EPL DFS Targets: Wednesday, January 13th
The winter schedule is in full swing and EPL teams are busier than ever. Most teams are in the middle of two-games-a-week schedules as they battle through their FA Cup fixtures, the League Cup and the Premier League. Moreover, teams are in the process of adding and subtracting pieces that can help their teams in the January window.
It will be interesting to see which teams make changes and which ones decide to keep the course as they go through the second half of the season and especially the tough portion of the schedule we are going through now with the short rests between matches.
The Wednesday slate in EPL features seven matches that include several matches with home favorites. These Wednesday matches all start at 2:45 EST which puts them in optimal time for us on DraftKings as that means we don’t have to rush to put lineups in by 10 AM like we normally do. This also means that DK is giving us a giant tournament (the January Jam 40K Clean Sheet).
For this article I’ll focus on Cash vs GPP picks given that this is a big GPP week for EPL to start the new year, so let’s get started
Goalkeeper
Cash Goalkeeper: Thibaut Courtois, Chelsea $4,600 – Targeting cash goalkeepers is interesting for this slate. There are a number of seemingly heavy favorites including Tottenham, Manchester City and Arsenal. However, their opponents are all strong outfits that can score goals with ease. They carry a bit of risk as the clean sheet is unlikely. Lloris is facing Leicester who have been one of the top teams this season, but have had relative hiccups recently, which puts Lloris in play. City are facing Everton and Romelu Lukaku who has been on fire in recent weeks and just scored a goal against them in the cup. Courtois makes the safest choice as his opponents, West Brom play a more subdued type of football and with Chelsea looking to get back on the positive side of things with some decent form, this could be a solid win for the defending champions.
GPP Goalkeeper: Jack Butland, Stoke $3,900 – Stoke have had some impressive results in recent weeks (clean sheets and wins against Manchester United and Manchester City, as well as a thriller 4-3 against Everton), and with Norwich coming to town, they might be able to continue a trend of solid performances that sees them in 10th place currently in the Barclays Premier League. Butland is also capable of tremendous save matches including a nine-save performance against West Ham, and a six-save performance against Manchester United. So the upside is there.
More options for Keeper: Kasper Schmeichel (Leicester $3,500), Heurelho Gomes (Watford $3,300)
Defenders
Ryan Bertrand, Southampton $3,500 – Bertrand may be the highest scoring defender on the day and his price is just $3,500 on DK. The reason I’m so high on him is because of his crosses potential. He’s taken corners for Southampton and in recent weeks has become an all around attacking player. Southampton are projected to be the highest crossing team on Wednesday and Bertrand should push double digit crosses like he did last match against Norwich to go along with two chances created, 42 touches in the final third and three touches in the penalty area. Bertrand should continue that performance and will be on the majority of my teams today.
Erik Pieters, Stoke $4,000 – Stoke are facing a Norwich squad that has allowed close to 23 crosses a game this season and Pieters is an occasional set piece/corner kick taker for Stoke. This is a match that Stoke should control possession and should be a solid option to target either of the full backs Pieters or Johnson for just $500 less.
Branislav Ivanovic, Chelsea $4,300 – Chelsea have two clean sheets in a row and have started to round into form after the dismissal of Jose Mourinho. If you target Chelsea’s keeper then you expect that the defense should be solid. While Ivanovic isn’t the same player he was last season, he’s improved over his early season self and would be worth a look to round out your team.
Jose Holebas, Watford $2,400 – The big guns are mostly in play so you’ve got to target some reliable value at defense somewhere. My pick is Jose Holebas as he finds himself in a potential starting position once again and against a Southampton side that allows 19 crosses a game, Holebas should get himself close to 5-10 fantasy points which won’t kill you for his cheap price.
Further Notes – With the heavy schedule, there are several teams that may opt to rest some regulars which means that some value may show up at defense. For those, I would focus primarily on the ones who are slated to start at the full back position as that is where most of the fantasy production seems to accumulate.
Midfielders
Willian, Chelsea $7,500 – He’s been the most in-form player on Chelsea as they continue their quest to recover from their early season championship-hangover. Willian is the top crosser and corner kick taker for the blues. He also is the free kick specialist and already has several goals this season from free kicks. Chelsea is expected to dominate possession against West Brom and under Guus Hiddink they’ve pushed the pace more than they did under the guidance of Jose Mourinho.
