EPL Daily Plays: Saturday, August 25th

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2018-08-31 03:29:24

Before we get into the plays for Matchweek 3, I wanted to talk a little about accountability. If you don’t really care about all this and want to just get to the picks, then go ahead and skip down to the section highlighted “Cash Plays” and read from there; otherwise, hang on, I’m about to skewer myself.

For years I’ve been providing advice on which picks to select and how the game type should play out. Until this season I usually wrote the Grind Down and in it I broke down each matchup and gave a preferred 1-3 plays from each team that you could target. This tended to be a rather large article with anywhere between 25 and 40 players highlighted. The article took a considerable bit of effort, and more often than not, may have been too much information to digest. This season I’ve transitioned to a more focused article. The focus is on cash plays (players with solid floors), tournament plays (players with high ceilings), and value plays (players who’s production should outpace their salary).

One thing I’d like to add to my articles every week is a self-evaluation section, where I look back at my picks and offer an overview of how well they performed with some self reflection. This not only helps me as a writer/tout (which, by the way, I hate that word) but also helps you evaluate whether my advice is worth taking. I know I could end up costing myself a pretty sweet gig writing about fantasy soccer, but if I wasn’t giving you the best advice I could give, then maybe I shouldn’t be doing it.

In my head, I’ve floated the idea about grading picks for the last few years. I could do a pure FPPG (fantasy points per game) average, but that could end up skewing the results if I only pick the top plays every week (surprise, Mo Salah will score goals!). The other option is to come up with a secondary evaluation metric, one that would encompass items such as touches in the final third, and chances created, but that might end up being too complicated and may need to be re-explained every week. The benefits to that method is that it could be the most accurate as it would register good plays even if variance takes over and you end up with a low fantasy total. I finally settled on a metric that compares how my players did relative to their season average for an objective measurement. Of course, this won’t be useful until the season average has more than 180 minutes (maximum) played, so this week it’ll be hard to put it to a test. But I will include it for my week 2 picks nonetheless. Again, these stats are for DraftKings, the table shows a comparison of how my picks from week 2 fared relative to their season average (this also includes their week 2 performances…) Note, that I didn’t include clean sheets, penalty kick misses and yellow/red cards in my calculations as these things are not factors that you can account for when projecting a player’s performance, this it would do no good in trying to guess them ahead of time.

So overall, the selections last week weren’t bad, if you had selected all my players and built teams around them, you would have scored more than their average points. But this doesn’t tell you if the players I selected were the best options on the slate or not (Relative to their season average), overall, the top performers on the week were all goal scorers, and as long as we keep selecting those players (last week cash plays highlighted 1 goal scorer, and 1 assist man. I didn’t select some of the obvious high floor plays (obvious area of improvement) like Trippier, Moutinho (who was listed as a value play) and Gudmundsson. The tournament selections had two goals and a post, and Jimenez was close to scoring a goal as well.

So, maybe I can do better this week, my goal will be to break down the top plays from a cash perspective as well as for tournaments, then try to give you a couple of value plays that may not be selected by others.

If you’ve skipped ahead, this is where you can start reading for Week 3 picks

Cash Plays

Mohamed Salah, Forward/Midfielder, Liverpool, $11,300 DK, $12,500 FD – Liverpool play the late game this week where they host Brighton in Anfield. Salah is an obvious play as he’s already got a goal and an assist on 10 shots in two weeks. Salah is the highest floor of any forward in all of the Premier League and that should continue this week as Brighton are not a very strong defensive side while Liverpool should have an easy go at it offensively.

Ryan Fraser, Midfielder, Bournemouth, $8,500 DK, $8,000 FD – Fraser and Bournemouth are at home, but they face a tough Everton side. The match will be close with most bookies split on the outcome. The lines still indicate that there will be goals on both sides of this matchup which means that Fraser should get some play this week. Fraser is the do-it-all midfielder for Eddie Howe’s team, and he’s good at it. He’s been successful at what he does best, which is distributing the ball to his teammates, he even has a goal (off of one shot on target). But Fraser has an assist as well to go along with 11 total crosses and 5 chances created. If Bournemouth were to score goals this week then Fraser will have to do well.

