EPL Grind Down: Gameweek 5
With another week of EPL we have a pretty even split of games with one game on Friday (Go Chelsea!), five games on Saturday and four more on Sunday. The DraftKings big tournaments are slated for Saturday starting at 9am CST. This article is an evolving piece, and right now we have the following stats for each team: Shots per game, Shots on Target per game, Shots Against per game, Shots Against from inside the box per game, crosses per game, and crosses against per game. In addition the table will include the odds for the team to win as well as the record of the team over the last 6 matches as well as the overall record on the season. If you’d like to see any changes or additions to this content please feel free to leave me a message on here or contact me on twitter.
This analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Goals aren’t always easy to predict, but following the trends and making the right choices can lead you to success and will win you money over time.
Hull vs Arsenal
| Hull | Arsenal | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 495 | -165 | ||||||||||
| WWLD | LDWW | ||||||||||
| 2-1-1 | 2-1-1 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.25 | 3.50 | 20.75 | 9.50 | 13.25 | 27.25 | 12.25 | 4.50 | 12.25 | 7.25 | 21.00 | 17.00 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Hernandez, Snodgrass | Snodgrass | Snodgrass, Huddlestone | Walcott, Cazorla, Sanchez | Sanchez, Cazorla, Chambers, Walcott | Cazorla, Sanchez, Walcott, Oxlade-Chamberlain | ||||||
With Hull playing host to Arsenal this week we find ourselves starting the week with a matchup between two very different teams. Hull have been over-performing so far this season with two wins and a draw. This is a team that everybody expected to not get its first win till much later. Arsenal come into this matchup with a rescued point against PSG in the Champions League, and with 2 straight wins in the Premier League. This match is shaping up to be a domination from Arsenal with Hull looking to replicate their week 1 upset of Leicester where they held most of their possession in their own half and took advantage of few attacks to score their two winning goals. I suspect that Arsenal will be stronger at the back than Leicester have been, and although, they may be fatigued, there are some options to consider with Arsenal in this matchup.
Hull Top Plays
None
Hull Secondary Plays
Robert Snodgrass, Midfielder, $6,600 – Snodgrass is one of these players that nobody expected to be able to put up the performances that he’s putting up, yet here he is 4 weeks into the season and he’s got an impressive tally of two games with 25+ fantasy points. The other side of that coin is that when he’s been bad, he’s been real bad with 2 and 5 fantasy points in his other two matches. But, Arsenal have shown some defensive lapses in the past few weeks to start the season and Snodgrass is the type of player that might be able to exploit that.
Eldin Jakupovic, Goalkeeper, $4,300 – Home goalkeeper. Underdog. Check. Check. I seem to gravitate to these type of keepers every week. The reason is the pricing. At $4,300, I’m able to roster the players I like without feeling like I’m truly sacrificing at keeper. He should face close to 10 shots, with possibly 5-6 of them on target. Will he stop all 5 or 6? That’s the chance you have to take, but you know that the supply will be there, and at his price, he’s worth the risk.
Arsenal Top Plays
Alexis Sanchez, Midfielder/Forward, $9,200 – Of course, if you take Jakupovic, I highly recommend not taking Alexis Sanchez on the same team. Sanchez LOVES playing against Hull with several goals against them in recent matches. Sanchez has also gotten on the wrong foot to start the season and will be looking to correct that. This matchup is the perfect opportunity to get his fantasy season in gear.
Arsenal Secondary Plays
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Midfielder/Forward, $5,700 – The Ox is fairly priced at $5.7K and will look to slot into the midfield and continue to provide offensive support. He hasn’t been the best producer for fantasy, but the potential is there, and if you don’t want to pay up for Santi CAzorla or Mesut Ozil, then Oxlade-Chamberlain should be your choice.
Lucas Perez, Forward, $7,000 – If he gets the start in place of Olivier Giroud, then he should get a chance in some of your GPP lineups as he will be expected to lead the line. He’s a quality striker that can take advantage of any defensive slipups, and with a team as heavily favored as Arsenal, you want exposure to the top striker on that team.
