EPL DFS Targets: Cash vs GPP - Saturday, November 28th
Welcome to a post-Thanksgiving edition of the EPL top plays now that we are slowly recovering from our giant meals and looking forward to a fun weekend of Soccer on DraftKings. So without spending a whole bunch of time with fluff, we’ll get into the picks right away.
Goalkeepers
Cash Goalkeeper: Willy Caballero, Manchester City $2,800 – This play is a price and opportunity dependent pick. I don’t trust Caballero as much as I trusted Joe Hart, but with Hart’s injury you have to consider his backup at such a cheap price, especially with City being such heavy favorites at home against Southampton. Southampton is a good team with strong offensive weapons, however, without Graziano Pelle, they lose some of the intimidation factor. I am comfortable with Caballero in cash games with the expectation that a clean sheet is unlikely, but a few saves should be forthcoming.
GPP Goalkeeper: Jack Butland, Stoke $3,500 – Goalkeepers are very tough to predict, however, Butland should be a good option that is a favorite going against arguably the worst team in the EPL. Butland and Stoke have 6 clean sheets in their last seven matches and they also allow the fifth most shots on target in the premier league and Butland is second in the league in saves made. The only risk is that Sunderland has been bad offensively as they are worst in the league in shots taken at home thus they won’t push Butland too often.
Defenders
Cash Defenders
Simon Francis, Bournemouth $2,900 – With his return to the fullback role, Francis saw his production rise last weekend with 8 crosses and 12 fantasy points. The rise in crosses can be directly attributed to his 38 touches in the final third which were a season high. Francis doesn’t take a lot of shots, but he does act as the primary ball crosser when the team is in an attacking position. In the matchup this week against Everton, it should be a back and forth affair with Bournemouth looking to hold home court advantage and take advantage of the Everton attack which has been firing on full cylinders in recent weeks.
Joel Ward, Crystal Palace $2,800 Crystal Palace may have the best matchup of the Saturday slate and Ward returned last week and filled the stat sheet with 4 crosses, 3 tackles, and an interception. He also took a shot and was involved in some fouls. Ward is a nice cash game play with a high floor and a decent ceiling for a defender. His price is affordable and allows you to be flexible in other positions with higher upside.
Glen Johnson, Stoke $3,700 – With Stoke being a decent defensive team in recent weeks and my recommendation of Butland at keeper, Johnson makes perfect sense as a defender to pair him with. You can also roster Pieters for $4,000, but Johnson is cheaper and has consistently gotten more touches in the final third this season. Johnson also the upside of multiple crosses, tackles and interceptions.
GPP Defenders
Christian Fuchs, Leicester City $3,400 – He’s usually a reliable cash play, but with the matchup against Manchester United’s tight defense and possession dominant style, Fuchs is relegated to GPP play only. Fuchs usually is good for a few crosses and a few other stats, however, if United controls possession for 60% (as they normally do) then Leicester won’t get a chance to deliver on their usual high floor for their players that play on the wings and full back. However, Fuchs does have GPP upside as Leicester could prove to be too tough for United to impose their will on the match and if so, then Fuchs will be a primary reason for that success.
Daryl Janmaat, Newcastle $3,600 – Janmaat is a good play with some upside as Newcastle look to get a decent result this week against a tough Crystal Palace squad. Janmaat has the potential for double-digit crosses, or multiple interceptions or tackles. He’s very smart and a talented offensive player. He can score goals or assist. However, he can also disappear in tough matchups on the road. This season he has 53 touches in the final third in away matches, while he has 125 touches in home matches. With Newcastle playing away from home Saturday, using Janmaat in GPPs only might be the better move.
Midfielders
Cash Midfielders
Yohan Cabaye, Crystal Palace $5,700 – Crystal Palace are a team that averages 27 crosses a game, with almost 13.5 shots, and 9 chances created. Cabaye is the engine that keeps that team going as he leads them in tackles, crosses, interceptions, and fouls drawn. With the new changes in scoring, Cabaye gained the most value and he continues to put up very consistent numbers and he has become the first player that I enter into my lineups every week.
Ross Barkley, Everton $6,700 – Last week I considered entering Barkley into my cash play category, but decided that his price was too high and prohibitive with Dusan Tadic being so close and in a much better matchup. Well, Barkley scored twice and assisted on another and had an all around great game. While I don’t expect him to duplicate that effort, The matchup against Bournemouth isn’t intimidating and Barkley should be the unanimous decision for anybody looking to spend into the top 8 priced midfielders as everybody else in that category has a very tough matchup with lots of question marks.
