EPL DFS Targets: Wednesday, March 2nd
We have another day of soccer ahead of us, but first let’s recap yesterday’s plays and see where we can learn to improve.
I believe its important to go back and reflect on your mistakes as a writer who’s giving out advice; it helps notify the readers that mistakes can be made. But at the same time, it is very important to not be too results oriented and know that a decision was a good one at the time, but just didn’t pan out well.
Yesterday’s slate was terrible for me as I played a handful of 50/50s and just two tournament lineups and none of them hit on anything close to returning any cash. But these days happen when you play a sport that is goal dependent like soccer and manage to miss a key play or two. We’ll get to that later.
I’ll go through a few of the plays I highlighted yesterday and do a quick recap. At goalkeeper I missed the potential of Artur Boruc of Bournemouth by neglecting to consider an opponent of Southampton on the road and instead relied on Kasper Schmeichel as my main keeper. Schmeichel finished with -2 points after failing to stop either of the shots on target he faced, he wasn’t a bad selection, as Leicester weren’t expected to drop points in this one, but they did and thus his final fantasy result suffered. My defender selections were okay, I didn’t recommend DeAndre Yedlin because he wasn’t an obvious start in my eyes, but once he was starting I had my eye on him but chose to go elsewhere. My other two selections were Martin Kelly and Bryan Oviedo; both started and both put up decent respectable numbers. For midfielders, my selections of Albrighton, Khazri, and Ross Barkley were decent but not spectacular, Albrighton did the best of the bunch as Leicester fell behind early and he whipped in 10 crosses in the first half to finish with 14 total crosses and 15 total points. Cabaye underperformed and was subbed off at the 74th minute as a result. At forward Connor Wickham scored a brace and Lukaku scored a goal as well.
My misses were basically Aaron Lennon and Max Gradel. I had never been impressed with Gradel as a player and thus overlooked him and the potential that Bournemouth had in this game. Moreover, I thought that the corner duty would go to Ritchie and didn’t consider team history without Stanislas to see who took the corner kicks. This is where a bit extra research could have come in handy. As for Lennon, I saw he was starting and considered him, but due to lack of time and because I liked my team already, I decided to keep him out and went with Barkley instead and that made all the difference as Lennon scored a goal, while his opposite winger Kevin Mirallas assisted twice leaving Barkley with nothing to show for the day.
Now let’s get to the day at hand, We have five games that are sure to be very interesting, lots of stars to go with today, so we will try to find the value.
Goalkeepers
Jack Butland, Stoke City $4,000 – Will the goalkeeper facing second worst road team in the league please stand up. Butland stands out among the rest of the keepers this slate as his opponent have just been terrible at getting points away from home. With just 7 total points on the season, Newcastle aren’t a team to fear away from home, thus making Butland a good option for the win and clean sheet bonus. He won’t face a ton of shots on target to get some saves, but this week I think the majority of the teams that will be facing shots will likely let a bunch of them in. Of the expensive options, I like Butland the most as the other teams all have their warts.
Heurelho Gomes, Watford $3,400 – The masses will be heavy on Rashford after he scored two goals last weekend for Manchester United, and that’s fine. He’s a fine young player that may catapult this performance into a long career at Old Trafford. But I don’t expect him to continue to be a dominant force this early. I expect that Watford will pack it in defensively and hope to escape from Manchester with a point. Meaning that Gomes will face plenty of shots and plenty of opportunities to get saves. I expect that the young forward opposite him will not convert a lot of his chances thus increases Gomes’ ceiling, and at his cheap depressed price making him a great play.
Defenders
Kieran Trippier, Tottenham $3,800 – He’s a great play who should be priced near the top of the list but is actually the 12th highester priced defender on the slate. Trippier is taking the crosses for the Spurs and assisting in the attack. He sat the Sunday match so he’s a near certainty to start this one and should be instrumental as Tottenham take on West Ham on the road.
Phil Bardsley, Stoke $2,100 – A lot of Stoke love this week, but this is for good reason as they have one of the better matchups on the board, and their prices are real depressed. Bardsley isn’t the regular starter at the full back for Stoke, but he did well stepping in for Glen Johnson and will continue that role this week. Expect high ownership and above average fantasy points at a low price.
Guillermo Varela, Manchester United $2,800 – He’s predictably going to start at the full back position once again for the Red Devils in their home match to Watford. And as mentioned in the blurb for Gomes earlier, United are going to be attacking the entire way with Varela carrying some upside with crosses and shots.
Midfielders
Erik Lamela, Tottenham $5,600 – If he gets the start he’s as good an option as anyone on this team. He has been involved in the scoring as well as sending in crosses and corners in recent weeks. I like Christian Eriksen more than him, but Eriksen comes with a $7,900 price tag, so if you want value, go with Lamela, but know that Eriksen could go off and score a goal or two since he is on free kicks and is exceptionally good at taking them.
Xherdan Shaqiri, Stoke $5,700 – He had 18 crosses last game against Aston Villa. These types of games don’t happen very often and I don’t expect a repeat against Newcastle on Wednesday. However, Newcastle on the season have allowed more crosses than Villa, and with this being another home game I expect the Potters to continue their attacking ways looking to take advantage of another easy fixture to remain in the top 10 in the table. Shaqiri is trending upwards in terms of his involvement and crossing, while his price hasn’t caught up with the performance yet. Take him on your teams and let others make the mistake of fading him.
David Silva, Manchester City $6,000 – I was going to avoid the entirety of the City-Liverpool rematch, but I believe there is some value to be had here as well as a contrarian play or two. One of my favorite such plays is David Silva who is (finally) looking like the player we thought he would look like after returning from injury a few weeks ago. If you look at the box score you’ll see that he scored a goal against Dynamo Kiev to guarantee himself 19 points in the UCL contest a week ago. What you didn’t see is the match against this same Liverpool team he managed 3 shots, 7 crosses, 3 tackles, an interception and had 83 total touches (the most of anybody on the City squad). These numbers were boosted by an extra 20 minutes of playing time, but the point stands, Silva is more involved in the City attack and is expected to continue that trend going forward.
Moussa Sissoko, Newcastle $3,900 – Sissoko will go overlooked with Townsend having scored a goal last match. But if you look at their numbers over the last three matches they are near identical and I believe that given the levels of ownership you might be better off picking Sissoko over Townsend this week if you want a player from Newcastle in a GPP.
Forwards
Alexis Sanchez, Arsenal $8,200 – Arsenal are coming off a bad loss at Manchester United will be eager for revenge. Sanchez and Giroud both share in the biggest droughts in the premier league when it comes to goal scoring off shots taken. I expect that Sanchez will be ready to go against a Swansea side that will suffer the consequences of being at the wrong place at the right time. Sanchez is my pick for an expensive forward on this slate, but if you want to go cheaper, I don’t begrudge you going with Olivier Giroud or stepping up in price and going with Harry Kane. All are in excellent spots this week.
Marko Arnautovic, Stoke $5,000 – Yes, he scored twice against Aston Villa, and yes this looks like chasing. But it’s not. His underlying stats showed that he’s more involved in the offense when his team is in control of the match, and with a matchup against Newcastle, I expect that Stoke will be in control of this matchup from the beginning and will likely score an early goal (if they don’t this only elevates the performance of Arnautovic and Shaqiri making them even better plays). His price is still much too cheap, put him in your rosters and let others make the mistake of fading him.