EPL Grind Down: Gameweek 1

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2016-08-19 20:35:57

The 2016-17 EPL season starts this weekend, and with the new season we have some exciting times ahead of us! Over the next few weeks look for some exciting additions to our RotoGrinders coverage of EPL soccer and starting with this week, I’m proud to debut the first ever EPL Grind Down.

For this first Grind Down, I’m going to break down the general team information. I’ll highlight changes the team has completed over the summer and while form is normally important. I’ll put less emphasis on their summer/pre-season fixtures as those don’t always tell the whole story.

The Grind Down will give you an in depth analysis into the week’s EPL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit and which matchups to take advantage of. And while matchups are a huge factor in Daily Fantasy Soccer, there are plenty of other factors to consider, such as team form, formation, salaries and home/away.

This analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Goals aren’t always easy to predict, but following the trends and making the right choices can lead you to success and will win you money over time.

Burnley vs Swansea City

Burnley						Swansea City
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				2.48						3.23
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	SoT A/Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	SoT A/Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
						11.61	3.55	0.00	0.00	19.11	0.00

Burnley Breakdown

Newly promoted Burnley won the Championship last season with a dominant offensive display with 72 goals which tied them for first, while they allowed just 35 goals which ranked them second in all of the championship. Of course, you don’t always expect these statistics to transfer, but the information to take away from their form last season is that they are a solid squad. They won the games they were supposed to win (15-6-2 at home with 12 clean sheets) and did very well on the road. Overall, they ended the season on a 23 match unbeaten run.

Their Manager, Sean Dych, brings the team back into the Premier League after getting relegated after just a single season where they finished 19th and scored in just 28 games. They are a counter attack style team that relies on Gray’s pace and the skills in the air of Sam Vokes. Their default formation is a 4-4-2 which provides the necessary balance in both attack and defense. The team didn’t rely on holding possession last season and were in the bottom five in shots on target with just 11.9 per match.

Burnley Top Plays

Their talisman, Andre Gray (Forward, $7,600), has a remarkable story. As recently as the 2013-14 season he was playing in fifth level division in the Conference National league. He managed 23 goals last season in just 41 matches with Burnley. He’s the fourth most expensive forward in the first week’s matchup and with Burnley playing at home against a weakened Swansea side, I expect his ownership to be very high. He has 9 goals scored in the pre-season fixtures. If they were going against any other team, I would be a bit more cautious, but with Swansea as the opponent, I see more reward for not fading Gray, than risk for avoiding him.

Burnley Secondary Plays

David Jones, $3,400 – He’s the top set piece taker and corner kick taker for a Burnley squad that will rely on counter attacks and fast movement of the ball. He is a reluctant attacking player, but his cheap price and his role as the chief corner kick taker gives him extreme value in the DraftKings format. He’s worth considering on your squads as you build your lineups and look for some cheap midfielders to allow you to take shots on some of the more noteworthy names.

Sam Vokes, $7,000 – The reason David Jones’ corners are so important is because of Sam Vokes and his aerial abilities. Vokes won a total of 329 headers last season. And given the propensity of Premier League football to spread the play out to the wings, and the number of teams that allow wing play, I expect that Vokes will find some success this season. For this matchup, taking Vokes would be a contrarian play that could prove useful, but it might back fire if he doesn’t score especially considering his relatively high price tag. He’s a tournament only target.

Tom Heaton, $4,900 – Goalkeepers are tough to pinpoint this week, I like to target cheaper keepers that will face a lot of action, and while I don’t expect Swansea to create a lot of shots on target, I do believe that Burnley will play the counter-attack game which puts the pressure on the defense and the keeper to perform. This could lead to a few saves for Heaton, and given the lack of quality in the opponent, you don’t expect him to concede many (if any) goals.

Swansea City Breakdown

Swansea have had a bit of a tumultuous summer, out went Bafetimbi Gomis, Andre Ayew, Alberto Paloschi and Ashley Williams. They’ve re-upped Gylfi Sigurdsson and managed to sign Fernando Llorente, and are on the verge of adding Borja Baston in the next few days. All in all, I don’t see much improvement in this Swansea side. The selling of Ayew to West Ham, Williams to Everton and Gomis to Marseille, allow the club to spend elsewhere, but there are too many holes that I put Swansea as an early season favorite to fight the relegation battle. This teal will struggle to score goals, and will rely on Gylfi Sigurdsson to feed an aging Llorente (4 goals, 3 assists in 23 La Liga appearances), and an unproven Borja (at least in the EPL).

