EPL Grind Down: Matchweek 2

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2017-10-06 19:29:32

The second week of the EPL is here with six Saturday matches, and both DK and FD are offering some contests that are worth entering. Of course, they are slightly smaller than opening weekend and the interest in soccer seems to wane as NFL season kicks off, meaning that the interest will likely keep shrinking along with the size of the contests as the season progresses. The hope is that we’ll see the contests then grow back as Christmas and Boxing day approach. We’ve already seen a movement from DK adding a pickem game to the EPL contests for the week, they also had their DropZone qualifiers in play for a relegation type contest with 20 teams that is qualifier only. So the innovation is there for soccer, meaning that the season will continue to get bigger gearing up to a World Cup year next summer.

In the meantime, we still have 37 more weeks left of EPL contests as well as UCL and international breaks to take in and fill out our lineups (and hopefully our bankrolls). But first, I want to talk really quick about last week that saw some seriously unexpected results between Huddersfield defeating Palace 3-0 and Chelsea losing to Burnley 3-2. The biggest mistake to make after Matchweek 1 is to be too reactionary when evaluating matches going forward. Huddersfield are still going to be a bad team as the season goes on, and Burnley are still going to do worse on the road than at home. Of course, it may be time to stack teams against Palace for a few weeks and reap the benefits until they get their acts together, but otherwise, I would caution taking too much out of Matchweek 1 contests.

With that, here are the game by game breakdowns of Saturday slate contests

Southampton vs West Ham

Southampton						West Ham
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				1.735						5.41
				D D L W D L						D D D W L W
				12-10-16						12-9-17
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
14.47	4.58			24.92	0.00	13.13	3.53			19.79	0.00
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Austin, Gabbiadini, Tadic, Bertrand, Ward-Prowse, Davis		Tadic, Ward- Prowse, Redmond, Yoshida		Ward-Prowse, Tadic,  Davis, Bertrand		Noble, Lanzini, Carroll, Arnautovic		Noble, Arnautovic, Lanzini, Snodgrass, Cresswell		Lanzini, Noble, Arnautovic, Snodgrass, Cresswell

West Ham visit Southampton this week for what should be an interesting matchup between two teams that on paper look pretty even. West Ham were soundly defeated last week by a much better Manchester United to the tune of 4 goals to none. Meanwhile Southampton failed to score against arguably one of the weakest teams in the league in Swansea. The Saints did record the most shots in week one among all teams. Failing to score could potentially see them making changes in their line with Gabbiadini making way for Charlie Austin. On the other side, Chicharito and Arnautovic shore up the lines for this West Ham team and potentially gives them a chance to put in a solid effort on the road against the Saints.

The odds makers favor Southampton in a big way this week, and part of that is probably the losing performance for West Ham last week, though Manchester United are my early favorite to win the title this season with their own improvements over the offseason.

Southampton Top Plays

Ryan Bertrand, $5,500 FD, $5,400 DK – Bertrand makes for a great defense option if you want to spend up at that position. It’s easy to see why Bertrand makes a good option on defense on account of his offensive production. Bertrand shares taking corners with Ward-Prowse but he’s also eligible for clean sheet options. With West Ham featuring too many new forward options, the chances of a clean sheet are high.

Dusan Tadic, $7,000 FD, $7,800 DK – Tadic took eight crosses last week and four shots on his way to 15 DK fantasy points without scoring a goal or assisting. If he can change that output this week he’ll be able to really pay off his slightly above average salary of a midfielder on both sites. Though on a site like FanDuel, he’s eclipsed in salary by Redmond and Romeu. Romeu was a high performer last week but I dont knot if we’ll see the same output once again, or if it stops this week. Redmond is a good option however at probably much lower ownership than Tadic, and could be a decent selection.

Southampton Secondary Plays

Charlie Austin, $6,000 FD, $7,200 DK – Austin didn’t get the start last week on account of Gabbiadini starting, and while Gabbiadini took five shots with one of them hitting the post, there is reasoning to believe that Austin will get the start this week. Austin really hasn’t been heard from since he started with QPR two seasons ago. Last season he was rattled by injuries and when he finally came back, he struggled to get into the lineup. Austin however is a very capable forward and if he gets the start he’s definitely one play I would consider on my teams because of the potential low ownership.

West Ham Top Plays

None

West Ham Secondary Plays

Javier Hernandez, $7,000 FD, $5,800 DK – The Hammers summer signing still hasn’t found his way on the team, and likely won’t do so for a few more weeks, but at his price on FanDuel and DraftKings he’s a great tournament option if you’re looking to take a chance on a player with tremendous pedigree and ability that may not pay off. We know that players generally don’t perform as well on the road as they do at home, but there are always exceptions ot the rule every week.

