EPL DFS Targets: Cash vs GPP - Saturday, December 12th
With Matchweek 15 in the books along with the group stages of the Champions League having been completed, we’re drawing towards the midway point of the soccer season in Europe. For those of you who aren’t as familiar, the English Premier League (EPL) goes 38 weeks, with each team playing every other team in the league twice (a home and home series).
We now look forward to Matchweek 16; several teams are on short rest after playing in the midweek fixtures in Europe, including Manchester United and Manchester City, who played Tuesday, Chelsea and Arsenal, who played Wednesday, and finally Tottenham and Liverpool, who played on Thursday.
Saturday brings us a five-match fixture in the main slate, while Sunday is a four-match fixture. Our analysis today will focus on Saturday’s matches as those are the ones with the larger GPPs over on DraftKings. Of the 10 teams in action Saturday, only Manchester City and Manchester United played in Europe on Tuesday, so they’ve had three days rest prior to their matchups. United are on the road at Bournemouth while City are playing host to Swansea who just recently fired their manager Gary Monk and will be without an official appointment come Saturday’s fixture, the temporary appointment will be Alan Curtis.
Goalkeepers
Top Goalkeeper: Joe Hart, Manchester City $4,300 – The top goalkeeper on the slate comes from the team with the biggest odds to win who also happens to be going up against a team that is a bit desperate to change the way they play, especially with the firing of their coach. Hart’s back line has been shaky recently without Kompany. The team conceded two goals midweek to Borussia M’Gladbach who are a better team than Swansea, and with City playing at home this week I think Hart gets the win bonus and probably 2-4 saves and may concede a single goal.
Tournament Goalkeeper: Lukasz Fabianski, Swansea $3,400 – On the opposite end of the spectrum, City are the top offense going on Saturday and their opponents will be facing plenty of shots on target which gives Fabianski some big chances to get some saves which are worth two points a piece. He’s likely going to concede at least two goals, but if he can manage 5-7 saves then he’s more than paid for his cheap price tag.
Defenders
Cash Defenders
Cedric Soares, Southampton $3,800 – I am looking forward to the Southampton vs Crystal Palace matchup as there should be some fantasy plays we can take advantage of. These are two teams that allow plenty of crosses and like to push the pace and cross the ball in their attack. Each one of the full backs from each team is in play for your defenses and you can count on some crosses as well as the potential for shots.
Pape Soare, Crystal Palace $3,200 – Staying with the same game, Pape Soare is my pick from Crystal Palace although I also like Joel Ward for the same reasons mentioned above. This will be a fast paced game with lots of crosses.
Deandre Yedlin, Sunderland $2,500 – Sunderland have shifted to a 3-5-2 formation with Yedlin and Van Aanholt playing the wing backs in the midfield. They’re both carrying plenty of potential and with Yedlin being the cheaper option he’s the more likely play to make it into some of my lineups.
Tournament Defenders
Aleksandar Kolarov, Manchester City $5,600 – He’s strictly a GPP play because of his high price tag, however, if you can afford him, Kolarov makes for an excellent cash game play as he is very consistent in his role on this team, he had 14 points midweek with 11 crosses, and that was his lowest output in a month. His usual value fluctuates between 10 points up to 30. Fit him in where you can.
Aaron Cresswell, West Ham United $4,200 – He’s the second highest priced defender, but he’s a full $1400 cheaper than Kolarov. Him and Jenkinson are reverting back to their previous roles with the club after the injury to Payet, in that they are pushing forward as part of the attack more often and taking more crosses into the box in order to help spread the offense. With this match being at home against Stoke, expect Cresswell and Jenkinson to both have high floors with plenty of crosses and some other peripheral statistics.
