EPL Grind Down: Matchweek 21

Happy New Year! Teams are gearing up for two games separated by just 2 days and with a run of 8 games in just 22 odd days, the players are all tired and managers are relying heavily on their deep rotations. That makes understanding the team’s strategies doubly important. That said, this week the Grind Down should get you set for the Saturday contests and help you navigate the often-confusing squad rotations that show up this time of year.

We’ll start with the odds, then I’ll provide a match-by-match breakdown. Finally, I’ll include tables that help me focus my attention on players to select in cash games and tournaments as well as tables that help identify defenders for cash and tournament purposes.

The Odds

Home Odds Away Odds
Bournemouth 142 Everton 231
Chelsea -550 Stoke 1906
Huddersfield 133 Burnley 265
Liverpool -304 Leicester 862
Newcastle United 112 Brighton 319
Watford -136 Swansea 459
Manchester United -273 Southampton 873
Crystal Palace 1196 Manchester City -387
West Brom 439 Arsenal -143

Matchup Breakdown

There are a number of interesting matchups this week starting with Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United hosting Stoke, Leicester and Southampton respectively. We also have three other matchups that feature rising teams in various positions that could impact our roster builds in Everton, Burnley and Watford. We’ll examine each of these games one by one and I’ll try to give my recommendations for squad rotation and areas to focus.

Chelsea vs Stoke

Stoke are going to be severely short handed on the defensive side. They will be missing Ryan Shawcross for at least a couple of weeks. Kurt Zouma is ineligible to face Chelsea as they are his parent club. Mark Hughes (Stoke Manager) has an outside chance of getting Erik Pieters back at left back, if he fails to prove fit then Josh Tymon will get the start. American Geoff Cameron will likely start at center back alongside Kevin Wimmer. These two are going to be somewhat problematic as the last time Wimmer started at center back was against West Ham, where Stoke conceded 3 goals. And on the season, Wimmer has played 856 minutes at center back and in that time he commits a high number of fouls, is not a very good tackler, and has a whoscored rating of 6.34 which is almost a point lower than his rating when he plays on the wing. He will be the weaker of the two central defenders, and while Cameron isn’t a natural at the spot, he is better at clearances and overall positioning. Chelsea will be looking to take advantage of the Stoke weakened defenses.

Stoke are coming off a couple of matches where they’ve gotten results. With four points in their last two matches they are now sitting in 13th place but are just 3 points ahead of the relegation zone. If they can buckle up and manage to come away with some points against the Defending Champs, they’ll be elated. However, the more realistic option is to hold Chelsea to two goals or less and hope that a defensive lapse on a counter attack gives them a goal or two in return.

Chelsea came alive in the second half against Brighton after looking lifeless in the first half. The second half saw them get more attempts on target with two goals to show for it. They managed better play on the wings from their full backs and from their attacking mids. Specifically, Victor Moses, and Marcos Alonso were difference makers in the second half. I can see the Conte sitting Moses this match to give Zappacosta a start.

Chelsea’s attacking options are all in play here, with the likely targets being Hazard and Morata as the key ones to target. If Conte goes with a 3-5-1-1 then the wing backs (Moses/Zappacosta and Alonso) are in play. If he starts Willian and/or Pedro then they will likely line up in a 3-4-2-1 and then that lowers the wing backs effectivity and spreads the touches among five or six attacking players.

Fabregas is still a key player to target. He had seven key passes against Brighton and that resulted in an assist. Chelsea completely dominated the last match with 25 shots to 8 from Brighton. And almost two thirds possession. That domination was in large part because of the roles that Kante and Fabregas play in the midfield where Kante’s excellence allows for Cesc to venture forward and orchestrate the attacks. Fabregas is priced at just $7,600 on DraftKings, but is an expensive $10,000 on FanDuel making him harder to take on FD but easy to consider on DK.

For tournaments I would consider Morata and Hazard for my teams. Especially Hazard as he has been rather hungry to score goals lately with no scoring or assists in five matches despite being very active and despite Chelsea getting close several times.

For Stoke, it’s hard to consider anybody from this team since they will struggle with possession and will not be able to break down Chelsea as easy. Shaqiri is a potential for a breakaway goal, but otherwise, I would steer clear from Stoke, especially with them being on the road.

Liverpool vs Leicester

After a solid run that saw Leicester get four wins in a row through the middle of December, the tight schedule finally got the best of them as they have now dropped points in three straight matches including a humiliating loss 3-0 to Crystal Palace at home two weeks ago. Liverpool meanwhile have continued to up their offensive juggernaut status with scoring three goals or more in three of their last six matches including a 5-0 win against Swansea at home.