Bournemouth vs Watford

Bournemouth						Watford
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				2.01						3.98
				L W W D W D						L L L L L L
				12-10-16						11-7-20
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
11.92	4.16			16.50	0.00	11.11	3.71			18.05	0.00
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Wilson, Defoe, King, Stanislas, Afobe, Arter		Arter, Fraser		Stanislas, Daniels, Fraser, Arter, Pugh, Gradel		Deeney, Gray		Holebas		Watson, Capoue, Holebas

Playing at home in this matchup, the Cherries will be looking to turn it around after a tough 1-0 loss to West Brom on the road last week. Meanwhile, their opponent, Watford, will be looking to build on their 3-3 draw with Liverpool which was a steal considering the matchup and the fact that they were in danger of losing after going to a 2-1 lead but for a late 93rd minute goal from Miguel Britos that salvaged a home point against one of the title favorites this season. What Bournemouth do well is control possession. We saw last week with them holding 70% of possession on the road against West Brom, with them being at home in this one, I expect them to win the possession battle, and while Defoe didn’t start last match (due to fitness) he should be ready to start in this one and will look to make a mark on this match.

On the other side of the ball, Watford have a lot in flux at the moment with plenty of players on the verge of returning from injury, thier manager Marco Silva has many decisions to make to decide whether his team remains the same and maintains the same lineup or adjusts to beat this week’s opponent.

This match has all the makings for a low scoring affair as both teams will try to control the midfield, which will lead to low scoring on DraftKings, meanwhile, the scoring should increase on FanDuel which relies more on peripheral statistics than goals (though goals are important everywhere).

Bournemouth Top Plays

Jermain Defoe, $7,000 FD, $6,600 DK – After coming off the bench last week Defoe is poised to get a full start this time around and hopefully get more involved in the proceedings of the match. Last time in 26 minutes he managed just five touches and -0.5 fantasy points. This should get a lot of people off his scent as he’s facing a team that he can definitely score against.

Asmir Begovic, $4,000 FD, $5,100 DK – In what should be a close match, the home keeper is somewhat an interesting choice. He’s not exactly the home underdog, but if you’re looking for a relatively cheap goalkeeper option on FanDuel then Begovic should be the choice. On DK he’s more expensive and likely won’t merit much consideration, though would make an interesting tournament pivot.

Bournemouth Secondary Plays

Nathan Ake, $6,500 FD, $3,900 DK – Ake racked up the defensive stats last week as he accumulated 20.5 FD points and 8 DK points for a solid outing considering his price on both sites. I expect these numbers to continue throughout the season making Ake a mainstay for this team fantasywise and I also expect him to contribute a goal or three, so having him on some lineups guards against the randomness that could come from goals from a central defender.

Watford Top Plays

Jose Holebas, $7,000 FD, $5,000 DK – One assist, eight clearances, five tackles, three interceptions, five crosses, two tackles won, a shot and one chance created. That was Holebas’ line last week against Liverpool. This week he likely won’t match those numbers, but he’s a worthy pick in both sites and all formats. He’s priced high however and likely makes it so you have to take extreme value in other positions in order to fill out your roster.

Watford Secondary Plays

Richarlison, $6,500 FD, $3,900 DK – He’s not a lock to start, but he’s a potential to do so given his performance against Liverpool last weekend. He’s priced very cheap and while he may end up being a trap pick, he’s worth considering since his performance was so good last time out and he has a chance to repeat that this week in a better matchup. Of course, if Watford return the majority of their injured players, Richarlison may not get a start here, but the youngster has shown his manager that he’s earned a chance and should benefit from a relatively easy fixture on the road.

Burnley vs West Bromwich Albion

Burnley						West Bromwich Albion
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				2.55						3.19
				L L W D L L						L L D L L L
				11-7-20						12-9-17
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
10.32	3.03			17.08	0.00	10.50	3.21			20.16	0.00
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Vokes, Barnes, Walters		Brady, Arfield, Hendrick		Brady, Arfield, Defour, Gudmundsson		Chadli, Morrison, Brunt		Brunt, Rondon, Morrison		Phillips, Brunt, McClean, Morrison,

