EPL DFS Targets: Saturday, March 12th
With just a two game slate this week for EPL on Saturday (discounting the early match) we’re going to break down the slate this week game by game. Let me know in the comments if there is anything specific you’d like to see in these game breakdowns that would be helpful in the future.
Southampton vs Stoke City
Venue: Brittania Stadium (Stoke City)
Odds:
- Southampton to win: 34.7%
- Stoke to win: 30.7%
- Tie: 36.5%*
Note: Odds don’t add up to 100% because the sites calculate the vig in their implied odds to win
Previous Matchups
These two met once this season and it resulted in a Stoke victory courtesy of a Bojan goal at the 10th minute (assisted by Erik Pieters) In that matchup, Southampton held almost 60% of the possession, while Stoke had more shots than Southampton. Southampton had 40 crosses to Stoke’s 10, with Dusan Tadic delivering 16 crosses, and Shane Long and Cedric Soares both delivering 8.
Southampton
The Saints enter this matchup on a three game winless run where they’ve lost to Chelsea, they’ve lost to Bournemouth and tied with Sunderland 1-1. They disappointed many DFS owners last week in what was expected to be an open match but they barely rescued a point with a 92nd minute goal from Virgil Van Dijk to tie the match 1-1. In that match they held 67% of the possession and controlled the pace for virtually the entire time. They looked vulnerable at the back though as they allowed Wahbi Khazri to roam into their defense and threaten. Ultimately the goal they conceded was a result of a defensive blunder and a marking mixup that has been all too common for this Southampton side this season.
Elite Plays
Fraser Forster, Goalkeeper $3,900 – There is a good chance this is a very low scoring slate due to a lack of elite goal scorers. This would mean that there is a small chance that all four goalkeepers could end up with clean sheet bonuses here, and while that is unlikely, the next best thing is to target goalkeepers who will see a large variety of save opportunities. In this case, I believe that road keepers tend to face more shots and with Southampton looking weak at the back in recent weeks, Forster may be in a position to make more than a few saves this weekend.
Secondary Plays
Ryan Bertrand, Defender $4,200 – He’s been taking about half of the corners for his squad in recent weeks, but the only problem is that Southampton haven’t been getting many corners. In their last 3 away games they have had a total of nine corners and the only game they led in possession was against Bournemouth. Stoke are a strong possession team especially at home, I don’t expect that Southampton will get plenty of ball time and will likely be forcing Bertrand to sit back most of the game.
James Ward-Prowse, Midfielder $4,000 – If he starts he takes the other half of the corners for the Saints. I predict that he will get the start for the Saints this week. He also is on free kick duty which amplifies his potential for a score or at least a shot on target or two. Southampton are looking for something to stop their slide and will be potentially looking for their young 21 year old midfielder to help guide them there.
Graziano Pelle, Forward $5,000 – I’m adding a third secondary play this week since this is a short slate, but Graziano Pelle is a pure GPP play that cannot be ignored. He played his first full match since December 19th last weekend and is probably going to play the full match this weekend as well. He has failed to find the back of the net since November 1st and has otherwise looked incredibly pedestrian. Southampton will need his goal scoring to come back at some point this season, and this week may be the right time for him to finally break out of his prolonged funk.
Stoke City
The home team in this situation benefits from a sizeable home field advantage. The Brittania is routinely one of the tougher places to play in the Premier League and this season has proved to be no exception. They have allowed just 14 goals at home in 14 games at home this season and have 13 points of 18 possible in their last six on their home ground. They are coming off a week where they were almost victors at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea, and will look to add three more points to move themselves closer to a Europa League spot as they currently sit just six points out of 5th place and a guaranteed Europa League spot.
Elite Plays
Jack Butland, Goalkeeper $3,600 – Butland is a slight underdog at home, which is a unique situation given how Stoke have played recently. I think that Stoke have the potential to win this game and that with Southampton’s lack of goal scoring prowess in recent weeks I think Butland has a better chance at a clean sheet than Forster. Butland will be my top goalkeeper as he’s slightly cheaper and has as much upside as any other keeper on the slate.
Xherdan Shaqiri, Midfielder $6,700 – Shaqiri will be the highest owned player in this slate, the only competition will be Gylfi Sigurdsson of Swansea (more on him later). Shaqiri has three games in a row with double digit crossing numbers, and in the previous five games he’s had at least double digit fantasy points. He has one of the highest floors of anybody this weekend and is worth putting in all your rosters.
Secondary Plays
Geoff Cameron, Defender $2,500 – Starting at full back, Cameron has potential to deliver on a depressed price tag against a team that allows a decent amount of crosses. Southampton’s full backs like to attack, which gives a chance to target the opponent full backs and wing players. This puts Cameron in play.