Midfielders
Cash Midfielders
Dusan Tadic, Southampton $7,700 – Tadic just keeps on delivering, and while his price has risen to its highest level this season, he’s still as sure a thing as you can get this week. Tadic has 9 of the top 11 crossing games for the Southampton team this season, including five double digit crossing games. Crystal Palace just surrendered 21 crosses to Deulofeu last weekend and have had opponent midfielders register over 6 crosses a game 11 times this season. Tadic should have the ball at his feet a good bit this game. In his last five games he’s taken 12 shots, 48 crosses, and scored a single goal. His regression occurred the last two weeks with fantasy totals of 11 and 6, this week you should see his production rise back to match his salary.
Daley Blind, Manchester United $3,200 – He’s the main corner kick taker for united, and while he plays as a center back, he is the rare case where he accumulates points in many ways including shots, crosses along with defensive stats. Blind’s price is extremely low for his floor of at least 8 points and ceiling of 20+.
David Silva, Manchester City $5,800 – At his price it’s very tough to ignore Silva in such a good matchup. He just came back from injury and hasn’t looked quite himself in the few games he’s played, however, he’s an extremely talented midfielder and if he’s playing in the number 10 role (behind the forward) then he’s almost a must play. Before his injury he was the primary corner kick taker, since then, De Bruyne has taken over that role, and while KDB hasn’t relinquished that role yet, when he left the game at the 65 minute mark, Silva took 4 corners between then and the end of the match when City scored 3 goals to overcome Borussia M’Gladbach and get the win.
Tournament Midfielders
Andre Ayew, Swansea $5,600 – Swansea is going to try to change things up, this may be the spot where Gomis is dropped from the starting lineup and Ayew moved to forward position to lead the line. Ayew is a talented forward who is opportunistic and has looked more effective than Gomis in recent weeks. Against City this is a tough spot to recommend anybody, but I believe that City’s defense is vulnerable recently, which means that Ayew is in play as well as Shelvey who loves to take shots (and has two goals in his last two games, regression?)
Michail Antonio, West Ham $2,700 – Lanzini, Moses and Payet are all injured, Michail Antonio came on for the Hammers in their last match and while he didn’t score or assist on any goals in a 0-0 draw with Manchester United, expect that Antonio will provide some stats eventually. He did have 19 touches in the final third that match, along with 3 interceptions, 2 crosses, and a tackle. In a full match he should reach about 10 points with maybe adding in some shots against Stoke.
Yanick Bolasie, Crystal Palace $5,500 – Bolasie and Palace are going to be very popular plays due to the price tag and the expected back and forth of this game. I thought about putting Cabaye in this spot, but the last two weeks his production has slipped and that is due to a change in role with the team. Cabaye is now sitting back more often and doesn’t get as many touches in the final third. Bolasie’s price is low enough and he’s been playing the number 10 role and been productive while doing it.
Forwards
Cash Forwards
Odion Ighalo, Watford $6,200 – Ighalo and Deeney are a great combination of players that are working great to try to keep Watford up in the premier league this season. Ighalo has 9 goals this season and 2 in his last 2. He took 7 shots against Noriwch last time out and Sunderland won’t be any different. Expect a large volume of attempts this time around and potentially a goal or two.
Wilfried Bony, Manchester City, $5,200 – With no Aguero, City rested Bony to start the last match midweek, and he came on at the 65th minute, scored a goal and assisted on two others. His price is very reasonable for what he can do and with a bit of manipulation can be fit in your team along with Ighalo. I expect these two to be very popular if they both get the starts.
Tournament Forwards
Graziano Pelle, Southampton $6,700 – For tournaments I tend to gravitate towards the high priced forwards who rely heavily on goals for their production. This season in games in which Pelle scores he averages 22.6 DK points, while in games when he doesn’t score his average is more pedestrian at 7 fantasy points. With this being a potential high scoring game, the odds of Pelle scoring are higher than they have been recently and he should break his three game goal-less drought.
Anthony Martial, Manchester United $6,100 – People will avoid Martial because he plays for Manchester United and they are a slow paced team. However, Martial is coming off a goal in the Champions League and with United having flamed out of Europe, they’ll focus right on the Premier League and Martial may be the focus of the attack that will try to make some noise against a weak Bournemouth side.