Liverpool are predictably heavily favored in this match as they are coming off a run of good matches and are arguably the second best offense in the Premier League. That fact is backed up by their goal scoring total which is second after Manchester City. Liverpool will look to push forward as much as possible to give themselves a win against a team that should be tougher than the odds makers are seemingly predicting.

Leicester has had some solid results against the top six teams since their new manager took over in beating Tottenham, snagging a late equalizer against Manchester United and losing in penalties to Manchester City in the Carabao cup. I expect that the match will be close with chances taken by both sides.

For Liverpool, the front three of Salah, Coutinho, and Firmino should be in consideration in any GPP team you build as any of the front three can carry the offensive load. Liverpool has also been rotating the full backs and any one who starts can get in on any scoring. The team does not have a specific set piece taker that can be targeted for cash contests every week. If Mane does get the start then he is a good cheap option to exposure to this squad’s offense.

For Leicester, the cash game option is Marc Albrighton as he will take the set pieces and corners for this team. He’s also a good open play crosser. The only problem with him is that he’s not going to get a lot of opportunities in this matchup where Leicester aren’t expected to get a lot of possession so that takes him away as a cash game option.

For Tournaments, Mahrez and Vardy are the duo to consider. I think Liverpool have shown a weakness on defense this season (as evidenced by their record breaking acquisition of Van Dijk that will go through in January), so you can expect that Mahrez and Vardy could break through here and score a goal to make this matchup interesting.

Manchester United vs Southampton

The Saints have a run of two matches in a row on the road against top six teams culminating in this trip to Old Trafford. Their last match was against a Tottenham side that saw Kane score a hat-trick against them. The team has struggled defensively this season having not kept a clean sheet in 11 weeks with just a single win in that span. In the meantime, they have no wins in their last seven getting outscored 15-7 and only scoring more than a single goal once and that was on boxing day against Tottenham.

This match will feature some Manchester United goals. United will be looking to reverse their fortunes that have left them dropping points in three of their last five matches and bowing out of the League Cup to Bristol City.

Mourinho will likely start in an attacking 4-3-3 with Lukaku flanked by Mata and Rashford. There are other options in attack in Mkhitaryan and Lingard as well as Ibrahimovic. So the choices are tough to narrow down. However, I would expect that Lukaku is the best tournament option from this squad given his price compared to other strikers on the other two top six teams in play this week.

Southampton on the other hand are a terrible offensive team as they average just a goal a game and they are not reliable, their offensive display will be hampered even further this week as they go against a top defensive team in Manchester United who have conceded the third least goals of any team in the EPL.

This of course puts De Gea as a potential DFS option as a clean sheet and win. He’s also going to be useful as a late game hammer to setup for the dramatic come from behind victory.

Southampton continue to be a black hole offensively and on my black list. Don’t take anybody from them. #DeadtoMe

Watford vs Swansea

I like this game for one reason and one reason alone. Richarlison. It’s been a while since the Brazilian has graced us with a goal, specifically since gameweek 12. In that span however, he’s been firing shots like crazy. With a defense like Swansea, he’s bound to break that drought against this Swans team.

If you want other options from Watford, then you should definitely consider either Cleverly or Holebas as they have been splitting corners and open play crosses. If Holebas is not starting then definitely getting Cleverly in your squads makes sense for cash games as he’s cheap enough and allows you to spend up elsewhere.

For offense, Doucoure, Carrillo and the two full backs (Janmaat and Zeegelaar) get plenty of touches in the final third with Doucoure being the most likely to score a goal in this setup.

I don’t trust Watford to get a clean sheet here, so looking to their goalkeeper isn’t a good option for clean sheets.

If we’re not expecting a clean sheet from Watford, then we expect that Swansea will at least threaten the goal on the other side. In this case, Tammy Abraham should be getting the start again without Bony (out with a hamstring) and with spot starter McBurnie proving unable to get much going against a superior Liverpool squad. Abraham is a talented youngster that I’ve hung my hat on several times and expect him to come through this week. He’s priced pretty cheap on both DK and FD ($4.6K on DK and $7K on FD).

Also for Swansea, you could consider Jordan Ayew who scored a goal against Crystal Palace in matchday 19. Also worth consideration is Martin Olsson who can produce crosses and gets plenty of touches in the final third in the right situation.

