EPL Grind Down: Gameweek 7

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2016-10-03 13:59:03

We have a short slate on Saturday with games sprinkled around it on Friday, early Saturday and Sunday. However, this article will just focus on the main Saturday slate that starts with the 9 AM games (central time) and includes just 4 matches to choose from. Despite that short slate, DraftKings has decided to give us a decent prize pool for the $3 and the $27 tournaments. Moreover, we have some major Champions League tournaments coming up next week, so be sure to whet your appetite with some weekend soccer.

This analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Goals aren’t always easy to predict, but following the trends and making the right choices can lead you to success and will win you money over time.

If you’d like to see any changes or additions to this content, please feel free to leave me a message on here or contact me on twitter.

Hull vs Chelsea

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Hull						Chelsea
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				668						-207
				WWLDLL						WWWDLL
				2-1-3						3-1-2
8.83	2.83	23.17	12.00	12.67	23.67	16.67	5.33	8.67	5.00	23.00	15.00
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Hernandez, Snodgrass		Snodgrass		Snodgrass, Huddlestone		Hazard, Oscar, Fabregas, Costa		Willian, Oscar, Fabregas, Matic		Willian, Fabregas

After a surprising 2-0 start, Hull have returned back to their expected performance levels with 1 point in 4 matches. The undermanned, underfunded team’s challenges don’t get any easier this week with a visit from Chelsea on the agenda. Chelsea on the other hand, come into this matchup on a losing streak after losses to both Liverpool and Arsenal and a draw with Swansea proving that Antonio Conte’s squad still need a bit more work to return to Premier League elite contenders once again. This match however shouldn’t be competitive as Chelsea are expected to dominate the side and put the pressure on the home team to get the three points and the win. Hull will rely on their usual counterattacking selves in order to get a win or at least walk away with a solid performance with a draw.

Hull Top Plays

None

Hull Secondary Plays

Robert Snodgrass, Midfielder, $6,800 – Snodgrass will be a regular fixture when Hull are at home as he has a much better record of performance at home than he does on the road. The team has had some rough struggles in the last two matches having lost heavily against two other top tier teams. Chelsea will pose a similar challenge. Snodgrass’ appeal comes from his taking of penalties and corners. Unfortunately, Hull as a team do not get plenty of corners, so that upside is very limited. Snodgrass however does carry the upside of a goal or assist if presented with the opportunity in a fast break against the sometimes-unorganized Chelsea back line.

David Marshall, Goalkeeper, $3,500 – If you’re itching for a cheap goalkeeper, then Marshall is a likely candidate. He will probably face plenty of shots on target, and would be a favorite for the most saves on the day. However, he’s also likely the favorite for the most goals conceded on the day. The reward here may outweigh the risk if you think that Chelsea will fail to score a bunch of goals. However, if you think that Chelsea will score 3 or more goals, then you probably won’t get the points necessary to field a competitive team. I will probably be skipping rostering Marshall as I believe that Chelsea manage to score a few goals.

Chelsea Top Plays

Willian, Midfielder/Forward, $9,000 – At $9K, Willian is very expensive, but he’s worth it. Chelsea should have the opportunity to cross the ball A LOT this weekend against the Tigers. And if they are going on an all out attack as expected, then they should get a decent amount of corners, and Willian takes all those. Corners and crosses would probably give him a floor of at least 8 fantasy points and a few shots push him up to double digits with the potential for more if he scores a goal or gets an assist or two.

Cesc Fabregas, Midfielder, $6,200 – There are lots of options here with Chelsea’s midfielders, and they’re all probably going to decently owned so you won’t be sneaking up on anybody if you pick any of the starting midfielders. I do think that Fabregas should get the start in this one and will probably be involved in the attack. After two bad defeats for the Chelsea squad, Conte will look for the steady hand (foot) of the veteran World Cup winner to try to help his team get a much needed win this weekend. Fabregas would be part of an attack that is expected to get plenty of shots, crosses and possession this weekend on the road.

Chelsea Secondary Plays

Diego Costa, Forward, $9,200 – Costa might be the forward most likely to score this week. And without many other expensive forwards, he’s likely going to be very highly owned, which is what drops him to a Secondary play for me. Anytime I see a forward at a high percentage of ownership, I don’t hesitate to fade him in a large tournament. Of course, if you are building multiple lineups, then you should have some exposure to him. However, if you’re building just a single lineup, then it’s up to you if you want to be aggressive (fade Costa) or conservative (roster Costa).

Marcos Alonso, Defender, $4,000 – Alonso is a new addition to the squad after previously playing for Fiorentina. Alonso has the ability to record crosses for this team and at his price of 4K he’s a viable defensive option if you choose to pay up a little bit for a defender. He’s not guaranteed a start, but if he does, he likely supplants Ivanovic in the starting lineup and with it, he gets a decent attacking role on the team.

