EPL Grind Down: Matchweek 23

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2018-04-04 01:47:44

With the return of EPL after a week off, most of the teams are coming in with a set of fresh legs after the very busy holiday fixtures that saw them go through anywhere between a game every 3-4 days for a period of close to six weeks. We now enter the second half of the season and teams will begin to jockey for their final position in the table and every match here matters, especially for the teams vying for key positions in the table.

This week, the Grind Down will focus on plays in every game rather than on team breakdown, this means that you’ll see a breakdown of position by position within a match in an attempt to cater more to DFS needs. If you have questions then feel free to leave a message here or on twitter to let me know. Good luck.

The Odds

The Top Six

There are just two top six teams in action on Saturday, so we’ll break down each match independently.

Chelsea vs Leicester

Goalkeepers – A goalkeeper projection really comes down to the situation that the team is in. This is usually a breakdown of the team itself. In this match, Chelsea should control possession and threaten the Foxes early and often. I also expect them to break through regularly and perhaps score as many as three or four goals. This puts Leicester Keeper out of consideration for me as he’s on the road, and thus Kasper Schmeichel, despite his cheap price tag on DK isn’t a consideration for me. And him being on the road keeps him away from consideration on FD.

Chelsea’s Keeper Thibaut Courtois is too expensive on DraftKings where he won’t see nearly as many saves as we’d like to warrant that price tag. He’s likely to end up on a clean sheet and win for just 10 points, but if Leicester get a single shot and score a goal, then he’s down to just 3 points, and maybe -2 if Chelsea fail to get a win. The risk/upside for Courtois is bad, which leads me to lean away from Chelsea’s keeper option.

Defenders – For Chelsea, the central defenders carry little value on FanDuel where the scoring allows you to accumulate defensive stats as they aren’t expected to be on the backfoot much in this match. Since Chelsea plays with three central defenders, I wouldn’t consider any of them except in GPPs, and in that case, Azpilicueta would be my pick. For Leicester, Dragovic presents an interesting play to consider in the defense. The Austrian hasn’t gotten consistent minutes in his career, but when he does get them he’s a capable defender that can load up defensive stats like tackles, interceptions and blocked shots.

Midfielders – Chelsea plays in a 3-5-1-1 formation with their two wing backs dropping back if necessary. In this case, I don’t think they’ll drop back except to mark the likes of Riyadh Mahrez, so this limits Marcos Alonso’s involvement in attack and in turn means that whichever midfielder plays close to Alonso should push forward unabashed. This should play well for Fabregas as he’s going to push forward on the left side of the pitch and play with Hazard, Morata and Bakayoko in the attack. Fabregas makes for the most logical cash play, but he’s still not a cash game player as he doesn’t provide the fantasy stability that we require of our cash plays. Hazard is intriguing for his ability to go off at any time as he takes penalties for this team and free kicks and in general is their most skilled player on the ball. I stay away from Bakayoko since he’s not capable of shooting the ball into an open net 9 times out of 10.

For Leicester, in any other matchup I’d consider Mahrez and Albrighton, but this week I’ll relegate Mahrez to tournament plays only, and Albrighton to tournament play, and even then I think there are many better options for the salary range he provides.

Forwards – Morata and Vardy are the two contenders here, and I believe Morata ends up with the higher fantasy score as well as the most likely to score a goal. They both suffer from the same floor which is 0, but Morata has the stronger supporting staff. He’s also one of the top plays for tournaments on the week. Vardy gets the same consideration that Mahrez does.

Tottenham vs Everton

Goalkeepers – The same situation as the previous matchup where the home keeper is too big of a favorite and either has a high price tag or little upside that he doesn’t warrant a selection. In this case, that home keeper is Hugo Lloris. His opposite, Jordan Pickford, has been playing well recently, but faces a tough challenge with Harry Kane coming in, and having conceded twice in his last three matches. Two in the EPL and one in the FA cup. Neither of these keepers appears as an appealing option in this slate.

Defenders – Tottenham’s full backs always carry potential as in recent weeks the full backs have gotten a large number of crosses and fantasy points. On DK, the full back score line reads as 15, 11,11,8,11,9. So regardless of who gets the start, the full back on DK should be counted on for close to double digit fantasy points. The projection this week is for Aurier and Davies to get the start. Davies is more expensive, but also more reliable, and both have the potential to get involved in the attack. For Everton, none of their defenders are interesting to me. Though there is one development that should matter to us, the absence of Michael Keane in this matchup should weaken the Evertonian defenses just enough to increase the likelihood of a Tottenham route.

