EPL DFS Targets: Saturday, October 3rd

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2015-10-05 22:54:30

Welcome to another week of daily fantasy soccer. We are in the eighth week of the Premier League, and there are plenty of questions for this week as this slate doesn’t lend itself to easy decisions. That’s okay, because I am here to help you navigate you through this slate.

This week we don’t have many easy favorites. In fact, the only easy favorite is Manchester City with their home date with Newcastle. Chelsea are also at home in the late match with Southampton, and Eden Hazard rested midweek so he’s a key play. I didn’t write him up because I chose to save salary in midfield, but I do believe that he can have a good game. Beyond that, you should keep an eye on the starting lineups as we head into the international break next week. I expect that there will be some squad rotation, as well as injuries that may keep some players out of this weekend’s matchups. As always, you can ask me questions here in the comments or on twitter where I’ll be hanging out Saturday morning.

Good luck this weekend.

Odds

Opponent Stats

Goalkeepers

Joe Hart, Manchester City $5,700 – The top goalkeeper spot in all my articles is reserved for the biggest favorites on the board and this week is no exception. Hart and Manchester City are playing hosts to Newcastle this week. Hart’s price is through the roof and you’ll have to get a bit creative in order to fit more Manchester City players in your lineup if you want to stack that game (hint: you want to stack that game, probably). Don’t let Newcastle scare you after they managed to take a 2-2 draw with Chelsea last week. Chelsea has been weak at the back especially on the road. Newcastle are at the Etihad this weekend and on the road this season have managed only 8.3 shots and have managed the least total amount of shots on target (only 6). Hart won’t get many saves, but the clean sheet bonus and the win should be the safest bet this weekend.

Maarten Stekelenburg, Southampton $4,200 – This is a risky move, and I’ve considered putting Kasper Schmeichel or Adrian in this spot as my cheap goalkeeper selection. This is obviously a GPP move as Chelsea should be a good team this season based off of skills and some metrics. I expect Chelsea to get their game back in form, but that will require some changes to the side and I’m not sure if Jose Mourinho is ready to give up on whatever it is he is doing just yet. For this match I expect that Southampton will be under pressure for a while, and I think that Stekelenburg can produce some saves that can justify selecting him. For his price you only need about 8-12 points and 4-6 saves with a goal allowed isn’t out of the possibility.

Other Goalkeepers to Consider: Asmir Begovic (Chelsea, $5,400), Adrian (West Ham United, $4,900), Kasper Schmeichel (Leicester, $4,400)

Defenders

Aleksandar Kolarov, Manchester City $6,600 – Kolarov has proven time and time again that he’s a great DFS option, but he also severely limits you salary wise, as his price is that of an above average midfielder. If Manchester City don’t utilize him on the wing then he won’t return value. This week though is not the week to worry about such things, as City host Newcastle and should be in complete control of this matchup. Kolarov should have his way roaming up and down the left flank and dropping in crosses.

Jordan Amavi, Aston Villa $4,500 – For the price, Amavi might be my favorite defender this week. Aston Villa host Stoke this week and Stoke have been a bad team on the road with only two points, three goals; they are bottom five in most offensive categories, including touches in the final third, chances created, and shots. I expect that Aston Villa will manage to control the tempo of this matchup, giving Amavi a chance to showcase some of his offensive talents.

Allan Nyom , Watford $4,100 – If you want a second cheap defender, Allan Nyom is in a good spot, but he is a GPP option on the road to Bournemouth. I believe this matchup carries importance to both teams and there is a small chance it ends in a 0-0 draw, especially with Bournemouth missing out on Callum Wilson for the season after that injury last week. Nyom can shoot, deliver crosses and create assists.

Other Defenders to Consider: Charlie Daniels (Bournemouth, $3,600), Simon Francis (Bournemouth, $4,400), Bacary Sagna (Manchester City, $4,700), Aaron Cresswell (West Ham, $5,200), Carl Jenkinson (West Ham, $4,400)

Midfielders

Matthew Ritchie, Bournemouth $5,500 – Bournemouth will be without Callum Wilson for a long time after his injury last weekend. This leaves an offense that desperately needs Matty Ritchie to step up and provide opportunities for his teammates. With Bournemouth as a home favorite against fellow newly-promoted Watford, I expect them to control possession this match and that should play right into Ritchie’s hands, as he can deliver crosses and create chances for his teammates that leads to shots and potential goals.

Kevin De Bruyne, Manchester City $7,300 – Okay, here’s the thing. De Bruyne is coming off two Premier League matches in which he scored goals and was influential in the City attack. Then, during the midweek in the matchup against Borussia M’Gladbach, there were lots of people concerned about his ability to perform (including myself) in that match after he moved back on the wing. However, he lived on the wing and delivered several crosses. STATS Inc. counted five, while OPTA counted 10 crosses, so the value is there and the opportunity is there. And, targeting the Manchester City attack is a positive move for Saturday, as they should be expected to dominate possession and score a few goals.

Dimitri Payet, West Ham United $8,700 – If you want to spend up a bit at midfield and not target Manchester City, but instead go after Sunderland, who have consistently been one of the worst teams in the Premier League this season, Dimitri Payet is the player you want. Payet has actually had a good season so far and is coming off a three-match stretch in which he’s either scored or assisted. On the season Payet has 19 chances created with three assists, which is slightly above average, and with West Ham playing at home, he should create a few more chances for his teammates, particularly Diafra Sakho (WHM, $8,500).

Other Midfielders to Consider: Eden Hazard (Chelsea, $10,200), Riyad Mahrez (Leicester, $10,100), David Silva (Manchester City, $8,700), Ashley Westwood (Aston Villa, $3,900), Nathan Redmond (Norwich, $6,000), Manuel Jurado (Watford, $4,400), Dusan Tadic (Southampton, $9,600)

Forwards

Sergio Aguero, Manchester City $11,000 – Aguero is going to be the highest owned player this week, given how much City are favored by. Expect him to be heavily owned in cash games (maybe close to 50-80% at higher buy-ins), and there is nothing wrong with that. I can’t see how you fade him in your cash lineup. However, I might seriously consider putting him aside for a GPP lineup or two, because not including him on your team can allow you to target some of the high priced midfielders who can go off. There is a risk, however, with Aguero that he might not play the full 90 minutes given that this is City’s third match in eight days, so if you take him, you are hoping that he does his damage in his limited time, which he is very capable of doing.

Glenn Murray, Bournemouth $5,000 – Bournemouth lost out on Callum Wilson, and Murray looks to be the player who jumps in and takes his place. Murray makes a good pairing combo with Matt Ritchie, as they can combine for a score. Murray has no goals on the season but he also hasn’t had any true opportunities yet, with only seven shots on the season and two starts (both with Crystal Palace before he transferred over). Expect Murray to give it a shot Saturday in order to get his goal tally started with his new club in his expected first start.

Rudy Gestede, Aston Villa $5,300 – Aston Villa are hosting Stoke, who are expected to be missing Shaqiri, which weakens their overall attack. I expect Aston Villa to win this matchup and for Gestede to help with that. He has 18 shots on the season and has managed to convert three of them into goals. He should get plenty of shots again this match and you can’t really fade him given his price and projected opportunities.

Other Forwards to Consider: Graziano Pelle (Southampton, $9,300), Pedro (Chelsea, $8,500), Sadio Mane (Southampton, $9,000), Diafra Sakho (West Ham, $8,500), Odion Ighalo (Watford, $7,200), Cameron Jerome (Norwich, $5,700), Bojan Krkic (Stoke, $5,200, only if he starts as a striker not attacking midfielder)