EPL Grind Down: Gameweek 11

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2017-01-11 20:06:33

I’ll keep the introduction short this week, but we’ve got some five games that aren’t going to feature a lot of scoring as most of these games seem pretty straight forward. The analysis should help guide you in the right direction, but remember that when lineups come out, there is a good chance that some of these plays may not be applicable anymore. Also important to remember that value can show up when lineups are announced and you have to take advantage of these. Need help figuring out that value? I’ll be hanging out in the marketplace chat room answering questions before lock talking about value plays and answering any questions you might have.

In the meantime, feel free to reach out on twitter with any comments or suggestions

Bournemouth vs Sunderland

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Bournemouth						Sunderland
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				-155						468
				L W D W D L						L L D L L L
				3-3-4						0-2-8
11.70	3.50	14.00	7.80	17.10	18.80	8.90	2.30	16.60	9.10	16.60	20.50
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Wilson, Daniels, Stanislas		Ibe, Arter, Gradel		King, Fraser, Gradel, Stanislas, Daniels		Borini, Defoe, Watmore		Khazri, Van Aanholt		Khazri, Januzaj, Gooch, van Aanholt

The matchup against Sunderland is always an easy one. The last three teams to play Sunderland have been able to drop 21 (Arsenal), 20 (West Ham), and 17 (Stoke) shots, in return Sunderland have returned a total shot count of 24 shots combined in all three matches. Sunderland have given up almost at least 60% possession in almost all their away matches, the exception being when they gave up 57.2% to a Stoke team that has mostly struggled in recent weeks. This matchup is shaping up to be a Bournemouth blowout where they dominate from start to finish and probably convert a couple of goals. This however does add some intrigue on Fanduel as defensive players from this match might be in a good spot to collect some stats. Last week Sunderland were trampled by Arsenal 4-1 as they dipped even further in cementing their status as the most likely relegated team this season. Sunderland have just 2 points on the season with their only road points coming in a 1-1 draw at Saint Mary’s (Southampton). Bournemouth on the other hand are currently in the top half of the league despite losing 2-0 to Middlesbrough last time out. Bournemouth have been gun shy this season with only scoring 12 goals in 10 matches, but 9 of these goals have come at home, meaning that the Cherries will likely have some opportunities here against a team that hasn’t kept a clean sheet yet this season.

Bournemouth Top Plays

Callum Wilson, Forward, $6,600 DK, $5,700 FD – The most likely goal scorer on this Bournemouth squad is Callum Wilson who comes in as one of the better value plays at the forward spot. With Bournemouth playing against Sunderland, many do expect Wilson to deliver a goal this week which makes him one of the top plays for me on both FD and DK.

Charlie Daniels, Defender, $5,300 DK, $6,500 FD – Daniels has been taking penalty kicks for Bournemouth making him a good option every week on both sites. He’s also one of the full backs that bombs forward and delivers crosses and creates chances for his teammates which makes him a hot commodity on both DK and FD. Daniels is an open play cross taker for this team and carries a decent floor, which makes him a reliable source of points but for his position as a defender in a game where it makes more sense to go cheap at defenders and pay up for midfielders and forwards.

Bournemouth Secondary Plays

Jack Wilshire, Midfielder, $4,300 DK, $5,000 FD – Wilshire intrigues me due to his activity and the fact that he has been very effective on the pitch, but hasn’t translated that to DFS production, indeed he led the team in touches last time out and the majority of those were in the opponents half. In a match in which the Cherries should dominate possession, Wilshire seems like an obvious pick to take that next step forward.

Sunderland Top Plays

Patrick Van Aanholt, Defender, $5,000 DK, $6,900 FD – Van Aanholt is probably a cash play on FD more than on DK where he delivers crosses for Sunderland, but does not necessarily do a lot of it. On FD he will benefit from being on the defensive more often than not and can accumulate points from tackles, clearances, interceptions and blocked shots. He also is usually one of the top “passers” on this team so he can get some points from passes (FD awards 0.25 points for every 5 successful passes a player completes.

Sunderland Secondary Plays

Jermaine Defoe, Forward, $6,300 DK, $6,300 FD – Defoe is going against his old team here this week where he played for a season on loan in 2000-2001, so revenge doesn’t really play into this match, but Defoe does have 5 goals so far this season for Sunderland including a consolation goal last time out against Arsenal, so the sun hasn’t set yet on this 34 year old striker.