Leicester vs Burnley
| Leicester | Burnley | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| -182 | 625 | ||||||||||
| LDWL | LWLD | ||||||||||
| 1-1-2 | 1-1-2 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.75 | 3.75 | 13.25 | 6.25 | 16.75 | 16.25 | 8.00 | 1.75 | 19.00 | 10.00 | 16.00 | 27.25 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Mahrez, Vardy | Mahrez, Drinkwater, Gray | Mahrez, Drinkwater, Gray | Andre Gray, Sam Vokes | Dean Marney, Johann-Berg Gudmundsson | Steven Defour, Matthew Lowton | ||||||
With Leicester coming off an embarrassing loss away from home last weekend, they’ll be looking to get back on track here in the Premier League. They did manage to get a decisive victory in the Champions League on Wednesday against Club Brugge, so they’ll be trying bring that form back home. Burnley on the other hand are actually a spot ahead of Leicester in the table with the same amount of points, but neither team should feel good about their local performances so far. This match could be interesting and would be a good way to see if Leicester can at least beat the teams in the premier league that are expected to finish in the bottom half of the table. Any result but a win would be a disaster for the defending champions.
Leicester Top Plays
Marc Albrighton, Midfielder, $7,500 – Albrighton has returned to the fantasy quality player he used to be last season. In his match he had 7 crosses against Brugge, and right before the international break he managed 12 crosses against Swansea. This week’s matchup against Burnley should produce similar results. He’s the most consistent performer for the defending Champs and should be on your radar when you’re building your lineups.
Leicester Secondary Plays
Riyadh Mahrez, Midfielder/Forward, $9,500 – The penalty kick taker for Leicester is on a roll now with two goals last match, but he doesn’t offen much else in terms of fantasy production outside of a few shots. He’s one of the most talented players in the EPL and will use his skills to create space for his teammates and that results in goal scoring opportunities for the likes of Jamie Vardy (who’s also a good play today, but just as a GPP option). Mahrez is very highly priced which makes it difficult to swallow the pill with him considering the other options available.
Burnley Top Plays
None
Burnley Secondary Plays
Andre Gray, Forward, $7,600 – Gray is a talented forward who can have his positive days. Plenty of analysists are down on him after his mediocre start to the season. He managed just a single shot against Hull City at home, which is not expected from the leading scorer of the Championship last season. I’m certain that Gray will be looking to try to correct that offensive production, and may look to Leicester as a chance to prove himself on the big stage with the spotlight on the defending champs.
Steven Defour, Midfielder, $5,000 – Defour has been on crosses ever since David Jones left the team making him a good play when these guys are at home. Unfortunately with them on the road this week and the lack of true value options, Defour will have to do. If Burnley manage to push the Leicester squad on counter attacks then look for Defour to be a part of that as he tries to help his team pull off the upset through crosses and pressure on the wings as Leicester try to advance forward.
Manchester City vs Bournemouth
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| -359 | 1174 | ||||||||||
| WWWW | LLDW | ||||||||||
| 4-0-0 | 1-1-2 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.00 | 5.25 | 9.75 | 5.25 | 17.25 | 19.50 | 9.75 | 4.00 | 15.75 | 9.75 | 19.50 | 23.00 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Wilson, Daniels, Stanislas | Ibe, Arter, Gradel | King, Fraser, Gradel, Stanislas, Daniels | |||||||||
City have looked tremendous to start the season. They’ve had multiple quality wins and several players have looked incredibly sharp to start the season. They are missing their talisman, Sergio Aguero due to the second of a three match ban. So they’ll start Iheanacho up front. They are undefeated so far this season and look to continue that trend as we go into this matchup with Bournemouth. Bournemouth on the other hand, got their first season win last week against West Brom, and will be looking to sneak away with at least a point here from the Citizens. The match will likely be one sided with City getting the majority of the possession and chances trying to take their tally in the league to 5 wins in 5 matches.
Manchester City Top Plays
Kelechi Iheanacho, Forward, $7,200 – Iheanacho is going to be a favored striker for many people with his high goal to shot ratio. Of course, high goal to shot ratios are never going to be consistent (similar to high 3pt% in the NBA if your name doesn’t start with Splash). There will be a time when the other shoe drops, however, I suspect that the time isn’t now as Iheanacho will try to take advantage of the free space that opens up when you share the pitch with Kevin De Bruyne, Jesus Navas, Raheem Sterling and David Silva.
