EPL Grind Down: Matchweek 18

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2018-04-04 01:47:46

Welcome to another week of EPL contests. This week the teams are all suffering from the tight schedule. For most teams this week’s matches will be their third in a space of 8 days. Others it will be their fourth in 10 days. For most, this isn’t the end of the tight schedule as this goes on through the end of the year. This week’s matchups do pose an interesting dilemma. We have six matches with four of the top six teams in play, and two of them are even playing each other. Manchester City look to continue their march of dominance in the league when they host a Tottenham team that they are big favorites against, meanwhile Arsenal and Chelsea also play hosts to Southampton and Newcastle. The remainder of the matches feature some non top-six teams with the most interesting being Stoke hosting West Ham and Brighton welcoming Burnley to the south coast. We’ll talk about those matchups shortly, but first, the odds.

The Odds

Top Six Teams

As mentioned in the intro paragraph, we have four top six teams this week that we can consider for our squads. Two of them play each other, but the oddsmakers seem to believe that City and Tottenham is heavily in favor of the Citizens. We’ll examine that in a minute, while the other two teams do present unique opportunities for us to get some fantasy production.

Arsenal

The Gunners are in desperate need of a result here this week as they have slipped to seventh in the table behind Burnley after a string of results in the last two weeks that saw them lose three matches in the EPL. Of course, they did have a dominant performance in the Europa League winning 6-0 against BATE Borisov. Looking at their three EPL matches however (1-3 vs Man United, 1-1 Southampton, and 0-0 West Ham) there are some interesting numbers that pop out of these matchups. Arsenal controlled between 67% and 75% of possession in all these matches. They outshot their opponents 66-20 yet managed just 2 goals. From those 66 shots, 25 of them were on target, 31 were from inside the penalty area and only 4 were inside the six yard box. The team has a finishing problem and may even have a “trigger happy” problem. The team featured 4 of the top 15 shot takers in the that span and two of the top xG (expected goals) performers (Lacazette and Alexis). That said, the team should be able to produce a result.

Their matchup this week is against Newcastle who have lost five of their last six matches having scored just six times in six matches while conceding 10 goals in that same range. Newcastle should presumably struggle to contain this Arsenal squad. But will Arsenal manage to correct their fortunes and provide their fans with the home performance they’ve been waiting for?

Arsenal are going to likely get strong performances from Alexandre Lacazette, Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil who should all carry a high ceiling as well as a decently sized floor on both FanDuel and DraftKings because of their abilities to take shots and potential to be involved in goals.

As for Newcastle, the team is likely to be pinned in their own third trying to avoid a defeat. If you want to take a shot in the dark in GPP for salary relief, Dwight Gayle might provide that on DK, though his price on FD is a bit higher than I’d like.

Chelsea Chelsea are coming into this match with hopes to put pressure on Manchester United for the second place after they’ve seen their challenge for retaining their title shrink after a loss last weekend to West Ham while Manchester City continue marching through the league. Chelsea still want to guarantee themselves a Champions League spot, and they may switch their attentions to the league cup and the Champions League where they drew Barcelona in the second round. For now though, Chelsea have the task of hosting Southampton who are coming off an uninspiring 4-1 defeat at home to Leicester.

Chelsea did manage to put up a good performance in the midweek against Huddersfield where they came out on top 3-1 thanks to solid performances by Willian and Tiemou Bakayoko. In that match, Morata and Fabregas were rested and presumably, the Spanish duo will be ready to fill back into this matchup and guide the Blues to another win.

Southampton’s manager, Mauricio Pellegrino blasted his players following their last match against Leicester and threatened to drop those who weren’t giving their full effort from the lineup. So we’ll see if that ignites a spark in his players, although, Southampton players have notoriously been a very unreliable fantasy team for the last two seasons with seemingly nobody being able to correctly predict their performances or anticipate who stands out on a game-to-game basis.

That said, Chelsea do have some players that are worth considering for fantasy purposes. Eden Hazard can go off any game, and does seem to improve drastically when at home. His best performance by far came when playing in a 3-5-1-1 and he was an attacking central midfielder behind Morata where he took 9 shots and scored twice (one with a penalty). I don’t expect that sort of performance to repeat again, but I do believe that he has the potential to be a top scoring player in a positive matchup.

Other players to consider are Fabregas, Willian and Victor Moses.

For the Southampton side, it remains very hard to target any of their players outside of a GPP flier, but Chelsea are solid defensively and have only conceded seven goals at home all season.

Manchester City vs Tottenham

Both these teams have been playing very well. Tottenham managed to top their Champions League group that featured Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund, so they can certainly put up a challenge for City. Meanwhile, City are undefeated in the Premier League this season and pundits are already asking if they’ll ever lose (which to me is a sure sign that they’re going to lose this week, especially playing a tough opponent).

What makes Tottenham likely to get a win here is that they are not expected to perform. They are big underdogs, the scoreline is high for a premier league game (set at 3 or 3.5 in some outlets), City have not kept a clean sheet in their last three home matches. Meanwhile, Tottenham are trying to improve their road record as they are without a win in their last four attempts on the road including losses at Leicester, Arsenal and Manchester United. They will at least get some goals in this one.

