EPL Grind Down: Matchweek 16

With the holiday season coming in full swing, most teams will be playing games every 3-4 days and thus we’ll see tired legs among the majority of the squads. You can expect that this is one of the few slates where the lineups won’t actually differ far from their A-teams as the majority of these teams didn’t have European competitions to contend with last week. However, starting next week you’ll see teams rotating heavily and giving some serious looks at their benches and the rest of their players. Managers will start thinking about the January transfer window and could be trying to showcase players they want to sell.

That said, this week we can enjoy the relatively calm landscape. Teams are still looking for wins, the matches here are mostly even, so the edge usually goes to the home team. There are teams that under perform at home on occasion, but you can’t try to predict those and expect to stay ahead. There are some safe bets here, I like this week for cash games as there are several good options that are predictable and reliable. But I also think there is room for tournaments with some of these games predicted to feature 2 or more goals.

As usual, we’ll get started with a look at the odds.

Odds

Home Odds Away Odds
West Ham 645 Chelsea -205
Burnley 162 Watford 203
Crystal Palace 104 Bournemouth 316
Huddersfield 169 Brighton 215
Swansea 174 West Brom 208
Tottenham -329 Stoke 968
Newcastle United 164 Leicester 195
Southampton 285 Arsenal 101
Liverpool -343 Everton 1060
Manchester United 246 Manchester City 122

Top Six Teams

We only have one of our top six teams in play this week, and that is Tottenham who take on Stoke at home.

Tottenham

Tottenham have notoriously had trouble at Wembley since moving their home games there away from White Heart Lane last season. They only have eight goals scored at home in their last six home games, and they failed to win in three of those matches. In fact, their only game where they scored more than a single goal was against Liverpool where they scored four goals. But outside of that match, it’s hard to expect much success from this team. Overall, they’ve been absolutely terrible in their last six matches with just five points in their last six matches with just four goals scored overall and conceding seven.

Their opponent Stoke isn’t necessarily a team that will induce fear in the heart of opponents or defenses as they’ve scored just 8 goals overall and conceded ten goals in that same interval. This match doesn’t speak highly of fantasy potential as neither team has shown a recent aptitude to goal scoring.

My prediction however goes contrary to that. I expect that this is a match that Tottenham should expect to clearly dominate their opponent and that opens up fantasy potential for players such as Christian Eriksen, Harry Kane, Dele Alli, Kieran Tripper, and Son Heung-Min in that order. Trippier carries the highest floor along with Eriksen, however, Trippier’s price tag makes him essentially unplayable on DK at greater than $7K for a defender. Kane at 12K on DK is also tough to swallow, but with the lack of superstar talent, you can make it work. My most likely play from this game is Eriksen.

Eriksen has scored just 3 goals on the season off of 2.6 shots a game. He’s got potential to really pick it up if given some opportunities and I think this week might be the one where he gets those opportunities.

The non Top-6

The non top-six teams that are not playing top six teams will comprise this section, as generally, we handle matches that don’t involve top teams differently than we would every other match. This week five of six matches on our slate comes from here so it will be critical to analyze these games correctly as they will be the difference maker in our lineups.

Burnley vs Watford

This is a match between two teams that have far exceeded expectations this season. Watford has picked up some solid players in the summer to build on their team from last year, and Burnley did the same after securing their superb home record last season and now have translated some of that success to the road. These two teams enter this match as the seventh and eighth ranked teams in the table. Burnley are a solid defensive team as they are ranked fourth in goals conceded, while Watford are a solid offensive team ranked fifth in goals scored. With Burnley at home, the expectation is that Burnley will come out on top here at least in terms of converting this match into a defensive bout rather than a goal scoring one making this match a not-so-appealing one for fantasy purposes.

