EPL Grind Down: Matchweek 15

Welcome back to another week of the EPL with Gameweek 15. This week we are on short rest. Teams played in the midweek contests and are entering the toughest part of the schedule. Teams that make it through the fixture schedule leading into the new year will end up in better position and we usually see our champions emerging as clear-cut favorites in this period. Right now, it looks like Manchester City will keep their pole position with the remaining top teams battling it out for spots two through six.

Saturday’s main slate has seven matches on our slate with Arsenal hosting Manchester United being the late game. We start this week as we have every week: with the odds.

Odds

Home Odds Away Odds
Chelsea -385 Newcastle United 1300
Everton -137 Huddersfield 457
Leicester -126 Burnley 427
Stoke -106 Swansea 370
Watford 438 Tottenham -146
West Brom 155 Crystal Palace 224
Brighton 658 Liverpool -202
Arsenal 146 Manchester United 211
Bournemouth 203 Southampton 163
Manchester City -840 West Ham 1850

Top Six Teams

With four of the top six teams playing this weekend and having two of them playing each other in a late game, I’m inclined to believe that the section following this one will be more important.

Tottenham

Tottenham take a trip to the surprising Watford this week in a match that should be an interesting contest between two teams that are currently in 7th and 8th place in the table. Tottenham just had a rough three game stretch where they’ve only managed 1 point in three matches through a draw with West Brom at home through a late Harry Kane goal. That draw was sandwiched between two losses to Leicester and Arsenal. These less than stellar performances were brought on by squad rotation and Tottenham focusing their efforts on the Champions League where they are undefeated in their group that includes Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund.

Over their last six matches across all competitions, Tottenham have scored eight goals and have conceded seven goals while only managing a single clean sheet against Crystal Palace. The team is not very deep and thus rely heavily on a small group of players. The opponent this week is Watford who have won just two of their last six matches but two of the three preceding this one. They did put up a good fight against Manchester United last time out and came out 4-2 losers. They’ll look to put up a better fight this time around. Their key players played less than 90 minutes last time with Gray, Deeney and Prodl not playing a full match presumably to prepare themselves for this weekend encounter.

With Watford being the home team, you can expect that they will see players such as Richarlison play a big role. They’ll also have players such as Doucoure, and Deeney putting the efforts and shots on the opponents target to try to score goals. Watford managed 12 shots against United last time out while clawing back from an early 0-3 hole. Ultimately they didn’t manage to come back from the hole but the team did represent themselves well.

Tottenham could come away as winners in this one, but they’re on the road, so Watford has a good chance to get away with some points in this game. This of course will put them in a vulnerable position against Tottenham and thus will elevate their defensive players such as Prodl (on FanDuel, $5,500), and their goalkeeper Huerlho Gomes, ($5,000 FD, $3,800 DK). For tournaments you can go with Richarlison for Watford or with Kane or Son for Tottenham.

Christian Eriksen would be a decent selection for cash, but being on the road I wouldn’t expect him to perform at the level you would need in cash games compared to his expected performance at home. For his price you can still get better performances elsewhere.

Liverpool

Going into the season nobody knew what to make of the Liverpool front line as the team seemed stacked enough to make none of the fantasy options appealing for daily fantasy. Except we ended up with Mo Salah and his sixteen goals across all competitions so far this season. Salah has been on a hot streak with a brace in four of his last nine matches and a goal or assist in eight of his last nine.

For this match Liverpool are on the road against a Brighton team that has nine points in their last six matches. However, all their results came against weaker opponents (the type they would have to perform well against in order to guarantee a stay in the premier league for another season). This time however, they really don’t stand a chance against this Liverpool squad that should steamroll through them with little trouble putting little doubt in the outcome.

I would heavily avoid all Brighton players and maybe try to take some players from Liverpool to fit my team around. The focus in tournaments should be on Salah, though he doesn’t do a lot of periphery actions that result in DFS friendly points. Coutinho would make a good cash game option as well as for tournaments as he can provide crosses and shots as well as assists and goals. Mane and Firmino make good tournament options as well.

The Liverpool full backs make good options as well, but if you’re spending up for the expensive midfielders and forwards, it will be hard to gather up enough salary for high priced defenders.

