EPL Gameweek 38: Season Finale
It’s here. The final week of the season and we have a great set of matches for us to analyze for this final Sunday of the 2015-16 EPL season. So what do we know heading into the final week? We know a lot, we know that DraftKings has some really big tournaments. I am personally excited because I’m in Florida right now with the family and I can again play some DFS games this weekend. This week will be tough to analyze since not every team will have motivation to send out their strongest performances, and some players will have already checkout as the season draws to a close. We’ve already determined our champion and our relegated three. The only questions waiting to be answered are which teams will represent England in the Champions League and the Europa League next season. And beyond that, some players are already shifting their focus to the Euros or the Copa Centenario this summer. This is why its important to be careful with your lineups and try to find the players that are still playing for something big.
With some big tournaments this weekend it’s going to be important to be able to differentiate your teams from the crowds since the majority will flock to the same teams that have the most to play for. I’ll divide this article into multiple parts breaking down the teams that are playing Sunday (all of them) into groups that try to summarize best what to expect from each team regarding their level of effort and their motivation for the games on Sunday.
The Champions vs The Ex-Champions
Leicester City have locked up their title and the Cinderella story has been completed. If you’re one of the optimistic few who booked your ticket at 5000:1 odds back in August then you already know everything there is to know about this Leicester team. They are playing Chelsea this week, I expect that there will not be a lot of ownership in this game and both these teams have nothing to play for. But the Blues and the Foxes have an intertwined history this season. Chelsea are abdicating their throne to Leicester, and it was this Chelsea team that afforded Leicester the Title clenching points with their draw with Tottenham.
So will these teams even trot out their top players? I think so. Guus Hiddink is ready to vacate his spot after this match is over, and a number of other players are preparing for a busy international cup summer. Specifically, for Chelsea I’d look at Willian ($6,800) and Eden Hazard ($5,600). I expect that both goalkeepers are in play here as they’ll both face some shots on target, but that is far from a guaranteed option.
On the other side of the matchup, we have the newly crowned champs in Leicester. As usual this team has some very specific players to target. Christian Fuchs ($4,700), Marc Albrighton ($6,200), Daniel Drinkwater ($3,300), N’Golo Kante ($3,900), Riyadh Mahrez ($7,100) and Jamie Vardy ($7,200). For my teams I would focus on Vardy and Albrighton with a look at Mahrez and Drinkwater for tournaments if I build multiple teams.
The Relegated Three.
So what do we make of the three teams that have already been relegated?
Aston Villa have had their fate determined for a long time now as they’ve had a truly miserable season. The fans have already accepted the fate and a road match against Arsenal doesn’t bode well for the Villans. In fact, I would avoid all Aston Villa players and let them get relegated in peace.
For this matchup I actually would highly recommend stacking Arsenal who can cement themselves in 2nd place with a win here and a loss by Tottenham. For Arsenal Giroud ($5,900) would be my top target if he gets the start and then adding options like Alexis Sanchez ($7,500) and Alex Iwobi ($4,800) would be worth the salary. Petr Cech is the priciest goalkeeper at $4,500 and he comes with the biggest odds to win. I expect a clean sheet and a win but very few shots on target from the opponent and thus no real save opportunities.
The second relegated team to consider is Norwich after just a single season the top flight. They actually have a decent matchup with a reeling Everton squad that just fired their coach before the last match. In their last six matches Everton have four losses, a win and a draw. In that timeframe they have allowed a total of 14 goals and scored just 5. Of course a matchup with Norwich will ultimately lead people to think this will be a low scoring match despite the defensive woes of Everton in recent weeks. But discounting this match might be a mistake. Norwich are eager to show to their fans that they will try next season to make it back to the premier league and Everton now have a new interim coach and the players will want to showcase their skills. This will be a match that is underowned and targeting players from both sides might be a good move. This might be a spot to get some of the cheaper options, Arouna Kone ($3,600), Nathan Redmond ($4,200) and Dieumerci Mbokani ($3,800), along with Ross Barkley ($5,500) and if you feel like taking a flyer on Romelu Lukaku ($6,200) then I won’t fault you however, he hasn’t been able to convert shots into goals in recent weeks, still, he would make for a spectacular GPP play since his inability to score goals has been well publicized.
