EPL DFS Targets: Saturday, January 16th
With a short rest between the midweek matches and this weekend’s EPL matches, we again will have to wait till final lineups are out early Saturday morning. But before we do, we should get a heads up on what to expect in this weekend’s fixtures and the matchups that can help guide us towards some cash game and GPP success.
Goalkeepers
Cash Goalkeeper: Joe Hart, Manchester City $4,400 – Manchester City are facing a Crystal Palace squad that is struggling to find its offensive form in recent weeks. In the last three weeks they have not managed to score a single goal, and are missing any offensive firepower that can provide them with a chance at making goals. With just 7 shots on target off of 27 total shots they are the worst offense in the league in this period. This makes me comfortable taking Joe Hart this week despite City’s lapses in defense in recent weeks.
GPP Goalkeeper: Robert Elliot, Newcastle $3,600 – I’m going to be recommending Dimitri Payet later as a cash game play (spoiler alert!), but I think that Elliot’s appeal doesn’t come from the potential of a clean sheet, but rather from the potential of a heavy workload. West Ham and Newcastle are somewhat even in the bookmakers eyes, and West Ham have had a run of 7 goals in their last three matches with 19 shots on target. That conversion rate is pretty high that I would take a gamble in a GPP that they won’t convert as many. Moreover, Elliot is capable of a big game as he’s shown in the recent past with 6 and 7 save outings.
Defenders
Ryan Bertrand, Southampton $3,800 – Bertrand didn’t perform as expected last time out for the Saints. That can be attributed to the change of formation with Dusan Tadic being dropped from the lineup and Bertrand moved out of the wing position in favor of Targett. Targett had a great game with 10 crosses, and if he starts again I’m using him at just $2,200. However, I think that Targett will sit this matchup and Tadic will get back in the start with Bertrand going back to his role in the previous matches where he notched 12 crosses against Norwich.
Leandro Bacuna, Aston Villa $3,100 – Aston Villa are in a matchup against Leicester who allow a significant amount of crosses. Bacuna plays the full back position for Villa and can deliver in terms of crosses, tackles and interceptions. He doesn’t have much upside, but in terms of likely crossing defenders, he is on the list of players to consider.
Aleksandar Kolarov, Manchester City $5,600 – There are weeks where I fade Kolarov entirely, then there are weeks where the matchup, opportunity and game scenario plays perfectly. Kolarov should be on everybody’s radar this weekend as he faces a Crystal Palace team that allows plenty of crosses. In his last match against a team that allows a similar number of crosses (Leicester) Kolarov had 10 crosses to go with 2 shots, 2 tackles won and an interception. Kolarov has 15-20 point upside in this matchup, but beware with his high price as he has been known to deliver sub-10 point performances even in good matchups.
Midfielders
Dimitri Payet, West Ham United $6,700 – He is entirely too cheap for what he brings to the table at almost $1K cheaper than Willian and $1.5K cheaper than Kevin De Bruyne, Payet makes the best option at midfield for cash games. He’s going to deliver crosses, shots and he even scored twice in the reverse fixture back in gameweek 5. Payet returned from injury midweek with a start that saw him score once and assist in another goal leading to a 30 point outing. I wouldn’t recommend fading Payet on Saturday.
Florian Thauvin, Newcastle $3,300 – This is a play that is heavily contingent on the starting lineups, HOWEVER, there are reports that he’s back from injury and with Newcastle looking better against Manchester United midweek, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s given a chance on a team that is looking to continue to show good results to escape from the relegation zone. In weeks that Thauvin started on the wing he has averaged 10 crosses (Against Leicester and Watford back in November and September.) You must ensure that he’s starting for Newcastle on the wings, and if he is, he would be my favorite to take the majority of their crosses.
Kevin De Bruyne, Manchester City $8,300 – It will be tough to build lineups which feature both Payet and KDB, but I’ll be doing my best to actually do that as long as value presents itself on Saturday morning. KDB had 20 crosses last weekend and had 6 chances created to go with it. Unfortunately, City failed to score in that match despite coming close a few times. I expect that they’ll manage to score several goals this week, and I predict that KDB and Aguero will be heavily involved in that action. Pairing the two is a good strategy in GPPs, but I wouldn’t do it if you can’t find reliable players to pair them with. At the least, you should have De Bruyne in cash as he’s going to continue to provide a very high floor with even higher upside.
Jordan Veretout, Aston Villa $4,900 – While Bacuna provides some crosses for Villa, the real crossing threat is Veretout who plays behind the striker in most weeks. Veretout has had several weeks where he’s delivered double digit crosses this season, and in a matchup against Leicester, he should be able to deliver close to that once more.
Junior Stanislas, Bournemouth $5,000 – Bournemouth face Norwich at home in what should be an interesting match between the two Premier League debutants. Stanislas has been consistent in his performances in recent weeks in terms of his touches in the final third and even had 6 crosses against West Ham in the midweek fixture. I Expect that he’ll continue that trend and push double digit crosses and potentially double digit fantasy points in a positive matchup against Norwich.
Forwards
Sergio Aguero, Manchester City $8,400 – I’m going back to the well for more. Be it more blanks from Aguero when it comes to the scoring department, or more upside as he is, in my opinion, the most likely forward to score on Saturday given the matchup and the upside. In the last three game weeks Aguero has taken 11 shots and only has a single goal to show for it. With matchups against Leicester and Everton out of the way, we look forward to Crystal Palace coming to the Etihad where Aguero should look to score a couple of goals to keep his fantasy owners happy.
Salomon Rondon, West Brom $4,100 – West Brom is an underdog in this matchup but I think the matchup will be closer than expected. This play is strictly a GPP play as plenty of people will be on Southampton’s keeper, Forster, so targeting Rondon will ensure low ownership. I believe that Rondon can actually produce some quality shots in this matchup and sometimes, that’s all you can ask for from a cheap forward.
Jamie Vardy, Leicester $7,100 – If you’re going to go away from Aguero, getting Vardy would be a good play to target. He’s had a tough few weeks, but a matchup against Aston Villa who are worst in the league might prove to be the cure to what ails Vardy and Mahrez. Mahrez is much too expensive to use in a cash lineup, but Vardy should be priced at 8K+ and at 7,100 this is a discount that we can take advantage of.
Other Forwards to consider: Enner Valencia (West Ham, $4,400), Benik Afobe (Bournemouth $3,700), Romelu Lukaku (Everton, $8,100), Diego Costa (Chelsea, $6,500), Gerard Deulofeu (Everton, $5,700)