EPL Daily Plays: Saturday September 22nd
The hardest thing to do in DFS soccer is establishing your baseline players. Many times, I can spend the week researching the matchups and thinking how a manager would adjust his starting eleven and build my lineups accordingly, only to be stunned on Saturday morning with a substitution or a late change due to an undisclosed injury (thanks Mendy). That of course leads to a change in lineup and potential mistakes. The ideal way to combat this is to plan contingencies to your selections. But a change in lineup doesn’t just mean a pivot from one crosses to another, sometimes, it can change how a team sets up and attacks altogether. The best example of this would be with a team like Chelsea, where the number of crosses the team puts in relies on whether or not Hazard is on the pitch. In their Europa League match without Hazard, the team had 28 crosses, with 15 of them coming from Willian. The previous week when Chelsea played against Cardiff, they only crossed the ball 15 times total with Willian not starting and Hazard and Azpilicueta splitting crosses (Hazard off corners, Azpilicueta from open play). Marcos Alonso has been notably absent from the crossing game under Sarri, though not by much.
So this week, when looking at your lineups on Saturday morning, be sure to consider any changes in starting eleven as potential strategy changes, maybe the removal of a player indicates that a team will play more on the wings to overcome the lack of a penetrating number 10, or maybe if a team plays with 3 in the back, and are a big underdog on the road, then the full backs will sit back more and will get fewer touches in the opposition final third. These things can make or break your lineups, and are what make the difference between the sharks and the minnows.
Moving to the contests this week, we have seven matches with four of our top six in play (Chelsea and Arsenal played on Thursday in Europe, so they will feature on Sunday). The matches on Saturday are juicy however, with plenty of options to consider and many important decisions for your lineups. We’ll start first with the cash game selections, then transition to some quick hitter tournament options and combos, and finally give a run down on goalkeepers. So let’s start.
Cash Plays
Mohamed Salah, Liverpool, M/F, $10,400 DK, $11,000 FD – Salah has not started off as hot as many expected him to this season after lighting up the Premier League last season. The Egyptian King has converted just two goals and an assist on the season, and made a costly mistake in Liverpool’s Champions League fixture against PSG that allowed the second goal to be conceded. Salah will have slept on that mistake knowing that his teammates bailed him out and won the game despite that mistake, but you know that he’s itching to prove himself. The big question is whether he’s been performing badly or just getting unlucky. The best indicator of “luck” in previous matchups is expected goals (xG), and while that doesn’t indicate future performance, it’s a good barometer for previous success/failure. Salah has an xG of ~3.5 goals and an xA of ~1.5 assists. So he’s been a little unlucky so far this season. The team is getting him the ball in the right place, as he has 144 touches in the final third, with 23 shots(second in league), 16 chances created (tied for 1st), 9 shots on target (second in league), and top five in xG – G difference. If you played him against Tottenham or Leicester you would have been disappointed as he failed to crack double digit points, and he didn’t pass the eye test against Paris Saint Germain. Despite all that, his matchup this week is at home against Southampton, I expect that he will bounce back in a big way. Southampton have conceded the second most chances from the right side, where Salah plays primarily, and Salah will likely be marked by a combination of Bertrand and Hoedt, neither of which truly scare me as “Salah Stoppers”.
Leroy Sane, Manchester City, M/F, $8,700 DK, $8,500 FD – Sane got the start last week and put up some solid peripheral numbers. He then backed up his performance with a solid shift off the bench in the Champions League. This week with a matchup against Cardiff where City are HUGE favorites, I expect that Sane will start again. He will be on set pieces and likely the main cash play option on City this week. If Mahrez starts then he does eat a little into Sane’s production as he’s more likely to be a dribble-first attacking mid similar to what Hazard does for Chelsea. Alternatively, Sterling could also be a cash consideration but his floor depends on shots.
Johann Berg-Gudmundsson, Burnley, M/F, $7,900 DK, $7,500 FD – He may be the only player on the slate with a monopoly on set pieces. What that means is that he has the most chances at getting corner crosses, as well as free kicks that can lead to assists, goals, or crosses into the box. This elevates his floor tremendously. It also helps that Burnley is playing Bournemouth that have allowed the third most crosses in the league so far this season, and Burnley being out of European competition have had time to rest and build up their stamina to fight for a place in the top half of the table for the rest of the season.
Kieren Trippier, Tottenham, D, $6,400 DK, $7,000 FD – After being rested in the matchup with Inter in the midweek, Trippier should be back in the starting XI for the Spurs. I don’t expect that his ownership will be high due to the high price tag, but his production should be cash game worthy as he enters this matchup with the joint lead in the league in crosses and with Tottenham looking to get out of a three game losing streak, they’ll need to play the attacking football that they know they can play.
Florent Hadergjonaj, Huddersfield, D, $3,900 DK, $4,500 FD – A decent defender in a good matchup and has offered peripheral stats at a low price in recent weeks. At just $3.9K Hadergjonaj provides 2-3x when things click. He’s going against Leicester who have not looked superb this season, but are a better team, but that is not really worrying as his cheap price tag allows us to take other more expensive options.