Two teams that had interesting matches last time out. Burnley came away with an away match at the Bridge over the defending champions. This after a season last year where they were dismal away from home. It looks like they are determined on expelling that mentality to start this season. West Brom managed a goal from a central defender to come away from a match against Bournemouth at home as winners. Both teams will want to walk away from this one with three points. I expect a defensive battle. Tony Pulis teams generally perform well on defense, while Burnley were very solid at home last season. This isn’t going to shape to be a strong offensive matchup. (of course, this probably means they score 7 goals between them and this game stack wins GPPs… oh well)

Burnley Top Plays

Robbie Brady, $6,500 FD, $6,800 DK – With 10 crosses last time out, Brady is the heart of this Burnley midfield. And considering that this is expected to be a midfield battle with the majority of the action coming in the middle of the pitch, the chance of fantasy output comes from midfielders. Brady has a skillset that makes him perfect for the DK game with his crossing ability. He’s hoping that Vokes puts himself in a position to get some of these balls and scores goals like he did against Chelsea last week to give Brady some much needed assist points.

Burnley Secondary Plays

Ben Mee, $5,500 FD, $3,200 DK – Last season’s top scoring central defender duo were Mee and Keane. With Keane’s departure and him being replaced with Tarkowski, you can look to these two to rack up the defensive stats on FanDuel. Tarkowski managed to get the majority of the clearances on FD last week. With this match being at home, I’m going to guess that the majority of defensive stats are captured by Mee this time with Tarkowski being a close 2nd to him.

West Bromwich Albion Top Plays

Chris Brunt, $6,500 FD, $6,000 DK – Brunt is the midfield option I like this week for West Brom. He’s contending with Phillips for the spot, and there are still Rondon and Chadli on the bench. I expect that Brunt and Phillips are still the main creators in the midfield and will look to target new forward Jay Rodriguez who will be looking for this first goal of the season. For GPPs I wouldn’t hesitate to pair up Brunt and Rodriguez for a 1-2 punch of underowned players who could come away with a pair of goals between them. That said, they are likely to come away with no goals, but Brunt would have some floor that you can use to baseline your team with.

West Bromwich Albion Secondary Plays

Ahmed Hegazi, $6,000 FD, $3,100 DK – West Brom newcomer, Egyptian Ahmed Hegazi, scored his first Premier League goal in his first Premier League match. Not a bad turnout for a central defender who stands at 6’5” and prides himself on being a defensive rock. He won’t likely score too many more goals, but he managed 10 clearances at home last time, and should produce similar outputs this week as well. This performance should make him endearing on both FanDuel and DraftKings where he finished with 13 points including three interceptions and a clean sheet. He’s also a big man who plans on going forward for set pieces and that will help his fantasy appeal greatly especially if he converts goals at an above average clip for a central defender.

Leicester vs Brighton

Leicester						Brighton
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				1.781						5.1
				L W W L L D
				12-8-18						#N/A
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
11.39	3.82			19.24	0.00
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Mahrez, Slimani, Vardy, Ulloa		Mahrez, Fuchs, Drinkwater, Albrighton, Gray		Mahrez, Albrighton, Fuchs, , Drinkwater, James, Gray		Murray, Hemed		Knockaert, Gross, Stephens, Skalak, March		Knockaert, Gross, Stephens, Skalak, March, Dunk, Bruno, Kayal, Murphy

Leicester are going to go into this one attack minded looking to take advantage of the newcomers to the Premier League. Last week they started in a 4-2-3-1 with Okazaki and Vardy both starting. This week they might switch to an attacking 4-4-1-1 with Vardy still leading the line, Okazaki or Iheanacho right behind him and Albrighton and Mahrez on the wings. Vardy scored twice against the Gunners last Friday and may continue his goal scoring this week against a weaker Brighton squad, making it truly a Vardy party for two weeks in a row.

What Brighton bring to the table is tepidness after a 2-0 defeat last time out after holding their own for a good portion of the match against Manchester City. Izzy Brown had to leave early because of injury, and they ended the match just a shade over 20% possession. Leicester are not a possession-centric team but they’ll probably put the pressure on the Seagulls in this one to come away with a necessary 3 points at home.

Leicester Top Plays

Marc Albrighton, $8,000 FD, $6,900 DK – Albrighton was a regular cash game play last season and should continue to be so this season in matchups that favor him. Lucky for us this week, this matchup against a newly promoted club that will want to sit back on defense should favor him and allow for fantasy points to accumulate through crosses, shots and chances created. Albrighton has a high floor than Mahrez, but a lower ceiling, and on DK and FD you’re saving roughly $1500 by sticking with the higher floor option.