Bournemouth vs Everton

Bournemouth come into this home matchup with Everton on a bit of a lull as they have failed to get a win in any of their contests since mid November. The team is looking to close 2017 on a high note as they host the Toffees. Oddsmakers also believe this will be a close matchup with the home team as a slight favorite to get the win.

Examining the schedule shows us that Bournemouth just went through their toughest stretch of their schedule with four straight matches against top six teams they were outscored 11-1 before coming back two days ago against West Ham and getting a point in a 3-3 decision with a point rescued by Callum Wilson in the 92nd minute. While Bournemouth were helped with a last minute decision that preserved their equalizer, the team did give up two goals after getting ahead 2-1 showing that they can be a good offensive team and a lousy defensive team at the same time.

Ryan Fraser and Jordan Ibe are the most reliable crossers on the team, but the team isn’t generally a good crossing team as they tend to rely on a slow buildup for their attacks. I wouldn’t really target anybody from Bournemouth for cash games.

As for Everton, they recently completed a move that will be finalized in January for the addition of Tosun, a striker from Turkey who should give the team some forceful goal scoring and to give Rooney and Sigurdsson a striker to get the ball to as Everton has had trouble in that department as they currently sit at a -6 goal differential on the season and their top goal scorer is 32 year old Wayne Rooney.

This match is likely to remain a low scoring affair as both these teams tend to teeter in and out of solid performances. Everton is currently sitting at 9th place and is looking to push into the top 7 as they are just six points behind Arsenal who are in sixth place. Bournemouth need a win here as they are sitting in the relegation zone, but just a point outside of safety.

For cash games, there aren’t a lot of good options here. Sigurdsson is decent for Everton but he hasn’t really provided a lot of goals or assists for the team this season. Rooney takes penalties so that takes away Siggy’s upside.

For tournaments on both sides, targeting the strikers might work out, for Everton, Calvert-Lewin and Rooney are pickable and likely to be underowned. For Bournemouth, Wilson or Defoe (whichever of the pair starts) should get a look from a few fantasy players considering their recent goal scoring of the team.

Huddersfield vs Burnley

After a tough run of dropping points in three straight matches, Burnley will be looking to get back to winning as they visit Huddersfield this week in the last match of 2017. Burnley are a solid defensive team that is top five in the Premier League. They are even better on the road as they have allowed the third least goals of any team in the league. A Matchup with Huddersfield should further cement their position as right behind Arsenal for a top six slot.

Burnley’s defensive prowess certainly eliminates any Huddersfield options from the table when it comes to fantasy production. The exception may be the defense and goalkeeping, but Burnley doesn’t do a lot of attacking in their own right to really warrant a goalkeeper selection.

As mentioned, Burnley don’t attack much either, as they enjoy keeping the ball in the midfield and slowly building up and striking at the opponent through precision rather than a barrage of shots. That limits the upside of almost all the Burnley players. And on a slate with seven matches and at least four of them expected to feature plenty of goals, I wouldn’t really spend a lot of salary on a player from this matchup.

Newcastle vs Brighton

This matchup is between a team that has scored just six goals at home all season hosting a team that has scored five goals on the road all season. The odds for this one being a fire cracker are very slim. Indeed, the oddsmakers put the over/under on this one set at just 2, which is very low for soccer. Nevertheless, there are actually some options from the home team here. Specifically Dwight Gayle who takes a lot of shots, even though he’s not able to put them on target. We can also look to Matt Ritchie who can deliver crosses and isn’t priced terribly high for his position.

Brighton on the other hand aren’t consistent enough to warrant a regular selection. Pascal Gross provides some fantasy options as he is a good crosser of the ball and is on set pieces for the seagulls. The team does not have a solid goal scorer on the books, and that is evidenced by their overall goal scoring prowess throughout the season.

Overall, this is a match that I can skip rostering any player from completely and not feel guilty about it.

