EPL Daily Plays: Saturday, September 1st
Last week was tough. If you played, you saw that there were four different red cards awarded, the most notable player from that group is Richarlison, who was sent off for a dubious red card and ended up being a 26% owned player with a -2 points accumulated. He was recommended in last week’s article, but he was recommended with trepidation, as a tournament play who will be highly owned.
Elsewhere, my cash plays did well, my recommended set of players were Salah (1 goal, 22.25 DK pts), Fraser (12.3 DK), Sigurdsson (1 assist, 14.5 DK), Milner (8.25 DK), Maddison (6 DK), Trent Alexander-Arnold (hit the post, 11.25 DK), Mkhitaryan (9 DK), while the tournament plays had a bit more trouble, with just a single goal among those selected and with Richarlison getting that red card. Nevertheless, it’s a new week and it’s time to look forward to week 4 contests.
This week in EPL will be an interesting one, there are six matches in the main slate, so it’s more than we usually get, and two of them are heavy favorites in Chelsea and Manchester City. I suspect that the majority of the plays will focus heavily on them, and you can predict that in tournaments picking the right players from both those teams will make or break your team. Though, everybody will be on those, and maybe winning a GPP will depend on picking a star player from outside these two matches.
Cash Plays
Benjamin Mendy, Defender, Manchester City, $7,300 DK, $8,000 FD – He’s been one of the most consistent players in terms of fantasy production both in DFS and other formats. Mendy plays the fullback position perfectly as he pushes forward on offense and tracks back on defense not letting opponents get comfortable. He’ll have the added benefit of playing against a Newcastle team that has already shown they are not afraid of parking the bus with all 11 players in their half hoping for a counter-attack goal. Mendy also leads the league in crosses, and is second in touches in the final third behind Hazard. He has three assists so far and with City expected to run through this season, Mendy will be a fixture in this article throughout the season. The one detriment however is his price tag, but he’s a guaranteed double digits with easy potential for 20+ points every week.
Gylfi Sigurdsson, Midfielder/Forward, Everton, $7,900 DK, $9,500 FD – After being subbed off in the first half in gameweek 1 for tactical reasons, many fantasy mangers were wondering if Sigurdsson would carry the load for Everton as previously assumed. However, GW2 and GW3 have eased most of the concerns. In these two matches he’s had 8 chances created for his team, 13 crosses, and delivered an assist last week. This week without Richarlison, the ball should flow more freely and Sigurdsson should find himself getting more opportunities to pass the ball around and get more crosses.
Eden Hazard, Midfielder/Forward, Chelsea, $10,800 DK, $11,500 FD – The league leader in touches in the final third, despite not starting in two matches is Eden Hazard. Hazard is standing to benefit from Sarri-ball the most so far this season with freedom to attack and without having to worry about coming back on defense. He has two assists and a goal so far this season and has shown that he truly is one of the best players in the world, continuing the form he showed in the World Cup. Hazard is expensive, but with Chelsea and City being the two biggest favorites, you’ll want at least two players from either of these teams on your rosters in order to maximize your floor and scoring potential.
Sergio Aguero, Forward, Manchester City, $11,100 DK, $12,500 FD – If you don’t choose Hazard, then the next logical choice at that price tag is Sergio Aguero. Aguero will have a hard time with Newcastle’s physical defense but he’s a crafty player who is in good form to open the season with 2 goals scored in the community shield and a hat-trick scored against Huddersfield in GW2. His floor is still 7-10 points without a goal, so I like Hazard a little bit more than him, but honestly you can’t go wrong with either one.
Mohamed Elyounoussi, Midfielder, Southampton, $6,600 DK, $7,500 FD – When Elyounoussi plays, Southampton seem to have purpose and direction. The team that has frustrated DFS players for the last three seasons appeared at first to continue to do so without a defined starting lineup. Elyounoussi played two matches so far and in each one he’s had solid returns. In his last outing, a start against Leicester, he delivered 10 crosses and ended with 15 DK points. This week against Crystal Palace, I expect more of the same with the potential for an assist in there.
