EPL DFS Targets: Cash vs GPP - Saturday, December 19th
With another week coming up on us in EPL we have what I consider one of the most interesting slates we’ve had so far this season.
The big news is obviously the firing of Chelsea’s coach Jose Mourinho after a dismal start to their title defense season in which Chelsea have failed to live up to even the most modest of expectations and find themselves in dire straits just a point out of the relegation zone and with just four points out of their last 18 possible, the team needed change. Now whether firing the coach was the right move or not is a debate for another time and another place, what we do know is that Chelsea is going to be interesting to look at moving forward. This week they face Sunderland who may be what Chelsea needs to get out of their rut, or they may inflict further damage on an already fragile club heading into the winter months.
Elsewhere around the league, we have several interesting matchups including Everton playing host to league leaders Leicester City, and Tottenham visiting Southampton in a battle of two teams coming off tough losses last week. As always, make sure to check the released lineups right before lock (roughly one hour prior to lock on Saturday morning) to check out lineups and formations prior to locking in your lineups. On to the picks.
Goalkeepers
Before we go on, I wanted to touch on what I believe has been a flaw in my analysis of goalkeepers. Usually my top goalkeeper used to be the one who had the biggest odds according to the betting lines and I would take whichever goalkeeper was at home and favored to win and hope for the clean sheet and a win. While those are valued at 10 points, and that may have been enough to win and be successful previously, I don’t believe it is the optimal way to pursue keepers in the new scoring formats.
Right now, with the win valued at 5 points, and with some goalkeepers getting 3-6 saves leading to potential double digit points; even 15+ in some cases, it might be prudent to target goalkeepers against teams that take a lot of shots regardless of how many goals a goalkeeper concedes. The logic behind this is a bit risky, but it is rare that goalkeepers concede more than 3 goals in a match, and the vast majority concede just one or two. All of which can be easily overcome with a 5+ save game. Whereas, if you were to roster a heavily favored keeper who only faces a single shot on goal, and somehow that results in a score that costs him the clean sheet and the win, that keeper may end up with -2 with no chance of redeeming himself.
With that, I’ll give you my top options for goalkeeper this week.
Goalkeeper: Tim Howard, Everton $3,800 – Tim Howard is facing the league leaders in Leicester City. On the surface this appears to be the toughest matchup for a goalkeeper out of any of the games this season. However, looking at the numbers, the last five weeks opponent goalkeepers have totaled 3,2,2,4 and 5 saves for an average of 3.2 saves a game. On the season, opponents have gotten anywhere between 1 and 5 saves a game. Moreover, Howard is one of the better goalkeepers at accumulating saves in the EPL. In fact, the last game where he had 0 saves was the first time this season that he managed that feat, and looking at his body of work as a whole this season he has had multiple games of 5 or more saves. With each save worth 2 points and with Everton being favored at home (albeit slightly), Howard might be in for a good showing and potentially even low ownership.
GPP Goalkeeper: Paulo Gazzaniga, Southampton $3,500 – Southampton are facing Tottenham in a home matchup that should be interesting. The Saints need a win here to get back to winning ways and the Spurs are desperate to stay in the top 5 with a spot in Europe on the line. Gazzaniga gets the start here after the injury to Maartin Stekelenburg as well as the continued absence for number 1 goalkeeper Fraser Foster. Gazzaniga is starting for the second time and accumulated 4 saves last time out against Crystal Palace while conceding a goal. Tottenham are tied for first in terms of forcing their opponents to make saves, as their opponents have averaged 4.6 saves a game against them this season. For his price, Gazzaniga will be a good choice in tournaments.
Defenders
Cash Defenders
Cedric Soares, Southampton $4,000 – One of the more consistent defenders in terms of fantasy output over the last few weeks. Soares has 5 straight games with at least double digit fantasy points on DK. His upside of delivering crosses, and getting tackles is key in determining his value, and with a matchup against Tottenham this week, Soares shouldn’t have trouble continuing his fantasy output this week.
Simon Francis, Bournemouth $2,800 – The Bournemouth fullbacks will be long forgotten and underowned after two weeks with sub-par performances due to matchups. That should all change this week with a visit to West Brom. West Brom have allowed the most crosses of any team in the premier league this season and the full backs for Bournemouth should be back in business this week. Moreover, at home this season Tony Pulis’ men have not shown the defense that is expected of a Tony Pulis team. This puts both Francis and Daniels as prime candidates to target for our DFS rosters this week.
Branislav Ivanovic, Chelsea $3,700 – Ever since returning from injury Ivanovic has improved tremendously from a statistical standpoint. In the four matches since his return he has performed much better at home with more touches and more fantasy production than he has on the road. In this matchup at home against the lowly Sunderland, expect that if Chelsea were to improve then Ivanovic and the defense will have to return to their previous performances from last season, and if they were to do that, then the price on Ivanovic is much too low for what he is capable of.