Arsenal vs Manchester United

Arsenal lost Lacazette in the midweek against Huddersfield and instead will have Welbeck, Giroud or Sanchez starting as a lone striker in a match against a United team that just got an emotional boost with Pogba and Ibrahimovic returning from long term injuries. The match should be a very entertaining one for the fans, but for DFS I do question if it will have many goals.

Looking at the numbers for both these teams when they play other top six teams this season, Arsenal conceded four to Liverpool and three to Manchester City, but scored two on Tottenham, while also scoring five goals in the midweek. Manchester United however play a very conservative approach on the road against top teams. Jose Mourinho is very good at forcing his style of play against opponents and in this one I would expect that Arsene Wenger will try to match him. This would likely end with both teams failing to register many fantasy points on DK with the central midfielders racking up points on FanDuel. Expect the likes of Pogba and Ramsey to get 30+ points on FD with Rashford and maybe Ozil expected to lead the cash points on DK.

Overall, I will likely ignore this match in favor of other teams where I can get more reliable players/options that would provide a high floor for cash games. Even for tournaments, if Mourinho parks the bus as he’s apt to do in big games, that leaves many high priced forwards and mids with limited fantasy appeal.

The Non-Top 6

The non top-six teams that are not playing top six teams will comprise this section, as generally, we handle matches that don’t involve top teams differently than we would every other match. This week almost half of our slate comes from here so it will be critical to analyze these games correctly as they will be the difference maker in our lineups.

Everton vs Huddersfield

Everton got their biggest win of the season in the midweek scoring 4 goals against West Ham with Rooney scoring a hat-trick including a shot from his own half that was probably the best goal of the season so far. Everton do have their new coach Big Sam, and they will presumably improve their chances at moving up into the top half of the table. Huddersfield are likely going to suffer because of this and with this match on the road on short rest after a 5-0 demolition at the hands of Arsenal, they may be in line for more of the same here.

This match does feature plenty of viable fantasy options specifically on the Everton side, ranging from Gylfi Sigurdsson, Oumar Niasse (Or Dominic Calvert-Lewin, whoever gets the start), Jonjo Kenny, even Wayne Rooney could have back to back super games though I would highly doubt that he would get the start this game after playing 85 minutes in the midweek fixture, especially with Europa League on the schedule next week and Everton looking to come away with a face-saving win on the road against Apollon Limassol of Cyprus.

For Huddersfield, I don’t expect many of their fantasy options to take flight here, but for tournaments, you could take a gander at their front line hoping for a goal or two that could sway the match in their favor. In which case, Laurent Depoitre and Aaron Mooy would be the most likely candidates for that achievement.

I would not take either team’s goalkeeper with any confidence.

Leicester vs Burnley

Leicester are coming into their own now. This is a matchup between two teams in the top ten in the table and both of them have had good runs in recent weeks. Combined they have just three defeats in their last 12 matches with two of those defeats coming against Manchester City. Leicester has wins against Everton and Tottenham and Burnley has wins against Chelsea, and Everton. More than that, Burnley have a superb road record this season having lost just a single match against Manchester City, while earning points at Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool, and Southampton. The matchup with Leicester should prove very entertaining.

In recent weeks, Leicester have been pushing for more attack in matches that they feel they can win. We saw it against Stoke and West Ham on the road, and against Tottenham at home in the midweek. Players such as Demarai Gray, Riyadh Mahrez and Marc Albrighton have played better and provided more shape to the team in the midfield and as a result they are getting more touches in the opponent’s half and creating more chances. The team doesn’t seem to be as willing to give up possession against weaker opponents as they once did and that has made the likes of Mahrez and Gray appealing for DFS.

Their opponent, Burnley, are coming into this match very high in the table and if they can make it through the following few weeks unscathed, could start to feel very good about their place in the table at the end of the season. Burnley give up possession to their opponents. In fact the dilemma this week is that both teams prefer to not hold onto the ball and refuse to play possession football, focusing more on creating meaningful possessions and making each touch count.

The likes or Robbie Brady excel for this team as he can provide crosses and chances created for his teammates. Ashley Barnes and Chris Wood have also been good options on offense as they can score goals against anybody. While Leicester does feature one of the best goalkeepers in the Premier League, the defense surrounding him is average and thus puts pressure on Schmeichel to make lots of saves. This in turn creates opportunities for opponents to pad their stats with shots.