Kevin De Bruyne, Manchester City $8,000 – If you’re going to pay up somewhere, the midfield seems like the safest spot as KDB has been playing excellent for the Citizens. De Bruyne has double digit fantasy output in his four last matches and he’s been excellent despite not consistently scoring goals or directing assists. KDB is a safe target with tremendous upside that can prove to be instrumental for the winning team in Wednesday’s big GPP.
Gylfi Sigurdsson, Swansea $5,700 – Sigurdsson is virtually a must-play in this slate given his role on his team, his opponent and more importantly, his price tag. His play in recent weeks and the recent sale of Jonjo Shelvey gives Sigurdsson the green light to return back to the crossing, shooting maestro in the Swansea midfield. With a goal in his last match he might be highly owned, but you won’t be able to afford fading him given the savings he allows if you do choose to roster him.
Xherdan Shaqiri, Stoke $5,600 – Shaqiri finally seems to have found his form for The Potters as he had two goals against Everton and followed it up by a 7 cross performance against West Brom. This week facing a Norwich side that should allow goals and crosses puts Shaqiri as well as his midfield teammate Marko Arnautovic (slotted as forward on DK) both in play.
Additional Targets for Midfield – Lots of unknown regarding rest and formation, however I would strongly consider targeting the following teams for crosses and the most shots: Chelsea (Oscar if healthy), Manchester City (Silva and Navas if they get the start), Southampton (whoever starts in an attacking midfield role from Mane, Tadic, Ward-Prowse and Steven Davis should be worth targeting on your squads). I also like Tottenham midfield whether it is Eriksen, Dele Alli or Son Heung-Min. Eriksen is my favorite target of that trio.
Fades: I’m probably staying away from Leicester as Vardy is banged up and may not start. If he doesn’t start that puts the pressure on Mahrez and in an away game to Tottenham it is very difficult to trust that he won’t absorb all the defensive pressure and be rendered useless fantasy wise. I would consider Barkley a cash play on most days, but for this slate he’s solely a GPP target. Liverpool and Arsenal is a tough match to pin-point where the production is coming from, Ozil makes a good play as does Milner, but mostly I may avoid this game for the midfield.
Forwards
Sergio Aguero, Manchester City $8,400 – If he plays, he’s a threat to score. City are facing an Everton squad that has routinely found itself in the middle of shootouts and if this matchup does end up being a goal-fest, then look for Aguero to be right in the middle of it all. He’s likely the best striker in play today, but the concern with him is injury as he may not finish the game if he gets a knock.
Diego Costa, Chelsea $6,500 – He’s got a red Q next to his name on DK, but don’t let that deter you. Guus Hiddink has already confirmed that Costa is available and ready to play. Costa looked very active in the last match and along with Willian were the two best players on the Chelsea squad. Look for Costa to continue his foray through the defenders and to try to add some more goals to his resume.
Bojan, Stoke $4,300 – Bojan is starting for Stoke and this is a matchup where Stoke may get a few shots putting Bojan in a great spot. He’s priced much too cheap for a starting striker and may prove to be some salary relief.
Dieumerci Mbokani, Norwich $3,200 – Similar to Bojan, but a worse spot so he’s strictly for GPPs and even then may disappoint a lot of his owners. However, if he manages a goal then he’s already delivered on that upside. Norwich are a team that has managed a goal in six of their last ten matches. They tied 1-1 in the reverse fixture with Stoke and Mbokani has a goal in his last two matches and could double that this game.
Additional Forwards – Romelu Lukaku is a beast in front of goal with four goals from his last six shots on target. Everton are involved in plenty of shootouts, but Lukaku is very expensive. He will be highly owned in cash if you can find the savings, might be worth the fade in GPPs especially if City manage to shut down Everton.
Olivier Giroud is another great option as he’s helped propel Arsenal to the top of the table. He’s the third most expensive forward and the matchup isn’t an easy one away to Liverpool. You may also pivot to Harry Kane who scored off the bench against Leicester in their cup match over the weekend off penalties, so you know that Kane has the upside. The other option is to pivot to either Pelle (who may still be out of form because he’s returning from injury) or to Ighalo who is in a bad matchup. Both have multi-goal upside, but are unlikely to deliver on it.
Swansea may be back in form, which puts Andre Ayew in focus as a cheap option who may be worth considering. I’ll have at least one of my teams with Ayew in it as Swansea look to take advantage of a weak Sunderland squad.