Another reason to suspect that Burnley try to make this a heavily defensive matchup is the lack of Robbie Brady who will be missing this matchup. Brady leads the team in shots, crosses and chances created meaning that for Burnley, they’ll lose a key player in the midfield and will look to hunker down a bit and invite the opponent to shoot from outside the box. Burnley allow the most shots, but they also block the most shots and the highest percentage of shots in the league. This lowers the expectation for a player such as Richarlison from Watford and makes the match look like an overall slugfest with lots of action between the 18s and no real threats on the goalkeepers.

Ultimately, the only player to really consider from Burnley is Johann Berg-Gudmundsson who should pick up the midfield duties vacated by Brady. While for Watford, Richarlison makes the most sense despite the lower than usual goal scoring odds and the tougher opponent. Him being on the road in this situation also makes him a good tournament option if you’re building multiple lineups and want to take an educated gamble on a known quantity of a player.

Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth

Crystal Palace are in a sort of resurgence in recent weeks with seven of their ten total points coming in their last six matches as they’ve clawed their way out of 20th place in the table up to 18th and are looking to continue that climb into safety when they welcome Bournemouth this week. Palace have had trouble scoring goals this season but now with Zaha back and Benteke starting again, the team will be looking to regain some form in order to find their safe spot in the middle of the table. The fixtures are coming fast and furious now and so we’ll be watching out for squad rotation as the weeks carry on, but this is a match that I expect that Palace will try to feature all able bodies. So Cabaye, Zaha, Townsend, Benteke will all get their runs this week. I would expect that Zaha and Cabaye are both in play because of their abilities to create chances. You can look for Benteke in tournaments, of course, be prepared to get 1-2 points from him if he fails to score as he’s really a high upside tournament play only with very very low floor. In fact, he can end with negative points if he gets a card or commits fouls without taking many shots.

As for Bournemouth, I don’t rate them very high and they should be one of the teams battling for a place in the Premier League towards the end of the season. They have struggled and failed to capitalize in recent weeks on matches that should have been winnable. Expect that they’ll continue to provide more of the same this week and it would not shock me if they end up as losers in this draw.

As for fantasy options, I expect that Palace will be on several people’s short list when it comes time to build lineups. Benteke is very cheap on DK (just $6K), while Cabaye is just $7K on FD and his ability to rack up the peripheral points makes him an excellent play over there. I expect that if goals are scored in this one they will come from a combination of Zaha, Benteke, Cabaye and Townsend. Those players will spend the most time in the box and should get the most opportunities.

As for Bournemouth, I wouldn’t really want to go to their goalkeepers as I don’t think they’ll see enough shots to make them worth taking. However, the price on Begovic is pretty low and so I don’t hate the choice. For other positions, I would consider Stanislas or Callum Wilson for tournament options and hope for goal or assist from the road team.

Huddersfield vs Brighton and Hove Albion

This match should be a very low scoring affair this week as Huddersfield and Brighton are two teams that don’t score a lot of goals and tend to struggle in general. Huddersfield have scored just six goals at home this season while Brighton have managed five away from home. Together, this doesn’t bode very well and the oddsmakers agree. This game has the lowest scoring odds of any match in the slate and thus go our fantasy options.

There are however some potential options. Going with central defenders to get defensive stats such as blocks, clearances, tackles and interceptions is a solid strategy provided the defenders are cheap enough, and this can even work in tournaments if you can find one defender that takes shots in set pieces. Schindler and Zanka are both potential options for Huddersfield, while Duffy and Dunk are the options from Brighton.

As for set pieces, Huddersfield rely on Aaron Mooy for set pieces and crosses, and he makes for a decent play if it weren’t for his high price tag on both DK and FD (7.1 on DK and 8.5 on FD). Pascal Gross carries the same dilemma on both sites as he’s priced at 7.5 on DK and 8.5 on FD.

