EPL DFS Targets: Cash vs GPP - Saturday, November 7th
We’re back to another week of soccer fun after an exciting midweek Champions League game set that saw Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea win while Arsenal showed “some” struggle a little.
This week, I decided to try something different, rather than write up two players at each position and then give an “also consider” that listed 10 extra players, I chose to write up “cash plays” and “GPP plays” and try to guide you to your week 12 matchups this way. If you like this format let me know in the comments or on twitter, and I’ll be sure to take it all into consideration.
Goalkeepers
Cash Keeper: David De Gea, Manchester United $4,000 – My cash keeper this week is none other than David De Gea, whose team hosts West Brom in what should be a Man U-dominated match. For the season Manchester United have been the lowest shots per touch team as they have only taken 110 total shots on 2388 touches in the final third for a very low rate of 4.6%. This is not a team that likes to shoot the ball, but they dominate possession in a way that stifles the opponent. De Gea shouldn’t be at risk too often, which has downside of little to no saves, but the upside is the win bonus is as close as you’ll get this week to a guarantee. The one risk is that United have been very pathetic lately with scoring the ball, despite their single goal “outburst” against CSKA Moscow midweek in the Champions League.
GPP Keeper: Lukasz Fabianski, Swansea $3,100/John Ruddy Norwich $3,500 – I like this game for GPP keepers as I think these are two desperate teams that are looking to get their seasons back on track. Over the last four weeks Norwich have zero points, while Swansea are slightly better with four points. Both teams have struggled to score goals and Norwich has even taken the fifth most shots in the league in that period. I think this will be a matchup between two teams that are scared to make mistakes. There will be some long range shots that should be easy pickings for the keepers and neither team should really dominate the ball too much. I lean slightly more towards Ruddy as a “safe” keeper, but honestly, neither of them is particularly safe as both teams ARE capable of scoring; they just haven’t been doing it lately.
Defenders
While I tend to not vary my defenders much from GPP to cash games, especially with the new setup, I look for defenders who produce plenty of tackles, interceptions and crosses (TIC). What’s not clear yet is whether a defender with a high TIC rating outweighs one playing in a match that his team should dominate, thus allowing for three points for the potential clean sheet.
Cash Defenders
Cedric Soares, Southampton $3,200 – There is a lack of true quality defenders in the premier league this season, and the Saturday slate is by far the most pronounced instance of that reality this season so far. Soares comes in as the “safest” defender given his high TIC of 8.05 per game this season. And with Southampton playing Sunderland, that puts the floor very high for Soares in this matchup against arguably the leagues weakest team.
Marcus Rojo, Manchester United, $3,000 – With Darmian out for this matchup and Rojo shining for United over the last couple of weeks, it’s easy to recommend the Spanish full back as he comes with a low price tag to boot. Rojo is averaging over three interceptions a game, 2.75 tackles a game along with about two crosses a game. With United looking to continue their dominance in possession, you can expect that Rojo should get a few more crosses in this matchup and be the first line of defense when the opposition gets the ball.
Christian Fuchs, Leicester City, $2,300 – Down in bargain bin territory, Fuchs is staring us in the face with a high floor in a fast paced game. He does not have a high ceiling however as all he does is tackle and intercept the ball and has zero shots on the season so don’t expect him to score you a goal. But if you want a flyer who will get about double digit points off of just base stats, Fuchs is your guy.
GPP Defenders
Cesar Azpilicueta, Chelsea $3,400 – Chelsea players are now firmly cemented in GPP land for me. As a Chelsea fan I can’t trust any of them, and I can’t recommend any of them with any certainty. I do however think that eventually this team that boasts the 4th highest possession numbers, the sixth-highest pass success percentage and the eighth-highest shots per game will start to figure things out. They draw the most fouls, and they command their opponent respect their respective skills. Eventually, Mourinho will allow them to keep pushing forward after they score a goal, and then Azpilicueta and Ivanovic will gain their fantasy value back as they get more involved in the crossing game which should increase their floor and their ceiling. Could this be the week where it all comes to fruition?
Kyle Naughton, Swansea $3,100 – As mentioned above, I like the odds of both goalkeepers in this matchup to get some value that translates to fantasy points. As such, I also believe there is some GPP value in the defenders that can cross the ball. Naughton has 33 crosses on the season and two assists. He also has 12 chances created in his nine appearances and with Swansea stalling a bit offensively, they’ll turn it back around eventually, look for Naughton to be a potential catalyst if they do get it started.
Martin Olsson, Norwich $2,300 – I like Olsson. I like Norwich. I like players who can deliver roughly a thousand crosses in a game, of which Olsson is one. Unfortunately, he is just a guy who doesn’t start every game, but if he does start, for $2.3K he can have a high floor as well as a possibility for assists.
Midfielders
Cash Midfielders
Riyad Mahrez, Leicester City $7,400 – Mahrez is the default cash and GPP play for every week until Leicester stop scoring tons of goals. Even when this team falls behind, Mahrez and Vardy somehow find a way to get them back in it. I will probably shy away from them in tougher matchups, however, this week is not one of them. On the season Watford has been one of the better teams in limiting their opponents in terms of shots and possession. However, when facing teams on the road, they’ve allowed six goals in four games, 14 shots a game, 30 crosses a game, and 240 touches in the final third (well above average of 157). Mahrez is still in play until further notice. If you want to venture off of Mahrez then look no further than his teammate Albrighton for $5,600.