Gylfi Sigurdsson, Midfielder/Forward, Everton, $7,100 DK, $8,000 FD – Sigurdsson played a little better in matchday 2 than he did in matchday 1, and his manager afforded him a full match display. He didn’t score or assist last week and there are probably plenty of people that are jumping ship on him. I think he has potential with this team, still. He has six chances created so far this season and his expected assists (xA) are at 0.51, which is a decent rate, after what was essentially a game and a half of action. Siggy has a good chance to secure points this week through peripherals for an Everton side that should press Bournemouth in their own half and create chances.

James Milner, Midfielder, Liverpool, $7,800 DK, $8,500 FD – I like Liverpool a lot this week, there are plenty of directions to go with them, chief among them are the three forwards (Salah, Mane, Firmino), but if you wanted to get a player that is peripheral heavy and relies on penalties, then maybe you should take a look at James Milner. Milner has a solid floor of crosses and free kicks (he is on set pieces for this team), and his upside exists from potential assists and from the penalty spot, where he converted last week.

James Maddison, Midfielder, Leicester, $7,600 DK, $9,000 FD – When Mahrez left, there was a void in attacking creativity left in the Leicester front line. James Maddison was brought in as a young player to potentially replace that void. Maddison won’t completely replicate what Mahrez did for this team in previous seasons, but he will provide an outlet for the midfield to transition the attack. This ultimately leads to crosses and potential for shots on target. This week, the team will be without Jamie Vardy who is suspended for three matches. This is a good opportunity for Maddison to step up and try to do more for his team, and the matchup is ideal for this experiment as Leicester play an underwhelming Southampton team.

Trent Alexander-Arnold, Defender, Liverpool, $6,600 DK, $6,500 FD – As I mentioned earlier, I like Liverpool this week and Trent Alexander-Arnold is key to that. He’s been a solid open play crosser this season with 13 crosses last week and six the week before that. He’s also solid defensively as he tracks back and defends giving his team a chance at a clean sheet.

Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Midfielder, Arsenal, $8,600 DK, $9,500 FD – Arsenal don’t have a specific cash play, but with Ozil taking a seemingly step back, Mkhitaryan has picked up the slack and over two game weeks has put in some nice performances. Mkhitaryan has always been a better real life player than fantasy player, but this Arsenal squad are a very big favourite (not as big as Liverpool). I expect that Micky will be involved in the Arsenal attack and if Arsenal score 2-3 goals he should have his hand in a couple of them.

Tournament Plays

Sadio Mane, Forward/Midfield, Liverpool, $10,700 DK, $11,500 FD – With everybody paying up for Salah and with Sane being just $600 cheaper, its unlikely that people will be rostering both of them or not choosing to pay up for Salah. There will be enough value in tournaments once lineups come out that people will just spend the extra salary and get Salah who is very likely to score. Mane is the pivot from that selection and a play that a lot of teams will go to for pivoting. That makes him a good GPP play, but not too contrarian. His teammate Firmino will be even less owned and is much cheaper at $8.8K though and is worth another look.

P. E. Aubameyang, Arsenal, Forward, $8,800 DK, $11,000 FD – Aubameyang had a tough first two games where he didn’t score a goal and had five total shots. He had four of those last week against Chelsea where he hit the post and got close another time with a sitter. I think that Aubameyang will score this week, and he wouldn’t surprise me if he had couple of goals. Pairing him with Ozil or Mkhitaryan in GPPs might be a viable path for your lineup.

Callum Wilson, Bournemouth, Forward, $7,400 DK, $8,500 FD – Bournemouth and Everton will score goals. Wilson has emerged as a solid player on this squad and is back to his former self and seems fully recovered from his ACL injury two seasons ago. I think Wilson scores another goal this week and comes through as a solid tournament selection. He’s also got some floor so I can see him being selected for cash games.

Richarlison, Everton, Forward, $7,900 DK, $10,500 FD – Richarlison is likely a heavily owned player after everybody watched him score three goals in two matches. In previous seasons this matchup ended up being a high scoring one and this week should be no different. I Expect that Richarlison will come through with some chances, and while he’s going to be highly owned, a good pivot from him will be Tosun or even Walcott (who scored last week). But I like all three of them for tournaments.