This match does seem like a good opportunity for a game stack. The prices here are going to be lower than the rest of the matches with players that you can bring in that have a good chance to score goals or at least be heavily part of the attack.

Stoke vs Swansea

Swansea have a few players that I really like and want to see succeed. Tammy Abraham, Renato Sanchez, and Wilfried Bony to name a few. However, the team seems unable to maximize the potential of Sanchez as he seems to be having the worst year of his young career so far. Abraham has converted a few goals in spots where I picked him to step it up, and Bony is yet to score a goal this season and has just one shot TOTAL in his last two matches despite starting both of them. Jordan Ayew is another player that should get opportunities this week. But Swansea really aren’t a team I want to try to pick from this week, especially in a matchup at Stoke.

Speaking of Stoke, they have just two wins in their last thirteen matches across all competitions which included a loss to Liverpool in the midweek with Salah scoring two goals off the bench in 23 minutes. The team does appear to have a chance to fix things in a matchup with Swansea this week. They had some squad rotation in the midweek and the likes of Choupo-Moting and Kevin Wimmer returning after a rest in the midweek. Shaqiri is still just a tournament option for this team, but this is one of those weeks where I have a gut feeling that he scores a goal off a free kick on right side of the box. Peter Crouch should also be in play for tournaments if he gets the start.

I wouldn’t expect either of these teams to shoot the ball a whole lot making the fantasy prospects of the goalkeepers very dull. The full backs on both sides are plenty cheap so they make some nice filler spots for DFS on DraftKings should you need a cheap defender to round out your roster. For defenders I roughly look for 2x to reach value, so a $4K defender is expected to get me 8 points and I’ll be happy with that.

Overall, this isn’t a match that I’ll focus too much attention on and will instead try to use it for filler plays.

West Brom vs Crystal Palace

Another matchup between two teams that have switched managers as West Brom have their new manager Alan Pardew who is likely to line up with a four man defense against a Crystal Palace squad that have Christian Benteke back from a long term absence. The match does appear to be a bit of an unknown and this is where we can get an edge on competition if we can identify trends that should allow one player to get an edge over another.

Looking at West Brom, they are now managed by Alan Pardew who is a very different type of manager from Tony Pulis. I expect that West Brom will morph into a counter attacking team relying on the likes of Jay Rodriguez, Allan Nyom and Salomon Rondon to create chances and get creative. The team has some players that have abilities, but they were very hampered by Pulis’ desire for the team to keep its shape at all times and for defensive discipline. The task for Pardew will be to create a faster paced team that will draw more crowds to the games and get the team back to winning. I expect that in their first match with him they’ll play a 4-3-3 with the wings being particularly important to spread play out and open the pitch for Rondon and Jay Rodriguez to make some noise. So far, everybody is a tournament option only until we can see some trends from his management style to determine the cash eligible players.

As for Crystal Palace, Zaha and Benteke should begin forming a partnership again that should lead to some goals for the two. I think this week they’ll realize that potential and as such I have no problem with taking Zaha in cash games, but leaving Benteke for tournaments only because of his inability to get fantasy points in any way outside of goals.

Cash Plays

For a player to be cash eligible, they need to do a few things. First, they should be a heavy crossing/shooting/chance creator type player. If a player fills all three buckets then they are absolutely in cash territory for me for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The table below will display the top 50 crossing players on the season so far and below I’ll have a few one-liner thoughts on a few important ones.