Midfielders – Christian Eriksen is a top option in all formats. Especially on a team that should control the pace of play and make the opponent defend a lot. Eriksen takes free kicks, corners and sets up the attack. He loves to shoot from outside and will pressure the defenses. Another Spurs midfielder to consider is Son who seems to find the back of the net every so often. His speed should work well for him as he takes advantage of the space opened up by the presence of Kane on the pitch next to him leaving the defenders forced to leave him wide open. For Everton, Wayne Rooney is always a tournament play, and Gylfi Sigurdsson is a good play to consider in all formats. However, given the extreme odds against Everton in this week’s matchup, I don’t think I’ll be looking for any Toffees in my lineups.

Forwards – Everton are welcoming a new forward this week, and he may well get the start. Tosun is a solid attacker who has Champions League experience and has 4 goals this season where he saw his team finish atop their group G table. When Tosun got the start in the UCL contests this season he had 4 goals, 2 assists and a total of 11 shots in 5 matches. If Tottenham show weakness in defense, then Tosun will look to exploit it. He’s a solid play in tournaments but I wouldn’t put too much stock into his ability to pay dividends in his first EPL match. For Tottenham, I am expecting a Kane goal and anywhere between 3 and 7 shots with at least 2-3 of them being on target. This makes Harry Kane a top play on the day for both cash and tournaments

The Non-Top-Six

Crystal Palace vs Burnley

Goalkeepers – The home team in this situation is another team that is favored, though this match is more even than the previous two. Wayne Hennessey is facing a Burnley squad that relies on a solid defense and doesn’t pressure the opponent heavily, instead relies on mistakes on counter attacks and a solid defense to get their points. For this season, Hennessey isn’t really on my radar. However, the other side of the pitch will feature Nick Pope who is priced fairly on FD at $5,500 but really cheap on DK at $4,200, making him a decent selection on both sites. He’s playing away from home so he’s not an all-in option, but he’s in my top 3 plays on the week because of the potential of a Palace team that can shoot a lot and a cheap price tag that could translate to a lot of potential.

Defenders – The only thing to consider here for DFS purposes will be which defenders start for Burnley. If they get Tarkowski and Mee in the lineup that means that Burnley can execute their game plan as they like. If they are not in the lineup, then this elevates the Palace attacking players. As for putting them in your lineups, perhaps putting Burnley defenders in your FD lineups has potential to pay off if they manage to get blocks and tackles, but their upside is limited and their price is too high.

Midfielders – The most notable midfielders in this matchup are Johann Berg-Gudmundsson for Burnley and Wilfried Zaha for Palace. Zaha carries a lot of potential in this matchup and makes for a good tournament and cash option. Gudmundsson is a lesser option. Burnley have played worse in recent weeks though they were faced with a rough schedule. Palace have also improved which makes this a particularly interesting matchup for the implications it carries. Burnley’s game plan however is to sit back and allow palace to do what they like, which means that the likes of Zaha, McCarthur, and Cabaye will get plenty of touches in the final third and that could translate to fantasy points. I rank them in that previous order.

Forwards – If Zaha can get the crosses he wants in there, then Benteke should be able to get his head on some of those crosses and potentially score a goal. That makes Benteke a good tournament option. If Bakary Sako also gets the start then he’s another option to consider and a more likely goal scorer than Benteke in my opinion. For Burnley, their striker is Ashley Barnes who isn’t a reliable forward option. Overall, these two teams are not very offensive minded or efficient in goal scoring. They combine to average less than 2 goals a game and roughly six shots on target per game. I wouldn’t the forwards from either team confidently.

Huddersfield vs West Ham

Goalkeepers – Huddersfield are one of the few teams that is overmatched in every game they play. That ultimately leads to their goalkeeper being a good option as he faces plenty of shots from the opposition and in DFS saves = points. West Ham have some offensive minded players that take a lot of shots, but the downside is that they don’t convert a lot of those onto the target. But Lossl is a good goalkeeping option this week and his price tag of $4,500 on FD and $4,900 on DK make him an excellent choice on both sides. As for Adrian for West Ham, I don’t trust that Huddersfield can threaten enough to make him save a lot of shots, thus, he’s out of my calculations this week.

Defenders – There aren’t a lot of defenders here that provide any offensive boost which rules out the potential options on DraftKings. However, on FanDuel, the central defenders for Huddersfield should provide plenty of DFS points. Christopher Schindler priced at $6,500 provides an excellent option that has potential to reach 30 FD points and has the ability to do it consistently. This match is a good opportunity for him to continue that trend.

Midfielders – For Huddersfield, the only options to really consider on most cases are Aaron Mooy and Tom Ince, but neither of them are worthy of cash game consideration this week. They are decent tournament options however. For West Ham however, if Michail Antonio is back then him and Marko Arnautovic make for a good combination of players that can score goals and threaten the opponent’s defenses.