Jamie Vardy, $10,000 FD, $7,500 DK – Like I said above, it looks to be a Vardy Party this week, as Jamie Vardy has one of the highest chances to score this weekend. Vardy is facing a team that he can score easily against, and will be looking to continue adding to his tally throughout the match. I expect him to settle on just a single goal however and for Leicester to win comfortably.

Leicester Secondary Plays

None

Brighton Top Plays

Anthony Knockaert, $6,500 FD, $5,500 DK – Knockaert should get the start this week with the injury to Izzy Brown. He’s priced pretty cheap on DK and may end up being a 7-8K player when the season is over. His performance this week is solely a tournament selection only and shouldn’t be considered for cash games.

Brighton Secondary Plays

None

Liverpool vs Crystal Palace

Liverpool						Crystal Palace
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				1.353						10.23
				W L W D W W						W L L L W L
				22-10-6						12-5-21
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
16.84	6.11			21.37	0.00	11.55	3.50			22.95	0.00
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Firmino, Milner, Henderson, Sturridge, Coutinho		Henderson, Milner, Coutinho, Sturridge, Alexander-Arnold		Milner, Henderson, Coutinho, Firmino		Milivojevic,  Benteke, Cabaye, Wickham		Milivojevic, Puncheon, Cabaye, van Aanholt		Puncheon, Cabaye, van Aanholt

The matchup between Liverpool and Palace is an interesting one. Liverpool had a Champions League fixture in the midweek and Palace lost Zaha for a few matches at around the same time. Both teams had a very disappointing first week, though Palace’s week was much more disappointing having lost 3-0 to newly promoted and the preseason relegation favorite, Huddersfield. Liverpool failed to win a match they should have taken care of against Watford and instead conceded three goals on way to a 3-3 draw. The Reds looked lost on defense, especially on set pieces and on open play crosses. The good news for them though is that without Zaha, Palace are much less threatening from the cross than with him, though they still have some solid options that we’ll talk about further down the page.

Liverpool may end up rotating some players, and while they looked better against Hoffenheim in the Champions League, they still face the uncertainty of who will sit and who will start going into this matchup with Palace. The team will still be missing Coutinho who remains wanted by Barcelona, though the clock is ticking on the Spanish giant to make a move to pry him away from Anfield.

Palace will have to shift things around without Zaha, perhaps putting Townsend on the wing further up front, and relying on him to deliver crosses to Benteke. They also will be getting Cabaye and McArthur back from injury that could shore up their defensive midfield. Liverpool has been employing a high press this season, which Klopp likes, and they may be fatigued after playing twice last week. It will be interesting to see how the players respond and whether some players end up coming off early to make up for the tight scheduling.

Liverpool Top Plays

Trent Alexander-Arnold, $5,000 FD, $3,900 DK – He’s been starting at the full back position instead of James Milner and has been producing similar on-the-pitch production as him. While Jurgen Klopp may choose to rotate the squad this match resting Alexander-Arnold, if he does get the start, he’s extremely cheap on both sites (but moreso on DK) and is almost a must play in order to block the vast majority of the players who will have him on their rosters.

Mohamed Salah, $10,500 FD, $8,500 DK – Mo Salah got close several times last week to score and had a few missed opportunities against Hoffenheim as well. Despite all that, he’s still managed to score a goal and draw a penalty for Liverpool. He’s extremely fast and very energetic and should be looking to prove himself some more this season as a difference maker for Liverpool.

Liverpool Secondary Plays

Roberto Firmino, $11,000 FD, $9,100 DK – Firmino takes penalty kicks for this team. He also had a shot heading close to goal before Salah tipped it in giving Salah credit for the goal. The two of them will work together along with Mane to give Liverpool a very potent attack that will threaten to score 3 goals every week. This week I like Firmino as a secondary option because I think he gets subbed off at some point, especially if Liverpool are comfortably ahead in the second half in order to prepare for the UCL game coming up in just 4 days after this match.

Crystal Palace Top Plays

Andros Townsend, $6,000 FD, $7,000 DK – Without Zaha, Townsend will likely take the majority of the touches that he took over last time out. This also means that Palace will try to repeat what Watford did last weekend by confusing Liverpool in the back and creating chances for their big man Benteke in the middle. Townsend will likely create 2-3 chances and take 5-8 crosses with 1-2 shots. Liverpool still have problems on defense they haven’t fixed yet, and if Townsend and Benteke get their act together, they can force Liverpool to sweat this week’s match a little.

