EPL DFS Targets: Saturday, February 27th
We have a five-game slate on Saturday, one that features three matches with fairly even odds and two games with overwhelming favorites.
Moreover, there are only four players listed at above $7,000 on DraftKings, so making rosters should theoretically be easy this weekend. The lack of elite options means we’ll have to look for balance in our lineups as we attempt to navigate the Saturday slate.
As always be sure to check the lineups Saturday morning to ensure that your selections are actually playing.
If you’re new to soccer and want a bit of a primer on how to play, you should check out my new guide.
Goalkeepers
Cash Goalkeeper
Kaspar Schmeichel, Leicester $4,300 – The easy option at goalkeeper this week is to go with the heavy favorites at Leicester. Leicester is playing at home against a weak Norwich squad that has only scored three goals in their last six away matches and just seven goals overall. Norwich are currently in terrible form with a six-game winless streak and facing the team that is atop the premier league won’t do them any favors. Schmeichel probably won’t face a lot of attack as Norwich have been in the bottom five in away shot attempts this season, so this limits Schmeichel’s upside as he won’t be a recipient of a tremendous amount of shots on target.
Tournament Goalkeeper
Thibaut Courtois, Chelsea $3,900 – Playing on the road at the Saints will be a tough matchup for any team. However, Chelsea have rounded into form under Guus Hiddink and with rumors of a new manager for next season, the Blues will want to go out and put on a show of support for Hiddink, who has helped turn their season around somewhat. Hiddink has changed the culture around Chelsea now that supporters are hinting at potentially challenging for a spot in Europe by season’s end, which is remarkable given that they were worried about relegation just a few weeks ago. One reason to target the Chelsea keeper however is that Southampton has allowed opponents to record the highest number of saves of any team on this slate, and with them scoring just three goals in their last four matches, Chelsea faces them at a great opportunity to potentially nab a win here. Even if Chelsea does not win, Courtois is in great position to at least record a high number of saves given that Southampton will want to record a win on their home soil.
Defenders
For Defenders, I usually use the same defenders in both cash and GPPs. There is little variance in defenders as the top options are few, and the value options are very valuable, making it illogical to use different defenders in different formats. Below are my top four options on the day.
Aly Sissokho, Aston Villa $3,700 – Sissokho has been on crosses and corner kicks along with his teammate Bacuna (the other full back) This has led to Sissokho and Bacuna having some value in DFS due to their high likelihood of reaching value based on the number of crosses they take. In a matchup with Stoke that should be difficult to break apart from either side, Sissokho may find himself with corner kick opportunities that can lead to a decent return on the day.
Martin Kelly, Crystal Palace $2,000 – Kelly is starting for the suspended Pape Soare and at a price tag of just $2,000 you can’t turn away from him. Kelly actually started last weekend in the FA cup tie against Tottenham and scored the game winning goal. If he can repeat that feat (unlikely) he’ll return at least 6-10x his value, but even if he doesn’t score, you can’t turn away a 2K starter on defense.
Dionatan Teixeira, Stoke $2,000 – Speaking of 2K starters on defense, Dionatan Teixeira should get the start at full back for Stoke who are in dire need for ANYBODY who can play defense right now after a rash of injuries nearly took out their entire back line. Phil Bardsley and Mark Muniesa may still play which would rule out Teixeira and if they do then I would prefer Bardsley who is priced at $2,100 for Stoke. I don’t expect much from either of them, but if you wanted another cheap defender, one of these two should be able to at least give you a chance.
Christian Fuchs, Leicester City $4,600 – The most expensive defender on the board this week is actually in a good spot to deliver on his price. Fuchs is currently on corner kick duty along with Marc Albrighton for the Foxes. Leicester is looking to continue to win out in order to hold on to the title they are angling to win for the first time in their history. Fuchs has potential to assist or score given his role in the offense as a pacey full back. For his price though, he could be low owned making him very appealing in tournament formats.
Midfielders
Marc Albrighton, Leicester City $6,200 – He’s recently taken back crossing and corner kick duties from Riyad Mahrez which puts Albrighton as a great cash game play this week. If game flow works in his favor and Leicester fail to score in the first half, then expect them to push the tempo looking for that first goal which would mean that players like Albrighton and Fuchs would increase their value tremendously and I wouldn’t be surprised if Albrighton ends up with double digit crosses if Leicester don’t score an early goal. If they do score an early goal I can see Albrighton ending with six crosses and potentially a few more peripheral stats that lead to a 10-15 fantasy point night, so he’s worth a roster regardless, but his highest upside would be 20+ points if things go his way.
Jordan Mutch, Crystal Palace $2,600 – If Mutch starts on the wing again as he did in the FA cup match against Tottenham then he’s one of my favorite midfield options on the slate as his price is very low for the potential. Palace however are getting Yannick Bolasie back from a long absence and may choose to start him again. But if Mutch does get the start at the wing, then I like him to be on corner kick duty, and to get close to 5-10 crosses and potentially a couple of shots.
Carles Gil, Aston Villa $3,500 – One of the side effects of Stoke being so injured on defense is you can target the opposing team’s offense. Unfortunately, the opposing team is Aston Villa so you can’t reliably take anybody on that team and feel good about it. Or so you’d think. Carles Gil has been taking corners for Villa and with the opposition looking weak at the back, Villa may find themselves in the rare position to be constantly attacking, and if Villa’s underwhelming attack doesn’t score a goal, then that only helps Carles Gil who will continue a barrage of crosses into the box to test the Stoke defense.
Matt Ritchie, Bournemouth $5,800 – Ritchie came off the bench last time out for the Cherries and managed six crosses in just a single half of play with his team down. Now with Bournemouth on the road to Watford I expect them to be up against it again which increases the value of Ritchie. I wouldn’t trust him off the bench however, so this recommendation comes with the caveat that he gets the start.
Options that should be considered if you can afford them
If you can afford any of Willian, Mahrez, Tadic, or Cabaye, they make excellent options. Each carry a decent floor and a tremendous ceiling.
Forwards
Jamie Vardy, Leicester $7,400 – It is very difficult to fade Vardy this week with all the value that has presented itself and with him in spectacular form in a great matchup. Vardy has four goals in his last three matches and he’s been looking deadlier than ever. With 19 total goals on the season he’s the leagues top scorer, and in a matchup against Norwich in which I expect that Leicester will have their way, I think Vardy scores in this matchup.
Odion Ighalo, Watford $6,600 – With Ighalo goalless in three matches plenty of people will be off of him as they fear that he’s priced too high, this may be the right time to take a chance on him. In fact, if you look at the underlying numbers, Ighalo has had an average of 22 touches in the final third in the last six weeks in which he failed to score, however, he averaged just 18 touches in the previous seven weeks, in which he scored five goals. Ighalo is getting the opportunities and at some point they will convert. With nine shots in the last three weeks I believe he’s soon to convert one or two of them, and this week could be the time to do it.
Rudy Gestede, Aston Villa $3,200 – One of the GPP plays I like this week is Rudy Gestede, who comes back from injury and could start at striker right away, thus pushing Agbolnahor to the wing. Gestede is very cheap and facing a potentially porous defense. I like Gestede this week, if he does get the start, and pairing him with Carles Gil is a great GPP option that I believe won’t be highly owned.