EPL Grind Down: Gameweek 17
With just one week until Christmas, teams are battling fatigue worse than ever before this season. Home teams are looking to take advantage of their schedule and road teams are looking to escape with minimal damage. The slate on Saturday is a short one with just five matches in the main Saturday slate. The teams playing today are on very short rest as this will be their third match in 8 days so I don’t expect a lot of offense between these teams as they tend to slow things down in the cold and dreary month of December.
If you want some more Soccer content, make sure to head out to the Marketplace where I’ve got some rankings, projections and a strategy section to go along with the all new DFS Hat-Trick, a video where I break down the top three options (in my opinion) at each position for the slate. On top of that, we’ve got an exclusive soccer chat room where I’ll hang out an hour before lock answering questions and helping you digest the lineups that just got released.
More than that? If you’ve got any questions or comments, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter and let me know what you think!
Middlesbrough vs Swansea
| Middlesbrough | Swansea | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 106 | 312 | ||||||||||
| D L D W L L | L D W L W L | ||||||||||
| 3-6-7 | 3-3-10 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.13 | 2.44 | 13.81 | 8.31 | 19.50 | 20.19 | 11.06 | 4.06 | 15.50 | 9.81 | 22.25 | 19.63 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Ramirez, Downing | Ramirez, Downing | Downing, Ramirez, Friend | Sigurdsson | Sigurdsson | Sigurdsson, Routledge, Stephen Kingsley | ||||||
Middlesbrough are a team that does not score a lot of goals (13 goals so far this season) and usually is involved in low scoring affairs (10 of their 16 matches have featured 2 goals or fewer, only 2 have featured more than 3 goals), meanwhile, Swansea are a team that is consistently part of matches that feature a large amount of goals and have so far conceded 34 goals this season, with seven matches having them conceding 3 or more goals this season. So in this matchup, which team will come out on top. The typical expectation is that with the match being played at Riverside Stadium (home of Middlesbrough), it’ll feature fewer goals and the match will tend closer to what we expect from a Middlesbrough matchup. So are there any obvious plays to target?
Middlesbrough Top Plays
Antonio Barragan, Defender, $4,900 DK, $4,900 FD – Barragan is cheap enough on both sites that he’s worth considering. He’s been the top crosser for Borough and is a part of their offense that initiates it from the right side. His partnership with Traore has been beneficial to both of them making them both potential options. This match might be low scoring though and will likely feature plenty of possession in the midfield putting Barragan at a position to make tackles and interceptions to elevate his floor.
Middlesbrough Secondary Plays
Alvaro Negredo, Forward, $6,500 DK, $7,800 – If Middlesbrough do score a goal, then the most likely source of that score is Negredo who has some goals in recent weeks and is now facing a team that has allowed plenty of goals as discussed above. Will Negredo come through this time for us? The uncertainty surrounding this question make him a tournament option only.
Swansea Top Plays
Gylfi Sigurdsson, Midfielder, $9,000 DK, $9,100 FD – Probably one of the top plays on the slate is Gylfi Sigurdsson who excels in the number 10 position for the Welsh club. Gylfi is a top performer for this team as he manages their offense and is a big part of the team as they look to escape out of the relegation zone. He had a monster game last time out and is similarly priced to Payet (more on that later) that I think he’ll have some good ownership numbers. He’s worth a target, but I wouldn’t classify him as a must play, especially on the road.
Swansea Secondary Plays
Jordi Amat, Defender, Defender, $5,500 FD – On FanDuel we love to target central defenders that should face some pressure and produce some defensive stats they can build their fantasy production on. Amat gets that nod for this one as Swansea are visiting Middlesbrough. Middlesbrough don’t score a lot of goals, but they will probably attack more being at home giving Amat a chance at clearances, tackles, interceptions and passes giving him a nice elevated floor we can target him at.
Kyle Naughton, Defender, $4,300 DK, $5,200 FD – On DraftKings, he’s one of the best defenders to target given his price and contribution to the team. With this game not expected to be high scoring, Naughton gets the nod here with the potential for tackles and interceptions interspersed with his offensive contributions that are expected as well.
