EPL DFS Targets: Boxing Day
It’s here! Boxing day is here and along with it DraftKings has given us a large GPP for this Saturday’s games. Of course what makes Boxing day so special is that it is a slate that includes ALL 20 teams in the Premier League battling it out and the fixtures are usually very exciting. This season is no different with and this slate is especially exciting as it gives us plenty of options to consider.
One thing that is key to recognize is that over the next 30 days all these teams will be playing six matches in the Premier League and with that squad rotation will factor very heavily. It also means that the January transfer window is upon us and teams will be making changes to stay competitive in the race or offloading some players in favor of the money they can return. So it’s important to monitor lineups and try to get a feel for what each team will be looking to do.
One thing this week that I’ll be trying to do is just focus on GPPs given the size of the tournaments that we’re dealing with. This means that most of my picks will be focused on who has the upside to score the most goals. However, if a play is worth consideration for cash games I’ll add that in there as well.
With that, let’s get on to the picks.
Goalkeepers
John Ruddy, Norwich $2,800 @ Tottenham – Opponents of Tottenham have averaged 5.27 saves per game this season, Tottenham lead the league in saves allowed by opponent which is an interesting fact that ties in the fact that the team includes players such as Christian Eriksen and Dele Alli and Harry Kane. All of whom take lots of shots, especially Eriksen who loves taking chances from outside to try to beat the keeper unaware. Those shots usually translate to saves for the opposing keeper. In their last five games opposing keepers have made 3, 7, 2, 4 and 8 saves. This bodes well for Ruddy who has multiple games of 3+ saves which sets him up as a sneaky GPP option at keeper for Saturday.
Joe Hart, Manchester City $4,400 vs Sunderland – If you’re not a fan of taking risks with your keeper or don’t want a keeper who will concede a goal and would rather go for a sure 10 points then hope for a save or two then Joe Hart is the keeper for you. City’s defense has been suspect lately but with the return of Kompany, that should shore up the defense a bit making it extra difficult for the black cats to score a goal against the Citizens.
If neither of these strike your fancy then an “in the middle option” is Adrian for West Ham. Coming off of three consecutive clean sheets and facing the worst team in the league, he may be highly owned and would not have the save potential. At least with Hart and City you can expect the win and the clean sheet is a higher probability event.
Defenders
Cedric Soares, Southampton $4,200 – Soares is as consistent as they get. In a position like defender where the player gets very few chances to attack and score goals, you want a consistent player who can get fantasy points in many different ways. Chief among them for Soares is crosses. He’s averaged 5 crosses a game this season and almost 3 tackles a game. Soares is not the high upside player you would take chances on, but sometimes, if you can guarantee your defenders to net you 10 points each then that’s a good return that is worth spending up on.
Daryl Janmaat, Newcastle $3,900 – Much like Soares, Janmaat carries that safe floor that allows you close to double digit points off of just crosses and shots. Janmaat however does carry some upside as he does have a goal and two assists on the season. With Newcastle playing against Everton this week, there won’t be a lot of ownership on Janmaat and he could easily contribute to a goal for the Newcastle side that has improved in recent weeks.
Aaron Cresswell, West Ham $4,300 – Cresswell and WHU are coming off of three consecutive clean sheets and Cresswell has been playing well in recent weeks. With 21 and 15 touches in the final third in his last two games you can expect him to increase that number this week. He’s also added interceptions and crosses to his floor so you can expect to see at least double digits in fantasy points with the potential for more.
Neil Taylor, Swansea $3,000 – You’re going to need value this week, and for value I may stray from my top two picks and instead fill my third defender spot with players who are unexpected starters who may be getting a spot start due to injury or as part of the rotation. However, every once in a while a play shows up that is right on the edge of value in Neil Taylor with Swansea. The Swans are facing West Brom at home and should be favored for a clean sheet with the Baggies facing some injury troubles. Taylor should get some run tomorrow and would be a good cheap option to consider.
Adam Smith, Bournemouth $3,000 – Adam Smith might be higher owned than expected due to his run of four games with double digit points produced on DraftKings. He’s been starting at full back for Bournemouth and should continue to do so this week against Crystal Palace. But for his price, you might be ok taking him regardless of ownership. Last week he rewarded his owners with a goal as well. Will that be repeated this week?
Midfielders
Dele Alli, Tottenham $4,300 – I’m going to list a lot of midfielders here because I feel this slate has plenty of potential with lots of midfielders in great spots to score goals or even just deliver a very high point total. For Dele Alli, he’s coming on very strong this season and at just 19 years old he’s been excellent recently. The expectation is that Tottenham will score, and that they will shoot a lot of goals (which is why we are targeting Norwich’s keeper, for the save potential). Alli is a good source of shots and potential assists.
Riyad Mahrez, Leicester $8,600 – I can’t stop recommending Mahrez when he’s leading the team at the top of the table and he’s taking their spot kicks, penalty kicks, and has most of their touches in the opponents third. Mahrez and Leicester face a tough task with their visit to Liverpool, but if Mahrez get any fantasy points those will come through Mahrez.
Jordan Veretout, Aston Villa $3,500 – West Ham has injuries this season to their top midfielders clearing the way for Veretout to get the start as he did the last several weeks. In fact Veretout has two games of 20+ fantasy points in the last four weeks. He’s taking corners for the squad and has three assists in his last four.
David Silva, Manchester City $5,800 – Silva has been back from injury for four weeks, but he hasn’t looked his prior self, and it has shown. However, with Aguero expected to be back this week, maybe this opens up the door for Silva to continue his dominant run of earlier in this season and return to posting 20+ fantasy outings. A matchup with Sunderland is the perfect opportunity to fulfill that destiny.
Forwards
Romelu Lukaku, Everton $8,100 – Lukaku is the most in form player in all the Premier League at this point in the season and while his team didn’t get the win last weekend against Leicester, Lukaku should still be in line for another good outing with a lot of potential to score a goal or two. A trip to Newcastle may be tough, but Lukaku should be highly owned and could be a good cash game play as well.
Olivier Giroud, Arsenal $7,000 – Giroud can’t stop scoring goals, with 6 goals in his last four matches and with Alexis looking like he may not suite up for the Gunners on Boxing day, Giroud could be leading the line once again and be the main beneficiary of a matchup with a Southampton squad that has been vulnerable recently.
Diego Costa, Chelsea $6,000 – Costa was one of two players boo’d last time when Chelsea hosted Sunderland because of the firing of Jose Mourinho. Costa has always relished being the villain, couple that with the fact that he has been playing terrible in recent weeks and with Chelsea hosting Watford at home, this makes for the excellent opportunity for Costa to fire back at his detractors and try to reclaim his status as one of the top strikers in the league.
Christian Benteke, Liverpool $6,200 – This is a shot in the dark as Liverpool are still trying to find their offensive bearings and with a loss to Watford on the road last weekend they’ll try to come out firing on all cylinders and take the table toppers by surprise by scoring early. If Benteke does get the start then he should be leading the line and should be in line for a few opportunities at goal. This is a selection for tournaments only as Benteke could play 90 minutes and accumulate a grand total of 1 fantasy points essentially destroying your team. But he could also score 2-3 goals and vault you to the very top of the standings.
Glenn Murray, Bournemouth $3,800 – Revenge? Glenn Murray was a mainstay of Crystal Palace for several seasons totaling 125 games with 47 goals, including 30 goals in their promotion season from the Championship to the Premier League. Murray should lead the line in 4-1-4-1 formation and with teams on short rest. Murray is in a great spot to score a goal and potentially lead his team to a vital victory at this point in the season.