Swansea City Top Plays

None

Swansea City Secondary Plays

Gylfi Sigurdsson, $8,900 – Most of the players that I mentioned above aren’t in the player pool yet, and the only impact player on this team that is available to select is Sigurdsson. Siggy is a good target as he takes crosses and corner kicks along with the likely penalty kick taker for the Swans. However, I think Swansea will struggle in this match without an obvious identity and it may take them a few matches to figure things out.

Jefferson Montero, $4,000 – This is play that depends heavily on whether or not he gets the start. Montero was not a regular starter last season as he was apt to fade defensively and that cost him some playing time. However, he’s a player with tremendous pace and can effectively jump start an offense and make something out of nothing. He’s worth a look if you want to differentiate with a cheaper midfield option.

Crystal Palace vs West Brom

Crystal Palace						West Brom
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				2.01						4.51
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	SoT A/Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	SoT A/Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
12.34	3.89	0.00	0.00	25.50	0.00	10.24	2.68	0.00	0.00	22.24	0.00

Crystal Palace Breakdown

Palace is in the middle of some wheeling and dealing to start the season. They are in talks at the time of this writing in signing Benteke from Liverpool and sending Bolasie to Everton. The team also added Andros Townsend this summer from relegated Newcastle, and seem to return a strong midfield once again. They still lack fire power up top, and that can be somewhat relieved by the signing of Benteke. Last season this team started off very solid, with five wins in the first eight matches. They followed it up however with just six wins in the remaining thirty. They struggled to score, and unless they get Benteke will be even worse this year. Their defense was bottom five in the league depending on the metric used, and overall, they lacked that thing that made teams fear their matchup.

Crystal Palace Top Plays

So are there any elite plays here? Andros Townsend comes to mind. If he gets the start and reprises the role he played in Newcastle to close out the season then he’s a great play. Priced at $6,700, you’ll have to choose between him and several other intriguing players at that price point, but Townsend can prove worthy. He’s had moments last season with double digit crosses and with goals and assists.

Crystal Palace Secondary Plays

Yohan Cabaye, Midfield, $7,400 He plays a bit of a defensive midfielder, but his skills are actually very effective in the DraftKings scoring. He provides plenty of tackles and interceptions. He’s also on corners along with Jason Puncheon, so he should be a reliable source of points. His ability to score goals is minimal, so he doesn’t have the high upside that you would look for in that price range. Which is why I wouldn’t recommend him as a GPP play, but could make a solid cash play.

Steve Mandanda, Goalkeeper $5,100 – West Brom are not a strong offensive squad. Last season they were dead last in shots on target, shot accuracy and goal conversion. They were also bottom 4 in total shots, and shots inside the box. Mandanda won’t face many shots, and the ones he will face will likely be from corners (more on that in a bit). I don’t expect him to be challenged much, but he’s a keeper in a game that could end in a goalless draw, so he’s not a bad play.

West Brom Breakdown

West Brom is coached by Tony Pulis who is a big fan of defense. However, their performances last season weren’t exactly indicative of this. This is a team that finished the season with 34 goals scored and 48 conceded. They are lucky they are facing a Crystal Palace squad that is expected to also struggle in scoring goals this season. West Brom’s best chances have come from corner kicks and other set pieces. If you choose to look at WBA, then consider their crossing player.

West Brom Top Plays

none

Secondary Plays

Matt Phillips and James McClean – Matt Phillips signed over with WBA this offseason, and it will be unknown which of them will be on corners and the main crossing player. Both of them are very capable. Matt Phillips is cheaper and makes for a better option due to his low price tag of $4,400. McClean on the other hand has the better track record with this team as he was sixth in the EPL last season in crosses, but he doesn’t get up as often as he only had 652 touches in the final third last season. When comparing McClean ($5,300) to Phillips, the price tag of Phillips is more enticing. However, if Phillips doesn’t start, then McClean is a great play as he can be expected to provide at least 5 crosses and some other statistics.

Solomon Rondon, Forward $5,200 – At $5,200, Rondon might be one of the cheaper forward options to consider for this slate. Moreover, he might be a low owned option as most people will target expensive forwards and will try to go cheap with the midfield. Rondon gets you the chance to vary your team a little. He had a good summer scoring twice in the COPA America, and finished last season on a positive note.

