EPL DFS Preview: Saturday, April 16th
Welcome back to another weekend of Daily Fantasy Soccer. This week has been lots of fun with soccer almost every day starting Tuesday with some Champions League (UCL) , Wednesday with more UCL, some English Premier League (EPL) and some Major League Soccer (MLS), Thursday with some Europa League (UCL’s little brother) and now for the weekend regular fixtures of MLS, EPL and some Liga MX! If you love soccer as much as I do, you’ll love all the action. And if you’re new to soccer, well, you’re in the right place because I’m here to guide you to building a lineup that may very well finish at the top of some of the weekend GPPs over on DraftKings.
This weekend, despite it’s disappointingly short game offering, should be very fun to break down. We have a Manchester United team hosting an already-relegated Aston Villa squad that will really struggle to put together a good run. We have Everton hosting Southampton in what should be a close back and forth affair. We also have a batter of two teams with very little to play for between West Brom and Watford as both teams are sitting on the cusp of safety and may settle for a point apiece here making this a potentially very dull affair. Then a fighting-for-its-life Newcastle hosts a Swansea team that may have secured Premier League safety after a win against Chelsea. Speaking of Chelsea they’re hosting a newly-victorious Manchester City squad that may be hungover from their Kevin De Bruyne-led heroics in the midweek UCL match with PSG. So how do we break this down?
Let’s start with the goalkeepers.
Goalkeepers
David De Gea, Manchester United $4,500 – As the biggest favorite on the board in a matchup against a team that will take long shots whenever they can (not a lot, but maybe one or two), De Gea makes for a great play in both cash and GPPs this weekend. He’s a tad expensive, which makes it hard to fit him everywhere, but he’s worth putting in your lineups if you can find the space to make it work.
Joe Hart, Manchester City $3,800 – One of my favorite places to target keepers is between two evenly matched teams (on paper) that should see plenty of ball movement between them. Chelsea and City should share possession this weekend, but I believe that City have more to play for and will ultimately come away with the win. Chelsea still have pride and will attack plenty (especially if they fall behind early), this should put Hart in position to make some saves. I don’t expect a clean sheet here, but the win is a good possibility.
Defenders
Jose Holebas, Watford $2,900 – Holebas has a nice floor in a matchup that shouldn’t see a lot of goals, but plenty of ball possession from both sides where they move the ball around the midfield a lot then try to break for an attack that can result in a cross or a corner. Holebas doesn’t take many crosses for this team, but he does take some shots and in an away game will be called upon to get some tackles and interceptions as well, both skills he is adept at.
Bryan Oviedo, Everton $3,100 – Leighton Baines faces a late fitness test and we’ll find out Saturday morning if he’s fit to go. If he’s not, then Oviedo should get the start at the fullback position and he should have some of the best upside of any full backs on this slate given how Everton like to attack when given the opportunity. Both Southampton and Everton love to cross the ball and usually funnel the ball to the wings to deliver crosses to target their tall forwards. If Oviedo does start, it’s also worth considering Seamus Coleman ($4,300) as he would be a decent pivot, but his price is too high to be able to afford some of the more reliable midfielders and marquee forwards.
Timothy Fosu-Mensah, Manchester United $3,000 – You saw the value of Fosu-Mensah defensively in the Tottenham match last weekend when he was removed early due to injury. Once Fosu-Mensah came off you saw Tottenham run United off the pitch with run after run on the left side exploiting Matteo Darmian. Mensah managed 11 fantasy points on tackles and interceptions in just 68 minutes. This matchup with Aston Villa should be different as United shouldn’t face a lot of pressure from the visitors, this you might see Fosu-Mensah pushing forward as part of the attack. He looked good against West Ham in the midweek, so there is no fear of the injury that pulled him early against the Spurs.
Midfielders
Kevin De Bruyne, Manchester City $7,500 – The Hero of Manchester returns to his former team where he was only awarded six matches with a total playing time of 158 minutes. Is he bitter? He claims he doesn’t hold a grudge, but if you’re a competitive athlete with the hunger to play and succeed, you probably want to eviscerate a team that has scorned you in such a way and shipped you off to Germany. Since his departure from Chelsea, De Bruyne actually managed to score 24 goals and record 34 assists in just two seasons, and most recently secured City’s advance to the Champions League semi-final by scoring a last gasp goal against PSG. If you want some statistical reason to get De Bruyne in your lineups, look no further than his crossing ability; his knack for finding teammates for assists and his corner kick duty.
Gylfi Sigurdsson, Swansea $7,700 – Most people will likely roster Gylfi Sigurdsson this weekend, and Gylfi will likely not disappoint them. His upside is unlimited as he is Swansea’s best goal scorer and is on penalty kick duty. He’s also got a very stable floor as he delivers plenty of crosses per game, the only risk is that Swansea may not be as hungry as they were last weekend as they all but secured safety following last weekends victory over Chelsea.
Andros Townsend, Newcastle $4,800 – Speaking of securing safety, Newcastle have not done that yet and are very desperate at the moment. The club and players know that it will be a long fight to return to the premier league if they fail to stay up, and thus the players will be pushing hard to get three points in a home match against a Swansea team that has shown cracks in the armor in the past. Townsend has a floor of five crosses and an upside of goal scoring. For a price of $4,800, he’s a must play.
Steven Davis, Southampton $3,800 – Davis might get the start this weekend for Southampton, and if he does he might find himself on corner kick duty which would put him as a must play for a team that loves to cross the ball. Southampton face against an Everton squad that has been weak in defensive ability, and allows the opposition to really pressure them on the wings.
Jefferson Montero, Swansea $3,200 – He’s shown some great ability at times this season and was an absolute beast last weekend against Chelsea as he terrorized the Blues back line time and time again. Montero won’t always get the crosses the way he did against Chelsea, but he’s worth considering if you need the salary relief.
Forwards
Diego Costa, Chelsea $6,900 – My preferred play here is Sergio Aguero as I believe he has more upside than Diego Costa in this matchup between Chelsea and Manchester City. However, due to Aguero’s price ($8.6K) and question about morale (he missed a Penalty Kick and almost cost City a chance to go through in the Champions League midweek fixture) I have to go with Costa in this one. Costa might be highly owned as I’ve seen him mentioned all over the place this week as a good play due to his return from the three match suspension. So, if you want to go with the lower owned option, Aguero might be that player. Costa does come back to a Chelsea squad looking to impress their new manager Conte, who is watching from the sidelines (or the television, whatever), and Costa will look to continue his good form prior to the suspension where he was involved with eight goals in nine matches.
Gerard Deulofeu, Everton $5,700 – Everton played in the midweek and Ross Barkley and Aaron Lennon both came out a bit hobbled, Deulofeu had the day off and should be back in the lineup this weekend and would be an excellent cash play with the upside of playing forward enough to score goals. Of course, there is a big contingent of players who are focused on Lukaku and his goal scoring ability, and I think that’s a good place to go for GPPs, maybe even pairing Lukaku with Deulofeu would be a good spot. Also worth considering is Graziano Pelle for very close to this price range in the same matchup that could feature lots of goals.
Marcus Rashford, Manchester United $5,600 – Rashford should get about 50-65 minutes of playing time with Wayne Rooney coming off the bench to replace him. United should win this match against Aston Villa with Rashford or Lingard the two most likely candidates to score goals if they do manage to score early and take a comfortable lead. Villa are capable of allowing three or more goals in a half, so I wouldn’t dismiss Rashford right away.