Swansea vs West Brom

This is a tough match to peg as neither of these teams have truly settled into their new managers strategies or the new team dynamics after some changes. Swansea have some solid players in Abraham, Ki Sung-Yueng, Jordan Ayew and Tom Carroll. Despite that, the team doesn’t manage a lot of offense, even at home where they’ve scored just 4 goals in seven games. This may or may not change this week as they host the new look West Brom who are no longer under command from defense-first manager Tony Pulis.

Pardew’s signature is not evident yet on the squad that he’s taken over and looking to try to progress into safety. The team faces a tough challenge on the road against a hungry team. And for each team, this is the kind of match that you must come away with a result from if you wish to remain the Premier League. That means that a nil-nil draw is very possible as each team plays it safe and avoids a trap.

There are some fantasy options however. For Swansea, Lukasz Fabianski could be a potential fantasy choice. Tammy Abraham is at home and against an opponent he may successfully score against. Tom Carroll and Andre Ayew are two players I think can contribute with ancillary statistics with Ayew being more likely to score a goal or assist a goal.

As for West Brom, Matt Phillips and Jay Rodriguez make for interesting options on this team along with Salomon Rondon. If Robson Kanu starts as the striker in a 4-3-3 then HRK jumps right to the front of that line and is a candidate to start next to Kane in my cash games in the forward spot. He started the last two matches and has four shots a game in each with a goal scored. He’s going against a team that can concede goals and thus has a good shot at scoring if given opportunities.

Newcastle vs Leicester

Leicester visit Newcastle after moving up in the standings to 9th with wins in recent weeks against Tottenham and Burnley. Meanwhile, Newcastle are reeling as they have just a single point in their last six matches and have lost their last two home matches with a combined scored of 0-4. This match does not bode well for them as they face a Leicester team that is playing very well. The likes of Mahrez and Vardy have stepped their games up in recent weeks having led the team in wins against Tottenham and Burnley. The team added depth in their lineup by giving more opportunity to Demarai Gray, who plays well when he gets the start. The true strength to this team comes from the central midfield where Iborra and Ndidi are getting starts and are dominant enough to provide the opportunity for the likes of Albrighton, Mahrez, Gray/Okazaki, and Vardy to focus on attack. This has given the four forwards free reign to push forward and has also allowed the full backs to push forward when given an opportunity.

This week, this is the late match and it will be interesting to see ownership of the players in the late game. Vardy is at a great price on DK at just $6,600 and Albrighton is just $5,800. A good pairing would be Mahrez and Vardy together or replacing Mahrez with Gray (who tends to take corners and gets involved in wing play more often when he’s on the pitch).

As for Newcastle, it wouldn’t be out of the question to take their defenders or goalkeeper. On FanDuel, you could target the central defenders who should get a fair portion of defensive stats. On DK, the goalkeeper should be an option priced at just $4,800.

Cash Plays

For a player to be cash eligible, they need to do a few things. First, they should be a heavy crossing/shooting/chance creator type player. If a player fills all three buckets then they are absolutely in cash territory for me for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The table below will display the top 50 crossing players on the season so far and below I’ll have a few one-liner thoughts on a few important ones.