Everton vs Tottenham

Everton						Tottenham
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				3.18						2.46
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	SoT A/Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	SoT A/Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
12.92	4.50	0.00	0.00	20.63	0.00	17.32	6.53	0.00	0.00	19.42	0.00

Everton Breakdown

A Change in coaches marks a new beginning for Everton as they now are operating under the helm of Ronald Koeman, the former coach of Southampton. Koeman so far to start the season has played a 3-5-2 formation with a false nine alongside his striker. He’s also allowed for more flexibility from his full backs on offense, which could potentially make his team a very intriguing squad for fantasy this season. Moreover, this matchup with Tottenham should prove to be a fun one as both teams are looking to be offensive minded with some exciting fantasy options.

Everton Top Plays

Gerard Deulofeu, Forward, $6,500 – He’s been Koeman’s choice for a false nine which, combined with his corner kick abilities, makes him an excellent choice for your teams this weekend (and probably every week). Deulofeu was a top options last season when he was healthy and looks to be another choice for DFS and season long this year. Priced at $6,500, he’s going to be difficult to fit in your squad, but again, you get what you pay for, and for Deulofeu he’s a great option in what is supposed to be a fast paced match. Last season he had just two goals, but this pre-season he already has 3 goals and plays at a much higher pace and in a more direct way. It appears that Koeman is looking to really push the attacking identity of this squad in what should be a boost to most players on this Merseyside team.

Kevin Mirallas, Midfield $4,600 – If he gets the start he might take some of the corners from Deulofeu. Also in a 3-5-2 formation he would be an attacking midfielder and join the two up front to provide some additional support to overwhelm the opponent’s defense. Mirallas has tremendous shot upside as well as crossing upside. He’s able to score goals or generate assists making him a great option in this fast paced match at such a low price.

Everton Secondary Plays

Leighton Baines, Defender $5,500 – He’s very highly priced, and most people will avoid him because they remember last season where he didn’t provide the fantasy output that we expect. What they don’t know however is how much Koeman loves his full backs to push forward and pass the ball down the channels. Baines also took penalty kicks in the past which increases his value, and his relationship with his compatriot coach should benefit him in terms of time on the pitch.

Joel Robles, Goalkeeper $4,800 – Tottenham were second in the league last season in goals scored. But they were responsible for the most saves by an opponent’s keeper in the entire league. While Robles faces a chance of conceding some goals, he’s potentially going to get lots of saves that he might overcome any goals he concedes. Nonetheless, this is a risky play as he could concede a couple of goals and not make any more than 2-3 saves. But conversely, he could allow just a single goal, but make 5-6 saves. It’s a little bit of a gamble.

Tottenham Breakdown

After squandering the chance to win the league last season with some very poor performances last season, Mauricio Pochettino said today that he was extremely mad at his team and that they showed their lack of experience to close out the season. Well, they’re one year older and they’ve added some backup for their squad to handle the grueling season that comes with Champions League play, as well as the various local cups they will participate in. The addition of Janssen and Wanyama help the squad, and although I don’t expect them to get plenty of playing time to start off, they’ll get their time in the spotlight.

Tottenham Top Plays

Harry Kane, Forward $10,200 – Kane scored 25 goals last season, he also started every match for Tottenham the last two seasons as well as played for England in the U21 Euros as well as Euro 2016 this summer. Kane is a busy player, but he’s been performing tremendously for this squad, and I predict he’ll continue to find the way to score for Tottenham. Last year he started off slow, and then picked up his pace later to score all his goals after the first six weeks. Kane is one of the top strikers in the premier league and should be heavily owned along with Sergio Aguero on Saturday.

Erik Lamela, Midfield $7,000 – The price tag of most of the midfielders on Tottenham is too high, Lamela is the cheapest option. Eriksen is actually the most expensive midfielder in the game Saturday, and that’s ok, he’s well deserving. However, for myself, I’ll likely look to Lamela for my exposure to the Tottenham midfield. Last season Lamela scored 5 goals, but he had 66 crosses and provided 9 assists for his team. He finished the season up with three matches in double digits, so he should be able to pick up where he left off if things go according to plan.