Rachid Ghezzal, Leicester, M, $5,300 DK, $6,000 FD – Between Ghezzal and Maddison, one of them is a solid option. The toughest part is selecting the right player. Maddison takes opportunities away from Ghezzal, but Maddison is much more expensive at $8.2K. I love Maddison more if Ghezzal doesn’t start, but I like Ghezzal A LOT without Maddison. With both starting together, I’m leaning towards Maddison however, I don’t think his price tag helps.
Fred, Manchester United, M, $3,600 DK, $8,500 FD – Fred was on corners in the Champions League match for Manchester United, and the team is now a big favorite against a tough Wolves team. I think that United will play well in this one and that players such as Shaw, Pogba, Alexis, and Lukaku will perform well, however, without set pieces, none of them truly have a high floor that makes them optimal cash plays. This leaves us with players such as Fred, Fred is very cheap on DK, but expensive on FD. If United do start Fred then he’s a must play for me, especially with Matic and Rashford missing out on this one for suspensions due to red cards.
Aaron Mooy, Huddersfield, M, $5,400 DK, $8,000 FD –
Tournament Options
Sergio Aguero, Manchester City, F, $10,300 DK, $12,500 FD – Aguero just signed a new contract extension with City for an extra year. Since his arrival in the Premier League, nobody has scored more goals than him, and his streak of almost a goal a game is impressive. I expect that he’ll get the start again this week (although, Gabriel Jesus may get the nod instead) and whoever starts has a great chance at a goal or two.
Romelu Lukaku, Manchester United, F, $8,900 DK, $11,500 FD – Lukaku is a beast of a goal scorer. He scored goals in three out of five matches so far this season and has 4 goals, including three in his last two Premier League games. I think he scores again this week against the Wolves, his price tag is very forgiving and with the presence of Salah, Aguero and Kane, I expect that Lukaku’s ownership percentage will be low.
Roberto Firmino, Liverpool, M/F, $8,400 DK, $11,000 FD – I considered Sadio Mane in this slot, but Firmino gets the nod for me as he’s been the most active attacking player for Liverpool. He came off the bench in the midweek and scored the game winner for the Reds against PSG. Firmino was originally expected to miss out because of an eye injury sustained last weekend, but after scoring, he’s proven that he is not affected by that knock. He’s cheaper than all the other options on Liverpool and for his price tag, he’s almost a must play if you can fit him in for tournaments.
Callum Wilson, Bournemouth, F, $6,500 DK, $8.500 FD – He’s at 2 goals and 2 assists. I don’t expect him to keep the assist numbers up, but the goals should hit double figures this season provided he stays healthy. Wilson has skill and is in good form, which matters a lot in DFS. His price is manageable on both sites and his ability to deliver in a matchup against a weaker side like Burnley is a key factor to consider this week.
Wilfried Zaha, Crystal Palace, M/F, $8,100 DK, $9,500 FD – He’s been the most important cog in the Crystal Palace wheel for the last three seasons. When he plays well, the team wins. When he doesn’t play well, they don’t. This week he’s got a defensively sound Newcastle side which makes things a bit tough for him, hence the tournament designation. I think he’d normally be a cash option, but I’m waiting on the right matchup and the price to drop a bit. In the meantime, feel free to use him in tournaments where he can come through with a few shots, or maybe even a goal or assist.
Raul Jimenez, Wolverhampton, F, $5,900 DK, $8,500 FD – Jimenez is a solid number 9 playing for an attack minded team. United have shown that they have cracks in their armor, and they really don’t a solid foundation with Mourinho who is close to losing control every week. The Red Devils are on a good run as of late, but I think they will give up a goal. Jimenez is the most likely goal scorer for Wolves and his potential is high. He likes to shoot a lot (17 shots in 5 games) and he’s converted on two of those shots so far. For his price, he’s worth taking a flyer on.
Goalkeepers
Rui Patricio, Wolverhampton, $3,900 DK, $5,000 FD – If expectations hold, I suspect that United will struggle to get many touches in the 18-yard box and thus most of their shots will be from tough angles and from outside the box. At just $3.9K I think that Patricio will get at least 4-5 saves and may even keep a clean sheet. If he does concede then he’s not hurt that bad as he can still get 6+ points on DK off of saves alone. He’s very cheap and worth the consideration.
Mat Ryan, Brighton, $4,100 DK, $4,500 FD – He’s the late game and the home underdog I am likely to pick in my teams. Ryan is going against a Tottenham team that is struggling to keep up with their heavy schedule. The Spurs look tired and Ryan is a solid keeper that has good hands and good positioning. At just $4.1K and $4.5K on DK and FD respectively, he’s likely to be a popular choice for those looking to pay down at keeper.
Ederson, Manchester City, $6,000 DK, $6,000 FD – Cardiff should not threaten the City goal at all, which means it’ll be an easy night for Ederson and an easy 10 points on DK with the clean sheet and the win. He’s the safest option and the least likely to concede a goal (or shot on target) of any of the keepers on display Saturday.