EPL Grind Down Matchweek 26

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2018-04-04 01:47:43

The January transfer deadline has come and gone and the Premier League landscape has changed!

Alexis Sanchez is now at Manchester United. Pierre Emerick Aubameyang has made the record breaking move from Borussia Dortmund to the Premier League and Arsenal. Chelsea have shored up their line with the addition of Olivier Giroud from Arsenal and Emerson Palmieri from Roma. Both players give the team depth and the ability to rotate Morata and Marcos Alonso and gives Antonio Conte options. Tottenham also added a midfield signing in Lucas Moura from PSG who should provide some options for the Spurs outside of Son Heung-Min.

There are some other mid-table signings that are worth considering for fantasy purposes, but we’ll break them all down when necessary. Slimani to Newcastle, Andre Ayew uniting with his brother in Swansea are the two obvious ones, but the below the radar signings could end up being Sorloth to Crystal Palace and Hugill to West Ham.

This week the Grind Down will do something different. I’ll break down the games with the top six teams as these are the ones we’re likely to want to stack up, and then I’ll give a position by position breakdown of the rest of the matches with a focus on which players and teams to target without going into excruciating detail.

The Odds

The Top Six

There are just two top six teams in action on Saturday, so we’ll break down each match independently.

Manchester United vs Huddersfield

Goalkeepers – There will be a common theme as we break down the goalkeeping options this week. They all suck. Neither of these keepers are very cheap and Huddersfield are likely to concede 3-4 goals this week making them a poor choice of keeper to target. While I believe that Jonas Lossl is a solid keeper in his own right, I don’t think this is a week to see if he can keep United from running up the scoreline.

Defenders – There are two types of defenders to consider. Wing backs/full backs on attacking teams, and central defenders on defending teams. United’s full back situation is not really conducive to fantasy purposes. The full backs regularly roam up and down the flanks, but they tend to work the ball into the middle on the ground which limits the opportunities to create chances or deliver crosses. Limiting both of their fantasy production. In this case, this week reports indicate that Valencia and Shaw might be getting the start, and I would plan on ignoring them for DFS purposes unless you want to take a flier on a tournament.

On the other side of the ball, Christopher Schindler is a top defensive play on FanDuel with his superb numbers on the defensive end. He’s a top 10 player in tackles, blocks, interceptions and Clearances. His teammate Zanka also provides a good amount of clearances and Interceptions and both are in play on FanDuel despite their high prices.

Midfielders – Paul Pogba makes for an interesting player to consider this week. He SHOULD have a very good game going against Huddersfield Town at home. His last time playing at home against a team that was overmatched was against Stoke where he had 2 assists, created 4 chances and took two shots and delivered two crosses. He finished with 17 DK points, but more impressive was his 33.5 FanDuel points. With the addition of Sanchez, Pogba will likely want to push forward a little as he can find Sanchez who can be creative with the ball. The biggest fear is how much Pogba will need to sit back and defend in the future with Sanchez on the team since Sanchez is not the best at going back to stop the opponent’s attack. However, this isn’t a concern for this week against a Huddersfield team that should not threaten.

If Huddersfield do threaten, then I’d consider Aaron Mooy or Tom Ince the most likely to do the honors. Though I think that threat will be few and far between and taking one of them in your lineup means that you’ll be filling a roster spot with a player that will likely not threaten more than once or twice in the whole 90 minutes and that is negative EV.

Forwards – The juiciness of this match comes in the forwards. Alexis Sanchez and Romelu Lukaku are the sexy names and rightfully so. Sanchez provided an assist against Yoevil in the FA cup in his first match with the Red Devils. Now he makes his EPL debut with his new team and his home debut at Old Trafford. I think he combines with Lukaku to score and assist. You can also try to pivot away from the top two plays and go with Martial who will spot on the right flank and likely take advantage of the opening from the defenders’ focus on the other side of the pitch to get himself on the score sheet.

Overall, I suspect this match ends in a 3-4 goal barrage from United and that the likely suspects get in on the action. For cash purposes I believe that Sanchez is the right pick given his potential to take corners or cross into the middle.

Arsenal vs Everton

Goalkeepers – Much like the first match, the home team in this case is a big favorite and Petr Cech is pretty expensive for a goalkeeper. For Everton, they are likely to fail to make much of an impact and will be threatened repeatedly on defense. Ozil, Aubameyang and Lacazette should be a powerful trio on offense to make some noise. All that said, this should be a match heavy in goals so naturally I don’t think the goalkeepers are worth considering on either side.

