EPL Grind Down: Matchweek 11

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2017-11-04 17:25:24

With another international break on the horizon, teams are gearing up for the break and will be hoping for a positive note to send their players off on. The slate on Saturday features just a single top six team with Liverpool playing on the road against West Ham. This leaves us with a five-match slate with just minor teams to pick from outside of Liverpool.

The expectation will be that salaries will be real easy to build lineups around and thus, the skill will be in identifying winning teams and securing the few goalscorers on the slate.

So, to start our research, I’ll look at the normal section we usually use to identify the basics. The odds.

Matchweek 11 Odds

Top Six Teams

With just a single top six team in play, this section will be rather short. But before we dismiss them on the road, let’s have a look at Liverpool.

Liverpool

When the Reds visit West Ham United this weekend they’ll be the late game making an interesting late swap opportunity. The first step towards success will be ensuring that you place Liverpool players in the utility spot in your lineups on DraftKings in order to avoid the potential late game squad rotation.

That said, Liverpool are coming off a week where they’ve won two matches without conceding any goals. There will be some changes in set piece duties. Salah is no longer going to take penalties after missing the spot kick last week against Huddersfield. Klopp has hinted that Sturridge will be taking these shots in the future. That would imply that Sturridge will be getting a start this week. He’s likely to be flanked by Salah and Firmino. Mane and Coutinho are both doubts going into the weekend. When Firmino starts on the wings he is less effective from a fantasy perspective. In fact, even if he’s started in the center of the front trio, he’s been less effective overall with very few opportunities that truly threatened the opponent’s goal. The likely players to make some noise here are going to Salah or Sturridge. You could also look to Alberto Moreno as a full back or to James Milner who seems to have inched his way back into cash game consideration if he’s going to continue taking set pieces and crosses and corners (he’s averaged 13.5 crosses in his last two matches totaling 25 and 16 DK points in his last two).

Their opponent, West Ham aren’t going to put up much of a fight, though the match does feature the highest over/under on the slate and Liverpool aren’t known for their defensive prowess. That said, I could see a shot on some West Ham midfielders/forward to try to get the odd goal in a tournament setting. Chicharito or Lanzini can go a long way to building a team that can make it far since their ownership will be low compared to their potential impact. Over the last two weeks, both Lanzini and Antonio(Antonio is out this week) took the bulk of the team crosses. The team has had very weak results however and they may be looking for ways to adjust things in order to avoid further losses. They currently sit in 16th place in the table and will likely end up losing this match to a strong Liverpool squad, further hurting their team, and the longevity of their manager, Slaven Bilic in his current position.

Set Pieces:

Liverpool: Milner (corners), Sturridge (penalties), Salah, Firmino, Milner (Free Kicks)
West Ham: Cresswell, Lanzini (corners, free kicks), Noble (penalties)

The Non-Top 6

The non top-6 teams that are not playing top six teams will comprise this section, as generally, we handle matches that don’t involve top teams differently than we would every other match. This week the majority of our slate comes from here so it will be critical to analyze these games correctly as they will be the difference maker in our lineups.

Swansea vs Brighton

This matchup is a tough one to break down. On one end, Brighton have eight points in their last six matches and are coming off an impressive three match run where they beat West Ham at home 3-0, and drew with Southampton, and Everton 1-1 in the two weeks sandwiching that big win. On the other hand, the home team Swansea just had their forward, Tammy Abraham, called up to the England team for the first time and he currently sits at 4 goals on the season. Despite all these things, this screams a potential low scoring affair with the oddsmakers setting it at a low 2.0 over/under. I expect a 1-1 draw or a narrow 1-0 win for either side. That said, we can focus on the set piece takers for each team as the main draws.

Set Piece Takers

Swansea: Tom Carroll (corners/crosses/Free Kicks), Abraham (penalties), Bony (penalties)
Brighton: Gross/Knockaert (corners/crosses/Freekicks), Murray (penalties/Free Kicks).

Huddersfield vs West Bromwich Albion

This is another match where there aren’t a lot of goals expected from either team as the oddsmakers predict it to be under 2 goals. Moreover, between these teams they combine to average 1.6 goals a game making this match a tough one to expect a lot of goals from either team. In their biggest scoring matches, both teams were able to step up their offense against the Manchester teams, but I don’t expect either of them to replicate any offensive prowess in this one. The most I can see is a 2-1 decision for either team. Neither team produces many shots either, limiting their potential fantasy output leaving the most plays on here as tournament options only, except for the set piece takers.