Tottenham Secondary Plays

Hugo Lloris, Goalkeeper $5,000 – The same logic behind using Robles applies here with Lloris. This should be a game with plenty of shots, which means there could be many goals, but there could also be plenty of saves making Lloris likely to get plenty of saves. Lloris also can get the win and a clean sheet based on his skills. Another reason to consider Lloris is his opponents may be spearheaded by Deulofeu at forward (as a false 9) and last season Deulofeu had a low conversion rate, and while I think Deulofeu will improve this season, I don’t know if he’ll necessarily show that improvement in game one of the season.

Middlesbrough vs Stoke City

Middlesbrough						Stoke City
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				2.3						3.63
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	SoT A/Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	SoT A/Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11.00	3.32	0.00	0.00	17.97	0.00

Middlesbrough Breakdown

The runners up in the Championship last season made their name with a strong defensive squad. They managed to record 22 shut outs of their opponents, their manager prefers a 4-2-3-1 formation that changes to a 4-2-2-2 towards the end of the match to boost their offense. The addition of Valdez from Manchester United at goalkeeper bolsters that position for them and gives them a keeper with Premier League experience. One thing to worry about with Middlesbrough is squad rotation as their manager has stated in the past that he doesn’t believe in a set rotation, but he takes how the midweek training looked when he decides his starting XI, which may lead to some heavy rotation prior to the match. This week the match will be early enough that we don’t have to worry too much about missing a player, but in the future, if they are a late game, I would be hesitant to roster many players from that squad.

Middlesbrough Top Plays

Alvaro Negredo, Forward $7,200 – Yet another option at the $7K range, Given that he’s on a promoted team, I expect his ownership to be the lowest among all the players at that price range. But don’t be mistaken, I think Negredo will score a goal this week against a weakened Stoke squad that will be playing without Jack Butland. Long time watchers of the Premier League know that Negredo was on Manchester City in the 2013/14 season, He scored 23 goals that season in all competitions, but he’s since gone to Valencia where he hasn’t managed to do much (only 11 goals in 30 starts over two seasons), and while most of that was due to a falling out with the coach, it remains to be seen what he can do in the Premier League once again.

Middlesbrough Secondary Plays

George Friend, Defender $4,000 – He was probably the best left wing back in the Championship last season and should continue to be a productive fantasy player this season. Friend will push forward at times to spread the playing area for his squad. He’s also an excellent tackler and can provide some interceptions. Averaging more than 2.5 in each last season.

Stoke City Breakdown

While the rest of the Premier League looks to be improving, Stoke apparently stayed put. They still have some transcendent talents in Marko Arnautovic and Xherdan Shaqiri who can both score goals at any time. This is a team that might start slow due to plenty of apparent injuries to start the season. They currently have their entire backline as “Game time decisions” heading into the match on Saturday, which leaves plenty of unknown. They’re facing a tough defensive squad on the road in their home opener in their return to the premier league for the first time since 2009. I expect that Stoke will pack the box and try to hold the match to a goalless draw.

Stoke City Top Plays

None

Stoke City Secondary Plays

None

Southampton at Watford

Southampton						Watford
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				1.787						5.16
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	SoT A/Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	SoT A/Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
13.66	4.24	0.00	0.00	25.16	0.00	11.74	3.58	0.00	0.00	18.53	0.00

Southampton Breakdown

They’ve got a new coach and have had some big shakeups over the offseason with the departure of Mane, and Pelle. This team is looking for continuation of their positive season where they finished 6th ahead of teams like West Ham, Liverpool and Chelsea. They do have some players on the team that can bring them to the same level of success as they did last season. But it remains to be seen how the new manager, Claude Puel, handles the squad. They will play a 4-4-2 with a midfield diamond most of the time. This gives players such as Tadic and Jay Rodriguez some serious upside heading into the new season.

Southampton Top Plays

Dusan Tadic, Midfield $7,200 – Yet another option at the $7K range, but Tadic differs from others in this regard. He can easily perform at a very high level. The team is in their home home opener and hosting a Watford squad that allowed a lot of crosses and shot attempts the previous season. Tadic should be one of the options for his squad to be on corners. If he does take corners then he could reach double digits easily. Expect Tadic to also come close to scoring goals for this squad in this match.

