EPL Daily Plays: Wednesday, February 11th
We had a fun day yesterday with several exciting games, including a 3-2 nail-biter in Anfield. We saw some expected performances, like a Harry Kane goal, and a David Ospina dominant game. We also saw some unexpected performances, including a rare QPR away win and a super Mario Balotelli goal to clinch the win for Liverpool. Overall, it was a fun afternoon of football, and the good news is we get to do it again today.
Except this time, we have a bigger slate, some more stars to roster and some more big GPPs to explore on DraftKings. Be sure to pay attention to starting lineups around 1:45PM EST as that’s when they’ll be released, I’ll try to post them on twitter as they come in, so make sure to follow me there @DFS_hambazaza. Without further delays, here are the picks.
Goalkeeper
Thibaut Courtois, Chelsea – $5,400 – Chelsea is a huge favorite today against Everton and Courtois makes for the safest goalkeeper to get the win bonus. There aren’t a lot of guaranteed spots for keepers today, but Courtois looks to be in one of the best spots. While Courtois has not kept a clean sheet in 2015, he’ll be in a good spot today to stop the anemic Everton offense and makes for a good play.
David De Gea, Manchester United – $5,700 – De Gea makes for a solid pivot from the Chelsea keeper who is bound to be popular due to his price being slightly cheaper. Manchester United are also big favorites in this game and playing at home where they have won five of their last six matches. In those games they allowed a total of four goals making De Gea a great keeper for today’s uncertain slate.
Julian Speroni, Crystal Palace – $4,600 – Speaking of uncertain, it’s tough to pick a third keeper, but if I’m going cheap, I’m likely going to look the way of Speroni. He faces a Newcastle squad that has only scored six goals away from home in their last six games. Speroni should see plenty of supply for shots, which comes with the inherent risk of him not making the saves necessary for the +2 points. It’s a risk worth tolerating though and Speroni makes for a good cheap play.
Other Keepers I Like: Ben Foster, West Brom Albion – $4,500, Lukasz Fabianski, Swansea – $4,300
Defenders
Gael Clichy, Manchester City – $4,300 – In his last three games, Clichy has managed to provide the majority of his fantasy output in the form of crosses. Also worth noting is that I like City to receive either the clean sheet bonus or the 1GA bonus, so he makes for a good play in that regards. If you look beyond the standard stats, you’ll see that Clichy has actually contributed in other ways as well that haven’t shown up in the stat sheet, but can lead to goals and assists. He’s had a passing success rate of 86% in the opponent’s final third, with six chances created in his last four games. And while none of them have translated to assists, he has been in position to generate those stats and thus should be in consideration for your lineup today.
Kieran Trippier, Burnley – $4,600 – It doesn’t matter who the opponent is, or what the game script dictates, Burnley depend on Trippier to deliver crosses into the box and Trippier does his job well. In the last three games, Trippier has delivered 30 crosses to go along with several chances created that have been converted to only a single assist. He has assist potential as he takes corners for Burnley and he makes a safe cash game play with some GPP upside.
Joel Ward and Martin Kelly, Crystal Palace – $3,000 and $3,500 – Crystal Palace* – Crystal Palace makes for my GPP defense stack of choice on the day. At their cheap prices, Ward and Kelly both provide the low floor needed for such a stack as well as the upside that comes from the bonuses. Moreover, Ward has been very good at drawing fouls and delivering crosses in his last few games, while Kelly occasionally gets active in the offensive end and provides some supply for the attack.
Other Defenders I Like: Maya Yoshida, Southampton – $3,000, Branislav Ivanovic, Chelsea – $4,900, Marcos Rojo, Manchester United – $4,400, Carl Jenkinson, West Ham United $4,100
Midfielders
Eden Hazard, Chelsea – $9,000 – In basketball, you look at a player’s usage rate when a teammate misses a game. It’s similar in soccer, and in the last two games without Diego Costa, everybody expected the added opportunities to go to the selected forward, either Drogba or Remy. As it turned out, Hazard was the biggest beneficiary for the removal of Costa from the team. It helped that last game Fabregas was also out with an injury, but he should be back now. Also, be weary of Cuadrado entering the lineup this week, as he can take away from Hazard’s creativity and touches. However, I believe that Cuadrado will likely play a similar role to Willian in that he would lead the creative attacks from one side of the pitch, while Hazard handles the other side. All this does worry me, but Hazard is the most proven commodity in the Chelsea midfield right now and arguably the most talented. I’ll make sure to roster him in some teams, but I’ll sprinkle in some others depending on salary and fit.