Burnley vs Crystal Palace

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Burnley						Crystal Palace
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				244						134
				L W L L W D						W W D L L L
				3-2-5						3-2-5
8.50	1.90	17.50	9.90	17.00	24.10	14.70	4.20	11.80	6.80	27.80	19.60
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Andre Gray, Sam Vokes		Dean Marney, Johann-Berg Gudmundsson		Johann-Berg Gudmundsson		Cabaye, Wickham		Cabaye, Puncheon, Jedinak, Ward, Delaney		Townsend, Puncheon, Cabaye, Ledley

Two teams that are level on points heading into this match, but they couldn’t be any different. Burnley have been one of the leakiest defense this season so far having given up 17.5 shots a game so far including stymying Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Manchester United last time out to a 0-0 draw after everybody assumed that Zlatan would run rampant through their back lines and score a few goals to finally break his spell. Burnley did give up 38 shots last time out to United, and this week, Crystal Palace are projected to take 28 shots (highest this week) and given their opponent I have no doubt that they’ll be able to get that many off. This match is being played at Burnley home grounds, Turf Moor, giving them a shot in this one, but the likely outcome is a draw and maybe a couple of goals scored. This is a matchup that not a lot of people will target for fantasy purposes, but with the state of this slate, it wouldn’t surprise me if lots of players do get some exposure to some of the key pieces from both teams in this one. Burnley’s opposition in this one is Crystal Palace who have undergone somewhat of a freefall in the last three matchdays having lost all three matches with a combined score of 8-3 to the likes of West Ham, Leicester and Liverpool. The matchup with Burnley is a good chance to try to recover. Palace’s strategy usually depends on opening up the field and trying to spread the ball out wide using their superior midfielders, on the defensive end, Burnley allow the most crosses from opponents as they tend to compact the field and allow the opponent to take their crosses. This combination does allow for Crystal Palace a lot of potential for crosses and chances created.

Burnley Top Plays

Tom Heaton, Goalkeeper, $4,700 DK, $6,600 FD – He’s the value play of the week on DK and probably the cash play on FD given the way the two sites vary in their pricing algorithm. DK factors in the win% heavily in their pricing algorithm, which makes Heaton a top play to consider this week on both sites as his price is bargain bin levels there, but he has the potential for double digits just on saves alone. We like Heaton again this week, playing at home, as an underdog keeper who should face several shots on target that can be converted into saves for fantasy points.

Jon Flanagan, Defender, $3,500 DK, $3,900 FD – Flanagan will get to make his first start for Burnley this week, the Liverpool loanee will start at full back this week at the cheap price of $3,500 on DK and $3,900 on FD. He carries more value on FD where he might get some defensive stats, than on DK where he is unlikely to venture forward too much to support a weak attack.

Burnley Secondary Plays

Andre Gray or Sam Vokes, Forwards, $5,900DK/$6,100 FD, $5,300DK/$5,400 – Gray was one of the rising stars in the Championship last season, unfortunately, this season has been a bit derailed for him so far with a 4 game suspension resulting from a tweet he sent back in 2011. Gray is back though and he has 1 goal and 1 assist on the season. He’s a threat to score, but he’s an unlikely threat, even on his team. The most likely threat to score on Burnley is Vokes who comes in with 2 goals in his last three matches and can convert another one this week.

Crystal Palace Top Plays

Jason Puncheon, Midfielder/Forward, $6,600 DK, $7,400 FD – Puncheon is a cash game option with high floor and some upside for this Crystal Palace team. Puncheon takes almost 30% of the crosses for this team and given the expected crosses for Palace are among the top on the week, then Puncheon will make his way into my cash teams this week

Crystal Palace Secondary Plays

Yohann Cabaye, Midfielder, $6,500 DK, $7,500 FD – Cabaye carries some extreme value on Fanduel where he has a very high floor and a decent price tag to allow for selecting him. Cabaye also carries some upside as he went through a tear earlier in the season and scored some goals for this squad to get them some early success. The team has been struggling lately which has lowered the expectations for everybody across the board from a fantasy standpoint. However, Cabaye does carry some potential in all formats given his knack for interceptions and tackles. Last week without scoring he reached 28 points on FD, but just 9 on DK making him a better value play on FD.

Manchester City vs Middlesbrough

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Manchester City						Middlesbrough
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				-413						1374
				W W L D D W						L L D L D W
				7-2-1						2-4-4
17.20	6.00	8.00	4.40	19.20	14.80	9.30	2.50	11.90	6.80	19.90	17.80
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Aguero, Toure, De Bruyne, Bony, Kolarov		Toure, Kolarov, De Bruyne, Silva		De Bruyne, Silva, Kolarov, Navas, Nasri, Sterling		Ramirez, Downing		Ramirez, Downing		Downing, Ramirez, Friend

City come into this one very excited over their midweek win over Barcelona as well as their weekend win over West Brom last weekend. They will try to continue their successful run against Middlesbrough. Middlesbrough enter this match with a win from last weekend 2-0 over Bournemouth. Middlesbrough have allowed just 2 goals in their last 4 matches with two successive clean sheets. This matchup with Manchester City though puts them in a different class as City have scored the most goals in the premier league at 24 in all their matches and 13 goals in their last 6 matches. The projections show City with a 2-0 win as the most likely conclusion for this one.