Stoke vs Leicester
| Stoke | Leicester | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 161 | 198 | ||||||||||
| D L W W L D | L L D L W L | ||||||||||
| 5-5-6 | 4-4-8 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.69 | 3.50 | 14.13 | 8.56 | 17.69 | 22.19 | 11.13 | 3.25 | 14.13 | 8.13 | 18.75 | 21.38 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Bojan, Arnautovic, Adam, Walters | Shaqiri, Adam, Arnautovic | Shaqiri, Bojan, Adam, Arnautovic. | Mahrez, Vardy | Mahrez, Drinkwater, Gray | Mahrez, Drinkwater, Gray | ||||||
Leicester finally had a positive result that is worthy of the defending champs last weekend with a 4-2 win over Manchester City, only to have us question their authenticity in the midweek with a loss to Bournemouth on the road 1-0. This week they play Stoke on the road again in one of the toughest physical environments to play in all of the Premier League. So how will Leicester fare in this one? In their last matchup Leicester continued their standard performance of giving up possession and rely on the counter attack to score goals. This season that tactic hasn’t worked as well as last one, leaving them with the struggle they currently find themselves in. So How will Stoke respond to this one? Stoke have improved their performances in recent weeks bringing them up to 12th place after dropping into the relegation zone earlier in the season. In this matchup, I expect Stoke to hold possession and to have a slight edge when all is said and done, though this match screams a 1-1 draw with very little separating the two sides.
Stoke Top Plays
Xherdan Shaqiri, Midfielder, $7,600 DK, $6,500 FD – With Leicester likely sitting back and absorbing the attack, Shaqiri gets a boost being one of the top architects of this attack for Stoke. With the match at home he also carries some appeal where he averages more fantasy points than on the road. Shaqiri is on penalties and free kicks and seems to score a goal from a free kick every other game or so making him a great target.
Stoke Secondary Plays
Joe Allen, Midfielder, $6,700 DK, $7,400 FD – Playing behind the striker, Joe Allen carries some appeal as he’s always lingering in the box looking to score goals from rebounded balls and taking unexpected shots. He’ sa pure tournament play and not one to take a gamble on in a cash lineup. His price on DraftKings is low, but he’s also fairly cheap on FanDuel, making him an option on both sites.
Leicester Top Plays
Christian Fuchs, Defender, $5,000 DK, $5,600 FD – Fuchs is one of our top defenders to look for in each slate with his role on the team as valuable part of the offense starting plays and being part of the build up in the counter attack.
Leicester Secondary Plays
Jamie Vardy, Forward, $6,800 DK, $8,700 FD – After the hat-trick against City, Vardy has vaulted back into our minds as a striker worth considering in every matchup. With the match against Stoke, Vardy has a good chance to surprise us once again and come through with some goals for us. He’s a tournament option and his price on DraftKings is cheap enough to target him and not feel too bad if he doesn’t end up scoring.
Sunderland vs Watford
| Sunderland | Watford | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 165 | 200 | ||||||||||
| W W L W L L | L W L L W L | ||||||||||
| 3-2-11 | 6-3-7 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.75 | 2.69 | 19.00 | 11.06 | 15.75 | 25.00 | 11.19 | 3.81 | 14.00 | 7.94 | 18.44 | 24.06 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Borini, Defoe, Watmore | Khazri, Van Aanholt | Khazri, Januzaj, Gooch, van Aanholt | Deeney, Ighalo | Abdi | Watson, Abdi, Capoue, Holebas | ||||||
Watford are a typical mid table team with mixed results both at home and on the road. They catch a break here playing Sunderland this week, in what should end up being an even matchup between two teams that are vastly different in style. Watford have transitioned their formation to a 3-4-3 this season relying less on Ighalo and replacing him up front with Amrabat, and Success flanking Troy Deeney. Meanwhile, they’ve pulled their full backs into the midfield, and haven’t been punished too harshly for it with the addition of Holebas and Janmaat this season. This team is equipped for attacking weak defenses such as Sunderland. Sunderland on the other hand will try to take advantage of playing at home in order to catch Watford on their heels, but ultimately, this will be a matchup more about possession than it will be about shots, which means you can expect roughly 10 shots on target total between both teams meaning a score of 1-0 or 1-1 is highly likely with the edge leaning slightly towards the home team.
