EPL Grind Down Matchweek 19

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2018-04-04 01:47:45

With just two days off between matchweek 19 and matchweek 20, Managers will have to decide if their teams try to conserve their energy Saturday or Tuesday. It will all likely come down to the matchup, the squad depth, and whether the manager is feeling particularly strong about a specific player. The biggest hurdle here will be finding the value plays when lineups are announced. As such, an article that gives you specific plays to target will likely not be as useful Saturday given this specific week’s circumstances. In response, I’ll write a breakdown for each team today and try to look at their overall big picture and guess as to what the managers strategy will be in this match taking into account the very tough schedule ahead. But first, the odds.

The Odds

Matchup Breakdowns

Everton vs Chelsea

Everton

I’m including the early match that isn’t part of the main slate in case you want to play any of these smaller slates. Everton are playing against Chelsea at home here this week in a matchup between two teams that have combined to win eight of their last 10 matches with the teams even in form in their last six individual games. Everton in particular have found their scoring form having scored 14 goals in their last six contests across all competitions.

Everton’s key catalyst in their improved form is the rise in efficiency for Gylfi Sigurdsson and Dominic Calvert-Lewin. But these two aren’t alone, as their defense has picked up the slack as well with Jonjo Kenny, and Cuco Martina displaying solid performances in recent weeks. In addition to all that, Wayne Rooney has 10 goals so far this season putting him as the fourth highest goal scorer in the Premier League.

Everton are home underdogs, so if you’re playing this slate, then consider the defenders as they’ll be getting plenty of defensive stats as they look to keep away a strong Chelsea squad. Also, consider the goalkeeper, Jordan Pickford should see a decent share of shots on target, though with Chelsea playing without Alvaro Morata, they may not get the same number of shots you’d expect from them.

After this matchup, Everton travel to West Brom where they’ll hope to get a win, this matchup with Chelsea would be considered the harder bout and I can see players such as Rooney, and Ashely Williams rested in this one to not get injuries while youngsters such as Lookman, Calvert-Lewin and Davies getting some run against a top club.

Chelsea

The defending champs will probably not be able to maintain that title next season, but until May comes around, they will still garner the respect of the defending champs, and as such, every team steps up to play them when they come into town. This matchup in Goodison is no exception as Chelsea will try to get themselves a win here to keep the pace with Manchester City, hoping that the leaders will slip up with the tough schedule of contests in the holiday months. Of course, Chelsea are also struggling with contest scheduling as they’ve played a match every 3 days and this contest would be their seventh in December alone between the Champions League and the League Cup.

The team will be without Alvaro Morata who is suspended from the match after getting a second yellow card for time wasting against Bournemouth. The team will miss him sorely as he’s their best goal scorer. In his absence, Eden Hazard has stepped up in the role of the false 9 and has tried to get some goals for the team. Hazard did get an assist last match on the game winner, and if he gets the start again this time, he’ll have a more attacking role rather than in the midfield, obviously that depends on whether Batshuayi starts as he did in the Cup tie. The other Chelsea players that have been performing well in recent weeks are Fabregas, Pedro, Willian and Marcos Alonso who have all helped Chelsea soar through this schedule while barely missing a beat.

The next match on the schedule for Chelsea is at home to Brighton on Boxing day (December 26th) where I’m certain that Conte will feel more confident in getting all 3 points than he will against Everton. This could mean a stronger squad Saturday and if a result is secured early he’ll look to rest some of his older players who have logged more minutes.

These teams played each other in week 3 and Chelsea came way as 2-0 winners with goals from Fabregas and Morata.

Manchester City vs Bournemouth

Manchester City

Most people will look to City as the team to target in all competitions. They will likely be without David Silva who is back with his family in Spain for personal reasons. They’ll continue to be without John Stones, while Vincent Kompany may be coming back this week. City have continued to dominate all opponents while cruising to an 11 point lead in the Premier League table. They rested the majority of their starters in the midweek Cup tie with Leicester, in fact, the only regular who did play were Gabriel Jesus. The team has plenty of options to consider and Pep Guardiola will likely go with a 4-2-3-1 lineup with Aguero or Jesus up front. For lineup building, there is a way to get 2-3 City players in your lineups, with a forward and two midfielders as long as you scout out some value elsewhere. As of now, it’s unknown who plays, but I’ll expect that the ownership on City will be high as most players will target them, especially in a matchup with Bournemouth.