Manchester City Top Plays

Sergio Aguero, Forward, $9,200 DK, $12,300 FD – One of the best strikers in the world is looking like he’s about to start one of his not-so-rare runs of form. With 2 goals and an assist in the last week, Aguero will be looking to continue that run this week as the team hosts Middlesbrough. There is risk here as Middlesbrough are a tougher defense than usual, but they did give up 3 goals to the likes of Everton and 2 goals to Tottenham, so giving up some goals to City isn’t out of the question.

Kevin De Bruyne, Midfielder, $8,900 DK, $11,800 FD – De Bruyne is a cash game option on both sites regardless of the scoring as he’s the dynamo for this City team. He’s in contention for the most likely cash play with Payet, and you wouldn’t be wrong going with either one for your lineups.

Manchester City Secondary Plays

Ilkay Gundogan, Midfielder, $4,800 DK, $7,300 FD – I’m listing Goaldogan here because I’m tired of not mentioning him and him scoring goals. He has four goals this week and is the hottest player on the planet. Will he continue that run? He’s going to produce nothing else on DK as he doesn’t get any stats on there except for goals, but on FD he can be considered for cash, but there are better options every week. If Gundogan does score again this week, I’d recommend him on DK since his price there is very cheap and gets you exposure to the City offense. Another option for City is Iheanacho who’s priced at just $6,500 on DK and $6,700 on FD. This of course assumes him starting, or any of the front 4 including Sterling and Silva can be considered options for tournaments.

Middlesbrough Top Plays

Victor Valdes, Goalkeeper, $3,800 DK, $5,000 FD – Valdes will not get a lot of attention because he doesn’t normally make a lot of saves since his team tends to not allow a lot of shots. However, with a road game against City, he’s probably going to have a chance to make a few saves this game especially going against top notch players such as Sergio Aguero.

Middlesbrough Secondary Plays

Adam Clayton, Midfielder, $3,900 DK, $5,400 FD – He’s a FD pick with the likelihood of adding some defensive stats. He has a 15-25 point floor on Fanduel, and likely just 5 points on DK, so you can ignore him on DK, his ceiling is non-existent as there is a very slim chance for anybody outside of the front 3 on Middlesbrough to score a goal especially with a 4-1-4-1 formation.

Alvaro Negredo, Forward, $6,000 DK, $6,300 FD – If City were to concede another goal this week (they’ve conceded in every game but 1 since September 21st), then Negredo gets the nod as the most likely goal scorer for this team playing as the number 9 on this team. His price is cheap enough that you can take a chance on him on either site, and I like a chance taken with him more than I do on some of the other underdogs.

West Ham vs Stoke

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
West Ham						Stoke
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				101						309
				L L D W W L						L D D W W W
				3-1-6						3-3-4
15.10	2.80	11.60	8.00	21.30	16.40	12.00	3.40	13.20	8.30	19.20	19.90
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Noble, Carroll		Payet, Zarate, Noble, Cresswell, Valencia		Payet, Zarate, Lanzini, Noble, Cresswell,		Bojan, Arnautovic, Adam, Walters		Adam, Shaqiri, Arnautovic, Ireland		Bojan, Shaqiri, Adam, Affelay, Ireland, Arnautovic.

West Ham and Stoke were two teams that had some very negative runs earlier this season where they both found themselves in the relegation zone. Since then, they’ve both managed to stop the bleeding somewhat and find themselves in the middle of the pack in the second half of the table that includes 9 teams with points between 10 and 13. This matchup then carries some special importance as both these squads want to get all three points, but as you can see from the bookie odds, West Ham carry the slight edge in this one. There are going to be some plays in here that we can take advantage of.

West Ham Top Plays

Dimitri Payet, Midfielder, $9,300 DK, $10,200 FD – Payet is the top cash play this week along with KDB as both carry that high floor along with the excellent ceiling that comes from playing at home in a match that should feature their team scoring some goals. Payet is consistently in the top 5 of the league in crosses, chances created and assists, and this week is a great opportunity to continue that trend as Stoke have allowed more than average amount of crosses and chances from the wings relative to the rest of the league.

