EPL DFS Targets: Cash vs GPP - Saturday, November 21st
Welcome to Week 13 of Daily Fantasy EPL as we examine the matchups in this weekend’s games for Saturday. There are seven matchups this weekend to take a look at, and with the exception of Leicester at Newcastle, each game has a clear favorite, but this may be a week where the odds are mistaken a little.
As I did the last time I wrote one of these, I’m going to go through the picks for the week broken down by position, then by cash plays and tournament plays. Week 13 is here and I can’t wait, so let us get started.
Goalkeepers
Cash Keeper: Maarten Stekelenburg, Southampton $3,400 – I’m going cheap with goalkeeper this week in order to spend a little elsewhere. Also, the best option this week are Begovic, Cech and Stekelenberg. I eliminated the other two as Cech is playing away from home and Begovic and Chelsea are suffering from a form crisis, and one of the rules of daily fantasy soccer is avoid players in bad form, especially on defense. Stekelenburg makes for a great play today as Southampton are heavy favorites against Stoke. Stoke on the season have averaged less than 10 shots a game and playing at Southampton means that the Saints will hold the ball and should control this game making Stekelenberg an easy play for the week.
Tournament Keeper: Robert Elliot, Newcastle $3,400 – As mentioned above, I don’t hate either play mentioned above in Begovic or Cech, but they both carry hefty price tags and if you’re wanting a GPP play that will be low owned, look no further than Robert Elliot. Krul is currently injured, so expect Elliot to man the net for Newcastle as they welcome Leicester at home. Leicester are a superb offensive team, but they have been converting shots to goals at a very high rate this season at 14.3% they are tops in the premier league and with Jamie Vardy less than 100% this might be the ideal time for them to trail back a bit.
Defenders
Cash Defenders
Alan Hutton, Aston Villa $3,200 – The theme of this week is cheap defenders who can cross the ball and/or take corners as that seems to be the highest floor and highest upside for any position other that forwards who don’t cross the ball much. You’ll find a lot of people on Hutton as Villa are playing away to Everton and Villa are a high crossing team. Everton on the season allow 22 crosses a game and that puts them in the bottom third in the premier league. Hutton is also coming off games of 3, 7 and 8 crosses with the three coming against Manchester City.
Daryl Janmaat, Newcastle $3,500 – Another safe play is Janmaat, the Dutch international is coming off playing well for his national team in the international break and heads back to help his Newcastle side attempt to knock off high flying Leicester. Janmaat averages close to 4 crosses a game and is playing in a match against the team that allows the second most crosses in all the premier league. Janmaat is a safe option at defense this week.
Christian Fuchs, Leicester City $3,000 – Opposite of Newcastle are Leicester and they also allow a large amount of crosses. Fuchs is a winger who pushes forward with his team. He played the last three matches for Leicester and has been a pivotal part of their offense.
Tournament Defenders
Aleksandar Kolarov, Manchester City $5,200 – He started off the season as the most consistent defender in the game, and with the new scoring he carries even more value with his crossing ability and corner kicks. At his price he is purely a GPP option as well as I cannot justify paying up for him in cash games when there are guys that are 2K cheaper than him have similar floors.
Hector Bellerin, Arsenal $3,800 – Arsenal are considered a heavy favorite in this matchup and are also facing a team that allows a lot of crosses. Bellerin and Monreal are the two fullbacks for the Gunners and they both have the potential for multiple crosses and even assists or goals. For his price, Bellerin can be used in cash, and if you can afford him may be a good option for both Cash and GPP.
Midfielders
Cash Midfielders
Dusan Tadic, Southampton $7,500 – He’s probably the safest option on the slate with Southampton facing Stoke at home. Tadic has 6 games this season with 20+ fantasy points with the new DK scoring, he’s one of the more consistent high ceiling plays on the day and will be a staple on all my cash games.