Sunderland Top Plays
None
Sunderland Secondary Plays
Jermain Defoe, Forward, $7,200 DK, $7,800 FD – Defoe has been on a goal scoring tear in recent weeks with four of his 8 goals coming since the start of November. Defoe has a chance to add to that tally this weekend against a Watford team that has allowed teams to score 15 goals against them in their last six and have not kept a clean sheet in that period.
Watford Top Plays
None
Watford Secondary Plays
Troy Deeney, Forward, $6,100 DK, $7,100 FD – With him taking over as the top striker on this team and the team switching a 3-4-3, Deeney has the potential to deliver on that promise. Unfortunately, he hasn’t really scored many goals in his last few matches (just one goal in 10 matches), but his price on DraftKings has dropped significantly to make him a potential value against this Sunderland team.
West Ham vs Hull
| West Ham | Hull | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| -151 | 470 | ||||||||||
| D L D L D W | W L D L D L | ||||||||||
| 4-4-8 | 3-3-10 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.38 | 3.00 | 13.88 | 9.38 | 20.00 | 20.88 | 9.56 | 3.19 | 19.81 | 10.94 | 17.69 | 23.31 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Noble, Carroll | Payet, Zarate, Noble, Cresswell, Valencia | Payet, Zarate, Lanzini, Noble, Cresswell, | Hernandez, Snodgrass | Snodgrass | Snodgrass, Huddlestone | ||||||
At 16 points from 16 matches West Ham have severely disappointed and fallen far off the pace set last season when they threatened for a spot in Europe for most of the season. This week they get one of the easier matchups in the EPL with a home draw against Hull. On the season on the road, Hull have not won in 7 straight ties with 6 straight losses. They’ve also failed to score in four straight road matches and in their last 6 they’ve only scored twice while conceding 19 times. West Ham aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire in their last six matches either with 2 losses, 2 draws and 2 wins. But this matchup might be the perfect situation to get them some much needed separation from the relegation pack if things go their way.
West Ham Top Plays
Darren Randolph, Goalkeeper, $5,300 DK, $6,500 FD – Randolph has the potential for a clean sheet and win here with Hull coming to visit. With a team that can’t score on the road, Randolph might not be challenged much, but he’ll have the safety net of the win and clean sheet. Though, there is a concern with West Ham being a tough to figure out team that can fluctuate in their performances week in and week out, which gives Randolph a chance at some saves to go along with the win. He’s not my favorite keeper, but he’s a solid choice to target if you decide to deviate from the other listed options (see below)
Dimitri Payet, Midfielder, $9,100 DK, $9,800 FD – Payet might be the biggest lock of the slate with a potential for double digit crosses, some shots, and potential for a goal or assist or both. In a slate devoid of the big name goal scorers, Payet might be a must play in both cash and tournaments. If you’ve played DFS EPL so far this season or last, you know the value that Payet brings to the table.
West Ham Secondary Plays
Andy Carroll, Forward, $6,400 DK, $8,100 FD – Carroll has been playing the striker for this team and should be the most likely goal scorer on this team if given the opportunity which he should have in this one. With a skilled distributor as Payet behind him he’ll be expected to get the ball in a good position several times with the hopes of converting one of those chances to a goal.
Hull Top Plays
None
Hull Secondary Plays
David Marshall, Goalkeeper, $4,100 DK, $6,200 FD – Marshall will be a popular goalkeeper to target for those who look for saves and want to avoid goals going in against their keeper. West Ham are unlikely to pile on a ton of goals, but they will control this match and take lots of shots against this team giving Marshall a chance to tally up to 5-8 saves with minimal damage. He makes for a great cash play on FanDuel and a good tournament play on DraftKings.