Jesus Navas, Manchester City – $6,600 – A crossing machine, Navas is capable of getting the attack going for Manchester City. I suspect that City will have trouble with Stoke, however, as this Stoke team has been fairly above average at home recently, while City has been the second best offense away from home (after Chelsea). The last few games between these two sides have all been very low scoring affairs, but don’t let that scare you away from Navas, as he can get his production regardless of goals scored. Between crosses and his ability to sprint down the wing and receive through balls he is an excellent source of attack for City. In his last five games, he has had 33 crosses, 11 shots and 5 fouls drawn.
Other Midfielders I Like: Angel Di Maria – Manchester United ($9,300), Stewart Downing – West Ham United ($6,000), Jason Puncheon – Crystal Palace ($5,500), Juan Cuadrado – Chelsea ($6,200), Maroaune Fellaini – Manchester United ($4,700), Jonjo Shelvey – Swansea ($5,600), Yanick Bolasie – Crystal Palace (if he starts $6,000)
Forwards
Sergio Aguero, Manchester City – $10,400 – Aguero hasn’t scored since early December right before suffering an injury that forced him off after 7 minutes against Everton. In his return from injury in four games, he has had zero goals scored and his price has remained relatively the same since his return. So why am I recommending him? Aguero has had a 10 shot attempts in his last four games, with nine of those coming from inside the box. Of those, three shots have been on target and one has been blocked. He’s had one header attempt. Moreover, he’s had an attempt on goal every 30 minutes since he’s been back. He’s also created chances for his teammates with 5 total attempts created with 1 assist to show for it. He’s active in the offense and if you’ve watched City play you’ll see that he’s getting his chances and that should be enough to make you want to roster him today.
Saido Berahino, West Brom Albion – $7,500 – He’s a very talented youngster who has been scoring goals, he has nine on the year so far and will look to add more to his tally against the Swans. Berahino was dropped from the starting XI last time out but I believe that Pulis will look to bring him back in, probably next to Brown Ideye ($5,200), Ideye scored the equalizer over the weekend, but I believe Berahino has the better chance of scoring this week. I would be surprised with multiple goals in this game, as WBA have only scored four goals in their last six, but I’ll put my hat in the Berahino bucket for today.
Wayne Rooney, Manchester United – $10,300 – At his steep price tag and his recent performance, it’s crazy to recommend Rooney as a go-to striker for this current Manchester United squad. But there is rumbling of a change in formation and bringing Rooney back up. United have been the most successful this season when they’ve paired Rooney and Van Persie together up front. Van Gaal hinted that Rooney would eventually return to the striker role if the team needs it, and given their current position in the league table and the fight for a Champions League spot, they need all three points today from Burnley, maybe LVG decides to go back to the logical pairing of Rooney and Van Persie. I like Rooney of the three strikers because of the #narrativestreet that has developed of him not scoring in 2015 and how he’s on course to matching his longest streak without a goal at United. Rooney makes a great GPP play and a differentiation play if you want to separate yourself from the crowd. Note however, this pick is solely dependent on where Rooney slots in the formation, if he ends up starting as a midfielder, Falcao becomes my top forward from United with RVP a close second
Sadio Mane, Southampton – $5,800 – I had Elia in here at first, but realized that Mane had the cheaper price as well as the better form. Mane returned from the African Cup of Nations and resumed his sizzling form by scoring a goal when he returned last weekend. Elia is another fine choice for only $6,000, however, given his recent form, I’d be more comfortable with Mane in a cash game and Elia in a GPP.
Other Forwards I Like: Radamel Falcao – Manchester United ($8,600), Robin Van Persie – Manchester United ($9,800), Danny Ings ($6,500), Enner Valencia – West Ham United ($6,500), Peter Crouch – Stoke City ($6,000), Romelu Lukaku – Everton ($7,300), Graziano Pelle – Southampton ($8,500), Ayoz Perez – Newcastle ($6,900), Yaya Sonogo – Crystal Palace ($5,900)
I know I listed a lot of “others” today, but the slate is wide open and not a lot of players stand out as “must plays” which leaves this slate as a perfect GPP slate. Make sure to enter the many that are offered over on DraftKings as that allows them to build up the prize pools. Thanks for reading, and good luck.