EPL Game by Game Breakdown: Matchday 8
We are back with another week of Premier League action.
It feels like the international break came at an inopportune time, right as DFS soccer was gearing up. But alas, we are back today with a breakdown of each game to help us navigate through a shorter than normal six-game slate Saturday morning.
There have been several players that were injured during the break, so keep an eye out for starting lineups Saturday morning. Also, with the extensive travel that some players had to undergo, some players might not end up starting, but they could see some action off the bench.
Arsenal vs Hull City
Arsenal enter this game with severe injury concerns. Over the international break they were dealt another blow, as Mesut Ozil was ruled out for several months. Arsenal’s defense hasn’t held a clean sheet in almost a month and they are coming off a loss to London rivals Chelsea. Hull enter this match as huge underdogs, but they have a lot going for them that we can love heading into this matchup with Arsenal. Hull have scored goals in their last eight matches and have scored at least two goals in six of those games.
Goalkeepers:
Wojciech Szczesny – Arsenal – Arsenal’s keeper hasn’t been a consistent producer of fantasy points so far this season. He has a string of fantasy performances that run from a low of -2 points to a high of 14 points in the last six gamedays. This game is different though, as he is expected to notch the win. The books say that Arsenal has an excellent chance of winning this game while Hull City is the clear unerdog. Szczesny is one of the favorites on the day to get the W, however I don’t expect him to get a clean sheet, as Hull have shown the ability to score goals this season. Given his price at $4,900, I’d stay away and go look elsewhere for my goalkeeper.
Clean Sheet Index = 6
Steve Harper – Hull City – Hull’s keeper is coming off a 2-0 win against Crystal Palace last time out. He is filling in for full time starter Allan McGregor. Last week, Harper kept those who rostered him happy, as he managed 12 fantasy points against a much weaker side, and he’ll look to continue that this week. That said, Arsenal are a much more talented team than Crystal Palace, and for Harper to pay off his increase price tag ($3,500) he’ll have to rack up the saves and not concede too many goals. I would not count on him in a cash game.
Clean Sheet Index = 3
Key Players To Target
Danny Welbeck – Arsenal – Depending on Arsenal’s formation for this game, if they go with 4-1-4-1 then you can expect Welbeck to be the lone striker up top, and he’ll be assisted by the wings Oxlade-Chamberlain and Sanchez. Arsenal take an inordinate amount of their shots from outside of the penalty box; 54 out of 101 total shots taken, with Welbeck taking approximately 14 shots in four games. Expect Welbeck to take some shots this week to try to beat out the Hull City defense. Welbeck is the third-highest priced forward this week at $9,600, and in my opinion he is very likely to score a goal if Arsenal get a chance.
Others To Target: Alexis Sanchez, Jack Wilshere, Santi Cazorla, Kieran Gibbs
Nikica Jelavic – Jelavic is coming off a match in which he scored a goal for against Crystal Palace. Moreover, he has three goals in the last five games. Plenty of people will shy away from using any Hull players and might even load up on some Arsenal defenders. The key here is to realize that with all the injuries, Hull will be looking to capitalize on this situation and try to escape with a draw against Arsenal. If they do manage to score, look for Jelavic to be the man who hits the mark.
Others To Target: Andrew Robertson, Ahmed El Mohamady, Tom Huddlestone
Southampton vs Sunderland
This game pits two teams that are very similar. Southampton is currently in third place in the Premier League table and will look for a positive result against visiting Sunderland. Expect a very defensive effort, as both teams will look to hold for the draw. This game does scream 0-0 or 1-0 for either side. Therefore, the focus on here should be on the defenders.
Goalkeepers:
Fraser Forster – Southampton – Forster is coming into this game with the lowest price he’s had since DFS started Premier League games on DraftKings. The last time out Forster allowed one goal at Tottenham and only recorded two saves. The team itself did not manage to score any goals, leaving Forster to suffer the defeat. I believe that Southampton will return to their winning ways when hosting an underperforming Sunderland team, and Forster might even be in line for the clean sheet. He is likely my cash game keeper.
Clean Sheet Index = 7
Vito Mannone – Sunderland – Mannone is in a decent spot, though it is not as good as Forster, as Sunderland are on the road. Mannone enters this game seeing his price drop from $4,500 to $3,500. If Sunderland can manage to hold on for a tie here as well as the clean sheet bonus, Mannone can prove to be one of the best value goalkeepers this weekend.