Kevin De Bruyne, Midfielder/Forward, $9,700 – KDB is one of my favorite players, I try to roster him every week. His price keeps going up though and it keeps making it harder and harder to go all in on him. I expect him to be the top crosser this week, as well as to score or assist on at least one goal. I don’t know how to say this, but I really don’t see how you can build any teams this week without Kevin De Bruyne at least trying to appear on them (of course, in GPPs you can choose to go a different direction)
Manchester City Secondary Plays
Nolito, Forward, $7,500 – Does he get the start this week? It’s a possibility that he does get the start, and if he does, he makes for a great tournament play as he will try to score some goals for this team to prove his skill and to earn a spot as a regular starter. He’s already done great in the spot starts he’s claimed as well as off the bench. His price is a bit high so that’ll keep the ownership low, and with several top teams playing today, he could be a good differential.
Bournemouth Top Plays
None
Bournemouth Secondary Plays
Artur Boruc, Goalkeeper, $4,200 – He’s not as good of a play as Jakupovic, but if you’re going to target goalkeepers that will face plenty of shots, then Boruc is another one that will probably have to do a lot of work in this matchup. I like my keepers to have the chance to save 5 or more shots, but that also means he has the chance to concede about 5 goals putting him in the “very risky” category.
West Brom vs West Ham
| West Brom | West Ham | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds |  | Vegas Odds | ||||||||
| 175 | 189 | ||||||||||
| WLDL | LWLL | ||||||||||
| 1-1-2 | 1-0-3 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.25 | 2.75 | 11.50 | 7.50 | 19.50 | 21.75 | 12.75 | 2.75 | 14.75 | 10.00 | 18.00 | 15.75 |
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Berahino, Rondon, Gardner | Gardner, Rondon, McClean | Brunt, Gardner, McClean, Berahino | Noble, Carroll | Payet, Zarate, Noble, Cresswell, Valencia | Payet, Zarate, Lanzini, Noble, Cresswell, | ||||||
This is a matchup that could produce a lot of fantasy goodness, as both teams appear close on paper and also, the bookmakers seem to think it should be close. And while West Brom aren’t very good offensively, they haven’t shown the type of defensive tenacity that is usually associated with a Tony Pulis led team. West Ham on the other hand have been a disaster at the back, starting with the goalkeeper all the way to the defensive midfielders. This matchup could be what gives West Brom the offensive juice they needed to jumpstart their season having only scored 2 goals, I can see them doubling that total by the end of this week’s matchup.
West Brom Top Plays
Nacer Chadli, Midfielder/Forward, $5,400 – I stand by what I’ve expressed in the past that Nacer Chadli is a $7K+ player and getting him at $5,400 is a good discount. Chadli was a talented part of the offensive machine that was Tottenham last season and he will eventually discover that offensive prowess with West Brom making him a big part of Pulis’ plans in the future. He’s probably more of a secondary option at this point, but due to his depressed price, I’m listing him as a primary here because I think he makes for a good bargain value.
Brendan Galloway, Defender, $3,600 – Galloway has been great as an offensive minded defender in his young career dating back to his time with Everton. He’s another addition on this West Brom team looking to make some changes in order to score more goals. Pulis will always pull his defenders back a bit, but the price on Galloway is good enough to consider. There aren’t many defenders worth taking this week, so Galloway gets a nod in the “Primary targets” section.
Matt Phillips, Midfielder, $4,700 – Phillips has been crossing the heck out of the ball. With 17 crosses in his last two matches, and with West Ham being atrocious defensively, look for him to get 7+ crosses again this time out with West Brom putting pressure on this defense to score some goals. Phillips is so cheap and he’s at home that you almost have to consider him on all your teams.
West Brom Secondary Plays
Solomon Rondon, Forward, $6,500 – He’s the striker on this squad and he had some rest last week after his match with Venezuela the week prior. He’s fully rested and should get 4-5 shots off in this match. Rondon is a skilled forward and West Ham have been terrible defensively (Have I mentioned that already?) that you can afford to spend just $6,500 on a player that should get ample opportunity to score.