High Floor Players

Player Name Team Opponent Crosses Corners Chances Created Open Play Crosses Shots
Ritchie NEW BHA 130 65 32 55 38
Mooy HUD BUR 127 63 30 51 19
Brady BUR HUD 123 67 26 45 24
De Bruyne MCI CPL 119 65 59 60 49
Groß BHA NEW 117 54 40 52 15
Shaqiri STK CHE 117 55 44 43 44
Cresswell WHU #N/A 116 37 23 62 7
Holebas WAT SWA 113 45 21 51 9
Albrighton LEI LIV 109 35 26 71 10
Eriksen TOT #N/A 106 57 47 46 48
Townsend CPL MCI 101 27 35 63 35
Sigurdsson EVE BOU 96 41 28 22 29
Cabaye CPL MCI 90 62 29 10 25
Olsson SWA WAT 88 1 9 88 8
Fabregas CHE STK 87 96 55 20 25
Carroll (Thomas) SWA WAT 85 40 25 27 14
Davies (Ben) TOT #N/A 79 30 29 55 13
Trippier TOT #N/A 78 24 25 53 4
Ward-Prowse SOT MUN 73 43 17 20 9
Young MUN SOT 72 16 16 56 14
Phillips (Matthew) WBA ARS 72 21 12 45 13
Cleverley WAT SWA 71 42 28 26 14
Gudmundsson BUR HUD 71 19 23 47 27
Ozil ARS WBA 70 55 59 16 28
Cedric SOT MUN 69 0 12 68 13
Bertrand SOT MUN 68 24 20 46 13
Mahrez LEI LIV 67 39 30 22 44
Knockaert BHA NEW 65 21 20 34 20
Daniels BOU EVE 63 11 14 59 10
Nyom WBA ARS 63 0 9 63 2
Mata MUN SOT 62 26 26 34 14
Solly March BHA NEW 61 7 10 55 13
Rashford MUN SOT 61 24 18 35 41
Alonso CHE STK 60 0 20 60 40
Masuaku WHU #N/A 60 0 9 60 7
Tadic SOT MUN 59 9 31 51 23
Ibe BOU EVE 59 28 21 31 22
Brunt WBA ARS 57 37 21 15 6
Silva MCI CPL 56 29 41 29 36
Oxlade-Chamberlain LIV LEI 56 14 17 41 26
Lanzini WHU #N/A 56 38 24 9 19
Milner LIV LEI 53 24 16 35 14
Smith (Tommy) HUD BUR 53 0 13 53 6
Valencia MUN SOT 52 0 7 52 11
Coutinho LIV LEI 51 46 38 13 50
Ward (Stephen) BUR HUD 50 0 10 50 4
Fraser BOU EVE 50 16 12 31 12
Gray (Demarai) LEI LIV 50 20 13 32 21

High Ceiling Players

Player Name Team Opponent Shots Shots On Target Goals Dribbles Take Ons Assists
Kane TOT #N/A 116 43 18 68 59 1
Salah LIV LEI 75 39 15 86 77 5
Richarlison WAT SWA 65 12 5 68 62 4
Lukaku MUN SOT 60 27 10 39 37 4
Sanchez ARS WBA 59 24 7 59 58 3
Aguero MCI CPL 59 24 12 45 43 4
Morata CHE STK 53 23 10 41 35 4
Coutinho LIV LEI 50 15 7 62 57 6
De Bruyne MCI CPL 49 23 6 44 42 9
Ince (Thomas) HUD BUR 49 15 1 39 37 0
Sterling (Raheem) MCI CPL 49 19 13 66 57 4
Eriksen TOT #N/A 48 20 5 27 25 5
Choupo-Moting STK CHE 44 13 4 78 68 4
Lacazette ARS WBA 44 21 8 34 33 3
Shaqiri STK CHE 44 17 4 37 33 5
Firmino LIV LEI 44 18 9 40 39 4
Mahrez LEI LIV 44 19 6 95 88 5
Xhaka ARS WBA 42 10 1 14 14 3
Rashford MUN SOT 41 12 4 70 59 5
Ramsey ARS WBA 40 17 3 25 22 6
Rodriguez WBA ARS 40 14 2 37 30 0
Alonso CHE STK 40 14 5 18 16 1
Ritchie NEW BHA 38 7 0 19 15 5
Zaha CPL MCI 37 14 4 120 98 1
Alli TOT #N/A 37 8 4 69 51 6
Silva MCI CPL 36 12 5 33 32 8
Son TOT #N/A 36 15 6 55 48 3
Calvert-Lewin EVE BOU 36 14 3 32 29 4
Jesus MCI CPL 36 21 8 22 19 2
Townsend CPL MCI 35 8 1 91 78 3
Joselu NEW BHA 35 15 3 9 9 1
Hazard CHE STK 34 20 5 101 95 2
Pogba MUN SOT 33 10 3 38 35 5
Rondón WBA ARS 32 11 3 40 36 0
Diouf STK CHE 32 8 4 23 16 1
Vardy LEI LIV 32 15 8 42 38 1
Pedro CHE STK 31 14 3 25 24 2
Jordan Ayew SWA WAT 31 9 2 57 51 2
Arnautovic WHU #N/A 30 12 5 32 30 0
King (Joshua) BOU EVE 30 9 2 86 76 2
Redmond SOT MUN 30 9 0 46 43 3
Sane MCI CPL 30 12 6 65 62 8
Sigurdsson EVE BOU 29 10 3 20 19 2
Abraham SWA WAT 29 9 4 42 37 1
Ozil ARS WBA 28 9 4 30 29 5
Benteke (Christian) CPL MCI 28 11 1 13 12 1
Rooney EVE BOU 27 14 10 16 16 2
Gudmundsson BUR HUD 27 8 0 33 30 5

