EPL DFS Targets: Saturday, April 9th
It’s another week of Premier League soccer on the horizon and with the weeks counting down we know we are down to just seven more matches for most teams (some are a game behind, some are ahead by a match.)
Leicester seem to be closing in on their magical title, and Newcastle and Sunderland seem to be headed towards the Championship along with Aston Villa, though there is still much to play for. This will undoubtedly influence our selections for this week. Manchester City just got done with a grueling match with Paris Saint Germaine and will be returning from Paris with a valuable 2-2 draw that should be enough (given a positive result in the return fixture) to see the Citizens through to the Champions League Semifinals, but that should also leave them somewhat exhausted for this week’s games as they play host to West Bromwich Albion in the late game on Saturday.
Otherwise this is a slate with plenty of the mid-tier teams vying for the middle part of the table and should be noted as such, we’ll have a few goals and lots of cheap options to choose from.
Goalkeepers
Joe Hart is the chalk option as he is priced very low ($3,800) for a heavy favorite in Manchester City, but if you’re playing a GPP it might be worth fading him as he might be close to 50% owned
Fraser Forster, Southampton $4,300 – facing Newcastle at home should be an easy target for your keeper. Forster and Southampton are a solid defensive squad and Forster has shown himself to be one of the better keepers in the premier league when he is focused and on his game. In his last two matches he recorded 4 and 6 saves, but his opponents were Leicester and Liverpool who take plenty of shots. What makes me think that he’ll face a few shots this matchup is the opponent is desperate. Newcastle currently sit at 19th place with 25 points and just six points out of safety. They failed get any points last week against Norwich after conceding a late goal to lose the match, so it’ll be interesting to see if they come back from that or if they give up on their season. I think they will put up a fight, but Southampton will close out this match and Forster will get the win and possibly the clean sheet.
Artur Boruc, Bournemouth $3,700 – Boruc and Bournemouth face a weak Aston Villa team. Bournemouth are actually slight favorites in this matchup and most people will overlook the potential of this matchup. This is a great time to target Boruc. One under the radar fact about the last few weeks is that Aston Villa have been firing away outside shots at home in the last few weeks. In their last three home matches they have taken 9 shots outside the box against Chelsea, 4 shots outside the box against Tottenham and 7 shots outside the box against Everton. Boruc will face some easy save opportunities and for his cheap price tag and the likely ownership, he makes for a top GPP play.
Defenders
Aly Cissokho, Aston Villa $3,600 – Picking defenders for this slate is tough as there are no longer any $2K crappers to jump down to as DraftKings has done a good job adjusting the pricing to what is “expected” to come out of the lineups. There are a few players that might still be surprise starts and that’s usually where I go with my defenders on Saturday mornings when the lineups are released I’m able to pinpoint where I can build my lineups based on sudden value. I do like Cissokho though as he can deliver crosses for an Aston Villa team that is fighting to show some positive results. This is a team that has lost seven straight matches and filed to score in four straight. They’ll attack a lot to try to score a goal and Cissokho will be involved as he had 6 crosses last time against Chelsea, look for him to attempt to repeat that this week.
Gael Clichy, Manchester City $4,000 – Depending on whether Clichy gets the start, he makes for a decent play for the Manchester City squad that has a quick turnaround to their return fixture with Paris Saint Germain in the Champions League. Clichy isn’t cheap, but he can deliver crosses and take shots for a City offense that is looking to rest some of their key players for Tuesday.
Joel Ward, Crystal Palace $3,300 – He’s cheap enough that I may be rostering him as long as he starts on Saturday. I like this Palace squad and with their midfield being so difficult to predict who gets the start, one place you can get certainty is at the defender position with Ward. Ward will deliver crosses, and will take a shot or two. He’s a fine cash play.
