EPL DFS Targets: Wednesday, April 20th
With a short midweek slate we have some interesting tournaments over on DraftKings including a $530 Qualifier to the King of the Pitch tournament. I don’t have any teams in there, but if you happen to be playing this slate in an attempt to win a seat to the final, good luck today.
I’ll be going through some of my favorite plays for this slate along with some overall thoughts on where to spend up and where to look for value. After all, these teams all played last weekend and are going on very short rest. There are only four matches today and all the home teams are heavily favored.
Goalkeeper
David De Gea, Manchester United $4,400 – As one of the bigger favorites on the board, it’s easy to gravitate to De Gea, he’s up there with Petr Cech as a 1A and a 1B for this slate. I do prefer De Gea however due to the $100 savings on DraftKings. Also, Manchester United has been formidable at home this season with some excellent defending. However, a lot of that depends on the squad that they trot out. If Fosu-Mensah starts I like their defense a lot better than if they had to rely on the likes of Matteo Darmian. Also, United facing a Crystal Palace squad that played on Sunday could be a good place to target defenders to match up with De Gea.
Joel Robles, Everton $3,500 – The Merseyside derby is one of the more fun derbys in all of English sports. These games can either be shootouts or they can be fast paced with lots of opportunities for a goalkeeper to excel. Robles comes in as a big underdog, but if you look at Everton’s recent road matches, they seem to have overperformed and that has led to some close calls and even some clean sheets. I am not expecting any clean sheets here, as Liverpool have been potent offensively recently, but I do think that Robles gets his fair share of saves to make him a viable option for GPPs. Really, if he can get to double digits through saves alone and potentially the win, he’d be worth his cheap salary even if he concedes a goal or two.
Defenders
Normally for defenders, I like to target value full backs once lineups are released. This week I expect a lot of squad rotation, so here are a few players that I expect will get the start based on injuries, suspensions and squad rotation because of packing plenty of games in a short order of time.
Timothy Fosu-Mensah, Manchester United $2,900 – Fosu-Mensah has shown to be a good defender, he has potential to get 5 tackles and 5 interceptions. And end up reaching double digit points without any shots or crosses. He does have the potential to assist in the United attack. United are very fond of this youngster with his natural ability and his athleticism, I can see him being a regular fixture in their squad for years to come.
Bryan Oviedo, Everton $3,500 – With the injury to Seamus Coleman, I think that Oviedo should get the start here and he has a good chance to be productive in the Merseyside derby. Oviedo does have a low floor, but he can potentially jump in to cross the ball and would take a shot or two. This puts him in a perfect spot for some GPPs as most will likely look to spend less than 3K for defenders.
Sam Byram, West Ham $2,500 – He’ll probably start at the fullback position allowing Michael Antonio to push front as part of the front three. At his cheap price of $2,500 he’s worth a chance on your teams. If he were to get 3x all you need is 7.5 points which can be had through a clean sheet and a couple of crosses and tackles. All within reason on this West Ham team.
Midfielders
Dimitri Payet, West Ham $8,700 – He’s the top play on the slate and can have 20 fantasy points without a single shot on target due to his high floor on crosses as he did in his last matchup against Leicester. Of course Leicester allow plenty of crosses, and Watford play a more “contained” style of play. This style of play limits the crossing upside, but it also increases the shot upside of Payet and in return the goal scoring potential. Payet’s price is extremely prohibitive, but there might be enough value out there to make him work. If you need to pivot elsewhere I would go with Ozil, Coutinho or Juan Mata, all at a significant price decrease, but also a lower floor.
James Milner, Liverpool $6,900 – Milner is another option to go to if you decide to pivot off of Payet. In my early lineup construction, I haven’t been able to fit both Milner and Payet on the same team, but I won’t give up and will be trying to do so when lineups come out if I can find the value necessary. As I mentioned above, the Merseyside derby is a fun one to watch and players always step up for it. I expect that Milner will continue his good form that saw him with double digit crosses, and 2 assists in his last two matches against an Everton team that has shown lapses on defense (though have been playing well recently)
Alex Iwobi, Arsenal $4,100 – Arsenal should be a popular play this week, and if you want to avoid missing out on a cheap attacking midfielder who might be 60% owned, you should put Iwobi in your lineups. Iwobi makes things really fit together and if he gets the start would be a great value play for an Arsenal team that is expected to attack the Tony Pulis led West Brom Albion. West Brom’s defense has been suspect lately which makes rostering the Arsenal offense that much more appealing as I can see multiple goal upside on this team this week.
Forwards
Alexis Sanchez, Arsenal $7,800 – On the season Alexis Sanchez has just 10 goals and 4 assists in the Premier League, which makes this a very subpar season for him. However, if you consider that since the calendar turned to March he has four goals and 4 assists across all competitions, including three in his last three matches, Sanchez is currently on fire and his price is reflecting that ability and opportunity. As mentioned under the Iwobi writeup, Arsenal should be attacking hard this week to get all three points from WBA as they try to guarantee a top three finish in the Premier League table (currently in 4th with a game in hand and one point behind Manchester City. Alexis Sanchez is a great cash play as well as a GPP play.
Andy Carroll, West Ham $4,600 – Carroll has scored goals in two straight games and at his cheap price he seems silly to fade. However, if you believe that his chances of scoring go down since he has scored in two consecutive appearances, I wouldn’t fault you for fading him. There should be other options at his price point to target other forwards in good spots. However, he’ll be highly owned and if he does score he puts you in a very disadvantageous spot.
Marcus Rashford, Manchester United $5,700 – I wrestled between putting either Gerard Deulofeu, Roberto Firmino or Olivier Giroud in this spot. All four are in similar price points and all four have good chances to score. I chose Rashford because I think United will score two goals this week and I think Rashford will either score both or have a couple of assists. At the very least he will take plenty of shots. The other guys might not start, and will also face a problem of supply as they have other players on their teams that can take the shots. Deulofeu would be in play in cash games for me since he would likely be taking crosses and corners for Everton, while Giroud would also be a highly motivated player trying to win back his spot as the forward for Arsenal. Firmino plays as a false nine and might not even get the start due to squad rotation for Liverpool as they look ahead to the Europa League matches next week. Overall, I can’t fault you for rostering any of these players as they all make great plays for GPPs.