After this week they travel to Newcastle on the 27th, so they get an extra day rest, but I expect Pep to still try to rest whoever he can.

Bournemouth

Bournemouth haven’t won a match in seven attempts, with the latest being a 2-1 loss to Chelsea in the cup. Before that, they lost to Liverpool 4-0 at home. A Matchup on the road to the prolific Manchester City means I won’t be targeting this team at all for fantasy purposes as the expectation is that they’ll likely concede 3-4 goals.

In the first matchup between these two in week 3, Bournemouth lost to a 96th minute goal from Raheem Sterling, who was given a second yellow card 2 minutes later. Since then, City have honed in on their scoring and Bournemouth have faltered. I don’t expect a repeat of the Matchday 3 performance and City should come away with this in an easy win.

Southampton vs Huddersfield

Southampton

Winless in their last five matches, Southampton sit just three points above the relegation zone and three points behind their newly promoted opponents, Huddersfield in the table. Both these teams have had a chance to rest after not having a matchup in the midweek. Huddersfield did come away with an important 4-1 win against Watford on the road that really caught me off guard, meanwhile Southampton narrowly missed out on a draw with Chelsea after falling behind early.

Southampton aren’t a team that has performed well from a fantasy perspective this season and I won’t be putting any stock in them turning it around until I actually see it happening. In their last two weeks they have taken a total of 17 shots. Their corners aren’t consistent, in the last 3 matches they have had five separate players take corners (James Ward-Prowse may be the lead corner kick taker if he’s on the pitch though), and looking at the heatmaps, they have a very ahrd time breaking into the opponents 18 yard box as the team has not gotten a lot of touches in there. All of that tells me that outside of a tournament shot in the dark, I’ll avoid all Southampton players as they don’t do anything exceptionally well and there isn’t one player that really makes sense to spend salary on in your DFS lineups this week.

H4. Huddersfield

For Huddersfield, the team has been outperforming expectations all season. They are sitting at 21 points at the halfway point of the season with most teams needing 35 or more points to guarantee remaining the Premier League. The team has done a decent job in getting results in matches it needs to. They walked away with a 0-0 draw with Southampton in the first go around at home. And in recent weeks have wins against Watford, Brighton and West Bromwich Albion. Their losses since November have come against Bournemouth, Manchester City, Arsenal, Everton and Chelsea. With the exception of the Bournemouth match, that was a tough stretch of matches that you can’t fault the EPL newcomers for failing to get points out of them. The team doesn’t play a lot of good defense as they’ve conceded 2 goals or more 9 times so far in the Premier League. But they did have a goal scoring explosion last weekend against Watford.

The team does feature some interesting plays to consider including Collin Quaner, Laurent Depoitre, Steve Mounie for tournaments. Meanwhile, Aaron Mooy is a good cash play as he is a crossing specialist. This is a team that I don’t mind targeting some value from if you can find it. But I would be skeptical if you end up with a lineup with more than one player from this match as it has a high likelihood of being a 0-0 draw considering how both these teams play.

Stoke vs West Brom

Stoke

This is a matchup between two teams in the bottom four of the table with Stoke sitting at 16 points and West Brom sitting at 14 points. Neither team are too exciting as they both have just a single goal each in their last three, and four goals each in their last six. West Brom does have the better defense as they’ve conceded just 6 goals in that span, while Stoke have conceded 15. In fact, Stoke are the worst defensive team in the league this season as they’ve let their nets shake 39 times, while only scoring on 19 occasions.