With this match being the late game, it will be interesting to try to target these players as you’ll have to trust a projected lineup and hope that you can pivot to a replacement if any of your picks end up resting with the December busy schedule.

For City, Kevin De Bruyne is almost a no brainer. He’s leading the league in chances created and assists. Moreover, he’s also tied on top of the league for shots on target with nonother than Harry Kane. You could also consider taking David Silva for tournaments and maybe one of Gabriel Jesus or Sergio Aguero in attack.

For Tottenham taking a shot on Harry Kane or Christian Eriksen make sense in tournaments as both of them can perform at a high level regardless of the matchup or opposition. Add to that City’s apparent vulnerability in some defensive aspects and I expect that there is a pathway for both of them to reach value and to be a low owned option at that in a tournament.

The non Top-6

The non top-six teams that are not playing top six teams will comprise this section, as generally, we handle matches that don’t involve top teams differently than we would every other match. This week three of our matches don’t include the top six. And as a reminder, the top six teams are not based on the current position in the table, but rather are based on historic strength. In this case, these teams are comprised of both Manchester Clubs, Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool. (Burnley, despite being in sixth place in the table, are not a top six team in a historic sense of the word).

Stoke vs West Ham

This matchup between two teams that have struggled defensively this season might prove to be an interesting one. West Ham have two straight matchups of positive results against top teams (win against Chelsea and draw against Arsenal), and now get to visit a Stoke side that sports the leakiest defense in the Premier League. These two teams are both mired in the bottom half of the table and are just two points apart. West Ham will be looking to get a much needed road win here to climb out of the relegation zone and begin a slow climb up to the top half of the table. Meanwhile, Stoke will be looking to tighten things up on defense and give their fans something to cheer about.

Stoke will be missing Kurt Zouma however, and will likely be replacing him with Kevin Wimmer. Wimmer provides stats that are similar to Zouma on a per 90 basis. The team should employ him in the same fashion they use Zouma, and that is as a stopper and a central defender that works with Ryan Shawcross to stop opposing forwards. Wimmer has height and a good passing ability that he can provide some outlet passes to the fast wingers for Stoke who will be looking to break forward on counters.

That said, I don’t truly believe that this match is a fantasy rich environment. There are a few players to consider on both sides. Starting with Jack Butland as a goalkeeper who can see a fair number of shots. Also, Shaqiri and Choupo-Moting have potential on the wings for this team at home as they can feed the forwards whether it is Crouch or Diouf.

On the other side, Marko Arnautovic has been playing well for his side as he’s scored the winner against Chelsea last weekend, and can do so again as he seems to have made a career out of getting “hot”. This is a matchup that can see him get a goal, especially having it be a “revenge” game. The likes of Michail Antonio and Manuel Lanzini are also in play for the Hammers.

Watford vs Huddersfield

On paper I can see some making the argument for this match to be a competitive one. After all, Watford have failed to win in their last four and have slipped away from the top group and look to continue slipping further. Huddersfield are just 4 points behind the home team in this one and could come away with at least a point if they play well.

Despite that, Huddersfield are likely to face a very tough matchup here on the road against a very solid Watford team.

Huddersfield have failed to score a goal in their last SEVEN away matches. Ever since their opening week match against Crystal Palace where they came away as 3-0 winners, they have failed to score a single goal. In that span of seven matches, they have just 14 shots on target. Huddersfield do manage to control possession in matches where the opponent isn’t too far above them in class, so the team does have a solid midfield, but they seem to have trouble creating opportunities for their forwards to capitalize and threaten the opponents goal. This will not help them in a matchup with Watford.

Watford are a solid offensive team having scored 26 goals so far this season, despite just 10 of them being at home. In fairness, that can be attributed to the matchups so far, where five of their eight home matches have come against top six teams (though, eight of their ten goals came against these top teams, indicating that Watford can play up to solid opposition, but tend to play down to lesser opponents, though, you know… sample size)

Expect that the likes of Richarlison, Gray, Capoue and Doucoure to be in play this week as the team looks to come away with three points here to preserve their place in the top half of the table.

For Huddersfield, if you want to take a flier on a tournament option, Tom Ince or Aaron Mooy represent the best bets, though Tom Ince could be the one who comes through based on the underlying statistics such as expected goals and chances created so far this season. Although, neither of them represent a true solid option outside of dart throws in a tournament.

Brighton vs Burnley

In their last home match, Brighton were humiliated by Liverpool in a 5-1 defeat, and this week they get to face Burnley, who have been exceptional away from home in a match that should go easily to the road team. I expect Burnley to come out firing on all cylinders, looking to keep their run of good form continuing as they approach the midway point of the season and start to truly believe that they can contend for a spot in Europe next year.

Burnley are adjusting to life without Robbie Brady after their winger had to undergo surgery to repair a torn patella tendon. In his absence, Johann Berg-Gudmundsson has emerged as the key midfield player with 27 crosses in his last three matches and has double digit DK fantasy points in his last five matches. In that same span he’s also managed 9 chances created and four shots on goal making him a viable cash game option on both FD and DK this week.