Player Name Team Opponent Crosses Corners Chances Created Open Play Crosses Shots
Brady BUR LEI 115 62 24 43 23
Ritchie NEW CHE 108 55 25 46 30
Groß BHA LIV 92 40 31 44 11
De Bruyne MCI WHU 90 50 43 48 31
Eriksen TOT WAT 89 50 32 39 38
Cresswell WHU MCI 87 20 13 55 6
Mooy HUD EVE 85 45 21 34 10
Holebas WAT TOT 82 33 15 38 8
Shaqiri STK SWA 77 41 28 22 26
Cabaye CPL WBA 70 49 23 9 19
Townsend CPL WBA 69 15 22 44 22
Sigurdsson EVE HUD 67 28 20 14 20
Davies TOT WAT 66 22 25 46 11
Cedric SOT BOU 65 0 11 64 13
Albrighton LEI BUR 64 18 13 47 7
Tom Carroll SWA STK 61 27 16 17 11
Fabregas CHE NEW 59 62 40 16 16
Phillips WBA CPL 59 16 11 37 12
Trippier TOT WAT 59 21 21 39 3
Olsson SWA STK 57 0 5 57 4
Knockaert BHA LIV 55 18 15 29 15
Daniels BOU SOT 53 9 13 50 8
Bertrand SOT BOU 52 20 14 34 11
Tadic SOT BOU 50 7 22 44 18
Rashford MUN ARS 48 21 13 26 30
Ward-Prowse SOT BOU 48 26 11 15 6
Valencia MUN ARS 46 0 6 46 9
Baines EVE HUD 45 13 12 30 5
Lanzini WHU MCI 44 29 17 7 15
Milner LIV BHA 44 22 14 27 11
Alonso CHE NEW 43 0 10 43 26
Young MUN ARS 43 6 9 35 11
Moreno LIV BHA 43 3 12 39 10
Mahrez LEI BUR 42 23 14 15 28
Mata MUN ARS 42 19 16 23 5
Silva MCI WHU 41 22 31 22 27
Mkhitaryan MUN ARS 41 23 24 21 13
Ibe BOU SOT 41 18 13 25 13
Cleverley WAT TOT 41 19 18 18 11
Zappacosta CHE NEW 41 0 4 41 8
Stephen Ward BUR LEI 40 0 9 40 4
Femenía WAT TOT 40 0 13 40 4
Xhaka ARS MUN 39 39 14 6 29
Naughton SWA STK 39 0 9 39 4
Solly March BHA LIV 38 6 7 33 10
Nyom WBA CPL 38 0 5 38 2
Masuaku WHU MCI 38 0 5 38 2
Oxlade-Chamberlain LIV BHA 37 7 13 30 17

Robbie Brady, Burnley, Midfielder, $7,700 DK, $6,500 FD – He’s leading the league in crosses and gets most of them off corners. For a team that relies on set pieces and counter attacks, that puts him in great positions to get those fantasy points week in and week out.

Christian Eriksen, Tottenham, Midfielder, $9,100 DK, $9,000 FD – For his price Eriksen might be a tad too expensive, but some may argue that he’s the most reliable option for DFS this week with a lot of crosses, shots and chances created, he can fill the role for both cash and tournaments on all sites and formats. Tottenham need a result here despite being on the road. I don’t think he is necessary for cash as I Think there is a decent chance he doesn’t reach his potential if Watford bring their A-game and with the Spurs being tired on account of the busy schedule.

Xherdan Shaqiri, Stoke, Midfielder, $8,800 DK, $9,000 FD – He’s priced as high as I’ve ever seen him, but Shaqiri has potential this week for a goal or two along with crosses and a high floor. He’s a conceivable pivot from Eriksen, especially being at home and against a weaker Swansea opponent.

Ben Davies, Tottenham, Defender, $6,300 DK, $7,000 FD – I am not a fan of paying up for defender since they have very little potential for goals compared to players that spend most of their time at forward and midfield. However, if you want a defender that has a high floor as well as the high ceiling of goal scoring or assists, then Davies is a good option for that.

Tournament Plays

Of course, everybody is a solid tournament play, as anybody can score a goal so long as they start the match. And even players that don’t start can come in off the bench and score a goal, but they usually only have 10-30 minutes to do so as opposed to 90. I don’t advocate taking flyers on players that don’t start as it is a losing strategy more often than not. That said, there is a method to select the players that are most likely to score goals, and thus marking themselves as tournament options. The players highlighted in this section will be players that take plenty of shots, convert several into goals, and get a lot of touches in the penalty area.