Player Name Team Opponent Crosses Corners Chances Created Open Play Crosses Shots
Brady BUR WAT 123 67 26 45 24
Ritchie NEW LEI 113 59 26 47 30
Groß BHA HUD 97 42 31 46 11
Mooy HUD BHA 96 48 22 40 10
De Bruyne MCI MUN 95 53 47 51 34
Cresswell WHU CHE 92 24 15 56 6
Eriksen TOT STK 90 51 33 39 39
Shaqiri STK TOT 83 43 31 25 30
Holebas WAT BUR 82 33 15 38 8
Townsend CPL BOU 80 22 27 47 24
Albrighton LEI NEW 75 24 15 52 8
Sigurdsson EVE LIV 71 30 21 14 21
Cabaye CPL BOU 70 49 23 9 19
Olsson SWA WBA 68 0 8 68 6
Trippier TOT STK 68 22 21 45 4
Fabregas CHE WHU 67 71 44 17 17
Ben Davies TOT STK 67 22 25 47 12
Tom Carroll SWA WBA 66 28 17 20 11
Cedric SOT ARS 65 0 11 64 13
Phillips WBA SWA 59 16 11 37 12
Bertrand SOT ARS 58 21 17 39 11
Daniels BOU CPL 58 9 13 55 9
Knockaert BHA HUD 55 18 15 29 15
Tadic SOT ARS 52 7 23 46 21
Ward-Prowse SOT ARS 51 28 13 16 6
Mahrez LEI NEW 49 27 18 17 32
Cleverley WAT BUR 48 23 20 20 11
Rashford MUN MCI 48 21 13 26 30
Valencia MUN MCI 47 0 7 47 10
Nyom WBA SWA 46 0 7 46 2
Baines EVE LIV 45 13 12 30 5
Milner LIV EVE 45 22 15 28 11
Young MUN MCI 45 7 10 36 12
Silva MCI MUN 45 23 36 25 31
Alonso CHE WHU 45 0 10 45 27
Lanzini WHU CHE 45 29 17 7 16
Ozil ARS SOT 44 32 43 11 18
Femenía WAT BUR 43 0 14 43 4
Moreno LIV EVE 43 3 12 39 10
Ibe BOU CPL 43 20 14 25 13
Stephen Ward BUR WAT 42 0 9 42 4
Mata MUN MCI 42 19 16 23 5
Naughton SWA WBA 41 0 10 41 4
Mkhitaryan MUN MCI 41 23 24 21 13
Xhaka ARS SOT 41 41 16 6 31
Zappacosta CHE WHU 41 0 4 41 8
Joel Ward CPL BOU 40 0 7 40 4
Masuaku WHU CHE 39 0 5 39 3

Christian Eriksen, Tottenham, Midfielder, $10,300 DK, $10,500 FD – It’s hard to argue with him, he’s going to be heavily involved and on a team that is the only outright favorite in today’s slate. He should be handling all the set pieces, but he has been sharing open play crosses with the full backs lately.

Aaron Mooy, Huddersfield, Midfielder, $7,100 DK, $8,500 FD – The price tag is higher than I would like, but he’s been consistent in crossing ability and is a major part of this team’s offensive makeup. If they want a win this weekend, they’ll have to go through Mooy to make it happen.

Marc Albrighton, Leicester, Midfielder, $5,800 DK, $6,500 FD – Mahrez and Vardy might be getting the headlines, but Albrighton makes for a good cheap play for the late game. He has a lot of things going for him for fantasy with the upside of assists, as well as chances created and crosses being a big part of his game. Leicester should get some opportunities against Newcastle even on the road, and Albrighton will be leading the left flank in that endeavor.

Wilfried Zaha, Crystal Palace, Midfielder, $8,600 DK, $9,500 FD – Zaha is one of my favorite players and I believe I end up recommending him every week. But that isn’t enough for him to make it to your lineups. This week he’s going against a Bournemouth team that Palace should have the advantage against. This means that Zaha and his team should come away as victors and we could see a performance that can win GPPs from the attacking midfielder.

Tournament Plays

Of course, everybody is a solid tournament play, as anybody can score a goal so long as they start the match. And even players that don’t start can come in off the bench and score a goal, but they usually only have 10-30 minutes to do so as opposed to 90. I don’t advocate taking flyers on players that don’t start as it is a losing strategy more often than not. That said, there is a method to select the players that are most likely to score goals, and thus marking themselves as tournament options. The players highlighted in this section will be players that take plenty of shots, convert several into goals, and get a lot of touches in the penalty area.

