EPL Grind Down: Matchweek 29
The EPL season continues on and we have an interesting six-game slate on Saturday. Taking a quick glance at the table there are three distinct zones that teams have congregated in. In the first, Manchester City sit alone as they top the table with a 16 point lead over second place Manchester United and just 10 matches to go. They need just 14 points to guarantee the title and it is all but secured at this point.
In the second zone of the table, we have the remaining teams in the big six as Manchester United lead the way in 2nd place, Liverpool and Tottenham and Chelsea not far behind, while Arsenal are a distant sixth, but still far enough ahead of seventh place that I don’t think they are in danger of slipping down there. Finally, we have a final zone where the difference between 7th place and relegation in 18th is a mere 10 points. A three-game win streak could see a team like Swansea rise from relegation to right outside the top half of the table. That’s why these 14 teams all fall in the same category when it comes to analyzing the matches for this week.
Keeping all that in mind, we still have some clear distinctions between the teams as not all “minnows” are created equal, and the distribution of the points over the next 10 weeks will determine who falls out of the Premier League. The matches this week include two that feature a top six team, Liverpool and Tottenham are both at home, meaning that the majority of DFS players will look to stack them, but which ones do we want to really focus on? The Grind Down should help you narrow down that question. And then we’ll break down the remaining four matches to determine if there are any plays to consider out of there.
Tottenham vs Huddersfield
The betting odds for this match, predictably have Tottenham as a heavy favorite with the over/under set at 2.5 goals for the match. With a 3-0 match outcome the most likely result in favor of the Spurs.
Oddsmakers also have the most likely goal scorer from this bout as Harry Kane and Fernando Llorente as anytime scorers for this match. Heung-Min Son is a close third in terms of goal scoring odds.
Tottenham have a very big match against Juventus at home on Wednesday. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Pochettino decides to manage his players minutes with a bit more scrutiny. Alderweireld and Vertonghen are both questions with the former likely not playing this week and Vertonghen may return after missing the Crystal Palace match last week.
For DFS purposes the main player to target here will undoubtedly be Harry Kane. He leads the league in goals scored and is likely to be a very highly owned player. In fact, between him and Salah, I would recommend filling your team with them first, then finding value to fit around them.
For other players on this team, the likely front players will be Eriksen, Alli, Son behind Kane with Aurier and Davies in the wings. Taking any of those would be a decent move in tournaments, in cash I would stick with Son alone. Llorente would not start unless they play with 2 up front, but I don’t see why they would do that this weekend.
For Huddersfield, if you’re feeling adventurous, you can target their goalkeeper as he might see 5-7 shots on target away, but I don’t like taking away goal keepers as they tend to get hammered when going against strong competition.
Liverpool vs Newcastle
Salah is the mainstay here in this match as he’s been consistent for this team all season. However, I believe he might start slowing down soon, so I can see reason to fade him. For cash, there is no reason to do so, so I recommend fitting him in with Kane and then just making it work. Salah does provide potential for assists and chances created however, so he’s not a complete black hole if he doesn’t score a goal. The biggest concern with him however is that this is the late match and if he is rested in preparation for the Champions League match against Porto (where Liverpool go in with a 5-0 comfortable lead), then I can see it being tough to recover.
Other players from Liverpool to consider in the front are Firmino and Mane who both make some excellent tournament options if you venture away from Salah. They are cheaper on both FD and DK making them very appealing options. Salah should be close to 50% owned and thus easy to fade if you think he fails to score at least a brace or a goal and assist.
The full backs here are easy to consider since their prices are cheaper than Spurs full backs. Liverpool should be starting Alexander-Arnold and Robertson who are both $5,600 and $5,400 on DK respectively. On FD they are the same prices as the Tottenham fullbacks, so that advantage is lost there.
I would stay away from Newcastle in this one except for defensive players on FD as they could grab some defensive stats such as blocks, clearances and tackles. Specifically, consider Jamaal Lascalles who is priced at $7K on FD.
Southampton vs Stoke
The Saints are big favorites here against a Stoke team that is sitting in 19th place in the table but is only 1 point behind Southampton. At home this season S’oton have a -5 goal differential and have failed to win in their last seven matches. They have the second worst defense at home of any team and a below average offense. This doesn’t spell great for Pellegrino’s men as they will have to fix things if they are to stay in the Premier League next season.