Player Name Team Opponent Shots Shots On Target Goals Dribbles Take Ons Assists
Richarlison WAT TOT 49 10 5 55 51 3
Sterling MCI WHU 28 12 9 38 33 2
Kane TOT WAT 78 28 10 54 46 1
Salah LIV BHA 51 30 12 54 47 2
Sane MCI WHU 21 8 6 47 45 6
Morata CHE NEW 40 19 8 29 26 4
Lukaku MUN ARS 51 23 8 21 19 4
Aguero MCI WHU 36 18 9 26 25 3
Alli TOT WAT 32 7 3 52 42 2
Silva MCI WHU 27 7 1 25 25 8
Choupo-Moting STK SWA 35 9 3 52 45 3
Zaha CPL WBA 20 9 3 62 53 0
Jesus MCI WHU 29 18 8 15 14 1
Lacazette ARS MUN 27 14 7 20 19 1
Josh King BOU SOT 22 7 2 61 53 1
Kolasinac ARS MUN 14 3 1 11 10 4
Sanchez ARS MUN 37 15 4 38 38 2
Firmino LIV BHA 29 11 3 28 28 2
Vardy LEI BUR 23 12 7 26 24 0
Rashford MUN ARS 30 10 3 61 53 4
Calvert-Lewin EVE HUD 26 9 1 25 24 3
Son TOT WAT 22 8 2 37 33 0
Andre Gray WAT TOT 21 4 2 14 9 2
Bellerín ARS MUN 13 3 0 22 17 0
Ramsey ARS MUN 31 13 3 22 19 5
Mane LIV BHA 20 8 4 35 29 3
Tadic SOT BOU 18 6 2 25 25 1
Martial MUN ARS 16 8 6 35 32 2
Joselu NEW CHE 32 14 2 6 6 0
Mahrez LEI BUR 28 9 3 67 63 4
Jordan Ayew SWA STK 19 4 1 33 28 2
Ayoze Pérez NEW CHE 17 6 1 25 20 1
Alonso CHE NEW 26 7 3 10 8 0
Niasse EVE HUD 15 7 5 20 17 0
Eriksen TOT WAT 38 14 3 18 17 2
Diouf STK SWA 24 5 3 17 12 1
Ozil ARS MUN 15 4 2 15 16 5
Shane Long SOT BOU 14 4 0 4 4 1
Abraham SWA STK 22 7 4 32 30 1
Redmond SOT BOU 27 7 0 32 31 2
Atsu NEW CHE 19 5 1 33 31 1
Benteke CPL WBA 15 6 0 4 4 0
Loftus-Cheek CPL WBA 14 3 1 49 46 1
Townsend CPL WBA 22 4 0 67 59 1
Sturridge LIV BHA 21 8 2 11 11 1
De Bruyne MCI WHU 31 16 4 29 28 7
Ince HUD EVE 30 7 0 30 28 0
Murray BHA LIV 11 6 4 6 6 0

Alexis Sanchez, Forward, Arsenal, $12,000 FD, $8,900 DK – He’s the highest priced player on FD and he’s below all the Liverpool and Tottenham top guns on DK. I like him better on DK for his low price, but I do like him to score a goal in a tight affair with Manchester United. I don’t know if a single goal however will pay for his price tag, but with this match expected to be a close one, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a penalty kick taken by Sanchez that gives him a brace on the day. Of course, all we can say for sure is that he’s going to get plenty of touches in the penalty area and hopefully take some shots when he’s in there.

Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, Forward, Stoke, $8,000 FD, $6,500 DK – For the Stoke forward, he’s getting attempts from both set plays and crosses. He’s getting plenty of touches in the penalty area. He has several shots per game and can deliver them as evidenced by his three goals so far this season.

Mohamed Salah, Forward, Liverpool, $12,000 FD, $11,300 DK – The price disparity for Salah between FD and DK isn’t as big as that of Sanchez. He’s still exorbitantly priced but I do believe he has a good chance at scoring more goals here as he continue to make his return to the EPL a most successful one.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Forward, Everton, $7,500 FD, $6,100 DK – For Everton against Huddersfield, Calvert-Lewin is a good value for the money on both sites given his potential to score goals for them and the general upward trend of the team.

Jay Rodriguez, Forward, West Brom, $7,500 FD, $6,000 DK – Similarly priced to Calvert-Lewin on both sites, but if both of them start I think I’ll go with Rodriguez because of his lower ownership expected and because of the uncertainty with the new manager. However, I believe that the new manager will work very well for JRod and that we’ll see this match as the beginning of a trend of multiple games with several shots on target and maybe some goals.