The final match involving a relegated team this week is Newcastle playing host to Tottenham. The Spurs missed out on the Premier League title after mounting an incredible challenge to Leicester. They have already been vocal about not wanting to finish below 2nd place and are now in danger of doing just that if they fail to at least get a single point. Newcastle on the other hand are already relegated and the players are going to want to give their fans one last permier league worthy showing. I expect this will be a match with plenty of crosses and plenty of shots. Both these teams love to move the ball back and forth and I think there will be some fantasy goodness in this one. For Tottenham, I would target Christian Eriksen ($7,000), Harry Kane ($7,700), and Erik Lamela ($6,000), while if you want to go for value, you can go after some Newcastle players such as Gregory Wijnaldum ($4,300), Aleksandar Mitrovic ($4,500) or even the goalkeeper (if you’re feeling frisky) Karl Darlow ($3,300).
Fighting for Europe
The Champions League afford England four teams (three straight to the group stage and one spot to the qualifying stage) If Liverpool win the Europa League, they will also get entry into the Champions League leaving England with five teams. Right now, Leicester, Arsenal and Tottenham are guaranteed spots in Europe’s elite competition. With the final guaranteed spot a battle between Manchester City, Manchester United and to a lesser extent, West Ham. Let’s examine these three teams with their matches.
Manchester City at Swansea – Swansea have survived relegation and are now sitting in 11th place in the table. Which is a miraculous spot considering there was danger just a few weeks ago. They can now rest assured that they have another season in the Premier League and might not show their best display on Sunday. Manchester City on the other hand have a lot to play for. Next season they want to play in the Champions League since they’ll have their new manager Pep Guardiola, so winning this matchup against Swansea or at least securing a tie would be worth it considering the stakes. For Manchester City, I believe that targeting Aguero will be key as well as midfielders such as Kevin De Bruyne and Jesus Navas as Navas might be cheap enough to afford you more players.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth – When Bournemouth visit Old Trafford, they’ll come in with zero expectations and no pressure to achieve a result as these players have guaranteed their tiny club another season in the Premier League. Manchester United however is facing a crisis of identity of sorts as failure to reach the Champions League would mark another strike against Louis Van Gaal’s record and might make it easy for the board to sack him and push for hiring The Special One in his place (That special one being Jose Mourinho of course). So do the players push for their manager and for the chance to play in the champions league again next season? Possibly. However, I would be wary of rostering any United players given their penchant for playing defensive possession football and thus limiting their fantasy potential. I would recommend staying away from this game considering the low expectations and the dearth of other options.
West Ham at Stoke – This should be a fun match with lots of back and forth action. I like Dimitri Payet ($8,100) and Xherdan Shaqiri ($5,800) to play well here. Both these players have high potential, though Shaqiri has much lower expectations and Payet will be very popular. I expect to see multiple goals in this match from both teams and for the strikers to take plenty of shots. This means that Sakho ($4,100) and Andy Carroll ($5,300) for West Ham, and Bojan or Arnautovic for Stoke would also be in play. This is also a spot to target the full backs for both teams depending on who gets the start as well as the price tag of those starters.
A Bonus Europe consideration is Southampton versus Crystal Palace. If both West Ham and Manchester United lose their respective matches, and Southampton finds themselves winners against Crystal Palace, then they book themselves a trip to the Europa League. For this, I expect that Southampton will push for a win against Palace. This makes players such as Dusan Tadic and Graziano Pelle top targets for a Southampton squad. If Steven Davis gets the start I would put him on one team as well given that his price tag is real cheap. And if James Ward-Prowse gets a start he’s also a good target for your teams since he might be on corner kick duty.
Other Places to Look
Liverpool are playing in the Europa League final. Their entire season will rest on that matchup and they’ll likely be resting the majority of their players for that final against Sevilla. This means that they’ll be trodding out some youngsters who might provide us with some great value play opportunities tomorrow while at the same time increasing the value of West Brom players going against them. Of the top Liverpool players I would consider looking at, Brannagan, Christian Benteke, Jordan Ibe and Shayi Ojo. Add to that the full backs, and the goalkeeper are possible options. These players will all be looking to prove themselves in what could be a high intensity game for the youngsters.
On the opposite end, targeting some West Brom players such as Craig Dawson, James McClean, and Solomon Rondon would be worth a shot considering the opposition. Of those, Dawson is the player I like the most.
That should cover most of these matches (at least the ones that are worth considering). Good luck on this final day of the season and make sure to read this summer as we’ll probably be getting some Euro and Copa America DFS along with the ongoing MLS games.