Marc Albrighton, Leicester City $6,000 – Whether or not Leicester continue their goal scoring streak and high conversion rate, Albrighton carries a high floor with his crossing ability and with the style that Leicester plays, you can count on Albrighton and Mahrez to both push the pace on the wings. However, Mahrez’ effectiveness relies heavily on whether Vardy plays as if Vardy does not play, the team may opt for a 4-4-2 formation with Ulloa and Okazaki up front with Mahrez behind the forwards and Albrighton as one wing with Schlupp as the other. If Vardy does start, then Mahrez makes a great play as he will have more in game opportunities. Albrighton is the better cash game option due to his price and certain floor associated with his crosses.
Robbie Brady, Norwich $5,000 – This is a tough game to target, Chelsea and Norwich both have very similar numbers offensively and defensively, but Brady plays a very specific role for his squad as he crosses the ball significantly more than anybody else on his team. Chelsea are a tough team to figure out, but defensively they’ve been prone to lapses and have allowed set pieces to beat them. Brady delivers corners for his squad and thus carries a high floor, but his ceiling is low, as expected.
Tournament Midfielders
Kevin De Bruyne, Manchester City $7,400 – De Bruyne has seen a dip in his production in recent weeks without the assistance of Sergio Aguero. However, with Aguero back and with Silva still missing from the lineup for a few more weeks, De Bruyne should be an easy play this week as he should get more opportunities and more touches that should lead to crosses, shots and potential assists and goals. He’s a GPP play because City are playing Liverpool in what should be a tough matchup that could end in a 0-0 draw with neither team really taking advantage.
Mesut Ozil, Arsenal $7,000 – Ozil is one of the top players in the league this season. He is at the top of the list in terms of assists and touches in the final third. He’s a great option in both cash and GPPs. There is a risk of him being unable to deliver any assists with West Brom being a good defensive team and Alexis Sanchez suffering from fatigue, the entire team’s effectiveness is diminished without their most talented player, Sanchez. Ozil should be good still for several crosses and at least a chance or two created.
Adam Lallana, Liverpool $4,200 – Lallana is a good pivot from Brady or Albrighton as he has seen the most increase in recent weeks in terms of touches in the final third with his Liverpool squad. Jurgen Klopps team has seemed to feature more Lallana in recent weeks, as he has had more touches in that four week period than he did in the first 8 weeks combined. Lallana also has 10 shots in recent weeks with 0 goals on the season. This is a tough matchup, but keep an eye on Lallana in the coming few weeks with the Reds as he may start to finally convert on some of these chances.
Forwards
Cash Forwards
Gerard Deulofeu, Everton $4,500 – It’s tough to trust any forwards in the new scoring system, so instead my cash forwards will always be players that are underpriced given their role in the offense. Deulofeu has played excellent ball for an Everton squad that is peaking at the moment. Prior to the international break Deulofeu had 14, 23 and 18 fantasy points, and heading into this matchup against Aston Villa he should continue his double digit performance with close to 20 points once again.
Joshua King, Bournemouth $3,200 – King is slated to start as a sole forward for Bournemouth this week against Swansea and for his price all you really expect from him is a few shots a game and the hope that he can convert one of them he has zero goals on the season and he’s going to be playing in a position to score goals this game against a Swansea squad that has allowed 13 shots a game on the season.
Tournament Forwards
Graziano Pelle, Southampton $7,000 – For tournaments you need to target the forwards for teams that are expected to win easily. Southampton are expected to have an easy win this match, and pairing Pelle with Tadic is a good way to go. You can also pivot to Mane or another wing player for Southampton and be in good shape. Pelle however is in excellent form and he has the ability to score goals in any matchup especially a good one such as this week.
Olivier Giroud, Arsenal $6,500 – With Sanchez being a candidate for limited action due to fatigue, and Arsenal being a heavy favorite, the oddsmakers must believe that Giroud has a chance to score a goal or two and lead his side to victory. Giroud may not be a world class striker but he is near the top class and in a matchup against West Brom, he may have his work cut out for him, but he can still deliver to those who choose to take a chance on him.