Goalkeeper Breakdown

This week I am advocating sticking to the tried and true method of going with a home underdog keeper to fill out your roster once you build the rest of the team. I don’t have strong feelings about any of the keepers, but I do think that playing at home gives a keeper an edge and an underdog should face more shots. I would stay away from Huddersfield’s keeper however since I can’t trust that Liverpool won’t score four goals.

Overall Defender Table

Player Name Team Opponent Headed shots shots interceptions clearances tackles Final 3rd Touches
Valencia BUR LEI 0 9 15 39 35 400
Bellerín BHA LIV 0 13 8 29 25 387
Bertrand MCI WHU 2 11 12 25 21 336
Daniels CPL WBA 0 8 17 51 37 329
Cedric SOT BOU 0 13 12 50 33 319
Alonso EVE HUD 6 26 21 45 37 315
Trippier NEW CHE 0 3 4 26 28 312
Kolasinac CHE NEW 4 14 13 24 33 311
Walker BUR LEI 0 4 10 34 18 297
Femenía MCI WHU 0 4 25 23 32 268
Davies LIV BHA 0 11 6 33 22 265
Holebas NEW CHE 0 8 14 35 30 252
Moreno WBA CPL 0 10 10 38 51 236
Cresswell WHU MCI 0 6 11 29 23 236
Naughton BHA LIV 0 4 29 66 43 232
Joel Ward SOT BOU 2 4 23 42 38 218
Olsson CPL WBA 0 4 14 37 16 209
Zabaleta TOT WAT 0 0 30 52 65 201
Pieters MUN ARS 0 0 31 43 46 196
Milner STK SWA 0 11 6 10 32 196
Baines SWA STK 1 5 16 35 20 191
Tommy Smith MCI WHU 0 4 18 40 26 185
Stephen Ward ARS MUN 0 4 28 60 36 176
Gibbs STK SWA 2 5 13 41 21 173
Zappacosta LEI BUR 0 8 4 11 15 164

Tournament Defenders

Player Name Team Opponent Headed shots shots interceptions clearances tackles Final 3rd Touches
Mee BUR LEI 11 12 19 115 27 29
Duffy BHA LIV 10 11 21 121 15 38
Otamendi MCI WHU 9 15 24 51 29 89
Dann CPL WBA 8 14 19 65 13 46
van Dijk SOT BOU 6 8 16 60 6 42
Ashley Williams EVE HUD 6 8 18 80 18 19
Clark NEW CHE 6 8 7 76 17 35
Alonso CHE NEW 6 26 21 45 37 315
Tarkowski BUR LEI 5 7 25 121 34 30
Stones MCI WHU 5 6 15 30 22 18
Matip LIV BHA 5 9 24 61 26 45
Lascelles NEW CHE 5 6 10 64 12 23
Hegazi WBA CPL 5 6 26 106 28 28
Fonte WHU MCI 5 8 14 37 16 32
Dunk BHA LIV 5 12 27 84 22 41
Yoshida SOT BOU 4 12 15 62 12 35
Tomkins CPL WBA 4 7 15 18 15 13
Davinson Sanchez TOT WAT 4 6 11 56 21 21
Smalling MUN ARS 4 5 13 48 12 15
Shawcross STK SWA 4 8 14 72 10 20
Mawson SWA STK 4 7 13 106 13 19
Kompany MCI WHU 4 4 6 24 13 28
Kolasinac ARS MUN 4 14 13 24 33 311
Zouma STK SWA 3 12 25 102 24 67
Morgan LEI BUR 3 4 9 84 22 21

About the Author

hambazaza
Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza)

At the intersection of sports and mathematics you’ll find Hesh Hambazaza as a staunch believer that numbers really can explain everything. Along with working as a RotoGrinders editor, Hambazaza contributes to RotoGrinders in Soccer coverage as well as a contributor to RotoAcademy highlighting Vegas as a useful tool. When he’s not devoting countless hours to DFS a week, Hambazaza can be found working as a father, husband and electrical engineer on various NASA projects.