Marcos Alonso, Defender, Chelsea, $6,700 DK, $7,.500 FD – Another expensive defender to consider is Marcos Alonso. I can see several lineup constructions with Hazard/Mendy or Aguero/Alonso to get you exposure to both teams with their more likely producers. Alonso has been a goal scorer for this team and will continue to threaten from his defensive position. He’s a solid option and likely to be decently owned because he’s cheaper than Mendy.
Luka Milivojevic, Midfielder, Crystal Palace, $5,500 DK, $7,500 FD – Looking for cash eligible plays in a cheap range is tough, but Milivojevic is fitting the bill so far this season. He’s still responsible for penalties for Palace, and going against a Southampton team he might get one this week, as Southampton are second in the league in fouls committed so far this season and already suffered from a red card and 5 yellow cards in just three matches.
Tournament Plays
Alvaro Morata, Forward, Chelsea, $8,000 DK, $10,500 FD – Morata is very cheap on DK and from the looks of it has exorcised his demons. This matchup against Bournemouth is a good opportunity to show his goal scoring ways and cement his spot as the starter for this Chelsea squad. I think he gets some chances this week and wouldn’t be surprised to see him low owned with players going for Hazard over him and foregoing rostering the Chelsea forward.
Raheem Sterling, Midfielder/Forward, Manchester City, $9,900 DK, $11,000 FD – With Manchester City being the late game as well as the best offensive threat on the slate, it’s hard to know which players to go with. We know that Sterling is probably going to get the start, and that if he does that he’ll get a lot of time on the ball (see the paragraph on Aguero above). Sterling is more of a dribble-pass attacking midfielder who will try to break down Newcastle defense, that will give him plenty of outside shots and maybe some key passes. He’s a solid play on both DK and FD but because of his status being unconfirmed as a starter, he’s likely just a tournament play.
Riyad Mahrez, Midfielder/Forward, Manchester City, $9,800 DK, $8,500 FD – Similar to Sterling, Mahrez is a good attacking mid to target in this matchup. If he starts along with Sterling then I suspect that his position will likely be to cross the ball into the box and take on set pieces for City. Again because of his price and the opponent likely playing with a 9 man back line, Mahrez will not have the freedom to move too much, which will make him a tough cash play and more of a tournament play alone.
Pedro, Midfielder/Forward, Chelsea, $8,400 DK, $11,000 FD – If patterns hold, then Pedro will continue to start for Chelsea on the opposite wing from Hazard. He’s certainly earned the right to keep his position on the pitch with goals in his first two matches and 7 DK points last time out. At home he should have himself another good match. If Willian does get the start in Pedro’s place I would hesitate to roster both Hazard and Willian as they will eat at each other’s floor.
Aleksandar Mitrovic, Forward, Fulham, $7,500 DK, $9,500 FD – Mitrovic has been great in 2018 and has opened his premier league 2018/19 account with three goals including two in his last matchup for Fulham. A matchup on the road to Brighton isn’t a bad one but it is on the road, but Mitrovic can still come through. If you want to go away from the guy who scored twice last time out then you can pivot to Schurrle from the same team who looked dynamic and just as deadly last time out with a goal scored and three chances created.
Antoine Rudiger, Defender, Chelsea, $3,900 DK, $5,500 FD – to fit in all those high priced players you’ll need to punt some positions, the most likely position to punt is defender and Rudiger fits the bill. With Chelsea being favorites at home, they’ll likely press the ball forward looking for goals. Rudiger came close to scoring up in Newcastle last weekend and might get a chance again this week with a match against Bournemouth at Stamford Bridge. He’s priced at just $3.9K on DK and will be featured in set pieces where he might try to poach a goal.
