EPL DFS Targets: Saturday, February 13th
We’re one week into life with DK in the UK and Yahoo joining Mondogoal and DraftKings as providers of Daily Fantasy Soccer to the masses. The prizepools are large, with DraftKings offering a $25K GPP with a $20 entry fee, as well as others at various price points. The future is looking bright and I expect to see the game growing rapidly as we approach the end of the season and transition into MLS this summer.
For today though, we focus on our Saturday slate of games which includes six matches, and skips over arguably the most important fixtures of the season. On Sunday, the top four teams in the Premier League play each other in what could end up being the weekend that determined the winner of the league. Obviously, anything can happen from here on out, but if Leicester manage to defeat Arsenal on the road, the remainder of their matches would make for smooth sailing to the promise land and thus cap the most unlikely “rags to riches” story in the history of ALL of sports.
For Saturday’s matches however, we don’t have such luck. The forwards are questionable, the midfielders are not the big names we like to roster, and there are no obvious cheap defenders. Roster construction will be tricky and this will be the week to possibly go for a balanced lineup without overspending for anybody. I’ll try to give my best plays at every position but hope that when the time comes and managers release their lineups that we can have some value show up to make our lives easier.
Goalkeepers
Fraser Forster, Southampton $3,900 – Southampton and Forster will be the chalk plays for goalkeeper this week as they have reverted back to 2014-15 defensive form in recent weeks. The improvement coincides with the return of Forster to manning the goal. In the five matches since Forster has returned, the Saints have had five straight clean sheets. With a matchup on the road to Swansea, things aren’t quite so easy. Swansea have scored goals in their last four home matches and their midfield is looking brighter with Gylfi Sigurdsson excelling in his number 10 role. Forster is a bit of a risky play, but he’s also the most talented keeper available on the slate. And given his price tag, he’s worth taking. For another option you could go to Thibaut Courtois of Chelsea but he’s $4,300. If you can find the savings, then you should target Courtois as a more reliable option. But Forster carries higher saves upside as well.
Heurelho Gomes, Watford $3,300 – Gomes and Watford travel to Crystal Palace, who are in the midst of a terrible streak of 1 point in their last six matches and just a single win since Boxing Day. Gomes is playing behind a mediocre defense that allows a decent amount of shots and likely won’t get a clean sheet and (may not even get a win), but the opposition has been very lackluster on offense in recent weeks that I wouldn’t be surprised if Gomes ends up reaching 10-15 fantasy points just by virtue of 3-5 saves and a win or a clean sheet.
Defenders
Adam Smith, Bournemouth $3,500 – Charlie Daniels has been getting a bit of exposure in daily fantasy circles recently due to his spot kick duties. However, you can’t rely on penalty kicks in your selections. And while Daniels has been delivering crosses as well, I believe that Smith is the better defensive option. Smith has been piling on the defensive statistics in recent weeks with adding interceptions, tackles won as well as crosses to his repertoire. Smith is also $400 cheaper and while he doesn’t carry the same goal upside that Daniels does, for a safe cash play, he’s worth the slight savings.
Sam Byram, West Ham $2,000 – He came on last week against Southampton for James Tomkins, who left with a hamstring injury, and Byram should see the full minute allotment this week at a $2000 price tag. Playing at full back for just 29 minutes last week, he managed six crosses. In this week’s matchup against Norwich I expect that West Ham will press early, giving Byram plenty of stats early on until they gain control of the match. At that $2K price tag, you can do much, much worse.
Pape Souare, Crystal Palace $3,300 – While Palace have been abysmal offensively in recent weeks, what that means is that the defenders have had mounting pressure on them. Soare is the sort of defender that can deliver on both sides of the ball. as he has had five interceptions in his last three matchups and he has reached double digit crossing totals in other matchups. At just $3,300, he might be just the mid-priced defensive option with upside we need in order to fill out the rest of our roster.
Midfielders
Dimitri Payet, West Ham $7,700 – West Ham failed to score for just the second time this season with Payet as part of the starting eleven last time out. This alone puts in perspective the level of skill that Payet has. He is arguably going to be the top fantasy option week in and week out for the rest of the season, as he can deliver regardless of game flow. Last weekend, with Southampton dominating West Ham, Payet still ended up with 12 crosses and 16 total fantasy points. Payet is a lock to double digit points with or without a goal. Note: if you choose to move away from Payet, Willian, Ross Barkley and Gylfi Sigurdsson are all adequate replacements at varying price points.
Wilfried Zaha, Crystal Palace $5,100 – Crystal Palace have been dreadful on offense in recent weeks. I believe that may change this week as they start to round back into form after they scored a goal in three consecutive matches. Zaha has been very active for Palace in the last four game weeks with the most touches in the final third. Look for Zaha to continue to press forward and to force Watford to defend him.
James McClean, West Brom $5,500 – Outside of Willian, McClean has the most crosses of any player in the last four gameweeks. This week’s matchup is a bit concerning as he’s facing off against an Everton squad that has back to back 3-0 wins and will likely be pushing for a third straight win. However, as game flows go, if West Brom fall behind early, that gives McClean and his team a chance to put the pressure on Everton’s defensive backs through crosses and corners. If that happens, McClean could be in for double digit crosses.
Forwards
Gerard Deulofeu, Everton $5,400 – You know you should roster Romelu Lukaku if you can fit him in. That’s not going to be a great help for me to recommend him. You want Lukaku because he’s the only high priced forward who is starting at home who’s not wearing a face mask because he broke his nose on Thursday (that would be Diego Costa). However, you also want to consider Gerard Deulofeu. The Frenchman is listed as a forward in the DraftKings game, but he’s really an attacking midfielder who can produce crosses through set pieces and can score or deliver assists and create chances for his team. If Deulofeu does not start, look for Lennon or Cleverley as a cheap utility fill-in if either of them get the start for Everton this week.
Benik Afobe, Bournemouth $4,800 – He’s one of the best value plays on the board given his recent production. With scores against Crystal Palace, Sunderland and Norwich, Afobe is now facing Stoke, who can concede goals with the best of them. Given that this is a home matchup, I believe that Afobe will see a lot of shots, and at his cheap price he is well worth rostering in both cash games and tournaments.
Charlie Austin, Southampton $4,000 – Here’s to hoping. I am waiting for Southampton to start Charlie Austin over Graziano Pelle every week. I think this might be the matchup that they unleash Chaz from the start of the game. Pelle has failed to score for Southampton since week 11, and if you’re counting at home, Austin has already scored once for Southampton against Manchester United off the bench. It’s only a matter of time, and at $4,000 he’s a must play if he starts.