Mame Biram Diouf, Forward $3,700 – Another underpriced play that is worth your consideration if only for the sole fact that he’ll be the lone striker for Stoke and after scoring the equalizer against Chelsea least weekend he’s probably going to get the chance to start again this weekend. Diouf is underpriced for his potential, but this is a GPP play only as, like I said earlier, there might be very few goals this weekend.
Marko Arnautovic, Forward $5,200 – He’s a pure GPP play, but he’ll take 2-4 shots and deliver a cross or two. He’s a very intelligent player that likes to push the pace and has developed a good partnership with Xherdan Shaqiri that may prove profitable this weekend.
Swansea at Bournemouth
Venue: Dean Court (Bournemouth)
Odds:
- Swansea to win: 22.3%
- Bournemouth to win: 50.7%
- Tie: 22.3%
Note: Odds don’t add up to 100% because the sites calculate the vig in their implied odds to win
Previous Matchups
In the only meeting between these two clubs this season, Swansea clawed back two goals back after falling down 0-2 in the first 26 minutes. Jonjo Shelvey scored and assisted for Swansea, unfortunately, the Jonjo is no longer with the team, so they will have to rely on someone else to deliver the goods in this matchup. The biggest difference for Swanse was that they didn’t have Gylfi Sigurdsson for a full 90 minutes in that match as he subbed on at the 70th minute. As for Bournemouth, they held the majority of the possession and controlled the opening 25 minutes of play, and the closing 10 minutes of play as they tried to claw their way back to victory. Bournemouth will enter this matchup looking to get all three points as they lead Swansea by only two points as they inch closer to safety and avoiding relegation.
Swansea
Starting with the away team, Swansea are actually coming off two great wins in their bid to remain in the top flight with a 2-1 win over Arsenal and a 1-0 win over Norwich. In those games Swansea played different styles as they let Arsenal control possession while they sprinkled in their attack in order to try to get the win, and they were successful. In the second match against Norwich, Gylfi Sigurdsson shined as he delivered eight crosses and took four shots while scoring a goal.
Elite Plays
Gylfi Sigurdsson, Midfielder $7,500 – Matched up with Harry Arter and Andrew Surman, Sigurdsson should have the upper hand in these matchups as these defenders will struggle a bit to deal with him. I expect that Gylfi will have a decent amount of crosses and shots, and while his price is high, if Swansea score any goals, you can expect there is a good chance that Gylfi is right in the thick of it.
Secondary Plays
Alberto Paloschi, Forward $4,200 – Since his arrival at the Welsh club, Paloschi has scored just a single goal on nine shots. While the production doesn’t appear to be there at the moment, he’s getting more acclimated at the club and a breakthrough will come soon. He’s a secondary play as I think Swansea may have trouble getting production out of anybody other than Sigurdsson, but Paloschi could be at the end of a cross that could be a goal scoring opportunity.
Andre Ayew, Midfielder $5,300 – He’s about the only other competent midfielder on this Swansea team that is lacking in overall skill outside of the top 3-4 players. Ayew is one of those players. He has the skill to navigate through the defense and take shots. In recent weeks he hasn’t shown much of that skill as his fantasy output has been entrenched in the single digits for five matches in a row now, however, he has the potential to achieve it. And on such a short slate, sometimes you may need to look his way.
Bournemouth
The home team enters this matchup as a heavy favorite and they’ll be looking to confirm that designation. The Cherries are coming off three positive point weeks in which they defeated Southampton and Newcastle while tying with Watford on the road. The matchup with Swansea should be a favorable one for them this week as they look to gain three more points that propels them to 12th place in the table and further gives them hope to remain the English top flight.
Elite Plays
Matt Ritchie, Midfielder $6,600 – Ritchie is a great play this week and would be in an excellent position if he gets the start. In his last six matches in which he got the start, Ritchie has managed to collect double digit points in each match and he has two assists and a goal in that span. Ritchie is a great play that should be in your cash games.
Max Gradel, Forward $4,600 – This is a price play more than anything else. For what Gradel is capable of doing, his price still hasn’t risen to the point that it needs to be at. Gradel can deliver crosses, and take shots. In a matchup that the oddsmakers expect that Bournemouth will dominate, Gradel makes for a great play.
Secondary Plays
Charlie Daniels, Defender, $4,600 – He’s too overpriced to really put in your teams unless you load up on value and forego some of the higher priced midfielders, but Daniels carries value as a full back who pushes up in the attack as well as the main penalty kick taker for the side.
Benik Afobe, Forward $4,700 – He’s similarly priced to Gradel and as a forward who may or may not score but do nothing else, he’s a tad overpriced. However, if he starts as the lone striker for Bournemouth, he could be in for a big night if Swansea concede.