Clean Sheet Index = 6
Key Players To Target:
Graziano Pelle – Southampton – Coming off a bad game against Tottenham where Pelle only managed a single shot, there was doubt whether Pelle would end up suiting up for the Italian national team in their European Qualifiers. Pelle ended up playing the second of two matches and was able to secure the game-winning goal against a weak Malta side. Couple that with his recent performances prior to the Tottenham game and it is safe to say that Pelle is still on form. Even though this game might turn into a defensive battle, Pelle might end up getting a few shots on target, as he tries to help his team to a victory to wipe the taste of defeat from Southampton’s mouth.
Others To Target – Dusan Tadic, Sadio Mane, Ryan Bertrand
Connor Wickham – The young Englishman has been getting shots and he has been getting playing time, and now, finally, he’s putting the ball in the back of the net. Wickham scored and assisted last time out for Sunderland, and may in fact be their best striker. While last time out Fletcher was able to have the better outing, I suspect Wickham has the better chance to convert the playing time into fantasy points. There aren’t many defenders on Sunderland that attack, leaving the options fantasy-wise rather thin.
Of note is Jozy Altidore. If he starts, he’s coming off a game where he was able to score for the United States, and would make a decent GPP play.
Others To Target – Steven Fletcher, Patrick van Aanholt, Sebastian Larsson
Everton vs Aston Villa
Everton come into this game with a very disappointing start to the season so far. They have only one win, and have collected only a single point at home. Tim Howard has not looked like the Tim Howard that set a record for the number of saves for the USA in the World Cup. Moreover, he gets to face fellow American Brad Guzan, who will man the net for Villa. Historically, these two sides have scored a lot of goals when they meet, especially at Merseyside (Everton’s home stadium). I will give the edge to Everton, as they need this win more than ever and Villa are currently on a three game skid.
Goalkeepers:
Tim Howard and Brad Guzan – Both Americans are manning the goal and they should both be GPP plays only. The odds for this game having more than 2.5 goals are currently set at 1.80, which highly favors a high-scoring match. The only hope is that Howard can replicate some American glory and record a bunch of saves to offset any goals he might concede. However, that is a strategy that may not always pay off and is very risky in cash games. Overall, I’m staying away from the goalkeepers in this matchup for my cash games.
Clean Sheet Index = 4
Key Players To Target:
Leighton Baines – Everton – Everybody’s favourite defender is Leighton Baines. Baines can do it all, since with a goal or an assist in four out of the last five games he’s played, he is probably the most trustworthy defender you can roster. Unlike Howard, Baines doesn’t come with any inherent risk associated with Everton’s troubles defensively. He does however have the ability to streak up the left side and provide to his attackers. Baines is also the main free kick taker for his side, which could provide him with more opportunities for assists or goals.
Others To Target – Steven Naismith, Romelu Lukaku, Aiden McGeady
Christian Benteke – Aston Villa – He came off the bench last time out for Villa and is working himself back into shape, but Betenke is Villa’s best hope in fixing what is ailing them. They have failed to score in the last three matchups, and playing Everton seems like the perfect antidote to finding the back of the net. Betenke has the skill, and with the potential loss of Fabian Delph to shoulder surgery, Betenke could find himself starting in this match. Keep an eye out for the starting lineups Saturday morning, as usual.
Others To Target – Ashley Westwood, Charles N’Zogbia
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea
Despite playing at home, CP is in a very tough spot this week. They are facing a Chelsea team that has been dominant so far in this EPL campaign. Chelsea is not without their concerns though, as Diego Costa, Andre Schurrle, Ramires, and Mikel are all doubtful for the game Saturday. Of those, I suspect we won’t find out until the morning of the game who is in the match and who isn’t. That said, this should be an easy away game for Chelsea, despite the fact that they lost here last year. This Chelsea team is far and away better than they were last year.
Goalkeepers:
Thibaut Courtois – Chelsea – The Chelsea keeper had to leave the last time out due to a concussion after a collision during the Arsenal game. However, in the last two weeks he was fit to man the goal for Belgium, and thus any lingering concerns from his concussion are gone. His price has dropped slightly to $4,600. He is the third-most expensive keeper on the day, and should pay off with the win and potentially a clean sheet. Palace may be at home, but the oddsmakers don’t fancy them doing much damage to a superior Chelsea side.
Clean Sheet Index = 8
Julian Speroni – Crystal Palace – Crystal Palace are one of the bigger underdogs on the weekend and Chelsea are firing on all cylinders. Even if they are missing Costa up front, Loic Remy is more than capable of causing damage. Stay away from Speroni, since Chelsea are almost certain to score a goal or two.