Robert Snodgrass, Midfielder, $8,100 DK, $6,900 FD – If Hull were to do anything in this match, then it would be up to Snodgrass to come through for the tigers in this matchup. Snodgrass has had lopsided fantasy performances on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Ranging from close to 40 fantasy points( FD), down to single digits. The same is true on DraftKings, with a bit more consistency, but Snodgrass still relies on Hull to score for him to reach GPP winning point totals.
West Bromwich Albion vs Manchester United
| West Bromwich Albion | Manchester United | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| -135 | |||||||||||
| W W D W L W | W D D D W W | ||||||||||
| 6-5-5 | 7-6-3 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.94 | 3.38 | 12.94 | 7.94 | 19.56 | 22.31 | 16.25 | 5.38 | 9.63 | 5.06 | 24.75 | 15.38 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Berahino, Rondon, Gardner | Gardner, Rondon, McClean | Brunt, Gardner, McClean, Berahino | Rooney, Ibrahimovic, Herrera, Martial, Mata | Rooney, Ibrahimovic, Depay, Mata, Young | Blind, Rooney, Depay, Mata, Herrera, Young | ||||||
The final match on the Saturday slate is between West Brom and United with the baggies playing host to Jose Mourinho’s squad. United will have Antonio Valencia back for this one but the team will be missing some key contributors in Eric Bailly, Luke Shaw and Henrikh Mkhitaryan due to injury. West Brom however come into this one with with just the one concern of Jonny Evans missing out due to injury. This matchup has United as a heavy road favorite which sets up for an interesting set of decisions to make with this match being the late one meaning we won’t have the starting lineups when the other matches start. There are however plenty of DFS interesting options here that are worth considering and targeting, so let’s have a look
West Bromwich Albion Top Plays
Ben Foster, Goalkeeper, $4,100 DK, $6,800 FD – He might be a better option on FanDuel than DraftKings because of how much more valuable a save is on there, but he’s still got potential for a solid match on DraftKings. Because of the shots on target he’ll face but he’s more of a tournament option on DraftKings than a cash option.
West Bromwich Albion Secondary Plays
Matt Phillips, Midfielder, $6,900 DK, $6,700 FD – Phillips has been quietly the best player on this West Brom team, he’s been a contributor to goals in every game that the baggies have scored goals in their last 6 matches (they didn’t score against Chelsea, and he managed an underwhelming 5 fantasy points on DK, and 4 on FD). If you think that West Brom will break through this match, then a combination of Phillips and Rondon should be considered on your teams with the edge leaning towards Phillips.
Manchester United Top Plays
Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Forward, $8,800 DK, $12,200 FD – His price on FanDuel makes him easy to fade, but on DraftKings he’s cheaper than expected and has the potential for multiple goals on any given day. On a slate where going after peripherals may be the way to go, Ibrahimovic might be the exception as he’s the one superior talent at forward available on the slate and will end up being close to 50% owned, meaning that a fade could be fatal if he scores goals and you happen to not have him. So choose wisely. Me? I’ll be rostering Ibrahimovic if I can afford him depending on values that show up when lineups come out.
Paul Pogba, Midfielder, $7,500 DK, $9,500 FD – United are expected to win this one, and with the way that Pogba has been playing, there is a strong correlation between his performances and the teams abilities to score goals. Pogba and Mata make up the heart of the United Midfield that will need to break through a Tony Pulis defense that gets more credit than it deserves on defense. Pogba will be an integral part of this attack and could be an underowned goal scorer in some large tourneys.
Manchester United Secondary Plays
David De Gea, Goalkeeper, $5,400 DK, $6,700 FD – De Gea gets the nod as one of my top keepers to target on DraftKings because, much like Randolph, is expected the win and even the clean sheet, so the chance for a minimum of 10 points is quite high. De Gea also has a big chance at some saves because of his status as a road goalkeeper in this matchup.