Overall, the team is very flawed and don’t carry a lot of offensive prowess. Last match their top shot taker was Ryan Shawcross who took 4 shots with his head from crosses through both open play and corners/set pieces. This is not a sustainable offensive strategy seeing as Shawcross is a central defender.

The team struggles to keep its shape and this end up with them struggling to create good chances for the forwards. This lack of discipline is what has led to their poor results in recent weeks.

H4. West Brom

Despite a new offensive minded manager, West Brom still hasn’t cracked the code to scoring goals. They did score their first goal in four matches against Manchester United last time out despite losing 2-1. Allen Pardew has been resting some key performers in Chris Brunt, Gareth Barry and Jay Rodriguez. This match could see the baggies finally get some goals as they face the worst defense in the league.

If the team lines up in a 4-3-3 again I would consider the right wingers and the centre forward. These will likely be Jay Rodriguez and Salomon Rondon who will target Stoke defenders Pieters and Sobhi.

Brighton vs Watford

Brighton

Despite not having a win in their last six matches, Brighton are still sitting in 13th place in the table and just 4 points behind a Watford team that had been playing well up until recently. That said, I don’t think that Brighton will truly challenge in this match against Watford as they are likely to sit back in their zone and hope to come away with a draw or a breakaway goal on the counter attack.

In their last six matches, Brighton have just a single goal scored, while conceding 10 goals in return. They average less than 10 shots a game, and just a hair above 2 shots on target a game. This means there aren’t a lot of options at forward that I’d like to consider. As for the midfield, their best two options are Pascal Gross and Solly March as they both take crosses with Gross being the corner kick taker. On defense, you could go with the central defenders as there should be some value there as Shane Duffy is suspended and whoever replaces him will be a very cheap value option on FanDuel for blocks, clearances, interceptions and tackles. Also, you could consider the goalkeeper as Mat Ryan has proven the ability to get several saves in a match to help a team win a GPP.

Watford

Watford come into this one on the heels of a very disappointing 4-1 loss to Huddersfield. They’ve actually had a very bad run lately with losses to Crystal Palace, and Burnley to add to their woes. The team has not won in their last 5 matches and things aren’t looking up for them.

Nevertheless, the matchup with a Brighton side that isn’t very good should be the shot in the arm the team needs. Richarlison and Doucoure are the best options on attack and worth consideration. Richarlison specifically for tournaments as the Brazilian has the ability to score goals in any matchup.

The oddsmakers actually have Watford as underdogs in this one, but this is a good matchup for them to rebound and get a result.
h3. Swansea vs Crystal Palace

Swansea

The Welsh club have not been playing very well lately as they have just 3 wins on the season and just one in their last eleven matches in all competitions. They are still in last place in the Premier League and after a promising start, the young Tammy Abraham has failed to score a goal since mid October and has not started in 3 matches and in the last game where he came on and played 85 minutes had 0 shots in that time frame against Everton.

The team lacks a solid presence in the midfield as Renato Sanchez doesn’t look like the EuroCup champion coup that Swans fans imagined when he came over on loan from Bayern Munich. And Wilfried Bony came off after just 5 minutes with a hamstring injury against Everton. Leon Britton will likely continue in a 4-1-4-1 formation with Dyer and Ayew on the wings. Ayew may play a role in this game, but likely would struggle to produce solid fantasy results, thus I would pass on him.

Crystal Palace

Without Benteke in this matchup, Roy Hodgson will look for Bakary Sako to start in his place. In his last two matches off the bench Sako scored twice. He was rather pesky in scoring his last goal and was very persistent to prove his worth. He’ll likely partner up front with Wilfried Zaha in a 4-4-2. I like both of them in my lineups if they get the start.

If you are looking for a cheap midfielder who takes penalty kicks but otherwise provides 3-5 DK points a match, then look to Luka Milivojevic who will step up to the spot in a penalty situation, but do little else fantasy related.

Overall, this Palace team should come away with a win against Swansea. They’ve managed to have a run of good results in recent weeks and will continue this run to get further away from the relegation zone as this team is far too talented to hang around there for too long.