Midfielders
Willian, Chelsea $7,800 – Every week there is a midfielder or two that you can count on to approach the 10 cross threshold. This week, I think Willian is one of these midfielders as he’s coming back to a Chelsea team that is wanting to continue their winning ways. After announcing their next coach Conte, Willian and Chelsea will be eager to go out and show that they are deserving of the high profile Italian boss’s services. Willian is on corner kick duty and free kick duty. He’ll fire the Chelsea offense into gear to continue their assault they started against Aston Villa as they look to hang a few goals on Swansea to revenge an early season defeat at the hands of the Welsh club.
Matt Ritchie, Bournemouth $6,500 – Ritchie is my other midfielder that I believe is a must have this week. If you choose to spend up at this second midfielder spot, and go with Kevin De Bruyne or David Silva I fear that you’ll get less than 90 minutes with them as they might be rested ahead of the Tuesday Champions League fixture. Ritchie and Bournemouth face Aston Villa who are a side with nothing to lose anymore. Typically, sides that are marked for relegation tend to play all out with abandon, this leaves them open defensively, and with Ritchie being the key cog in the Bournemouth offense, I expect that he’ll see a lot of the ball and could have a hand at an assist and a few crosses.
Ross Barkley, Everton $6,600 – A bit of a differential this week is targeting Barkley for Everton. Everton haven’t been on the main DFS slate on DraftKings for a few weeks. In fact, the last time Everton has been on a main slate was on March 5th and that was a month ago. This should lead to some lower ownership of Barkley and Everton players in general. Barkley has not played particularly well in the last two matches, both losses to Arsenal and Manchester United. However, in this matchup with Watford, look for Barkley to return to form. I like him and Lukaku (more later) for GPPs this week.
Andros Townsend, Newcastle $4,500 – If you want another cheap midfielder, I recommend Bakary Sako. However, I don’t know if he’ll get the start for Southampton or not. If he doesn’t start then look at Andros Townsend as a pivot and potentially popular value play on Saturday. He has 28 points in his last two games, and even if you take out the goal he scored last time out, he has 14 points just off crosses (7 per game). Townsend makes a safe play with some upside as Newcastle visit Southampton and if they fall behind early, might be able to put some second half pressure to bring some points back with Townsend.
Forwards
Romelu Lukaku, Everton $7,600 – The top targeted forward this week will be Sergio Aguero and for good reason. However, much like Kevin De Bruyne, David Silva and others on the City squad, I think I’ll fade Aguero this week in favor of the cheaper Lukaku. I do think Aguero and City will record a win, but with roster construction, Lukaku makes much more sense and with the masses flocking to chase the City performances, Lukaku may be the lower owned guy. With the boom or bust nature of forwards, taking the lesser owned, but equal option may be the way to go.
Alexandre Pato, Chelsea $4,500 – He came off the bench after the injury to Loic Remy, and with the suspension of Diego Costa still in place, Pato should get the start this week. I like him along with his teammate Pedro for Chelsea this week. Pato however, is much too cheap for the potential role he’s going to carry thus making him a must play if he gets the start.
Jordan Ayew, Aston Villa $4,400 – If you’re keeping track, this might be the 75th time I mentioned Aston Villa in this article, which is about 75 times too many for a team with just 3 wins on the season and just 22 goals in 32 games. The likelihood of Villa scoring multiple goals is very slim and thus the upside is capped. However, these players have such low salaries and if you look at their individual body of work, Jordan Ayew really stands out as a target this week for DFS. Last week against Chelsea he took 6 shots and 5 crosses. The week before that he had 6 tackles and 2 shots against Swansea. He’s a pure GPP play, as nothing is guaranteed. But with 49 shots on the season (a lot from outside the box). Another option for Villa is Rudy Gestede who was shut down by Chelsea last game, but could warrant consideration in this matchup.
Graziano Pelle, Southampton $5,600 – after two straight games with 32 fantasy points, a matchup with Leicester cooled Pelle off a little, but I think he gets back to his goal scoring ways against Newcastle in a match that I predict should see some goals. Pelle is a talented forward and might end up being the third best option on this slate and he’s priced affordably enough that you can fit him in your lineup with one of the top two options pretty easily.