Player Name Team Opponent Shots Shots On Target Goals Dribbles Take Ons Assists
Kane TOT STK 80 28 10 54 46 1
Salah LIV EVE 54 31 12 60 53 3
Lukaku MUN MCI 51 23 8 24 22 4
Richarlison WAT BUR 51 10 5 58 54 3
Morata CHE WHU 43 20 9 33 30 4
Sanchez ARS SOT 42 17 4 39 39 2
Eriksen TOT STK 39 15 3 18 17 3
Aguero MCI MUN 38 17 9 26 25 3
Ramsey ARS SOT 36 14 3 23 20 6
Choupo-Moting STK TOT 35 9 3 59 51 3
Lacazette ARS SOT 34 18 8 25 24 1
De Bruyne MCI MUN 34 18 4 31 30 8
Coutinho LIV EVE 33 9 4 44 42 4
Joselu NEW LEI 32 14 2 5 6 0
Ince HUD BHA 32 7 0 29 28 0
Firmino LIV EVE 32 13 5 31 31 2
Mahrez LEI NEW 32 11 3 71 68 4
Alli TOT STK 32 7 3 56 45 2
Jesus MCI MUN 32 19 8 17 16 2
Silva MCI MUN 31 9 2 25 25 8
Rodriguez WBA SWA 31 11 2 30 26 0
Xhaka ARS SOT 31 7 0 11 11 3
Sterling MCI MUN 31 12 9 45 39 2
Ritchie NEW LEI 30 5 0 15 11 5
Shaqiri STK TOT 30 13 4 33 29 5
Rashford MUN MCI 30 10 3 61 53 4
Redmond SOT ARS 28 7 0 33 32 3
Calvert-Lewin EVE LIV 28 11 2 26 24 4
Diouf STK TOT 27 6 4 19 13 1
Alonso CHE WHU 27 8 3 12 10 0
Vardy LEI NEW 26 12 7 30 28 0
Sane MCI MUN 26 10 6 49 47 6
Josh King BOU CPL 25 8 2 70 62 1
Townsend CPL BOU 24 4 0 69 60 1
Pogba MUN MCI 24 7 3 34 32 5
Brady BUR WAT 24 6 1 26 25 2
Zaha CPL BOU 23 10 3 65 56 0
Son TOT STK 23 9 3 39 35 0
Hazard CHE WHU 22 17 5 70 64 2
Abraham SWA WBA 22 7 4 33 31 1
Rooney EVE LIV 21 10 7 13 13 1
Sturridge LIV EVE 21 8 2 11 11 1
Wijnaldum LIV EVE 21 8 1 24 23 1
Sigurdsson EVE LIV 21 6 2 13 12 2
Tadic SOT ARS 21 6 2 25 25 1
Andre Gray WAT BUR 21 4 2 14 9 2
Pedro CHE WHU 20 10 2 14 14 2
Shelvey NEW LEI 20 5 0 10 8 0

Harry Kane, Tottenham, Forward, $12,400 DK, $13,500 FD – With a lack of options at high priced forwards, Kane will be the defacto go to forward that everybody tries to fit in his team. It’s hard to disagree with the assessment either because of his ability to deliver in the crunch. I don’t buy into the “can’t score at Wembley” narrative, and Kane is a good player in a good matchup. There is no salary competition on the board to keep you from putting him in your teams, I say do it.

Christian Benteke, Crystal Palace, Forward, $6,500 DK, $8,500 FD – He’s in a good opportunity and could combine with Zaha for some goals. But be prepared for the potential for minimal points as his floor is very low. Benteke is the true tournament play.

Joselu, Newcastle, Forward, $5,800 DK, $8,000 FD – He’s high on the list of goal attempts on the season and is playing at home against a team that is known for defensive lapses at times despite having a world class goalkeeper. He’s going to take his shots and on DK is cheap enough to consider.

Others to consider in no particular order: Jamie Vardy, Tammy Abraham, Son Hueing-Min, Dwight Gale, Jay Rodriguez, Salomon Rondon, Troy Deeney, Richarlison, Laurent Depoitre, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting.