Theo Walcott, Forward, Everton, $7,400 DK, $10,000 FD – Without Richarlison, Everton will have somebody step up, the expectation is that Walcott will continue playing the same role as he has the last couple of weeks, but that has resulted in a high ceiling for the forward who has scored in two straight games and has an assist. A matchup against lowly Huddersfield should be plenty of opportunity to take advantage of for DFS purposes. His price tag on DK is appealing and would go well in tournaments.
Callum Wilson, Forward, Bournemouth, $6,000 DK, $7,500 FD – In an opportunity against a strong team on the road, Wilson could come through here. Chelsea have already shown that they are weak against quick forwards that can cut through the defense. Wilson may not be that dynamic of a forward, but he’s a good striker and he’s the best that Bournemouth have, though King is a good alternative. Either of them would make for fine tournament plays as Chelsea’s clean sheet chances are probably slim despite them being heavy favorites.
Wilfried Zaha, Midfielder/Forward, Crystal Palace, $8,800 DK, $10,000 FD – Because of his high price tag and because everybody wants to get pieces of City and Chelsea, Zaha will go virtually unselected. I expect less than 8% ownership, and for a player like Zaha on a team that is the fourth highest favorite on the slate, he can deliver on that price tag. You’ll need a goal and peripherals though which is why I have him as a tournament play because the opportunity cost to taking him is high.
Marko Arnautovic, Forward, West Ham, $6,700 DK, $10,500 FD – He will be very low owned, but I’ve included him in my selections for the last two weeks and he’s delivered each time. This week he’s got an easier matchup and his price is still low, so if he gets the start, I’m all for selecting him in your lineup. He’s got a knee injury that forced him off last time out, but if he gets the start then you can assume that his knee is good and he’s ready to go.
Ruben Neves, Midfielder, Wolverhampton, $6,100 DK, $7,000 FD – Neves is only here because he’s on penalties for Wolves. With Wolves playing West Ham, they’ll likely get lots of free kick opportunities and may even get a penalty shot. The Hammers have struggled mightily on defense this season because of Joe Hart for reasons unknown, and because of this are probably a team likely to give up easy opportunities or force defenders to commit stupid fouls that lead for set piece opportunities, which is where Neves comes in.
Value Plays
Florent Hadergjonaj, Defender, Huddersfield, $3,900 DK, $4,500 FD – A cheap option that works for cash games is Hadergjonaj. In an open match he was able to get 7 crosses against both Chelsea and Cardiff. The match against Everton is expected to be similar in that Hudderfield will have some possession and will use that possession out on the wings where they’ll have to cross the ball into the middle. Hadergjonaj is the guy for that on this team and his cheap price tag makes him an excellent play for salary saving.
Christian Benteke, Forward, Crystal Palace, $6,000 DK, $7,000 FD – He’s bound to score sometime right? He’s the forward with the most shots on target so far this season without a goal scored (tied with Eriksen and Tosun). At $6K you can easily fit him in with some other expensive options and get yourself a solid tournament team that can really take off if he scores a goal. He’s not a sure thing to score this week, but I do think he ends the season with 5-10 goals and this means he has to score some weeks. This matchup is a good one for him to come through.
Goalkeepers
Alex McCarthy, Southampton, $4,300 DK, $5,000 FD – McCarthy has at least three saves in every one of his matches and is behind a weak defense that will give up a lot of shots. This is a GPP play and he’s cheap with high potential. He’s on the road, but there isn’t a cheap home option keeper this week. You can also go with Fulham’s keeper as another cheap GK option.
Ederson, Manchester City, $6,000 DK, $5,500 FD – If you want to pay up for GK (I don’t like it) then Ederson should be your choice. I don’t think he concedes a goal, but I also don’t think that Newcastle get a shot on target meaning that his floor and upside are probably both very close to 10 points. At $6K you’re giving up other players with more upside to fit him in, but for safety, he’s as safe as it gets this week.