Scott Arfield is replacing Brady in the starting XI and he’s already got a goal and assist making him an interesting fantasy option. To me he’s only a tournament play but he’s second to Chris Wood who should get the majority of the goal opportunities for the Clarets as the season progresses.

On the other side of the pitch, Brighton do have some solid players and have the opportunity to prove themselves here by finally getting a win at home to end a five game winless streak in the venue. The top players to consider for Brighton are Pascal Gross and Glenn Murray and Anthony Knockaert. Though, none of them make for a truly remarkable option. Instead, I would consider the goalkeeping as a fantasy asset in this one as Mat Ryan should face ample opportunities to make saves without a serious risk of conceding more than 2 goals, making for a solid line if he can get a few saves at home where he has a decent chance at coming away with a win.

Cash Plays

For a player to be cash eligible, they need to do a few things. First, they should be a heavy crossing/shooting/chance creator type player. If a player fills all three buckets then they are absolutely in cash territory for me for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The table below will display the top 50 crossing players on the season so far and below I’ll have a few one-liner thoughts on a few important ones.

Kevin De Bruyne, Manchester City, $9,100 DK, $11,000 FD – KDB has been the main catalyst for the superb performances by City this season. Expect him to continue these solid performances this week and to be part of any goals that City manage against Tottenham. If he does end up resting this week, consider David Silva as the standard bearer in the midfield for Man City.

Christian Eriksen, Tottenham, $7,500 DK, $9,000 FD – Eriksen’s price is depressed this week, presumably because of his matchup with ManCity. I don’t think that’s fair as he is still a very capable player and this team will put a challenge up against the Sky Blues. He’s cheap enough that you can fit him with some other main players to consider.

Johann Berg-Gudmundsson, Burnley, $7,600 DK, $7,500 FD – The benefactor from the injury to Brady is Gudmundsson. He’s taken over the responsibilities and should be in a good position this week against a Brighton team that will struggle to contain him.

Cesc Fabregas, Chelsea, $7,200 DK, $10,500 FD – Fabregas rested in the midweek and will be ready for this week’s matchup against Southampton. Expect that Fabregas will get double digits on DK and push close to 20 points if he gets involved in a goal. For a cheap price on DK he’s a steal, on FD it’s more of a complicated decision because of his price tag as the third highest priced midfielder.

Alexis Sanchez, Arsenal, $10,500 DK, $11,000 FD – As mentioned earlier, Arsenal have had trouble with scoring goals, but the biggest fantasy option and most likely goal scorer who still carries a cash floor is Alexis Sanchez.

Tournament Plays

Of course, everybody is a solid tournament play, as anybody can score a goal so long as they start the match. And even players that don’t start can come in off the bench and score a goal, but they usually only have 10-30 minutes to do so as opposed to 90. I don’t advocate taking flyers on players that don’t start as it is a losing strategy more often than not. That said, there is a method to select the players that are most likely to score goals, and thus marking themselves as tournament options. The players highlighted in this section will be players that take plenty of shots, convert several into goals, and get a lot of touches in the penalty area.

Richarlison, Watford, $8,700 DK. $10,000 FD – Richarlison is struggling from fatigue but he should be 100% ready to go in this one. He’s going to be one of the top players to target this week as he looks to score goals.

Alexandre Lacazette, Arsenal, $8,500 DK, $9,000 FD – Lacazette along with Sanchez make for a formidable duo and likely will be popular as they are an obvious pair to target from Arsenal while Chelsea don’t make it as obvious and City are playing Tottenham rendering both teams as potential avoids, especially in a late game. But Lacazette has potential for a busy game as he tries to get some goals and I wouldn’t want to miss out on his production.

Gabriel Jesus, Manchester City, $8,100 DK, $9,500 FD – Both Jesus and Aguero are potential options, and you can’t go wrong with either, but Jesus is cheaper and a good player to target as he can score multiple goals and in a big game could be a major factor for City to continue their march forwards.

Alvaro Morata, Chelsea, $10,700 DK, 11,500 FD – When everybody zigs, you zag. People will look to Kane to break down City, Lacazette and Alexis to be the main players on Arsenal, for KDB, Jesus/Aguero to push Tottenham to the side. With so many options, someone like Morata would be overlooked as his price is very steep and he’s got a Questionable tag on him. But hearing Conte speak on Friday he said that Morata is ready to go and thus, I’m confident in him. He’s my pick for a high priced sleeper pick.

Marko Arnautovic, West Ham, $5,300 DK, $7.000 FD – He’s scored a goal against Chelsea, and in a matchup against the most porous defense, Arnautovic is a key player to consider. You can pivot to any of the other West Ham front line in order to get exposure to West Ham in this one.

Goalkeeper Breakdown

Well, DK finally wizened up and adjusted the pricing of goalkeepers. Home keepers are always priced higher than road keepers, in this case, the right play on goalkeeper is to go with the most likely clean sheet and hope for a couple of saves. This gives at least 5-14 points for a keeper. For this week, there are two options. Cech or Courtois as two players who can get clean sheets and wins and potentially a save or two.

Overall Defender Table (cash focus)

Central Defender Table (tournament focus)