Shane Long, Forward $7,300 – A full stack of this match would be a good place to go as it can diverge you from the crowd, and there are enough options here that can facilitate a stack. I like the chances for Long headed into the season as he’s taken over the striker spot in the preseason matches. He scored 10 goals last season in just 23 starts while averaging 2.3 shots per game. At 29 years old, he’s ready to take that role as top forward on a squad and we can see how he performs.

Southampton Secondary Plays

Nathan Redmond, $5,300 – If he starts alongside Long as a forward, you can have the benefit of fitting an extra forward on your squad. Given the importance of goals in the DFS soccer game, getting as many forwards in your squad is a good thing. At his price, he might be the cheapest forward available (again depending on the starting XIs that get announced an hour prior to lineup lock.) The one fear with Redmond is that he’s not a forward and he played at Norwich last season as a midfielder/winger and not as a forward. Last season he managed just 1.5 shots per game with only 0.5 of those shots hitting the target. This resulted in a total of 6 goals and 3 assists.

Watford Breakdown

After finishing in 13th place last season, Watford is looking to build on that this season with a new manager in the hiring of Walter Mazzarri. Mazzarri has so far employed a 3-5-2 formation with Deeney and Ighalo up top, and early returns look like those two will be the main targets all season. This matchup with Southampton on the road means that the performance will drop, as they don’t hold possession as well on the road, and they don’t attack as often. With this defensive formation, I don’t expect to see that different this season.

Watford Top Plays

None

Watford Secondary Plays

Troy Deeney, Forward $7,000 – With the choice of Deeney or Ighalo, I prefer Deeney this week as he has been taking penalties for the squad and he’s scored goals this preseason. Deeney finished last season with 13 goals and 7 assists, and of his 94 shots he had 31 on target. That’s a decent enough rate to consider him almost weekly, and given that Southampton is not necessarily the best defensive squad, Deeney may have some opportunities.

Manchester City vs Sunderland

Manchester City						Sunderland
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				1.256						14.2
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	SoT A/Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	SoT A/Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
16.18	5.47	0.00	0.00	22.76	0.00	11.55	3.61	0.00	0.00	15.53	0.00

Manchester City Breakdown

The final match of the day brings us the most lopsided of them all. Manchester City are a heavy favorite going against a team that barely staved off relegation, and really, should be relegated this year. City however, are on a quest to win the title this year, and will be looking for some success in the Champions League as well. This is a week where rostering anybody from City will not be a bad decisions, so it all comes down to lineup construction. They’ve added some quality players over the offseason, and they now have the great Pep Guardiola as their coach which should boost their chances. However, I expect that Pep will take some time to get his system in place, but with excellent players on his squad such as Aguero, De Bruyne, Navas and Silva, the positive performances won’t be far away.

Manchester City Top Plays

Sergio Aguero, Forward $10,600 – Quite possibly one of the best strikers in the world, He had a forgettable COPA America over the summer, but if he can avoid injury this season he should be exceed 20 goals this season. In matchups with weak teams last season Aguero excelled scoring 5 times against Newcastle, and once against Sunderland. I don’t expect five goals, but I think Aguero can get at least a goal or two. His price limits your lineup building, but the ability he has to score goals is unparalleled in the premier league and so he should be on your radar no matter what it takes.

Kevin De Bruyne, Midfield $9,300 – People will choose between Aguero and KDB. De Bruyne has the advantage of being a more reliable cash game play as he can provide double digit crosses and a few shots as well. He also is likely to provide assists and can fill in the stat sheet. Last season KDB was overwhelmingly one of the top fantasy players in the league, and I think he’s going to continue that ability this season.

Manchester City Secondary Plays

David Silva, Midfield $8,300 – A pivot off of De Bruyne, Silva has the same upside as De Bruyne, and can easily lead the league in assists at the end of the season. The Spaniard had a decent season last year, but it was a down year by most measurements, and he’ll be looking to bounce back. Depending on the style that Pep wants to play, Silva could end up have a very solid season.

Sunderland Breakdown

They’re going to be fighting to avoid relegation this season and it will be an uphill tough battle. I expect that Sunderland will likely spend their season staving off defeat after defeat. Their best chance is to pack the box and hope that they can escape the Emirates with a 0-0 draw. Will they be able to? I doubt it.

Sunderland Top Plays

No

Sunderland Secondary Plays

Maybe taking a GPP flyer on their keeper and potentially Wahbi Khazri as they could both surpass double digits. However, I won’t be doing that.