last week in which he delivered 12 crosses against a weaker Crystal Palace team. Of course, this week he’s going against a Tottenham team that should get more of the ball and thus limit Christie’s runs down the flanks. However, I think at his price tag you can still get a decent return from him with just 5 crosses or so, and maybe some defensive stats or a shot or two, as well as the outside chance of an assist.

Hugo Lloris, Tottenham, Goalkeeper, $5,900 DK, $5,000 FD – The safest keeper is Lloris as he’s at home against a team that probably won’t get a lot of shots on him. Lloris is coming off a world cup winning summer so his confidence is high, his price is just as high though and will likely be a safe popular option at keeper.

Tournaments

For Tournaments we tend to look at things a bit differently, we want that high floor, but we also want low ownership as well as chances at goal scoring that come with being in the right place at the right time. There is also an inherent risk in taking players that can succeed in tournaments, in that these players could routinely end up with 1-5 points or 20-25 points depending on whether they score goals or not. The ideal tournament lineup for soccer is one in which each player scores a goal and has a chance at another one.

The following list includes some players that I would consider this week in tournaments that have the best chances at goal scoring.

Harry Kane, Tottenham, Forward, $11,000 DK, $12,000 FD – I don’t believe in curses. That said, Kane has been cursed for the past few seasons with poor starts and no goal scoring in August. He recently came off a golden boot performance in the World Cup in Russia, so he may have vanquished his demons but it’s impossible to truly tell. He did look a bit gassed last week which is why I have him as a tournament option only this week. But I do think that Kane has a solid 25+ goal season and I think he scores in close to half of his games so taking a shot on him this week won’t be a bad idea.

Alvaro Morata, Chelsea, Forward, $7,600 DK, $9,000 FD – Speaking of curses, Morata finished his season with Chelsea struggling, and started this season with issues as well. I was hoping that a matchup with Huddersfield might open things up for him, but he didn’t seem to get his feet going. I’m mentioning him here because I think that he scores 12-15 goals this season and while a matchup against Arsenal may not be the place to open his account, he will be at home and with another week of practice with Sarri, Morata may start showing signs of improvement. Remember, Higuain went from an 18 goal scorer in Serie A before Sarri to a 36 goal scorer the next season. I don’t expect a similar awakening in Morata, but Morata is a capable young striker that can break through for his team.

Raul Jimenez, Wolverhampton, Forward, $6,800 DK, $7,500 FD – During the week it was revealed that Cavaleiro has sustained an injury that will keep him out for six weeks. During those six weeks, Raul Jimenez should pick up a lot of that slack. Jimenez was already a solid piece of the Wolves puzzle, but now he’s going to carry more of the responsibility. He’s a good option to pair with Joao Moutinho who is a good value play. Wolves playing Leicester on the road will be tough, but if this team is to truly compete for the top half of the table this season they have to get results from these road matchups with the mid-tier teams.

P.E. Aubameyang, Arsenal, Forward, $7,000 DK, $9,500 FD – At this price tag its crazy to think that Aubameyang isn’t an automatic free space in everybody’s lineups. But I don’t think he will be. PEA has the ability to score plenty of goals and he’s a supremely talented player, but since he’s on the road against Chelsea I’ll hold back on my expectations just slightly. However, for tournaments, PEA has an outside chance at coming away as the highest scoring forward on the day despite being on the road.

Mohamed Elyounoussi, Southampton, Midfielder, $5,800 DK, $7,000 FD – If they were at home, Elyounoussi would be a cash play, but since they’re on the road and I am still not sure if he gets the start, he’s a tournament play. Elyounoussi started last week on the bench and came on in the second half. When he did come into play, he delivered crosses and was on the set pieces for Southampton. That indicates that he’s their main player to consider for DFS IF he gets the start. Eventually, I would expect him to start regularly for this team, maybe that happens this week?

Ryan Sessegnon, Fulham, Midfielder, $5,700 DK, $7,000 FD – The young player for the Cottagers has great potential and has been rumored for a transfer to Tottenham over the last window. In fact, there are reports that a deal was in place in case Fulham failed at promotion, but they in fact did succeed leaving Fulham with no choice but refuse the transfer. So, here we are, in week 2 and Sessegnon playing against the team that potentially was going to employ his services. I suspect that he’ll want to show up and maybe convince them to make a strong move for him in the January transfer window or even next summer if Fulham survive the EPL season. Sessegnon has a good chance at a goal or even just some solid attacks against the solid Spurs defense.

Lukasz Fabianski, West Ham, Goalkeeper, $4,900 DK, $5,000 FD – For tournaments, I like to take the cheapest home keeper. In this case, it is Fabianski who is home to Bournemouth, and while West Ham aren’t underdogs, Fabianski will see his fair share of shots on target, and even if he concedes a goal or two, he may end up with 4-5 saves to augment it, giving him a solid score with the potential for a massive 20+ point day if he gets lucky.

Value Plays

How about some value plays?

N’Golo Kante, Chelsea, Midfielder, $4,000 DK, $9,000 FD – Chelsea’s switch to a 4-3-3 coupled with the acquisition of Jorginho makes Kante a very interesting DFS play. Last week he played further up the pitch and closer to the opponent’s goal. In fact, he scored a goal in the first half from outside the box. I don’t think he’ll score double digits this season, but Kante is now in a position to threaten on attack and could be a solid play for Sarri. Another benefit of his advanced position is that he will press the ball in the opponent’s half, giving Chelsea a chance to win the ball closer to the opposing goalkeeper and thus allow for quicker attacks. This should result in more shots for the team and bigger goal scoring numbers throughout the season.

Joao Moutinho, Wolves, Midfielder, $4,300 DK, $6,500 FD – While Wolves might play Moutinho as a defensive midfielder, he partners with Ruben Neves in that position and both will have different duties. Neves is more of a free kick specialist and defensive midfielder. Moutinho could find himself playing the role of a box to box midfielder, that assists in the attack. It is still unclear if Moutinho will play that role the whole 90 minutes or if he allows the full backs to push on the wings instead and he sits back. Either way, his price tag is very cheap for a midfielder and would be worth considering for a cheap flyer in all formats.

Demarai Gray, Leicester, Forward, $5,600 DK, $7,500 FD – With the departure of Mahrez, Gray is one of those players that will take some of his responsibilities. He’s cheap enough to warrant a selection if he does get the start. But as usual with value players, it’s difficult to know who exactly starts every week leaving us to wait till the lineups are announced prior to lock to fit the value plays in our teams.

About the Author

hambazaza
Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza)

At the intersection of sports and mathematics you’ll find Hesh Hambazaza as a staunch believer that numbers really can explain everything. Along with working as a RotoGrinders editor, Hambazaza contributes to RotoGrinders in Soccer coverage as well as a contributor to RotoAcademy highlighting Vegas as a useful tool. When he’s not devoting countless hours to DFS a week, Hambazaza can be found working as a father, husband and electrical engineer on various NASA projects.