Set Piece Takers

Hudderfield: Aaron Mooy (corners/crosses/Penalties), Lowe (penalties), Ince (corners/crosses)
West Bromwich Albion: Gibbs (crosses), Chadli (corners/free kicks/penalties), Brunt (corners/free kicks)

Bournemouth vs Newcastle

When Bournemouth host Newcastle this weekend they’ll be hosting as a team in the relegation zone, meanwhile, the visitors are currently sitting in 9th place and comfortably challenging for a strong position in the table. Newcastle have played well in recent weeks with solid performances from Ayoze Perez, Matt Ritchie and Christian Atsu. However, the biggest question is whether any of these performances will translate to fantasy performances from the toons. So far, it is rare that this team produces solid fantasy production, however, with the lack of fantasy options this week, you may find yourself turning to Newcastle.

I personally would not turn to the Toons since they are on the road, but Bournemouth don’t inspire a lot of confidence in their ability to deliver solid results. They did get some good results against Leicester and Brighton at home earlier in the season. Bournemouth have a few questions on their fitness with Stanislas, Ibe and King all with a big questionable tag next to their names making us question whether there is anybody we can trust on that team for cash or tournaments. Jermain Defoe has just a single goal for the team, but beyond that has not performed up to the standard that the team has requested. The team has just six goals on the season in 10 matches and I don’t think they’ll be adding much to their tally this weekend.

Set Piece Takers

Bournemouth: Stanislas (corners), Arter/Fraser (Free Kicks), Defoe, King (Penalties)
Newcastle: Ritchie (corners/free kicks/penalties), Dwight Gayle (penalties), Jonjo Shelvey (Free Kicks)

Southampton vs Burnley

Southampton are a team that I can’t trust for fantasy. They’ve been disappointing in all facets this season, fantasy, real-life results and entertainment. Frankly, I’d love for the team to be relegated so they can scatter all their players elsewhere and have them come back in a couple of years to the EPL revamped as a non-boring squad. But alas, they’re too good to be relegated and too boring to really make any mark on fantasy this season. In a matchup with Burnley, they are the second biggest favorite on the day, which might trick some players into rostering them. However, I would heavily advise not taking chances on the team in cash lineups and instead focusing on tournaments only. The team can get some performances from Gabbiadini, Davis, Ward-Prowse, or either of the full backs. Their keeper is subpar and not one I would trust.

As for Burnley, they are currently sitting 7th in the table and seem to have a solid season going for them so far. I don’t believe they’ll finish the season this high in the table, but they are capable of putting up a fight. Last season they showed the ability to get results on the road, and while they haven’t gotten similar results on the season, they are still sitting at 8 points from five away matches tying them with teams such as Manchester United and ahead of teams such as Liverpool and Arsenal. The oddsmakers seem to think they’ll meet their match this week, but I tend to think they’ll come away from the south coast with some points and will stun the Saints on their way to a 2 goal performance.

Set Piece Takers

Southampton: Ward Prowse (Corners/Free Kicks), Tadic (Free Kicks/Corners), Austin/Gabbiadini/Tadic (Penalties)
Burnley: Brady (corners/Free Kicks), Wood (penalties)

Cash Plays

For a player to be cash eligible, they need to do a few things. First, they should be a heavy crossing/shooting/chance creator type player. If a player fills all three buckets then they are absolutely in cash territory for me for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The table below will display the top 50 crossing players on the season so far and below I’ll have a few one-liner thoughts on a few important ones.

Robbie Brady, Burnley, $6,700 DK, $7,000 FD – With Burnley being on the road and the oddsmakers considering them a sizeable underdog, Brady may end up being a tad bit underowned. However, he’s shown the ability to rack up the fantasy points and his crossing numbers on the season are excellent.

James Milner, Liverpool, $8,100 DK, $7,000 FD – His increase in crossing statistics and overall contribution in the last two weeks makes him one of the hottest cash game options this week. With Liverpool being the team that everybody will be stacking, Milner is likely at the top of the list for all the sharp players.