Clean Sheet Index = 2
Key Players To Target:
Eden Hazard – Chelsea – Hazard is probably a GPP pick more than a cash game play. My cash game play is Cesc Fabregas. Fabregas provides more consistent outputs week in and week out. He will consistently get about double-digit points on DraftKings and support your team from the midfield. He also has potential to score more if the team notches more assists. However, Hazard is my GPP pick because he is cheaper and still has the potential to score as well as assist. Hazard is the cog that runs the Chelsea offense and provides them the talent that allows them to break down the opposing defenses. Hazard is also the set piece taker for Chelsea, and with Chelsea facing Crystal Palace, the team that commits the most fouls per game (15/game), the odds of a penalty kick or even just a free kick right outside the box are high.
Others To Target: Cesc Fabregas, Branislav Ivanovic, Diego Costa (If he starts, if not then Remy)
Yannick Bolasie – Crystal Palace – It’s hard to roster any Crystal Palace players this weekend against a Chelsea team that should dominate possession. However, if CP would cause any ruckus, it would come from a counter attack. On that front, Bolasie has been their best counter attack player all season, as he leads the team in counter attack shots. However, given the line on this game, this is a GPP option at best.
Others To Target: Frazier Campbell, Jason Puncheon
Burnley vs West Ham United
Burnley finally scored last time out, but it was only their second and third goals of the season. They’ll look to continue that this time out against a WHU side that is sitting towards the top of the table. The oddsmakers are as confused as I am on this game, as the likelihood of a draw is higher than the likelihood of a win for either side. But with Burnley being at home, they get a slight edge. I won’t have many players from either team in any of my cash games, but might take a gander on some GPP options
Goalkeepers:
Tom Heaton and Adrian – Both these keepers are cheap, and both could conceivably get the clean sheet, or they could concede more than one goal. It’s boom or bust, as neither will see many targets and thus the upside of a lot of saves is lost. Adrian is my favorite if I had to choose, as he’s shown more talent than Heaton. Truth be told though, I wouldn’t take either keeper and I’d feel comfortable.
Clean Sheet Index = 4
Key Players To Target:
Kieran Trippier – Burnley – He’s a full back that ventures up the right flank and provides crosses into the box. Last time out he had 11 crosses. He has the potential, and at home he could decide to remain aggressive. He did injure his ankle before the international break, so keep a look out for the starting XI prior to lineup lock Saturday.
Others To Target: Lukas Jutkiewicz
Diafra Sakho – West Ham United – Sakho is in great form right now, as he’s scored in each of his last three games played for the club. Moreover, if he doesn’t get his shots in, he’s still averaging 2.4 crosses a game, which can lead to assists, which are great bonuses for forwards.
Others To Target: Stewart Downing, Enner Valencia, Aaron Cresswell
Newcastle United vs Leicester City
Newcastle are still in a rut. Their manager is facing lots of pressure to produce results and the team hasn’t won a game yet this season. Leicester are disappointed in their late draw with Burnley last time out, but they are confident in their abilities and will look to get at least an away point against a struggling Newcastle team.
Goalkeepers
Neither goalkeeper for these teams is remarkable. Krul and Schmeichel are both slightly underperforming recently. Both teams are expected to score more than one goal, and I would not be surprised at a 2-2 draw this week. Stay away from both keepers and focus on the offenses of these two teams for some fantasy goodness.
Clean Sheet Index = 3
Key Players To Target:
Papiss Demba Cisse – Newcastle – He scored twice last time out and so far this season has scored four goals in three games, giving him the highest goal per minute output on the season. Cisse is on great form, and facing a Leicester team that has allowed seven goals in their last three games. Cisse might be my highest certainty to score this week. His price is a bit high though, but he carries the hopes of Newcastle on his shoulders. I suspect he will come through.
Others To Target: Remy Cabella, Daryl Janmaat, Paul Dummett
Riyadh Mahrez – Leicester – One of the top performers from the last game day will see an opportunity to continue his dominant run into the weekend. He had a couple of good games for his home nation, as he confirmed Algeria’s place in the African Cup of Nations (ACN). Mahrez scored once, and I suspect that he will be heavily involved in an attack that should feature Leonardo Ulloa and Jamie Vardy
Others To Target: Leonardo Ulloa, Jamie Vardy, Daniel Drinkwater, Ritchie de Laet