West Ham Secondary Plays

Whoever starts at striker – West Ham are having trouble scoring goals lately, and part of the reason is inconsistency from the forwards. Slaven Bilic likes to play a 3-4-2-1 formation that uses the full backs as midfielders, and that’s likely where Michail Antonio will slot with one of Zaza, Ayew, or Feghouli as the striker supported by Payet and Lanzini. If Ayew starts, it will be his first action in the season and thus might be too rusty to really trust him, which limits the options on West Ham to just Payet. If Zaza starts, I’d be tempted to take a chance on him as he’s had some chances come real close so far this season and would make for a good differential play.

Stoke Top Plays

None

Stoke Secondary Plays

Ramadan Sobhi, Midfielder, $4,100 DK, $3,300 FD – If Sobhi starts then he’ll jump into the role of Shaqiri who might be out injured. Priced at just 4.1K on DK and 3.3K on FD he’s bottom tier value that could come through. Sobhi has goal scoring ability as well as crossing instincts to go along with play making ability. West Ham are weak enough in defense that he can take advantage of it and try to create chances for his teammates and could take advantage of an opportunity himself. For such a cheap price you can’t go wrong targeting him in this matchup.

Wilfried Bony, Forward, $6,400 DK, $4,700 FD – Bony is cheap enough on FD to consider, and middle of the road on DK to make you want to fade him given how uneven his performances are. He’s been close to scoring for several weeks and finally came through last time out scoring two goals against his former club Swansea. He’ll look to continue the scoring this week against a West Ham squad that he’s very capable of scoring against.

Phil Bardsley, Defender, $4,300 DK, $4,900 FD – Bardsley is the cheaper of the two full backs for Stoke and would get you about 10-15 points on FD and about 5-10 points on DK. His ability to score goals is minimal and his cheap price allow you to fit other plays in your team.

Chelsea vs Everton

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Chelsea						Everton
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				-175						540
				L L W W W W						W L D D L W
				7-1-2						5-3-2
16.50	5.90	8.10	4.40	21.20	15.80	14.40	5.50	10.20	5.20	20.90	19.60
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Hazard, Oscar, Fabregas, Costa		Willian, Oscar, Fabregas, Matic		Willian, Fabregas		Baines, Barkley, Mirallas		Barkley, Mirallas, Baines, Deulofeu		Mirallas, Baines, Barkley, Deulofeu

The last match of the day features Chelsea playing against Everton. Chelsea are coming in on a four game win streak where they’ve outscored their opponents 11-0 and kept four clean sheets in the process. Everton will have their work cut out for them as they’ve come into this one as big underdogs to Chelsea. Chelsea’s projections have them out-shooting Everton 15-10, and finishing the match with a slight advantage of 2-1 as a final score. The match should be even with possessions, crosses and every other category coming down to the wire.

Chelsea Top Plays

Eden Hazard, Midfielder, $9,100 DK, $10,000 FD – Hazard has three goals in his last three matches and is rounding into his world class form that he displayed for Chelsea two seasons ago and seems to be loving playing for Antonio Conte. Hazard is slightly expensive, and if you want exposure to him then you’ll have to pay up, but he will be worth it. On FD he can reach 20 points without scoring and on DK he can easily reach the double digit floor through peripherals alone. That floor for crosses exists though simply due to the lack of Willian in recent weeks which may or may not continue this week, and if Willian does not start, then Hazard continues to have cash game value.

Diego Costa, Forward, $8,400 DK, $10,000 FD – Costa is cheaper on DK than on FD making him a better option on there. He doesn’t have much of a floor as he doesn’t get many touches, but he’s been superb in front of goal this season with goals in five of his last 7 games, and against Everton he’s more than likely to score a goal putting him as a top option considering his price.

Chelsea Secondary Plays

N’Golo Kante, Midfielder, $3,800 DK, $8,400 FD – Kante is almost a cash play on FD with his floor of interceptions, tackles and clearances as he leads the team in those categories. I like for Kante to be a low owned option that has as much potential as any other defensive midfielder, but starting in the late game thus making him a low owned option on FD. Fade him on DK.

Everton Top Plays

Romelu Lukaku, Forward, $8,200 DK, $8,900 FD – Lukaku has scored against Chelsea almost every time he has played against them since he was moved from the club a few years ago, and it seems that he still holds that grudge. Lots of people will roster him and try to take advantage of it, and I don’t blame them as he can be very active when he wants to and I believe his motivation will be there this week.

Everton Secondary Plays

Maarten Stekelenberg, Goalkeeper, $4,100 DK, $5,200 FD – Stekelenberg is recovering from a foot injury and that could lead to some mistakes in his performance against Chelsea as he returns from injury this week. He’s priced low enough to consider on all your teams, but I do like Heaton slightly better than him since you don’t know if he’s going to get the start or if Robles will start in his place still this week, so if you take him on DK make sure to leave that extra $100 available so you could switch to Robles if need be.