Defenders – For the full backs, Nacho Monreal and Hector Bellerin could be options for DFS. They’re priced at $5,700 and $5,100 respectively on DK which makes them out of our range of target plays on the night, but if you want to spend up and get exposure to this match then they wouldn’t be bad options. For Everton, I would suggest Mangala on FanDuel but he’s not in the player pool as he just joined the team. Otherwise I’d ignore the remaining defenders from Everton who are likely to be pinned in their own half for the majority of the match.

Midfielders – Mesut Ozil should start seeing his numbers go up in fantasy circles the remainder of the season given the presumed resurgence of Arsenal. The team will be hoping that exchanging Aubameyang and Mkhitaryan for Alexis Sanchez should see improved performances. Arsene Wenger will rely on his German playmaker to make the magic happen. Look for Ozil to up his chances created numbers and potentially get assists from here on out to the end of the season. Another option for the Gunners in the midfield should be the aforementioned Mkhitaryan who slots in as an effective on the ball play maker who could end up being a major part of the team plans moving forward. The biggest concern is that now the team has too many pieces in the attacking midfield and will have to sit someone on the bench to start the matches. The corollary to that is that somebody will be removed from play around 60 minutes leaving their fantasy owner wishing for more.

From Everton, Theo Walcott will look to face his former team straight away and revenge games are a thing in soccer. I expect that he’ll get the start and makes for a decent option on this Everton squad.

Forwards – Depending on who gets the start, Arsenal striker will be a good play to target this week. I believe it will be Aubameyang but I’ve seen projections of Lacazette starting. Lacazette gives me pause as he’s had several games where he’s provided nothing at all if he doesn’t score a goal. Either way, whoever starts will likely sub out at 60 minutes regardless of their goal scoring or lackthereof. I expect that there will be goals however.

For Everton, Niasse is a cheap option that could take advantage of an Arsenal defense that is relatively weak for their reputation.

The Best of the Rest

Forwards

Jamie Vardy, Leicester, $7,500 DK, $10,000 FD – Vardy has the highest anytime goal scorer odds of any player among players not playing for Manchester United or Arsenal. What tips the odds in Vardy’s favor even more is the fact that Riyad Mahrez will not suit up for this match after his failed transfer bid to Manchester City. What Vardy can look forward to is being on penalty kick duty and the freedom to roam around. He’ll also benefit from the increased production from Albrighton and Gray in the absence of Mahrez should see more balls making their way to Vardy.

Callum Wilson, Bournemouth, $6,400 DK, $9,000 FD – Wilson had himself a game against Chelsea in the midweek fixtures. I expect that he’ll keep it going again this match against a weak Stoke squad at home. Wilson has three goals and two assists in the month of January and has continued his solid play. Look for him to keep going through the month of February.

Midfielders

Pascal Gross, Brighton, $6,500 DK, $8,000 FD – Over the last four weeks Gross has a total number of crosses equal to 28 which ties him for fourth in the league. In that period he’s been heavily involved in the team’s offense, and though they haven’t been capable of scoring a lot of goals, they’re playing against West Ham this week who have the fourth worst defense in the premier league giving him ample opportunity to help his team score goals this week and potentially win a game at home.

Joel Ward-Prowse, Southampton, $8,500 DK, $6,500 FD – Ward-Prowse has been playing exceptionally well for a Southampton team that we normally don’t like to target, but his recent performances make him a solid pick if you have the salary to spare. His last three matches were all in double digit fantasy points on DK and I expect him to eclipse that total again this week.

Defenders

Ryan Bertrand, Southampton, $4,800 DK, $6,000 FD – In a rare twist of fate, I’m targeting another player from Southampton, but that should tell you all you need to know about the players available to pick from in this week’s EPL contests. What Bertrand provides is some crosses and plenty of touches in the final third in the last three weeks. Because of that he’ll be involved in the attack repeatedly this week.

Sam Byram, West Ham, $3,800 DK, $5,000 FD – Sam Byram is a cheap option on West Ham that should be heavily owned if he gets the start. At his cheap price you need just 7.5 points on DK to reach value and 15 points on FD. He had 6.8 points on DK last week after committing 3 fouls so he could have had a bigger point total and he had 27.5 points on FD so he’s more than capable of reaching value and the matchup this week inspires it similar to last week (against Crystal Palace)

Goalkeepers

Kasper Schmeichel, Leicester, $5,300 DK, $5,000 FD – As mentioned earlier, all goalkeepers are tough to target this week. Schmeichel is the pick of my random() function on Python so he gets the call here. Generally I prefer home keepers and ones that are underdogs, unfortunately, there aren’t any of those this week.