High floor defenders

Player Name Team Opponent Headed shots shots interceptions clearances tackles Final 3rd Touches
Bellerín ARS WBA 0 21 15 46 43 570
Alonso CHE STK 9 40 28 55 46 504
Valencia MUN SOT 0 11 21 56 44 459
Bertrand SOT MUN 2 13 23 36 30 436
Walker MCI CPL 0 7 14 38 33 434
Kolasinac ARS WBA 4 15 15 34 40 411
Daniels BOU EVE 0 10 24 65 44 400
Trippier TOT WHU 0 4 8 32 46 382
Cedric SOT MUN 0 13 12 54 34 343
Davies (Ben) TOT WHU 0 13 9 38 29 331
Holebas WAT SWA 0 9 19 47 40 327
Olsson SWA WAT 0 8 16 54 30 325
Moses CHE STK 1 15 9 17 25 319
Naughton SWA WAT 0 6 40 87 83 312
Cresswell WHU TOT 0 7 21 62 24 298
Smith (Tommy) HUD BUR 0 6 23 50 31 294
Gibbs WBA ARS 2 8 18 60 29 287
Femenía WAT SWA 0 4 25 25 35 285
Masuaku WHU TOT 0 7 15 20 51 278
Milner LIV LEI 0 14 7 14 42 270
Azpilicueta CHE STK 1 7 26 70 58 261
Zabaleta WHU TOT 0 0 37 83 86 255
Schlupp CPL MCI 2 14 20 64 64 249
Robertson LIV LEI 0 8 13 21 13 244
Pieters STK CHE 0 0 38 51 56 241

High Ceiling central defenders

Player Name Team Opponent Headed shots shots interceptions clearances tackles Final 3rd Touches
Duffy BHA NEW 12 14 28 161 21 51
Mee BUR HUD 12 14 24 140 32 37
Dann CPL MCI 11 19 24 98 21 57
Otamendi MCI CPL 10 23 31 64 44 140
Tarkowski BUR HUD 10 12 30 146 41 43
Shawcross STK CHE 10 15 17 121 23 33
Alonso CHE STK 9 40 28 55 46 504
van Dijk SOT MUN 8 11 29 81 12 53
Yoshida SOT MUN 8 18 31 91 22 48
Clark NEW BHA 8 9 10 104 20 39
Williams (Ashley) EVE BOU 8 10 30 136 27 22
Dunk BHA NEW 7 15 37 116 36 52
Hegazi WBA ARS 7 9 33 147 44 46
Aké BOU EVE 7 9 27 138 38 38
Lascelles NEW BHA 7 8 11 89 15 30
Mawson SWA WAT 7 10 12 136 22 29
Kabasele WAT SWA 6 7 27 123 41 34
Evans WBA ARS 6 7 31 74 36 29
Christensen CHE STK 6 7 18 56 18 23
Matip LIV LEI 5 9 24 62 27 45
Morgan LEI LIV 5 7 14 100 27 35
Schindler HUD BUR 5 6 41 134 63 32
Fonte WHU #N/A 5 8 14 37 15 32
DSanchez TOT #N/A 5 7 11 76 28 25
Tomkins CPL MCI 5 9 27 54 31 23

About the Author

hambazaza
Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza)

At the intersection of sports and mathematics you’ll find Hesh Hambazaza as a staunch believer that numbers really can explain everything. Along with working as a RotoGrinders editor, Hambazaza contributes to RotoGrinders in Soccer coverage as well as a contributor to RotoAcademy highlighting Vegas as a useful tool. When he’s not devoting countless hours to DFS a week, Hambazaza can be found working as a father, husband and electrical engineer on various NASA projects.