Robbie Brady, Norwich $4,200 – Midfielders gained the most value in the recent introduction of the new scoring as mentioned last week. As such, we want guys who deliver lots of crosses and Brady’s crossing numbers this season from OPTA read as a thing of beauty, his last four game weeks read as this: 8, 11, 9, and 21. His combination of price and floor make him a must play this week.
Dimitri Payet, West Ham United $7,000 – Through eleven gameweeks, Payet has been the second highest fantasy producer sandwiched between Mahrez and Vardy. He’s the guy who touches the ball the most on his team and he is the motor that makes the engine run. West Ham are coming off a disappointing 2-0 loss at Watford and will look to right that ship as they play host to Everton who are coming off a 6-2 drubbing of Sunderland. For a little bit more, I also like Dusan Tadic for Southampton this week, however, decided to go with Payet for the savings.
GPP Midfielders
Ross Barkley, Everton $6,400 – He’s been a surprising fifth in total fantasy points due to his high crossing numbers, his high foul-drawn rate and his shot rate. His team is coming off a great game in which they destroyed Sunderland to the tune of six goals to two and Barkley didn’t really have much to do with it. However, in a matchup with West Ham on the road, I can see the team having to go wide in order to create space against the Hammers’ defense, which gives Barkley the room to send in crosses and create chances for his teammates.
Jonjo Shelvey, Swansea $4,600 – Jonjo likes to shoot. And he likes to shoot a lot. On the season Shelvey has 30 shots which puts him at 15th among all players. However, only eight of those are on target, which puts him at 28th among all players. Shelvey also has an astounding zero goals which is the least among any player in the top 30 in shots taken this season. Will he score a goal this match? I don’t know, but he’s going to certainly try, which makes him the perfect GPP play.
Willian, Chelsea $5,000 – Chelsea can’t be trusted until they play differently and play attacking football the entire game. However, if there was one player who can be somewhat trusted, it’s Willian. Willian is the smart GPP play who shows you’re not just taking a random flyer on a guy and hope you strike gold. He’s been actively participating in the offense and is the free kick specialist. He also has a somewhat decent floor as he takes some corners for Chelsea especially if Fabregas isn’t in the lineup. He’s a risk as he can be subbed off early and if he doesn’t score or get a bunch of crosses then he’s a wasted roster spot, so for that reason he’s relegated to GPP only.
Forwards
Cash Forwards
Jamie Vardy, Leicester $7,200 – Read everything I said about Mahrez, apply the same logic to Vardy and you have yourself a forward worth spending on. The nature of all forwards is that they are goal dependent which means that none of them are truly cash plays, however, we like to target the ones who are on teams that are predicted to take a lot of shots, and Leicester and Vardy should fall in that category.
Graziano Pelle, Southampton $7,000 – When considering teams that are destined for lots of possession and hopefully goals, teams facing Swansea should be front and center. I couldn’t talk myself into any Southampton midfielders as plays this week, but I like any of them that start, if paired with Pelle who has been on fire lately. He has six goals on the season. Thinking back to last season, this team gave Sunderland their worst loss of the season scoring seven goals on them, and with Sunderland coming off a 6-2 defeat to Everton last weekend, they might be ripe for another drubbing at the hands of Southampton and Pelle is the most likely candidate to drop such a drubbing on them.
Diafra Sakho, West Ham $6,000 – Going slightly cheap, I like Diafra Sakho a bit as West Ham should be in an open ended match with Everton as mentioned previously. Look for Sakho to be a decent option as he and Payet could combine for a goal this week.
GPP Forwards
Romelu Lukaku, Everton $7,200 – I don’t like taking teams that are coming off of huge games and with Everton annihilating Sunderland last week, Lukaku is sure to be highly owned. If Everton were facing a team that slowed things down, I’d say fade him and his teammate Kone (priced at $4,300) as they combined for four goals last week. However, for GPP, I think everybody will take Kone because of the hat-trick, so it’s a good opportunity to exploit recency bias and either fade Lukaku altogether, or roster him against West Ham who have allowed 9 goals in their last six games and 15 overall in 11 games.
Wayne Rooney, Manchester United $6,800 – If Rooney starts as the striker then roster him. If Martial starts as the striker then roster him. Don’t roster either of these guys if they are starting on the wing as neither of them is effective in that position. United doesn’t have more than a single goal in them in most matches and I don’t expect that to change this week. Rooney is a GPP play that doesn’t have that much upside, so I write him here reluctantly.
Diego Costa, Chelsea $6,600 – The theme of targeting Chelsea players in GPPs continues. Costa is a 20 goal scorer who has two goals a quarter of the way into the season. So unless you believe that he’s going to finish between eight and ten goals on the season (Vardy has 11 so far) then go ahead and fade him. Costa does only have 16 shots in nine matches, so his floor is real low, but he can score a hat-trick in any matchup; could this be the one?