Crystal Palace Secondary Plays

Christian Benteke, $6,500 FD, $6,900 DK – Benteke is a former Liverpool player who was ushered out of town after failing to impress. He’s since done well for himself at Crystal Palace, but he’s going to struggle a little without Zaha being there to deliver some crosses. Nevertheless, the big man will still take his chances and would be a good play to add into your lineups for tournaments as he likely will go underowned considering all the other options out there.

Stoke vs Arsenal

Stoke						Arsenal
				Vegas Odds						Vegas Odds
				4.33						1.892
				W L D D L W						L W W W W W
				11-11-16						23-6-9
Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm	Sh/Gm	SoT/Game	Shots A/Gm	Shots A in box /Gm	Cross/Gm	Cross A/Gm
11.18	3.45			18.89	0.00	14.89	5.18			18.34	0.00
Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks		Penalties		Direct Free Kicks		Corners & Indirect Free Kicks
Adam, Bojan, Shaqiri		Adam, Shaqiri		Allen, Shaqiri, Adam, Affelay		Lacazette, Sanchez, Giroud, Ozil, Welbeck		Sanchez, Cazorla, Ozil, Walcott		Xhaka, Ozil, Cazorla, Sanchez, Walcott, Chamberlain

The final match of the weekend is Arsenal visiting Stoke. Arsenal have a lot of fresh bodies to consider for this match and they have no shortage of decisions that we’ll wait to see how they play out. They likely start in a 3-4-2-1 with either Lacazette or Giroud starting at striker, while the other falls back next to Ozil. This hurts Lacazette’s chances as he’s likely to be the one who falls back as a supporting attacker. Arsenal did come away last weekend with a 4-3 win over Leicester, meanwhile Stoke lost a close match 1-0 to Everton courtesy of Wayne Rooney. I don’t expect this match to be very high scoring, though Stoke have had their troubles in the past getting their defense in check. They only allowed 9 shots on the road last week and while Arsenal are a better team on offense than Everton, it is still early in the season and without Alexis Sanchez, Arsenal does have some weaknesses on offense they’ll look to overcome.

Stoke played in a 3-4-2-1 last weekend with Berahino leading the line, he was flanked by Shaqiri and Bojan. The team doesn’t have any fresh injury concerns, but they’ll likely switch to a four man back line to provide a deeper defense and may replace Berahino with newcomer Jese Rodriguez who came over from Real Madrid by way of PSG.

Stoke Top Plays

Xherdan Shaqiri, $6,000 FD, $7,200 DK – Shaqiri takes free kicks for this team, and the little Swiss man likes to bully his way into the box and put pressure on the keeper. Of course, he’s facing an Arsenal team that has Petr Cech between the sticks, so he’s unlikely to catch him out of position or intimidate him too much. Nevertheless, Shaqiri is a good player who might fulfill some fantasy production this week, especially since Arsenal’s defense conceded 3 goals last time out against Leicester.

Jack Butland, $5,000 FD, $3,900 DK – The home underdog keeper is back again with Butland playing the role this time. Butland has the support of the home crowd and facing a team that will be on the road and taking some shots. Moreover, Butland is a talented keeper that should manage to deliver some fantasy production, especially considering his price of $3,900 on DK. Meanwhile, his price on FD is high and probably worth taking over there as well considering the scoring algorithm on FanDuel.

Stoke Secondary Plays

Kurt Zouma, $5,000 FD, $2,700 DK – Speaking of the scoring algorithm on FanDuel, central defenders for an underdog tend to get a lot of clearances, tackles, and interceptions. All things that Zouma should be able to accumulate in bunches in this one. He’s a cheap option on FanDuel compared to Ryan Shawcross who is $7K but offers similar output to his teammate, making Zouma a good choice over there.

Arsenal Top Plays

Alexandre Lacazette, $11,000 FD, $9,000 DK – The Frenchman scored a goal in his last match and his EPL debut for Arsenal, and will look to continue that this week. If he does end up starting at the attacking midfield position behind Giroud, then Giroud gets the nod over him with Lacazette shifting to a secondary option instead, though I would rank Ozil ahead of him in that case.

Arsenal Secondary Plays

Mesut Ozil, $10,500 FD, $8,300 DK – Ozil had 12 assists last season for Arsenal across both the UCL and the EPL, and he’ll probably continue that trend this season as well especially after tallying 19 the year before that. Look for Ozil to continue to create chances and opportunities for his teammates and to put pressure on the defenses this year. The matchup with Stoke should be a good one for him to open up his account this season. He’s a GPP option though considering this is an away game, but he’s a worthy option.