GPP Defenders
Daryl Janmaat, Newcastle, $3,700 – A matchup against the worst team in the premier league means that Newcastle has a rare moment where they are favored and should control possession comfortably. Janmaat and Fuchs should both be targeted here*
Seamus Coleman, Everton $4,400 – Coleman carries some upside associated with what might be a back and forth matchup. Moreover, the majority of the focus at Everton’s defense will be on Leighton Baines, who will be in a good spot, but the combination and price and ownership along with similar upside make Coleman a slightly better GPP play for this slate.
Midfielders
Cash Midfielders
Riyad Mahrez, Leicester City $8,300 – He’s the flavor of the month right now. It seems that everything that Leicester City touches turns to gold and it’s all thanks to quality from Mahrez and Vardy and a lesser extent due to Albrighton. Look for Mahrez to continue his activity and effectiveness with a matchup against Everton. Mahrez can do it all on the field and despite his high price will be highly owned, and should deliver on his high price tag.
Willian, Chelsea $6,600 – He’s the main set piece taker for Chelsea, ranging from corners, free kicks and without Hazard, you wonder if he gets to step up and take penalties. Willian has been the most consistent Chelsea player, and this week without Mourinho, that shouldn’t change. Chelsea should get plenty of shots and crosses in on Sunderland. Willian, for his price is in a good spot.
Georgino Wijnaldum, Newcastle $4,800 – Wijnaldum and Newcastle should have a good game here. Wijnaldum intrigues me here because his position on the field as the number 10 for Newcastle places him as a prime candidate to excel against a weak Villa team. This Villa team has allowed such midfielders as Barkley, Coutinho, Mahrez and Milner to have some big games. Wijnaldum should have a chance to repeat some of that excellence with some crosses, shots and potentially some goals as well.
GPP Midfielders
Sadio Mane, Southampton $7,200 – Mane has had a tough run of fixtures in which he has failed to score goals. In fact, in his last six matches he has taken 14 shots and scored zero goals. With the Saints looking for a matchup that may result in several goals, Mane may find himself in position to deliver on his relatively high price tag today.
Christian Eriksen, Tottenham $6,800 – He’s an ultimate GPP play. Eriksen can teeter anywhere between single digit fantasy outputs to 20+ fantasy points. Eriksen has as much upside as anybody in the Tottenham-Southampton game and should be targeted on some GPP teams.
Junior Stanislas, Bournemouth $4,500 – Bournemouth are coming off the best stretch in club history after garnering 7 points in their last 3 matches against Everton, Chelsea and Manchester United. In all this, Stanislas has been excelled with goals, shots, crosses and assists. This matchup against West Brom is a tricky one, and for his price, Stanislas might be worth using in both GPP and Cash games alike.
Forwards
Cash Forwards
Romelu Lukaku, Everton $8,000 – It’s going to be tough to separate the top two forwards this week. Both Lukaku and Vardy have plenty going for them. Here’s the argument for Lukaku over Vardy: Lukaku is the hottest player in the premier league right now. Goals in eight of his last ten matches with 11 goals total in that span have him in stellar form. He’s facing a squad that has allowed multiple goals this season multiple times. Moreover, in the last six weeks he leads the league in shots taken at 26 shots total. What’s not to like?
Gerard Deulofeu, Everton $5,000 – There are not a lot of superb forward options this week outside of the real expensive pairing that I would consider cash game options. However, with Deulofeu being a superb talent who is making a name for himself quickly on this Everton squad, he’s sure to get some attention. He’s no longer taking corners as he used to, but he’s still a crossing forward who can get an assist or even several crosses in a single game. And for his cheap price, he’s worth the roster spot.
GPP Forwards
Harry Kane, Tottenham $7,400 – He may go severely overlooked in this week’s matchup, but he’s slightly cheaper than Lukaku and Vardy and has the same upside. He’s also facing a goalkeeper who is the third option for his team and if his midfield can continue providing some quality looks, expect Kane to score a goal or two.
Diego Costa, Chelsea $6,300 – Was Costa one of the disgruntled players in the Chelsea locker room that eventually led to Mourinho’s demise? We may never find out conclusively, but Costa is one of the rare talents in EPL that can score in any matchup. And with a game against Sunderland and with Chelsea looking to try to get back to form, this may be a multi-goal spot for him.
Ayoze Perez, Newcastle $5,400 – Like Wijnaldum, Perez and Newcastle should find a relatively easy way to a win today to prove that while they are in the relegation zone, they are in a different class than Aston Villa, who seem relegation bound. Perez does have some upside of multiple goals and has the potential to deliver crosses as well if he takes corners. He’s a good pivot off of Deulofeu if you want a different cheap forward.
Salomon Rondon, West Brom $4,300 – Rondon is too cheap for what he is capable of, and with West Brom facing Bournemouth at home, look for Rondon to carry that potential we saw from him earlier in the season when he scored some goals and had double digit outings. His floor is extremely low and his performance is volatile, so I wouldn’t count on him in cash games.