West Ham vs Newcastle

West Ham

West Ham followed up their surprise win against Chelsea with a 0-0 draw against Arsenal then a well earned 3-0 win against Stoke. This week they host a struggling Newcastle team at home in what is expected to be a winnable match for the Hammers.

Since the appointment of David Moyes Marko Arnautovic has excelled, specifically in his last few matches where he has 2 goals scored including last time out against Stoke. Expect him to continue that trend where he takes shots from close to the goal and gets close to scoring. Others to consider for this West Ham squad are Chicharito (Javier Hernandez) and Michail Antonio who both will play in advanced roles and are in a good matchup against a Newcastle team that hasn’t kept a clean sheet except for once away from home this season, and that came against Swansea back in September.

West Ham also boasts a solid goalkeeper option in Adrian and full backs that can get crosses when they push forward. However, without knowing the lineups ahead of time, I’d wait to find value defenders when lineups are released on Saturday morning.

Newcastle

Newcastle come into this matchup having not won in nine attempts in the Premier League and garnering just a single point in that span. The team will try to fix things but that will be easier said than done as they need a complete change in performance in order to truly start getting results that would help the Magpies stay up.

Looking at their results recently, the team has not been able to garner possession in the majority of their matches, and while they did control the match against Everton, they ended up finishing the game with 10 men after Shelvey got a second yellow and they ended up losing anyway.

Jacob Murphy and Christian Atsu along with Matt Ritchie are the likely fantasy options to consider here in a cash game, though I would consider avoiding this team altogether and not wasting salary on anybody from the Toons.

Burnley vs Tottenham

Burnley

The final match of the Saturday pits Burnley against Tottenham in a surprising matchup that features Burnley ahead of the Spurs in the table with 32 points while Tottenham has just 31 points. What Burnley have done this season is nothing short of remarkable as they’ve managed to create a very solid defense that concedes shots, but also blocks more shots than anybody in the league. They successfully play a solid midfield match that allows the opponent to hold the ball but otherwise keeps them from threatening the goal. This match will be at home for the Clarets who have won four of their last six at home with the single loss being a 1-0 loss to Arsenal and a draw against West Ham (1-1). They come into this matchup looking to continue their run of good form as they look for pulling off a miracle and qualifying for European contests next season if they finish in the top 5 (they are currently sixth)

Burnley run a very tight ship and thus most of their games end up being low scoring affairs. With this being the late game and with the majority of people stacking Manchester City, that means that there will be very low ownership on players from this matchup. You can take advantage of this in tournaments with players like Chris Wood and Johann Berg Gudmundsson from the Burnley side. They are however going up against a Tottenham side that is solid on defense despite some recent struggles that could lead some to believe that Burnley are a solid offensive option. For that I suggest you temper your excitement as I don’t think that Burnley will get more than 10 shots in this match with 2 of them on target at most.

Tottenham

Tottenham are without a win away from home in their last five attempts with just a single point to show for it. In that span they have been outscored 3-10 by their opponents. Of course, they did face a tough stretch of schedule of Manchester United, Arsenal, and Manchester City along with Leicester and Watford. All teams that have been playing well. Of course, Burnley have been playing well as well, so this makes matters tough for the Spurs.
The team is going to be looking for ways to get around their tough schedule. The biggest problem has been that the team relies heavily on 3-4 players in Kane, Eriksen, and Son on attack as those three make up 70% of the goal scoring for the Spurs, and 33% of the assists in the Premier League.

Kane will garner some attention from those who think he’s a viable alternative to Aguero/Jesus, and Eriksen will also get some attention for those who want to pivot off of Kevin De Bruyne. I don’t think either are bad decisions, but they are not the optimal decision when lineup building.

Tottenham is likely to fire off close to 30 shots in this game as Burnley are adept at allowing opponents to shoot but not to score. I expect that Kane and Eriksen would combine for 15 shots between them. The biggest risk is whether these two sit this match to prepare for the Boxing day matchup against Southampton at home, where the Spurs should be more favored to win.

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