Sunderland vs West Brom

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Sunderland						West Brom
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				155						221
				LLDLLL						WLDLWD
				0-1-5						2-2-2
9.67	2.83	18.67	9.83	16.17	20.33	11.00	3.33	13.50	9.00	17.50	22.83
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Borini, Defoe, Watmore		Khazri, Van Aanholt		Khazri, Januzaj, Gooch, van Aanholt		Berahino, Rondon, Gardner		Gardner, Rondon, McClean		Brunt, Gardner, McClean, Berahino

Sunderland enter this matchup with a bit of an injury problem after losing Januzaj and Pienaar last week. They’ll try to cope with a mix of different players, and there are potential value plays there if it weren’t unlikely that they would struggle this match, I would recommend loading up on Sunderland players. Alas, it is Sunderland, and while they are home, they are facing a rejuvenated West Brom team. West Brom have had a surge of offensive production unlike anything they’ve enjoyed under the guidance of Tony Pulis. Last week they ended up in a draw with Stoke on the road, and while this week’s matchup is easier on paper, there is still the question as to whether West Brom will find any offense on the road this week.

Sunderland Top Plays

Jermaine Defoe, Forward, $8,600 – He’s far too expensive to really be highly owned and would be a good alternative for a “spend up” player at forward than Diego Costa. Defoe is coming off a two-goal match in which he managed 31 fantasy points against Crystal Palace. Defoe’s appeal lies in his constant threat of attack, he can score a goal in any situation and often goes under the radar due to his playing on a weakened Sunderland.

Patrick Van Aanholt, Defender, $5,900 – With the injury to Januzaj, Van Aanholt should take over the corner kick duties for the team. This is the first time in a while that I remember Sunderland being a favorite and playing at home, Van Aanholt should have the opportunity to record a number of crosses and corners for this team. Van Aanholt is slightly more expensive than we like to pay for a defender, however, his chances of delivering a decent stat line are very high thus making him a good candidate for either cash or GPP teams.

Sunderland Secondary Plays

Duncan Watmore, Forward, $5,900 – Watmore should get the start this match with the injuries that Sunderland sustained. He came on for Steve Pienaar last time out and played 75 minutes. He did manage 42 touches in that span and without Januzaj this time out, he should record a few more. Watmore got most of his touches in the opponents final third making him a candidate for goal scoring opportunities as they present themselves. His price is low enough to make me consider him in both cash and GPP.

West Brom Top Plays

Matt Phillips, Midfielder, $5,600 – Over the last few weeks, there was confusion as to who would be the primary corner kick taker and open play crosser on this team. And in looking at the results and the game flow of the last few weeks, it appears that Phillips retains his spot as that man. Phillips takes the majority of corners for this squad, and he takes whatever open play crosses they decide to go after. Now Sunderland are a bit of a taller team at the back, so Tony Pulis will likely not push for too many crosses, however, that leaves Phillips open for more creative play in the attacking third. At just $5,600, Phillips makes for a great underowned option that should reach double digits.

West Brom Secondary Plays

Solomon Rondon, Forward, $7,400 – With two goals in his last two games, Rondon makes for an excellent option at forward and would be an easy choice for a second forward on a GPP lineup. He takes a good number of shots and gets lots of touches in the opponents final third.

Watford vs Bournemouth

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
Watford						Bournemouth
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				137						239
				DLLWWL						LLDWLW
				2-1-3						2-1-3
10.00	4.00	15.67	8.33	15.50	25.50	9.50	3.17	16.00	9.33	17.33	21.17
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Deeney, Ighalo		Abdi		Watson, Abdi, Capoue, Holebas		Wilson, Daniels, Stanislas		Ibe, Arter, Gradel		King, Fraser, Gradel, Stanislas, Daniels

This matchup between these two teams appears to be very even, but it does favor the home squad slightly. The thought is that when two middle of the table clubs play each other, that the home team tends to outperform the visitors. We saw it recently when Watford visited Burnley and lost 0-2, or when Manchester United visited Watford and lost 3-1 (relax United fans, I’m kidding, mostly). This will be Watford’s first match at home against an opponent who does not fall in the “Elite Big Spenders” category, so it will be a chance for them to get a win. Bournemouth on the other hand, have not looked very good away from home this season. They only have 4 goals total to their name, and only one of those came on the road. They have conceded in every away match. On the other hand, they are coming off a spectacular week in which they beat Everton at home, so it will be interesting to see if the positive results translate to this week or not.

Watford Top Plays

Nordin Amrabat, Midfielder/Forward, $4,900 – He’ll be slotted as a winger in this matchup if he gets the start, but he’s listed as a midfielder/forward on DK. Amrabat has been delivering corners for this team since he’s come into the starting lineup and he does have the upside of scoring or assisting on goals. In a match in which the home team is expected to win, taking a shot at a cheap player could come in handy especially in a short slate like this one.

Troy Deeney, Midfielder/Forward, $8,300 – People looking at Deeney’s raw numbers will probably be turned off by him as he only has 8 shots on the season, but looking a bit closer, he’s had all 8 of them in the last 4 weeks, and if you dive even deeper you’ll see he’s been more effective than Ighalo. Watching the matches it’s obvious that Deeney has figured out how to go through the EPL defenses, and that gives him a slight edge over Ighalo who seems to find himself pulling back to help on defense more often than his front line counterpart. Deeney is also on penalty kicks which gives him a bit more upside.