Matt Ritchie, Bournemouth $5,700 – A couple of weeks ago he scored 29 fantasy points against Newcastle without scoring or assisting on a goal. And while he’s not playing Newcastle again, he does possess the upside to deliver plenty of crosses and shots that can give him the high floor and high ceiling we are looking for. Bournemouth are actually underdogs at home, but you should expect them to get off more shots than their opponents and have a slight advantage in possession.
GPP Midfielders
David Silva, Manchester City $5,900 – He’s back from injury and declared fit for this week’s matchup. When healthy David Silva may be an $8,000 midfielder with a high floor and a tremendous upside as part of a very potent Manchester City attack. With his price so low, you almost can’t afford to roster him, except that we don’t know whether he’ll play a full 90 minutes or whether he’s going to slide in comfortably into what they’ve been doing with De Bruyne, Sterling and Aguero. Navas is now relegated to the bench most likely and De Bruyne also loses potential upside. Still, Silva is worth a flier on for such a low price.
Dusan Tadic, Southampton $7,700 – Southampton are without Pelle and thus will rely on Long as their forward, however, Tadic should still be active on this team. The difficulty this week lies in the matchup against Manchester City, who are the best offense in the premier league when fully healthy. The good news for Tadic and the Saints, is that City haven’t looked their best recently and are suffering from plenty of injuries in the defense, the bad news is that Silva is back and they can finally field their offense that they’ve started the season with and could look take care of business at home. Tadic still makes for a good option for the Saints as he takes plenty of set pieces for this squad and is a talented enough player that he can still have a good game if his team loses.
Juan Mata, Manchester United $6,500 – Mata and Manchester United are a good team that likes to control possession and slowly build up before striking on their opponent. They don’t score a lot of goals and may be confused with “boring”. However, Mata is a very talented midfielder with high upside and high floor in the right matchup. Luckily for him, a matchup against Leicester City may be a perfect opportunity to unleash him and give him the chance to deliver double-digit crosses and a few shots. His upside is very high in this matchup against the Eagles and should be considered for GPP teams.
Forwards
Cash Forwards
Sergio Aguero, Manchester City $7,800 – There is no such thing as a safe forward. However, there are forwards who are exceptionally good at finding the back of the net and putting themselves in position to do so. One of the best in the world is Sergio Aguero, and with the team looking to get a win this week against the visiting Saints, Aguero should be in position to score a goal or two. The only risk with him is that he does little else in terms of measurable stats so his floor is somewhat low (Single digits) however, this is a matchup that is exploitable and thus raises his floor slightly.
Gerard Deulofeu, Everton $4,600- Deulofeu disappointed in his last time out with just four fantasy points in a prime matchup against Aston Villa. His team scored four goals and he didn’t do much on the scoresheet. However, if you watched the game, you knew that Deulofeu played excellently and was critical in scoring at least two of the goals. He also had 33 touches in the final third which was the second highest total for the season for him. At such a low price and after a bad performance, I won’t hesitate to put Deulofeu in almost all my lineups this Saturday.
Connor Wickham, Crystal Palace $3,600 – Wickham should be the starting forward for a Crystal Palace team that should get a comfortable win against a Newcastle team that should be outclassed and overwhelmed trying to contain the barrage of midfielders likely to be pushing the attack for Palace. Wickham played last weekend against Sunderland in a similar matchup, he had 3 shots with no goals. With Palace expecting to get a similar result this week, you can look for Wickham to deliver on his position on the pitch.
GPP Forwards
Romelu Lukaku, Everton $7,600 – He’s in incredible form at the moment and has lately been a joy to watch if you enjoy attacking football as Everton have looked deadly in the front. Lukaku is expensive and may be close to 25% owned, but he’s worth taking in a good percentage of your GPP teams. If you’re a single lineup kind of player, then Lukaku should also be in your lineup as his upside is unquestionable and only has 3 games on the season where he has taken fewer than 3 shots.
Odion Ighalo, Watford $5,300 – On the season, Watford have scored 12 goals and Ighalo has scored or assisted on 9 of them. Ighalo’s performances have directly correlated with the success of Watford on the season. For this week, Watford is facing a bottom of the table Aston Villa and if Watford were to prove themselves as a team that belongs in the premiership, then they will want to make a statement with a strong performance on the road against the Villans. Look for Ighalo and Deeney ($4,700) to both lead the attack with one of them getting close to scoring.
Shane Long, Southampton $3,600 – With Pelle suspended for the matchup against Manchester City, Shane Long is expected to get the nod as a striker, and despite the matchup on the road against a top team, Long should have a good matchup. His floor is low and the matchup could turn on the Saints, or he could get subbed off early, thus he is a GPP play for me. His ownership should be high, but that shouldn’t matter, as if he scores, those who have them in their lineups will vault to the top of the leaderboards.