Forwards – The Huddersfield forwards aren’t reliable so I rule them out from DFS contention, but for West Ham, they have plenty of options between Ayew, Arnautovic, and Chicharito that can all score goals in the right circumstances. None of them are cash options, but I would consider them all for tournaments. On the road that lessens the expectations a little bit, but I would put Arnautovic as the top options of this lot.

Newcastle vs Swansea

Goalkeepers – Lukasz Fabianski is probably one of the more popular goalkeepers for DFS and for good reason. He plays on a team that is not very good but he’s very capable of getting several saves in one match making him a good option every week. His price tag this week on DK is a very cheap $4,100 while being slightly more expensive on FD at $5,000. Despite being away from home, I like his chances at double digit points at a discount. That combination makes him the top goalkeeper on the slate. His opposite, Darlow, isn’t as appealing with his higher price tag and with Swansea being an anemic offense.

Defenders – American international Deandre Yedlin will likely get the start here for the toons and should be a good option for daily fantasy. Yedlin is priced at $4,800 on DK and $5,500 on FD. Those are fair prices and should be usable on both sites for tournaments. For FanDuel you can also consider Federico Fernandez of Swansea as a central defender that can rack up the defensive stats and could be a good options for DFS as well. He’s priced a bit higher on FD and thus won’t be highly owned but I like his potential for 20+ FD points.

Midfielders – For Newcastle Matt Ritchie is one of the top cash options on the week with the potential for crosses and shots and chances created in an easy matchup with Swansea that should allow him to showcase his skills. On the other side, Swansea wide midfielders should provide crosses. In recent weeks it’s been Sam Clucas and Nathan Dyer, but Ki and Carroll are also options if they start out wide.

Forwards – I would stay away from Swansea forwards without much regret as they are not a strong offensive squad. For Newcastle, you can consider Ayoze Perez and Dwight Gayle and may get some reward. But again, neither of these teams are solid offensive teams and thus won’t provide much offensive fantasy goodness.

Watford vs Southampton

Goalkeepers – Watford are favorites in this one, and Southampton are not a team that I like to target for fantasy. I don’t trust their keeper to make lots of saves which keeps me off of him. Watford also won’t be facing any tough shots on target so I don’t think their keeper is a player to consider.

Defenders – There are not any defenders I would consider for cash games from either team. For GPPs I would consider cheap defenders that fit in your lineup, but there isn’t one in particular that I like.

Midfielders – For Southampton, I would think about Boufal as a pivot play away from other highly owned players. There is a stigma against Southampton, but Boufal, and his teammate Ward-Prowse could be potential goal scorers or assist players. Over his last few games, Boufal has had several shots for his team and is capable of scoring. His price has gone up on DK from $3.9K up to $5.9K in just four matches. For Watford, Tom Cleverly is a solid cash option with his ability to deliver crosses and create chances. I would consider him for cash games if the price fits.

Forward – Richarlison is the key player here that everybody will consider out of this match, and he’s a solid option that would fit in with another high priced forward. What Richarlison provides is shots, potential goals and overall skill that can translate to fantasy points in any matchup, and especially in this one against the Saints at home.

For Southampton, whoever starts in the forward spot should be a good option to consider in tournaments but nothing else as they are likely to be subbed out at 60 minutes and will only take 2-3 shots and may not score any of them.

West Brom vs Brighton

Goalkeepers – With West Brom being the home team here, they are facing a Brighton team that shouldn’t threaten them too much and thus I don’t think that their goalkeeper, Ben Foster will face enough shots to make him a real fantasy option. But he should come away with the win and maybe a save or two. Mat Ryan for Brighton is not a goalkeeper option I would consider.

Defenders – Neither team really relies on the full backs for offensive threats and that limits the upside of the fantasy performances of any of the defenders. Neither team is a strong offensive juggernaut either, thus making the defenders on the other side have low upside in defensive stats and thus, I would recommend not taking any defenders from this matchup.

Midfielders – Chris Brunt and McClean are two midfielders that can provide fantasy outputs in terms of crosses and chances created. Neither of them are extremely skilled offensive minded players, and West Brom is still not able to get a lot of fantasy production despite the change in managers this season. The team won’t provide a lot of regular DFS production. As for Brighton, Knockaert and Gross are the two most likely fantasy producing players for DFS purposes.

Forwards – West Brom have the upper hand offensively on paper with Rondon and Rodriguez as the front two in a 4-4-2 rotation. I still would likely look elsewhere for my DFS teams as neither of them are reliable in a way that befits their price tags.