Goalkeeper Breakdown

This week I am advocating sticking to the tried and true method of going with a home underdog keeper to fill out your roster once you build the rest of the team. I don’t have strong feelings about any of the keepers, but I do think that playing at home gives a keeper an edge and an underdog should face more shots.

Overall Defender Table

Player Name Team Opponent Headed shots shots interceptions clearances tackles Final 3rd Touches
Valencia BUR WAT 0 10 15 45 37 410
Bellerín BHA HUD 0 14 8 31 26 403
Daniels MCI MUN 0 9 19 51 40 364
Bertrand CPL BOU 2 11 15 28 25 363
Walker SOT ARS 0 5 11 35 24 348
Trippier NEW LEI 0 4 6 32 33 342
Alonso CHE WHU 6 27 21 47 37 336
Kolasinac WBA SWA 4 15 13 26 37 333
Cedric BUR WAT 0 13 12 50 33 319
Femenía EVE LIV 0 4 25 25 34 285
Davies (Ben) LIV EVE 0 12 6 36 25 283
Holebas BHA HUD 0 8 13 35 30 252
Naughton WHU CHE 0 4 28 70 52 243
Cresswell NEW LEI 0 6 11 37 24 243
Moreno (Alberto) CHE WHU 0 10 10 38 51 236
Olsson MCI MUN 0 6 14 41 19 235
Ward (Joel) ARS SOT 2 4 25 49 41 234
Milner SOT ARS 0 11 6 11 37 210
Pieters MCI MUN 0 0 33 44 48 209
Smith (Tommy) BOU CPL 0 5 19 42 26 208
Zabaleta TOT STK 0 0 33 58 70 207
Gibbs WAT BUR 2 5 14 41 23 202
Baines STK TOT 1 5 16 35 20 191
Ward (Stephen) SWA WBA 0 4 30 64 40 186
A Smith MUN MCI 0 5 11 37 46 171

Tournament Defenders

Player Name Team Opponent Headed shots shots interceptions clearances tackles Final 3rd Touches
Mee BUR WAT 12 13 19 119 30 31
Duffy BHA HUD 10 11 21 128 19 42
Otamendi MCI MUN 9 17 26 54 34 112
Dann CPL BOU 8 14 19 65 13 46
van Dijk SOT ARS 7 9 23 70 10 46
Clark NEW LEI 7 9 8 84 17 38
Alonso CHE WHU 6 27 21 47 37 336
Hegazi WBA SWA 6 7 28 111 31 36
Tarkowski BUR WAT 6 8 25 122 38 31
Williams (Ashley) EVE LIV 6 8 19 93 18 19
Matip LIV EVE 5 9 24 61 26 45
Dunk BHA HUD 5 12 28 85 29 43
Fonte WHU CHE 5 8 14 37 16 32
Lascelles NEW LEI 5 6 10 64 12 23
Christensen CHE WHU 5 5 15 40 12 19
Stones MCI MUN 5 6 15 30 22 18
Kolasinac ARS SOT 4 15 13 26 37 333
Yoshida SOT ARS 4 12 15 62 12 35
Kompany MCI MUN 4 4 6 24 13 28
Aké BOU CPL 4 5 22 110 23 28
DSanchez TOT STK 4 6 10 60 23 21
Kabasele WAT BUR 4 4 19 96 25 21
Shawcross STK TOT 4 8 12 84 11 20
Mawson SWA WBA 4 7 10 112 13 20
Smalling MUN MCI 4 5 15 55 13 15

About the Author

hambazaza
Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza)

At the intersection of sports and mathematics you’ll find Hesh Hambazaza as a staunch believer that numbers really can explain everything. Along with working as a RotoGrinders editor, Hambazaza contributes to RotoGrinders in Soccer coverage as well as a contributor to RotoAcademy highlighting Vegas as a useful tool. When he’s not devoting countless hours to DFS a week, Hambazaza can be found working as a father, husband and electrical engineer on various NASA projects.