Kelechi Iheanacho, Leicester, Forward, $6,100 DK, $8,000 FD – With Vardy being suspended for three matches, the likely starter will be Iheanacho, and that gives us a solid forward to pick for a not so high price tag. Leicester are going against Southampton on the road, so it’s not a bad matchup. If Iheanacho doesn’t start then Okazaki is a great play for the price (more on him later)

Marko Arnautovic, West Ham, Midfielder/Forward, $5,900 DK, $8,500 FD – Arsenal have shown that they are weak defensively with their new coach to start the season. I don’t expect that to have changed by week 3, but it should get better throughout the season. That also means that I think this match ends as a 2-1 or 3-1 for Arsenal, and the goal will come from somebody in the front line. My guess is that it would come from Arnautovic as he’s a solid player who will score some goals this season. For a very cheap price tag that is based on the matchup, Arnautovic is a good play.

Andrew Robertson, Liverpool, Defender, $6,000 DK, $7,000 FD – The other fullback for Liverpool should get some chances this week. TAA will get most of the free kick and corners, but Robertson is a solid open play crosser and with Liverpool being in possession for most of the match, I think he’ll get his opportunities to come through this week with a few chances that can lead to goals or assists.

Ben Chilwell, Leicester, Defender, $5,500 DK, $5,500 FD – If you want to get a solid floor defender but don’t want to pay up for the late game fullbacks, then Chilwell is a good alternative. As mentioned earlier, Leicester is on the road, but I am not a big fan at all of Southampton outside of some value plays then Chilwell might be a potential option for this team.

Value Plays

Shinji Okazaki, Leicester, Forward, $4,800 DK, $7,500 FD – Okazaki is finally fit enough to play, if he gets the start I like him as a goal scorer more than Iheanacho. Again Leicester should win this game or at least get close to scoring a few times, if Shinji starts then he will get 2-3 shots and hopefully convert one of them.

Joe Ralls, Cardiff, Midfielder, $4,800 DK, $7,500 FD – I’ve completely ignored this match because these two teams are the absolutely worst teams so far this season. There is some value though, while Cardiff are on the road, they have appeared more DFS friendly as they are a team that crosses the ball a good bit and that leaves players like Ralls and Hoilette as potential options. Ralls has the majority of set pieces so I’ve picked him, but Hoilette is another good option that has forward eligibility. You can also go to Huddersfield plays, but really, if you’re having to get more than one player from this match then you’re already hurting yourself as this game has 0-0 or 1-0 written all over it.

Mario Lemina, Southampton, Midfielder, $4,000 DK, $7,000 FD – While Southampton are the team that I hate the most in DFS, Lemina has emerged as their most active player on the team and at times was looking like their best option going forward. This has translated to an assist and 6 shots so far this season. He also gets back on defense and gets interceptions and tackles, but is prone to committing fouls, so he giveth and he taketh away. That said, Lemina is just $4K on DK and probably worth taking in any format if you need the salary relief.

Joe Bennett, Cardiff, Defender, $4,200 DK, $5,500 FD – Bennett is the placeholder salary-friendly defender that should get forward some. I’m ok with taking either fullbacks on Cardiff or the ones on Huddersfield in this place. Or, any other fullback that should spread the game out. But I’d likely just skip taking Bennett altogether if given a different option.

Goalkeepers

Asmir Begovic, Bournemouth, $4,800 DK, $5,500 FD – In a match that should feature plenty of goals I’m hesitant to recommend a goalkeeper from this one, but goals come from shots and Begovic is a solid keeper that can make saves. I expect that he’ll be low owned and thus the potential for tournaments is high. Otherwise, you can go with Huddersfield keeper as he’s at home and in a very low scoring match.

Petr Cech, Arsenal, $5,700 DK, $5,500 FD – The safety of a big favorite while also having the potential for saves comes with Petr Cech. As mentioned earlier, Arsenal are bad defensively right now, that means that they are faced with the possibility that opponents will get shots off and they’ll have to trust that Cech can make a few saves to help them earn their first three points of the season. Arsenal aren’t walking out of this match with less than three points and even if they concede I think Cech ends up with 3-5 saves giving him double digits at least.