West Ham Top Plays
Dimitri Payet, Midfielder, $9,600 – What West Ham sacrifices defensively, the make up for it offensively with Payet leading the way. He takes corners, shots, crosses and scores goals for this team. He hasn’t been the fantasy constant that he was last season, but he has the potential to reach that level of performance every week. Even if he fails to score, he’s still very capable of delivering a double digit performance putting him as a player you can easily roster every week regardless of matchup.
West Ham Secondary Plays
Simone Zaza, Forward, $7,300 – I used Zaza a lot last season in Europa League tournaments and he won me some dollars. Of course, playing in a new league and with higher expectations which can always change things. If he gets the start this week then he should be a viable option and at just $7,300 he can produce just as much as any other forward out there in a match I believe will be fast paced and high scoring as both these teams will look to just attack attack attack.
Everton vs Middlesbrough
| Everton | Middlesbrough | ||||||||||
 | Vegas Odds | Vegas Odds | |||||||||
| -155 | 528 | ||||||||||
| DWWW | DWDL | ||||||||||
| 3-1-0 | 1-2-1 | ||||||||||
| Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm | Sh/Gm | SoT/Game | Shots A/Gm | Shots A in box /Gm | Cross/Gm | Cross A/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.50 | 7.25 | 11.00 | 6.00 | 17.25 | 17.25 | ||||||
| Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | Penalties | Direct Free Kicks | Corners & Indirect Free Kicks | ||||||
| Baines, Barkley, Mirallas | Barkley, Mirallas, Baines, Deulofeu | Mirallas, Baines, Barkley, Deulofeu | Negredo | Ramirez, Downing, Clayton | Downing, Adomah | ||||||
Everton are big favorites in this matchup against the newly promoted club, and for good reason. Everton are undefeated so far this season and boast one of the top teams so far this season. The club has really taken to Ronald Koeman’s strategy and have implemented it in a fine manner. The attacking strategy really boosts the value of full backs, and elevates the midfield to true offensive playmakers. This will come under test in this matchup against a solid defensive squad in Middlesbrough. Brough will grind out results and while they have had mixed results so far early in the season, they will play with defensive discipline and will control the flow of play making it difficult for Everton to do their thing. I expect a hard fought matchup here with little to separate the two clubs when the final whistle blows. Everton have the better chances, and thus might be worth more of a GPP play in all accounts.
Everton Top Plays
Romelu Lukaku, Forward $8,600 – Lukaku is a primary target every time he plays at home. And while the matchup against Middlesbrough is a tough one, I still like him to continue his goal scoring ways. Lukaku reminded everybody how dangerous he is with 9 shots last week with 8 of them on target. He scored a hat-trick and was probably on pace for 5 or 6 goals if he managed to convert some easy looks. He also had two goals for Belgium against Cyprus, so he’s been on fire. Lukaku is a player that can get hot, so look to ride that hot streak while it lasts.
Yannick Bolasie, Midfielder/Forward, $7,400 – This is a team that likes to cross the ball and spread it wide. Bolasie had 11 crosses last time out and I wouldn’t be surprised if he repeats a double digit crossing performance this time. Bolasie was always a talented midfielder with Palace and has resumed that fantasy production with the move to Everton. His price is good enough to warrant a placement on a balanced team for both cash and GPPs. I predict that his ownership won’t be that high given the availability of several more popular options at that price point.
Everton Secondary Plays
Kevin Mirallas, Midfielder/Forward, $5,900 – He’s been the primary corner kick taker, and has been a big part of this offense when it gets going. He plays forward enough that in the Koeman strategy he can be effective and has the potential to score a goal any time. In this matchup I expect that goals will be hard to come by, but he can be a direct beneficiary of the some of the attention that Lukaku is sure to command.
Middlesbrough Top Plays
None
Middlesbrough Secondary Plays
Stewart Downing, Midfielder, $6,500 – As the primary corner kick taker as well as one of the few free kick takers on this squad, Downing is essentially a cash game play anytime Middlesbrough take the field. Unfortunately, I don’t know how effective he will be in this matchup on the road against Everton, so he’s downgraded to a secondary play, which ultimately puts him squarely in the “GPP” section in my mind. I likely won’t be rostering him, but I felt that you, the reader, should be aware of his dramatic haul of 16 crosses last time out against Crystal Palace at home.