Lucky for them, they’re facing a Stoke team that is winless in their last nine away matches and don’t look to be turning things around anytime soon.
The odds do suggest some goal scoring for the Saints, and if that does happen then the most likely goal scorer is Gabbiadini who scored the equalizer last week against Burnley.
Ward-Prowse is a potential option to target as is Nathan Redmond as both are occasionally on set pieces.
I tend to avoid Southampton for cash games however as there is little consistency week to week and that should not change this week.
For Stoke, you could try to go for some offensive players such as Shaqiri or Chuopo-Moting or Diouf. But really, none of them excite me in any way so I would probably skip over selecting players from Stoke altogether.
Leicester vs Bournemouth
This may be a sneaky match to consider stacking. Both these teams have been playing well and Leicester does have some quality players, but not a lot of DFS players stack them up even though they are capable of scoring three goals. Bournemouth have a relatively weak defense as they’ve allowed 12 goals in their last six matches and if you throw out their strange win against Chelsea, they’ve disappointed away most of the season.
For Leicester, targeting Mahrez, Vardy and Albrighton make for good options, there won’t be a lot of players on them. However, I wouldn’t do that in cash. In cash consider Albrighton only, but if Gray starts, it would be hard for me to not put him into my lineup considering his set piece duties and general skill that can translate to chances created and/or goals/assists.
On FanDuel consider taking Bournemouth defenders like Ake or Simon Francis as both of them can fill up defensive stats and neither of them are extremely expensive.
This is a match where I would take my goalkeeper as Kasper Schmeichel should be a decent option. If he sees any shots, he should be able to make the save, and if he doesn’t see many shots then he’s got a good opportunity at a clean sheet and win. His price is fair as well, as he’s cheaper than Karius and Lloris.
Watford vs West Bromwich Albion
WBA have been a dumpster fire this season and they are not getting better. They don’t play good defense and have shown no signs of improving. This makes stacking a team like Watford very feasible and there are savings to be found there. Pereyra is a cheap option that should get you at least 2x. Holebas is a good option on defense and Richarlison should contribute in this one as well.
The one player I would make sure to target however for GPPs from Watford is Troy Deeney who should start as a lone striker and has the ability to convert goals for this team. He’s also potentially on penalties in the right situation and against a weak team like West Brom is a decent option to consider as he’ll likely take 3-4 shots in this one. His price is also excellent for value as he’s priced at just $4,900 on DK and $7,500 on FD.
For West Brom, the true measure for their improvement will be whether they manage to limit Watford to just scoring a single goal. I don’t have faith in this team’s ability right now to turn things around and salvage their season before it’s all over, so they’ll likely roll over every match and give their opponents three easy points.
Swansea vs West Ham
The Swans are currently just outside the safe zone and are just three points behind West Ham who are sitting at 13th. That is to say, there is all to play for. Matches against fellow relegation candidates at home are must wins, which means for tournaments I would lean heavily on taking on some Swansea players. Chief among those are the Ayew brothers. Jordan Ayew has been consistent this season for this team and can get defensive stats which is rare for a striker. But he’s also capable of scoring goals for his team. His brother, Andre Ayew might get the start in this one and as an added narrative street consideration, he gets to go against his former team West Ham. I expect that both brothers will play well in this one and for DFS purposes, we all love narrative street.
On DK Jordan Ayew is priced a little bitmore than his brother at $5,900 vs $5,600, On FD the difference is even more pronounced as Jordan is priced at $9K and Andre is $7.5K.
Other players to consider in this matchup are Ki Sung-Yueng who has taken on corner kicks and someset piece responsibility for the Swans and even scored a goal in recent weeks.
For West Ham, Chicharito had scored two goals in two matches prior to the Liverpool match, Arnautovic has also been an option with goal scoring in recent weeks. For cash, Joao Mario has been the major crosser for this team and has the ability to put up cash game numbers in both FD and DK when given the opportunities. His only bad performance so far in a West Ham jersey came last week against Liverpool, but the matchup with Swansea should see a return to form from the Portuguese midfielder.