Watford Secondary Plays

Etienne Capoue, Midfielder, $6,600 – Capoue seems like a trap. Until Monday’s loss to Burnley, he hadn’t fallen below double digit fantasy points once. However, he’s also scored 4 goals in 5 matches prior to that day. He seems like the type of player that is goal dependent and if you think that this team scores a goal or two, he might be involved. He’s at his highest price yet, and will probably be decently owned by those who just look at the box score. Capoue has potential, but I suspect his performance from now on will be more sporadic than it has been. I doubt we see another run of 4 goals in 6 matches for the rest of the season.

Jose Holebas, Defender, $4,600 – His price has risen recently, but he carries the same floor/ceiling as Amrabat, they each operate on a different side of the pitch with Holebas roaming down the left flank and Amrabat down the right flank. Holebas at $4.9K on defense makes for a tough choice as there aren’t many value options, so do you pay up there? That is the reason he’s a secondary option here.

Bournemouth Top Plays

None

Bournemouth Secondary Plays

Junior Stanislas, Midfielder, $6,500 – As one of the top midfielders on the team Stanislas carries a lot of responsibility as a play maker on the right side. He partners up with defender Adam Smith (Defender, $4,900) to create opportunities for the team on the right side, and Stanislas seems to be the predominant crosser on the squad in those cases. I Consider him one of the more sneaky plays on the day as I think that Bournemouth manage to hold possession in the middle part of this game and could easily rack up some points in a series of attacks.

Callum Wilson, Forward, $7,000 – You could also consider the other full back Charlie Daniels (Defender, $5,000) for his penalty kick upside, but his downside is he doesn’t score open play goals. Wilson however could find himself on the back end of one of these crosses that Stanislas or Daniels could deliver and he can end up on the score sheet that way. If you’re playing a GPP, then Wilson can be one of your “go for broke” plays that try to get you to the top of the leaderboard.

West Ham vs Middlesbrough

Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
West Ham						Middlesbrough
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				118						273
				LWLLLL						DWDLLL
				1-0-5						1-2-3
14.50	2.67	14.17	10.33	21.00	15.00	8.67	2.17	14.33	8.83	18.33	20.17
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Noble, Carroll		Payet, Zarate, Noble, Cresswell, Valencia		Payet, Zarate, Lanzini, Noble, Cresswell,		Ramirez, Downing		Ramirez, Downing		Downing, Ramirez, Friend

West Ham are in dire need of a result. The last few matches have been rough as the Hammers have lost four games in a row while conceding at least 3 goals in each and 14 in that same span. Steven Bilic is under fire for a result, and the players want to get a good one. Right now, they’re sitting in the relegation zone and there is a big risk they stay there if they don’t improve their performances soon. They face newly promoted Middlesbrough who come into the EPL with a reputation for being defensively sound. So far this season they’ve got 5 points off 6 matches, but have lost their last 3 with a combined score of 7-3, and face a desperate team on the road. Things don’t look good for them here, and I don’t suspect they’ll win this match. However, I do think that Middlesbrough have a chance to score at least a goal or two against a very weak West Ham team.

West Ham Top Plays

Dimitri Payet, Midfielder, $10,100 – Even when the team has completely sucked, Payet has been putting up some fantasy numbers. He’s hit double digit fantasy points every week with the exception of the opening weekend against Chelsea. And while he hasn’t scored any goals, he’s still reached 25 and 23 points against Watford and West Brom earlier this month. Payet is in a good position to score his first goal this season against Middlesbrough, and if he doesn’t, he might be ok getting double digit crosses and some shots off which would be sufficient to get him to some decent value.

West Ham Secondary Plays

Michail Antonio, Midfielder/Forward, $8,400 – Paying up for the two West Ham players might be route a lot of people choose to go, but it’s far from guaranteed production. I do believe that West Ham will continue their chase for goals this week against Middlesbrough. It helps that he has Payet on his team to set him up for some solid headers.

Middlesbrough Top Plays

Stewart Downing, Midfielder, $6,700 – Going against a weak West Ham defense, it’ll be very tempting to load up on Middlesbrough. However, the risk here is that this is not a team that is known for scoring goals. They will get some possession though with Stewart Downing leading the way. He’s the main set piece taker and corner kick taker. Downing also regularly gets the most touches of anybody on this team’s front 6 putting him in the unique situation to be involved in any goals if Middlesbrough does manage to get one in.

Middlesbrough Secondary Plays

Alvaro Negredo, Forward, $7,800 – If Downing should get a lot of crosses and has the potential for an assist or two against the very open and porous defense that is West Ham, then Negredo should get a chance at some decent output this week. Negredo takes a good portion of the shots on target for Middlesbrough. He’s a good GPP option this week, but not necessarily someone I will have plenty of exposure to due to the low floor that he carries.