Pascal Gross, Brighton, $7,200 DK, $8,000 DK – Brighton have an easier matchup than Burnley and Gross has similar potential to Brady. What Gross brings to the table is also direct involvement with the majority of the goal scoring for the Seagulls this season. Expect that to continue with a decent floor this week to boot.

Tom Carroll, Swansea, $6,800 DK, $7.500 FD – Since Sigurdsson left for Everton, Carroll has picked up the responsibilities of whipping the ball into the box. The team hasn’t had much success finding the end of these crosses, but Carroll hasn’t stopped sending them in. He’s creating chances and emerging as the top play maker on this squad in their new look. I expect that this is another week where he’ll put up solid numbers.

Cedric Soares, Southampton, $5,900 DK, $6,000 FD – I don’t consider Soares a must play as I don’t like spending up on defenders that don’t consistently deliver 10+DK/20+FD points. But if you wanted a consistent player from the second highest favorite of the night, then Soares may be that guy as he does provide some crosses and forward playmaking. The concern is that Southampton don’t create a lot of chances and thus it limits his upside severely.

Tournament Plays

Of course, everybody is a solid tournament play, as anybody can score a goal so long as they start the match. And even players that don’t start can come in off the bench and score a goal, but they usually only have 10-30 minutes to do so as opposed to 90. I don’t advocate taking flyers on players that don’t start as it is a losing strategy more often than not. That said, there is a method to select the players that are most likely to score goals, and thus marking themselves as tournament options. The players highlighted in this section will be players that take plenty of shots, convert several into goals, and get a lot of touches in the penalty area.

Mohamed Salah, Liverpool, $10,800 DK, $9,500 FD – The Liverpool forward has quickly emerged as one of their most important players in this stretch as he has 4 goals in the Champions League and 5 goals in the Premier League. He’s active on and off the ball and while he’s going to lose set piece duties, he still has the confidence of Jurgen Klopp and will continue to start going forward. Moreover, the team has a few injury concerns with Mane and Coutinho making Salah almost a sure thing in the attack.

Tammy Abraham, Swansea, $7,300 DK, $8,500 FD – He has one of the highest conversion rates and his team he got a callup this week to the England national team. He’s going to want to leave his club on a high note and I suspect he’ll score a goal this week.

Chris Wood, Burnley, $5,100 DK, $7,500 FD – Southampton tend to control the midfield and force teams to take quick shots when they’re on the break. This style of play doesn’t lend itself to a lot of excitement. Burnley will try to disrupt the flow of play and make some noise in the match. Their striker Chris Wood is very capable of making a splash or three in this team’s line and making the defense pay for any mistakes they can (and probably will) commit. The New Zealand striker missed Monday’s match with Newcastle, but he should be back for this one according to manager Sean Dyche.

Daniel Sturridge, Liverpool, $8,000 DK, $8,000 FD – Expect Liverpool to be heavily owned, and for good reason. Most fantasy owners will select two or three Liverpool players and fit some pieces around them. One of the more popular players selected will be Sturridge and for good reason. Taking him in your lineup gets you cheaper exposure to the player who will play closest to the opponents goal for roughly 65-80 minutes. Sturridge can score goals in a hurry if the supply is there and with Salah, Milner and Firmino supporting, he may get that necessary supply this week.

Joselu, Newcastle, $7,000 DK, $9,000 FD – Nine games in and Joselu has scored 2 goals. I suspect he’ll finish the season around 7-9 goals and they will probably come in opportunities such as this one. At home against Bournemouth, who have struggled, Joselu should end up taking 2-4 shots and could potentially have one of them find the back of the net. His ability to convert opportunities to shots isn’t the best, but neither is the opposing defense.

Goalkeeper Breakdown

This is a tough slate for goalkeepers. Normally I focus on home underdogs, this week there are several goalkeepers that stand out as good plays. I hesitate to recommend a single one as this week, more than others there are no sure things. While goalkeepers feel random, I recommend building a lineup you are comfortable with, then plugging in a goalkeeper that fits the salary.

Defender Breakdown

When it comes to defenders, there are two options. Get a full back, in which case you’d have to pay up most of the time. Or go super cheap and get central defenders that join the attack on set pieces. One way to filter out this second group is by searching for defenders who take headers and those that take set pieces. The tables below includes the top defenders with touches in the final third, and then top 10 defenders with header attempts on the season so far.